moonslav59

I get your point, and my mantra has been we still need a lock down closer, but I would not say our pen got worse losing Jansen, Martin and a bunch of scrubs and adding Chapman, Wilson, Hendriks, Fulmer and maybe some or more IP by Whitlock, Slaten and others from the better RP'ers we are bringing back from 2024. Our pen looks better and deeper, now, but to me, not nearly as much as it needed to improve. I might be a homer in saying this, but I see more chance for an uptick on our pen projection than a down tick. We have a few pen guys with a history of having some very high skills. We need health and minimal age-related regression, along with just normal luck, in terms of ups and downs. We do have decent pen depth and maybe some AAA starters who could be used in the pen, like Criswell, Fitts, Priester and Dobbins. (And maybe Crawford.)

The one summer we actually did something (Schwarber Robles, Iggy & Shaw) look what happened.

Well. a return of Story creates the replacement for O'Neill with Rafaela playing FT OF.

I would not say Story was ever viewed as a key element of our offense. When we signed him, we thought he was, or could be, but he has never been a force on O for us. Casas has done very well, when he plays. Playing 195 games out of about 320 in 2 seasons is not a catastrophic loss, but it is significant. Devers playing hurt and then missing time hurt, a lot. he was on pace for beating his career high OPS by 70 points, in early August, and he was still over his career high on Sept 1st. He hit .568 after AUG 15th and .470 after AUG 31st (last 19 games.) On the flip side, Duran ha 735 PAs (led MLB) and could have had more w/o hi suspension. Wong, Rafaela and Abreu were healthy and missed no time and all did fine on O. We didn't have great health with our everyday players, but I do not think we had more than the norm, in terms of missing key bats.

When it comes to pitching, we seem to only sign injury-prone pitchers and guys who are known to be starting the season on the 60 Day IL (Paxton, Hendriks, Fulmer, Sandoval.) I don't think our everyday players get hurt more than the average or norm. Story has been our poster boy, but most teams have a Story or two. Casas hurt us, since Dalbec and Copper sucked for too long, until DSmith stabilized the position until Tristan's return. The Devers injury hurt, badly, but 3 injuries is not a lot. Last year, the unplanned injuries to the rotation were Giolito (33 GS) and Whitlock (29 GS missed.) The pen lost Slaten and martin for a few weeks, combined. They just plain succked.

Our SP'er depth in 2024 was Houck and Criswell. Our 1B depth sucked, until DSmith finally caught on, and he was an in-season add-on. Our OF D was more than fine. Our 2B depth caught on, late, as DHam and Romy did better than Grissom/E Valdez/Reyes. Our SS depth did okay, once we settled on Rafaela, but it wasn't great. Our pen depth sucked, as we used over 30 guys in relief.

I wish Cora would schedule days off for our stars. (LOL)

For sure, but I think one of our strengths is our depth (my whole quantity vs quality theory.) We are thin at SS, unless Mayer is for real. I'm not high on Rafaela or DHam at SS. Romy might be the best option, and he's not great. We are this at the top for a Catcher. We are thin at 1B, unless we give Devers a 1Bman mitt. OF is okay. DH is overloaded. Campbell, Anthony and Mayer are the wildcards. Our pen is deep but weak at the top. Our rotation looks good for quality and quantity, IMO.

But, unless you play Yoshida & Ref in LF, you are essentially paying Bregman his contract + Yoshida + Ref's contracts. I do think the 3B upgrade on D would outweigh the downgrade in LF D, but now you are lessening the full effectiveness of the deal, unless we can unload Yoshida. I seem to be one of the only posters okay with a Yoshida-Ref LF platoon, Duran in CF and an Abreu-Rafaela platoon in RF, if it means upgrading 3B defense and improving our ability to hit LHPs. Bregman will be a massive overpay, but that does not mean I hate the idea of signing him at $160/6 or $175/7.

He's not the guy I'd pick to be the largest FA signing since Price, and I'd rather we just sign the lesser-costing FA, Tanner Scott, but Bregman would check 2 boxes off my high priority list, assuming they play him at 3B, so I can see the pluses. I do agree that $156M/6 is an overpay, but just about every meaningful FA contract is, IMO.

