moonslav59

It can't hurt to have minor league depth, but I have this guy 25th to 30th on my pen rankings.

We could go over the tax line by signing Bregman & Scott and trade Mayer for Sean Murphy to become AL faves. 1. L Duran CF 2. R Bregman 3B 3. L Casas DH/1B 4. L Devers 3B/1B 5. R Murphy C 6. L Yoshida/R Refnsyder LF 7. R Campbell 2B 8. L Abreu/ R Rafaela RF 9. R Story SS Bench: Wong. DHam, Rafaela or Abreu and Ref or Yoshida SP: Crochet, Houck, Bello, Buehler, Giolito, Crawford RP: Scott, Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Wilson, Guerrero

With Anthony ML ready, and Campbell able to play OF, if needed, I'm not sure O'Neill was a good fit. If we go for a RHB OF'er, it would likely be a 1 year guy, like maybe Grichuk. Ideally, we add a plus D catcher or 3Bman who bats RH'd and has some power- the more: the better. Sean Murphy (via trade) or Bregman (FA) seem like possible choices, but at what cost. I still think our bbats will be fine, but I get the argument that we should seek "elite" batters and not settle on just being a top 10 offense, especially since our defense is bottom 10. We should seek to be a top 5 hitting team, while maybe moving the D up to middle tier, for now. However, I still have closer as out highest need. We've added, a lot, this winter, but IMO, we could be a top contender if we can fix 2-3 of our top 5 high need areas: 1. Closer 2. Catcher who is plus on D 3. RHB (Could fill our #2 or #5 need, too) 4. Another decent RP 5. 3B defense (1B D might be 6th) One addition, like Murphy or Bregman could fill 2 needs. Tanner Scott would fill our top need. Just one of these ideas might be enough: two of them would get me really excited about 2025.

We have added much more than it appears, and we also lost O'Neill, K Jansen, Pivetta, D Jansen and Martin. We don't need much, but I think I'd change "another reliever" to a "lockdown closer" and "cheap RHB" to a legit RHB- better if he can play plus D at C or 3B.

Maybe I'm just dreaming, but Bregman of Scott are possible. More likely, Estevez & Grichuk and we trade Abreu for a catcher.

I do think we get Bregman. I just wonder, "why him?" Of all the good players who were FAs after Price, this is the guy we target? I'm just really underwhelmed, despite the fact that adding him improves numerous weak areas on the team. I'm not for trading Casas for Arenado and Herrera, unless they take Yoshida +$8M x 3 from us. I was thinking Abreu, Cespedes and Fitts for Herrera & Helsley.

But how do you comp a guy who gets just 2 years of "FA market" type money vs one who gets 5?

I could see that. Maybe .320 35 120

I still think Bregman is not "the guy" who is the largest FA deal since Price in 2016. That being said, he checks 2- maybe 3 boxes off my top 6 highest needs list: 3. RHB (not the best RHB out there but fits the need) 5. 3B defense 6. 1B defense (assuming Devers is better than Casas at 1B D.) Is that worth $160M/6 or $180M/7? (You know what we spend on him means that it won't be spent, later.) Is this team better? Sign Scott & Grichuk and trade Abreu for Herrera. (It's way cheaper, shorter commitments and checks the 3 top boxes: 1. Closer 2. Catcher defense 3. RHB

Alcantara might be the closest comp. He was 25 when he signed. He had some success and under 500 IP, before signing. The differences: He was facing the first of 3 arb seasons and added 2 years of control. That's not a big difference, but going for 4 or more years after team control runs out is a pretty big step and should cost much more than the 2 years Alcantara got. The two years were at $17.3M, each. Would it have been a higher AAV had he got 4 years. What would be the "adjustment" for that? Now, take that adjusted number and index for inflation. Is $20M too low? Is $28M too high? Is about $25M about right? If you multiply Alcantara's $17.3 x 4, it would be about $70M- no adjustments. I'm not thinking $80M/4 is a proper adjusted number. There is a reason most arb players who extend only add 1-2 years, not 4-6. That is what really makes our suggested offers unique.

Both Devers and Casas hit so well, they far outweigh their poor defense. It's not even close. I think Casas is one healthy season away from being a 40-120 batter. Clearly 1B and 3B are not the reason we play .500 ball, but there is a way to keep their bats in the line-up, while greatly improving the corner IF defense. Corner IF defense may not be the highest priority or even top 5, but it should be something we consider fixing, if we can find a way to do it, without creating a new issue, or causing the net value of our team to get worse. I'm fine with keeping them where they are, if we address some other areas, adequately- like closer, catcher defense and a power RHB. Another RP'er might be my #4, but to me, corner IF is #5 and is high enough to consider finding ways to fix it, without losing the two bats- Devers and Casas from the line-up. i've discussed, over and over how the Yoshida at DH FT issue causes a major headache, when considering a Devers-Casas timeshare at 1B/DH, and maybe that's reason enough to just run back that part of the 2024 team.

