moonslav59

100%. I'm all in on this kid, and he is still a "kid." It may backfire, bigtime, but we just moved a big stack of chips to the middle of the table with the players we traded to get him. Now, we were raised and need to decide to push out the rest of the chips, of meekly fold. I'd rather put my chips in on a bet like Crochet than Bregman.

The real roster blocker is Yoshida. If he is gone, it frees up a lot of roster flexibility and makes room for a number of options, internal or external. Bregman or Campbell at 3B with Devers/Casas sharing 1B and DH. Campbell (or Mayer) at 3B ends the future logjam at middle IF between Story, Mayer and Campbell. Yoshida does not affect the possible OF logjam, but with an Abreu-Rafaela platoon, there never was one. Once Refsnyder retires, there is nobody forced to the bench who should be in the line-up. LF: Duran, CF: Anthony-Rafaela, RF: Abreu-Anthony, or just go with Anthony as the FT CF'er and platoon Abreu and Rafaela in RF. Look at the flex on this roster in 2026: C: Wong (2B/1B) and Narvaez 1B/DH: Devers & Casas 2B: Mayer (SS) SS: Story (2B) 3B: Campbell (2B/OF) LF: Duran (CF) CF: Anthony (RF) RF: Abreu (CF/LF) & Rafaela (CF, 2B, SS) Bench: (Rafaela or Abreu) DHam (2B, SS, OF) Romy (SS, 2B, 3B, 1B, OF) Grissom (2B, 3B, SS) This roster looks very nice, although a big chunk of it is based on speculation and what ifs. If Devers can defend 1B better than Casas, we could see a nice gain there. If not, having Devers and Casas share 1B and DH could help them stay fresher/healthier and allow them to play more games by "resting" at DH rather than sitting out 5-8 games a year as off days. While Campbell's defense is somewhat unknown, it is more because he has not been handed one position to master, yet, and not out of some sort of lack of defensive skills. He should end up being fine, wherever he ends up. Mayer and Anthony are both plusses on D. I'm very excited about our future with these three prospects, and I fully realize 1 or maybe even 2 could end up as let-downs. We seem to have capable depth, if that happens. Between DHam, Grissom, Romy, Romero and Arias, we should be able to make up for a flop by Mayer or Campbell. If Anthony flops, we might have to go with Abreu playing FT, not platoon and Rafaela FT, too, although adding a platoon OF bat is usually in expensive and easy to do. if needed. (Maybe Ref plays one more year to delay the need for a RHB OF'er.)

Again, it is not 14th in batting. It's 14th in everyday player fWAR, which combines batting with defense. I don't have an issue with being ranked 7th. I might have us 5th or 6th with the potential to be 3rd or 4th, but other teams near us also have potential to do better (or worse.)

I just read this after my most recent post. Yes! Adding a catcher blocks nobody. Adding Bregman may block Yoshida, but not really a prospect, even if Story stays healthy for 3 more years.

We did have a couple major areas of need, that if we had filled them, would not in anyway, shape or form blocked one of our top 3 prospects. Those two areas were and still are: Catcher (especially defense) Corner IF defense. Signing Bregman would not block Campbell or Mayer, as Campbell can play OF, and 2B is wise open. If Story stays healthy, it could squeeze somebody, a little, but at worst, Rafaela becomes the super utility guy with all the flex Cora loves for such a role. Also, if Story stays healthy and does well, we could trade him and save some money to help pay for Bregman and extensions these young players should be given. Signing a FA catcher was not super costly, this winter: $5.8M x 2 Carson Kelly, $6M x 2 d'Arnaud, $6.75M x 2 Higgy or $8.5M/1 Jansen. Instead we chose a trade for someone who could be good and is good on D, but who fits the 3rd catcher role, not a #2. It seems we may still be looking at corner IF defense, either by signing Bregman or swapping out Casas for a RHB 1Bman, b ut Alonso is no great glove at 1B, either, and Devers would stay put with an Alonso signing. Sure, someday, we could see Campbell or Mayer at 3B, and the other at 2B. Anthony could win a FT job in CF or RF, of flip back and forth to accommodate an Abreu platoon with Rafaela or Refsnyder. We do seem to have a lot of flexibility and depth, despite having so many players who look best placed at DH. (Yoshida- 3 yrs, Refsnyder 1 yr, Devers- 9 yrs and Casas 4 yrs.)