Last year, we did not have more than our fair share of injuries, so expecting less is asking for a lot, IMO. We had guys that we signed, already injured (Hendriks & Fulmer) and some we knew in plenty of time to do something about before opening day (Giolito,) but other than them, we lost Whitlock, Story & Casas for a long time and Devers for a month plus a month of playing hurt. After Gio went down, our rotation stayed pretty healthy (except Whitlock.) Our pen was pretty healthy: they just sucked. Slaten & Martin missed some time. I like our depth better, this year.

So far, yes. I agree. I would not say Grichuk makes up for O'Neill, but it would be a step. It looks like we will be relying on health, players improving as they near peak prime and a couple platoons to make up the rest and then some. Hope is NOT a plan.

Mets sign Minter. Pirates give us non 40 man roster LHP Matt McShane for Shugart.

Well said.

There is a reason Papi was never our top paid player.

I don't want us to sign Bregman for 2B, but if we do sign him, I doubt he'd stay at 2B for 4-6 years. (I hope not, at all.)

I agree. Add a lock down closer and these guys look like a nice set-up group: Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten & Whitlock.

Another difference I see for 2025 than 2024, is that I do not think we will be forced to go outside the system to plus in holes in the pitching staff. This does not mean the pitchers we use in our system will do better than last year's imports, but it should be more seamless. 2024 imports: Joe Jacques, Bailey Horn, Trey Wingenter, James Paxton, Yohan Ramirez, Quinn Priester, Luis Garcia, Lucas Sims, Brad Keller, Rich Hill

Indeed, it could. (Add Whitlock and hendriks and maybe more to your list.) The thing is, we probably don't need all of the returning players to do well or even play many more games: we just need a few and no major injuries to someone else. Players who did not play one game in 2024 for the Sox: Crochet, Buehler, Giolito, Sandoval, Hendriks, Chapman, Narvaez/Sabol/Zavala, Wilson, Fulmer and J Moran. Players who missed a lot of time in 2024 with an injury: Whitlock (25+ GS,) (Story (120+ gms) & Casas (90+ gms) Plus Chris Murphy & Mata. Players who missed some time and or played hurt for a significant amount of time: Devers, Yoshida, Slaten, Refsnyder & I Campbell. Players who were AAA or prospects in 2024, and could see more time in the bigs, if needed, in 2025: Criswell, Weissert, Fitts, Priester, Guerrero, Penrod, DHam, Romy, Grissom and others. Prospects who could get "the call" in 2025: Campbell, Anthony, Mayer & Dobbins These lists are so long, that we could withstand substantial injuries and still be okay, as longs as they are not all at once, or all at SS or one key position. The list of healthy 2024 players returning is short: Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Wong, Houck, Crawford & Bello. I can't imagine the list of 2025 healthy players being shorter than this.

Thinking the Sox will win any large auction is not something I'm willing to trade value for the chance to find out. It's easy just say, trade and extend, but Vlad will only extend to very close to what he things he'd get in an auction similar to Soto's. (It was not just the Mets bidding near, at or over $700M.)

The Yanks lost Soto, Torres, Verdugo, Holmes, Cortes, Trevino, Kahnle and a couple others. They added Fried, Devin Williams, Bellinger, Goldschmidt & Alex Jackson/Fernando Cruz. I'd say this is not an improvement, overall. The O's lost Burnes, Santander, E Jimenez, Slater, J Webb and a couple others. They added Tyler O'Neill, Charlie Morton, Kittredge, Sugano & G Sanchez. I'm not seeing a gain, here. The Astros lost Tucker, Bregman, Kikuchi, Verlander, Neris and a few others and added Paredes, Walker and Wesneski. Clearly a losing offseason. The M's lost Polanco, Turner, Y Garcia, J Rojas and a few others and added 2 guys: S Solano & Mastrobuoni. Hard not to see a drop off, here. The Guardians Lost Naylor, Cobb, Boyd, Gimenez and others and added Santana, Hedges and Luis Ortiz. Not seeing a gain. The Royals lost Singer, DeJong, Frazier, Grossman, Gurriel, Pham, Will Smith and added J India, lorenzen & Wiemer. The Tigers got better: they lost nobody and added G Torres and Cobb. The Twins have added nothing and lost 6-7 players- nothing great.

Sox-Duran agree on $3.75M.

Of all the teams ahead of us in 2024, who got better?

Why would he extend to anything not close to what the Mets might pay? (Word is, Alonso will not be a Met. Guess who needs a 1Bman?)

There is no way the would do that, and IMO, they should not. I doubt they fork over one third of what Vladdy will get to sign Bregman.