To me, the main issue with Devers D is his arm accuracy. That is not such a big issue at 1B. No, he's not 6-4. No, we don't know how well he scoops bad throws, but he seems okay on grabbing hot shots and has shown decent range, at 3B. Maybe he turns out to be as bad as Casas on D. It's hard to imagine him being worse, but if he's even, he can share time with Casas at 1B and DH, assuming Yoshida is traded or plays LF (not ideal.) I have been saying this all winter long, and for years have been saying we should move him or think about it. I'm pretty sure I was one of the first posters to be in favor of moving him off 3B, but I'm not sure on that. I am sure I have talked about moving him off 3B for over 3 years.

Signing Vlad is one thing, but I'm not trading value for a guy I have to pay $450M to, next winter.

Be serious. You know how long I have been saying move devers off 3B. You've mocked me for that for years. Now, you ask if I just figured it out?

No- never said we did. The idea is to try to get better by first identifying your highest need areas, and then to try to fix a few. It's not rocket science. Of course we can still win with Devers at 3B, and 3B D is not our highest need ara.

The lack of MLB experience makes Yamo sort of a comp, but he does have way more IP. The age is closer for Yamo than some others. Nobody is saying Crochet should get $324M/12, so we realize the comp is not equal, but it can be used as a scale to try and better figure out about how much Crochet should get. No matter where you look for a comp, some sort of adjustment has to be made, for age, more or less arb years remaining, recent success and IP numbers and more. No match comes close, so maybe trying to use the comp method is not the way to go.

Since he might get $20M in arbs for 2025+2026, you are really giving him about a $150M/4 extension. That is extremely high. I was thinking $150M/6 starting in 2027, and add the $20M for 2025-2026 arb buy outs, and it would be $170M/8. I'd go up to $180 or maybe even 190M/8 starting in 2025- knowing full well it is a huge risk and unprecedented for anyone close to his current profile. That basically comes to $180M/6 or $25-$28M a year for the after arb years. I can see how that looks way too high to many of you, and it looks close to full FA value for a proven SP'er, but his contract would end at around age 30-32 and not be starting there.

Not easy. We have been talking about this for months. We could pay $$12M a year out of the $18M and maybe still not find a taker.

This is exactly what many do. They extend to get 1-2 more years of guaranteed money, in case the get hurt or decline, but set it up so they still get their big chance to enter the FA market a reasonable age. Trying to extend Crochet a bit farther will and should cost more than just 1-2 years of added control. If we get Crochet to sign a 6 year deal, starting with and buying out the 2025 salary and the 2026 arb year, he'd still be a FA at just age 30. He can still get a hefty desal like Burnes and Fried, assuming he does well and shows durability. Not many pitchers had the chance to sign a 6 year extension at age 25 and still have the opening for an even bigger payday at age 30. He'll be set for life, even if he ends up sucking and getting no more deals after this one. His downside is that if he's great for the Sox in '25 and '26, he could have signed for way more than what our extension will be, but that the gamle from his perspective. The Sox, would be taking the bigger risk, of course. If he gets hurt or sucks, we are stuck with a 6 year deal.

Good stuff. It is really hard finding an apples to apples situation. There is always some sort of major difference: age, arb years remaining when extended, amount of IP under their belt, injuries and more. Berrios was 27 in 2021 and had 850 IP. His last arb was going to be 2022, so the NOV '21 signing bought out just 1 arb year. While Crochet will be 27, when his arbs are done, it's not the same as Berrios, and his IP'd are way less. I'm not sure about their injury comp. Berrios did get $131M/7, and with inflation that might be something like $160-170M/7, now and maybe more in 2 years. Alcantara signed NOV '21, as well, but his case is much different. His $56M/5 looks like Bello's. Sandy had just finished his pre-arb years and had 3 arb years bought out, and added 2 years of control. He was 25, like Crochet but had almost 500 IP. Finding comps is a useful way to try and set a value, but this case seems too unique to follow that method. Comparing him to Yamamoto is too far off, too. The IP thing always comes back to make Crochet's future value equation much more speculative. His injury situation beats nobody in these comps. His age does for most. Judging his current level of skills is also not a sure thing, and who can say his stuff is the same as Yamo, Alcantara, Berrios, Strider, Strasburg and others mentioned, recently. He does look better than Bello, who got $55M/6 way before his arbs were even starting.

Vlad is a beast of a hitter, and should age well. It still shocks me to see he turns just 26, soon. To me, it's all about the money, and the fact that we already have devers signed to $313M and both fit the 1B/DH profile, which to me give very limited positional value. I'd love his RH'd bat paired with Devers. It could be Manny/Papi-esque. I'm just not sure we should tie up $75M a year on two 1B/DH types, when we already have an $18M x 3 DH only guy on the roster. Now, we are talking almost $97M on 3 DHs. Knowing how cheap JUH has become, there won't be any money left for other higher importance positions.

Good thing they shut him down: it really extended his career! LOL

Yes, we are told again and again, why can't we be more like LAD, then that extending Crochet like nobody has ever done before is a bad idea.

And, when someone is months away from their big payday, will they tell the team about a sore arm?

Starting an exploratory committee on exploring options.