Leadership from a player(s) can be very important, especially to a young team. I'm not sure you have to have a ring on your hand to be qualified as a good leader, but it probably helps, some. I think Story plays the game hard, and in part, that is why he has gotten hurt, so much, It is hard to be a team leader when you are on the IL 75% of the time, but if Story plays a full season, I could see him becoming a key leader= maybe more so on the defensive side of the game. He might be the closest thing to being a leader from the non pitcher side of the team. Others who have played more than 5 seasons: Devers & Refsnyder. I don't know enough about the personalities of many of our older, more experienced and or most successful pitchers, like Buehler, Gio, Hendriks and Chapman. (I almost didn't even include Chapman due to his off field issues.) I don't see Houck, Crawford or Whitlock as natural leaders. I do think someone like Bregman could add that to this team, but I've soured on the idea, recently. To me, he's just not the kind of guy we should be choosing to be the biggest FA signing since Price. If we signed him to play 3B, he'd be a big boost, but to me, it still is not the major move we needed.

We have seen Duran struggle with his approach, stance and even defense, but to me, he has gone 1.5 years of playing very well- all around. I could see him having a season with some slight regression, but to me the odds are he has an equal chance of further improvement, too. Maybe these projections light a fire underneath him.

Are the possible 2025 numbers over the top, or could they be realistic? Full Timers: .285 40 120 Devers .260 35 100 Casas .295 25 85 Duran (120 runs & 90 xBHs) .250 20 90 Story (550 PAs) .275 15 60 Wong (500 PAs) Not Full Timers: .290 15 75 Yoshida (500 PAs) .260 20 80 Abreu (500 PAs) .250 15 70 Rafaela (500 PAs) .250 10 40 (350 PAs) DHam .250 10 40 (350 PAs) Grissom + Romy .280 10 45 (300 PAs) Refsnyder .230 10 30 (200 PAs) Narvaez (.310 OBP)

Career: OPS+ 160 Soto/ Vlad 139 OBP/SLG .421/.532 Soto .363/.500 Vlad Per 162 .285 35 102 Soto .288 32 100 Vlad Neither is good on D.

Skubal is almost 2 and half years older and has almost triple the ML innings as Crochet, but it will be interesting. One could argue Skubal is the best pitcher in the AL or even MLB. 1st in AL fWAR from '23-'24. 1st in MLB in ERA- at 62 Blows everyone away in FIP (2.35) and is 2nd in xFIP and xFIP-

Crochet seems open to extending with the Sox... " “There have been conversations with my agent and the front office, just kind of getting a feel for one another,” Crochet said, as relayed by Cotillo. “Staying in Boston long-term is something that has a lot of merit in my mind and something I think would be awesome. In the meantime, I’m just focusing on spring and getting ready for the upcoming season, trying to stay focused one day at a time. When something’s presented, then we’ll attack it.”"

I'm not "sure" he'll be good. I have the same concerns as everyone. When we made the trade I brought up the whole "never pitched over 35 innings in a season, even through college, until 2024." The thing to me is, I'm just as unsure about how well Fried, Burnes and other pitcher choices might have been. In fact, I think I feel a little more sure about expecting them to decline over their 8 year deal than a Crochet 8 year deal (2 arb+ 6 extension.) It's a huge risk. It very well may be unprecedented. I'm high on the age thing. I'm high on his skills. The risk will always be there on any signing, just like the "sure bet" Price 7 year deal... NOT! I can understand others not wanting to touch this, and maybe we can get him for less than what I suggested, since it might be the first offer, like this in ML history.

