moonslav59

There are still some really good players out there, but many don't fit the Sox needs or budget, too well. MLBTR Top 50 still left: 3. Bregman 7. Alonso 8. Flaherty 9. Santander 14. T Scott 16. Profar 22. Estevez 25. Heaney 28. Pivetta 31. Quintanna, 33. Scherzer, 41. Gibson 34. Minter 38. Yates 42. Kahnle 43. H-S Kim, 49. Bader, 50. Turnull 47. Robertson Honorable Mention: Grichuk Jansen, Martin, Sewald, Finnegan

The VTek case was an interesting one. He kinda got screwed in that last contract.

It's a simple question, ut you don't have to answer. If he was a FA, now what do you think he'd be worth? How's this, would you be happy, sad of inbetween, if they signed him to an $20M x 5 year deal as a FA?

Good point, and he too was moved to the pen, at least once.

Why can't you answer? Of course the amount might change in 2 years, depending on how he does, but if he's worth $20M, now, I do not think it's absurd to offer him $20M starting 2 years from now and going forward.

Some was perception and how Covid brought the market down, but it does make it sting more, knowing we may not have been too far away from getting a yes.

I think another factor is how the Sox determine a player's value, and they seem very firm on whatever amount they come up with. We see it happen with some FAs, where our offer seems way lower, and there was no evidence we ever move beyond the initial offer on many. The Soto talks seemed different, but we are not even sure what sort of offers we made or increased. I think we feel like we know the precise value of our own players, and it often seems low. We don't seem to budge and often come across as stubborn and ungrateful. We have seen a lot of really good players walk as FAs, and to be honest, I think we have gotten more right than wrong, in terms of knowing when to "move on." We missed on a few, and some did well (Beltran, Lowe...), after leaving, but maybe was still not a mistake (Damon?) We have also traded some big names away, just in time: Nomar, Manny, while others were just last ditch efforts to get some value back (Lester, Lackey, A Miller) or tag ons to salary dumps (AGon and Beckett tied to Crawford.)

It matters if a player has had TJS, and it affected his limited IP up to 2024. That's all I'm saying. It affects what you might want to offer for a contract. I fully understand why arb guys make less. My suggestion on giving them a little more year 1 and 2 of an extension is designed as a carrot to get them to say year. I give them less in later years, as money up front is "worth more." The contract I suggested is based on speculation. I get that and have said it. Some players who sign during or before arb years often get more than what their projected arbs would bring them, in order to get them to give the team some added control years. Please answer what you think he'd get as a FA, right now. I know that is not the same as 2 years from now, but I'm curious.

Yes, indeed, and part of the reason he has a limited IP sample size was due to injuries. They can be and often are related. If Crochet was a FA, right now, you don't think he gets $20M a year, despite the lack of prolonged success as a SP'er?

Pivetta was our GS'd leader for a long time. Nobody was crying for his return, and he was better than Crawford. I'd put Crawford in the pen, even if we add Tanner Scott and push everyone else down a notch.

The language shifted a little on the moving Devers idea. I'm not sure that's a clue that something might be in the works, but I doubt we add a 3Bman, too. If we do, we may trade Casas, so it would take a few things to happen and not happen to force a situation where Yoshida and Ref end up platooning in LF. Right now, we very likely may platoon Ref in LF, with Duran playing CF when not in LF and Abreu sitting vs LHPs. If we add Grichuk, it would change the OF dynamic. An Anthony call-up and success story would, too. There is a very slim chance Yoshi gets forced into a meaningful role in LF.

So, just short of $300M was not considered near enough to "market value," which is understandable. After deferments, he essentially signed for $306M. (Covid likely brought down that contract, but still...)

Of course missing time "changed" how many innings he pitched. Bogey was almost always healthy. Crochet has has TJS. The injury concern is part of the extension consideration.

2024 OBP Leaders: .354 Devers .349 Yoshida .342 Duran .336 O'Neall .333 Wong .322 Abreu .274 Rafaela Ref was at .359 in 307 PAs/ Story .340 in 106/ Casas .337 in 243/ Romy .306 in 216/DHam .303 in 317 SLG: .516 Devers .511 O'Neal .492 Duran .459 Abreu .425 Wong .415 Yoshida (.471 Ref/ .462 Casas/ .417 Romy/.395 DHAm/.394 Story) .

His limited resume is largely due to missed time due to injury, so that was the ironman reference. He was also a RP'er before this past year, so that is a factor not related to being an ironman or not, correct.

If we add a 3Bman and don't trade Casas, Yoshida will play more LF than any of us want. Casas and Devers should play 155-162 games at 1B and DH, leaving maybe 10 games open for Yoshida or Ref to DH, barring injuries. It's not ideal, but as of now, our corner IF sucks, and without Ref in the OF, Abreu might have to start vs LHPs. No added 3BMan should mean 10 or less games for Yoshi in LF. Yes added 3BMan likely means Yoshida plays LF vs LHPs (Duran in CF & Rafaela in RF) and maybe some games vs RHPs (Duran in CF and Abreu in RF with rafaela on the bench.) Duran and Rafaela are close to even on D in CF, so there is no drop off, there. The drop off is in LF, going from Duran to Yoshida, but the upgrade at 3B should more than outweigh the loss in LF. Again, not ideal. Signing Grichuk would change this equation, but we have to look at the whole line-up and who Yoshida is playing instead of to get the net gain or loss on O and D

My paper, but steamers has our rotation #1 in the AL, but lower in their batting+defense combined metric than mine comes to.

Indeed, He was also almost an ironman.

Romy or Grissom, or Mayer on a crash course like Bogey had when he was called up (10 games at 3B in AAA.)

Even worse than what, though? If he's in the OF more than 10 games, it is very likely due to an addition at 3B or 1B, and overall, we'll likely be better on D and O, despite Yoshida being in LF. We aren't putting Yoshida in LF so Abreu can DH. Yoshida in LF, when the DH slot is not used by Casas or Devers makes very little sense to me, but without Anthony on the 26, I can see wanting to sit Abreu vs LHPs with Refsnyder in LF, those games. I doubt I'd want to sit Rafaela vs RHPs, so Yoshida plays LF instead of DH.

Yes, and maybe Bogey is the best comp for Crochet, despite the positional difference. There was a difference, there, too. Bogey signed at the start of his final arb year in 2019. Crochet has 2 arbs left. That $20M x 3 (before opt out) was a "team friendly" deal, IMO.

Lester did indicate he'd take a hometown discount, but even so, the money back then was a lot- obviously more than JH was willing to give. I'm still not so sure paying Bogey "whatever he would have taken" will prove to be worth it. Yes, Mookie was in a class by himself.

The same can be said about every team. On paper, our rotation is top 3 in the AL. Our pen might be 6th to 9th. IMO, our bats are 5th to 8th, our baserunning 2nd to 5th and our defense is 10th to 13th but needs a healthy Story.

That's what I think, and even 1 more year is better than none, within reason. The comp with Betts, Bogey and Lester is a fair one, but those guys wanted big money, as they were proven stars. I do not think Crochet will ask for their money, adjusted for inflation, so maybe JH will be more likely to sign off on an overpay that is not as hefty as the FA market demands.

That sounds fair. If the rumors are true, we are still looking to add something useful, and maybe it could be significant, like Scott or Bregman. Someone like Grichuk and Estevez or Finnegan could be enough to make us playoff faves.