I'm more optimistic than many, here, about this roster. I'm hoping the pen gets better when we start moving SP'ers into it, as others return to the rotation (Buehler, Fitts, Crawford and possibly Sandoval late in the season.)
RP'ers are the most often players traded at the deadline and even before. We HAVE TO DO BETTER THAN Luis Garcia and Lucas Sims.
Maybe Hendriks finds the groove, but counting on it seems like homerism. Our best and most realistic chances are that Slaten and Whitlock get over this blip, and Chapman has one big season left in him. Guys like Bernardino, Weissert, Guerrero, Wilson, Kelly, Newcomb and even maybe Mata, I Campbell or someone else in AAA can step up and have one of those "up seasons" mediocre RP'ers often have every 2-3 years. We may need 2-3 to have "that season."
I think our offense will be fine.
I think our D is better than they have looked, recently.
Our rotation has many question marks, but we have some solid arms who just need health on their side. Since we have 7-9 SP'ers, I'm staying optimistic we can keep 5 going at any given time.
Yes, it is the pen. That is the area I stressed all winter long, well, after we addressed the rotation with Crochet and Buehler.
I'm still thinking 86-90 wins, but that is based on speculation not on what we have seen, so far. I'm not one to believe a player or team stays constant all year long and repeats the first 20% of the season over the next 80%. (This also leaves the door open for us to be even worse.)