From what other teams have been getting for 1Bmen in trade, I don't think it's worth the swap out. Are we so sure Alonso will outhit Casas over the next 4 years? I'm not so sure he even outhits him vs LHPs.

Signing Alonso means no signing someone else. I'd rather sign Scott, and he'll be cheaper.

Giving up 3 of our top 8 prospects is not "the reason" I want to extend him. That is just a symptom of just how much the Sox FO loves this guy. Hey, they could be wrong. The whole FO liked Yoshida a couple years back. Sure, different FO, but still can be fallible. I'm not sure how many really good pitchers were poised to reach free agency at age 27, so finding comps only highlights how special this guy is, to me. We extended Bello significantly earlier in the progression than Crochet is. He got $9.2M x 6, but that includes more arb years bout out. That's apples and oranges to Crochet, but they will pay him $19M in 2029 plus a $1M buy out on his $21M option in 2030. Bello did not have a season like Crochet, before we extended him, either. Most of the early arb extensions given in MLB are to everyday players. I get the uniqueness of my suggested types of offers, but that age 27 keeps jumping out at me. He could still earn his contract, while missing a year or 1.5 years to injury, and be young enough to bounce back. Strasburg was the same age as Crochet will be, but he's apples to oranges, too, since he had racked up several good years before signing, and he signed during his last arb year, not before his second to last one. Maybe notin can help on this. These deals all had more arb years left, and I'm not sure how many extra years were added on control, but other than Bello, there was... $53M/6 Hunter Greene $75M/6 Spencer Strider Wander Franco is no shining example of large & long extensions during early arb years, but he got $182M/11.

I'm only for trading for Arenado, if they take Yoshida. I know he has been in decline. I mentioned he's poised to fall of a cliff. I just pointed out that 104 is not even below average.

Shouldn't the fist big FA contract after Price, for 6+ Years be somebody we look and say, "Wow! Now there is someone we really need!" Not a guy we say, "Uh, oh- now we have to play him out of position or risk pissing off our $313M man. Not a guy where we have to bench a $54M/3 DH to get Devers to 1B/DH. Not a guy who has hit just .795 in a very long sample size of 5 years as he turns 31 on opening day. If they sign Bregman to play 2B, I'm jumping ship on Brez & Co.

Crochet did have a 164 ERA+ in 73 IP, before 2024. Certainly, his career is a small sample size, and one could call him one step above a "suspect," but we gave up 2 of our top 8 prospects, including our two last top picks. Either we believe in this guy or we don't. Sure, wait a year. That's the easy hedge thing to say. If he does great, for get about JH affording what he asks for. Bye-bye. If he is decent, maybe we can talk similar type deals, as now. If he sucks, you guys can all throw it in my face. I'm all in on trying to lock this guy up before he's worth much more, but fully realizing I could be doubling down on a what could end up being a bad trade.

DD revisited.

Ohio St is looking really good. Texas was no slouch. I think ND played better than the score indicated, and not just counting those bad calls. They had to play with their back-up QB for a while and stopped Penn St very well, except for Singleton. No WR caught a pass, all game. That is some lock-down coverage! I really like our coaching, too. We seem confident but not cocky. Our GB play is not great, but he seems to get it done, when needed. Our running game is better than it looked vs Penn St, but their D was tough on the runs. I hate Ohio St almost as much as Alabama. We gotta beat their ass!

A no extension makes the trade look like a loss, to me. I know it depends on what we get for 2 years of Crochet at a low cost vs how well the prospects do over the next 6-7 years. What is Crochet worth for 6 years, starting in 2027? Why is rolling the dice on guessing that worth and riskier than guessing Fried's production value from ages 31 to 38? Sure, he is a much more proven commodity, right now, and Crochet's project value is way more speculative, but how many 31 year old pitchers give 7+ years work out well? Why would Fried have been a better risk? It might have cost us $220M/8 to get him, but my $160M/6 offer seems too risky for you guys. Either Crochet is good, or he is not. An injury could hurt is value, but he would not be a 33 or 34 year old pitcher trying to come back from a major injury or surgery. He's by 27 or 28. I'm not saying you guys are wrong, but I'd roll the dice with a younger pitcher. I'd give him more than $160M/6, if he gave up on any opt outs before age 30. I might even offer close to Fried's deal starting at age 27 (2027), instead of Fried's deal starting at 31. Maybe $200M/8 gets it done, (actually $220M/10 counting buying out the 2 arb years at $20M/2.) That's an AAV of $22M for 10 years with no opt outs. You would say no?

And if the Mets want to replace the loss of Alonso with Valddy, we will outbid them? We can't count on outbidding anyone for anyone. We probably have a better chance at winning the Bregman offer, since the Yanks, Mets and Dodgers are not in the mix. I'm not saying we should do it. I have serious reservations on signing a .795 guy, even if we play him at 3B and somehow move Yoshida to make room for Casas/Devers at DH. We aren't getting equal value back by trading Casas, and Casas is a better hitter than Bregman, maybe even against LHPs, going forward. Gasp, gasp, the only real option, upon signing Bregman is this: Sign Bregman to play 3B, move Devers to a 1B/DH share with Casas and go with a Yoshida-Ref platoon in LF. Duran plays FT CF. Abreu and Rafaela platoon RF, until Anthony wins the job. 1. Duran CF 2. Bregman 3B 3. Casas DH/1B 4. Devers 1B/DH 5. Story SS 6. Yoshida-Ref DH 7. Abreu-Rafaela RF 8. Campbell or DHam-Grissom 2B 9, Wong0Narvaez C That's a decent line-up and an improved defensive team, as the upgrade at 3B outweighs the loss in LF. (Remember, we are also replacing O'Neill's D with more OF time from Rafaela. Maybe the total OF D remains about the same.) Personally, I do not think Bregman is the guy to pick to spend the most FA money on since Price.

It goes up, if he sucks or gets hurt in 2025?

Famous last words. If he does great, he's not going to extend, or he'll want the world plus the moon. The reason he'd sign for less money now, is that his future is more unknown and the injury risk.

If he does well. it means we get one more good season out of him (2027.) I realize the long term risk is major, but this is not price an a 7 year deal at age 30. It's a 7 year deal to guy who starts at age 25. Even if gets hurt and misses 1.5 years, he could still shine afterwards, as his deal runs out the year he is 30 turning 31. If he just plain sucks or underperforms, then yes, I made a bad situation way worse, but it's no different than signing Fried to 6-8 years. Your offer of $52M x 2 as a 2 year extension is a big risk, too, if he underperforms or gets hurt, early. You are willing to risk $105M/2 but not $160M/6. That's $55M/4 more. which could be a great deal, if he is good and $55M more lost, if not, and he refuses the opt out. I'd risk $55M to get one or two more years before an opt out. You are already paying him about $4250M more for those 2 years than my suggested offer. My offer: $20M over 2 arb years then $160M/5 ($32M x 5) after with a forced optout after 2017 vs extension. Your is $20M over 2 then $105M/2 with no opt out. My offer costs $733M less than yours, if he does not opt out after 3 years, but 1 less year. My offer would cost $41M less than yours after 4 years, assuming he did not opt out, but we'd be on the hook for 3 more years at $96M. I'm not assuming a major injury or even a decline means it will be a total wash out of $96M. Can you tell me why he deserves $52.5M x 2 for year 3 & 4, before we even play 2025? He could get hurt in 2027 and we get nothing for $105M. Under my deal, he could get hurt for any 2 years of the 5 year extension and we pay $160M for 3 years not 5, which comes to your AAV. of $52.5M