moonslav59

I'm not sure why that is your chosen projection, but certainly it is a significantly possible outlook. I have no idea what to expect. I do still think a healthy Casas can hit over .800 and hit 30+ bombs. Projecting health is near impossible.

Nothing to celebrate. The reality has been that JH is not opening his wallet as wide as others. It does no good to keep saying "He can..."

I don't think anyone gives us real return value for Casas. We'd be selling low on someone with very high potential, but also a very low floor and a DH only profile, when you look at just how awful his 1B defense is. I think we should add a 1Bman and keep Casas as DH competition/back up 1Bman. Just dont count on him as a FT'er. I know, just how many of those sorts of players can you have on the 40? We already have... Yoshida- who we should try to dump. Campbell- the man without a position (another DH?) Mayer- the man who cannot stay off the IL. Hicks- the man that would have been cut if not for his $12M x 2 still owed. Others like DHam or Grissom, Kelly or Guerrero, Wink or Criswell can easily be traded or even DFA'd with not tears shed, but we need to switch from quantity to quality mode, this winter.

You can say that all you want, and it is true, but the reality is, there will be a budget limit, this winter.

I get the idea of not trading away one of your top 3 offensive, when you then say we need to add offense. Moving Duran to 1B is cheaper than signing one, and it makes room for Anthony in the OF and improves OF D. Having more money can help us sign a better player or another one (3B and 2B or P)

He's a hard one to project. He could hit 30-40 dingers, if he can get 650 PAs. He could hit .725 with 20 HRs. He could get hurt again and give us nothing.

Skubal has one year left and will take an extension much higher than Crochet's. I'm not sure I'd so a trade for him, unless he extends, first. You rarely see those deals anymore. Crochet had 2 years left and was able to be extended at a reasonable rate.

Yup. Nobody seemed to care.

Duran, yes. Abreu is a GG RF'er in a difficult park.

His final OPS was very close to the league average in 2025, as it is.

How about the fact that Manny missed ST'ing time due to 7 grandmothers dying.

Agreed, and Alonso a age 34-35 might outhit Suarez at age 34-35. (Note: Suarez just turned 34, so 2 yrs would be ages 34-35 not 36.) Suarez would be better on D at 1B and would provide the 3B depth we need.

I love Rafaela, but I'd trade him for Greene or even Lodolo straight up, but I think Cincy wants offense. I'm not sure they view Casas, Campbell or Garcia as the offense they need, but I'd add one of them to Rafaela to get Greene. Trading two RHB OF'ers might not look right, but Rafaela is not a good batter and actually has slight reverse splits. We could bring Refsnyder back to bridge to Campbell or Garcia- whichever we keep. Rafaela + Campbell + Clarke for Greene would do it for me. (Keep Garcia- the better defender) LF: Duran- Refsnyder/Garcia CF: Anthony- Garcia (Duran) RF: Abreu-Refsnyder/Garcia (Anthony)

He's older than Story was, but inflation brings him near "Story money." His nice start to 2025 helped, but I think the injury and being a year older makes it about even or worse. Apparently DET offered him $170M/6 last winter, so with inflation and being a year older, I'm guessing $170M/6 is tops and probably not likely. Maybe $150-160M/6 or $130-140M/5. Maybe, he signs for $30M, $30M (opt out after 2) and then $25M. $25M, $20M. That's $130M/5 but with an opt out.

How about signing Okamoto (3B/1B), Suarez (1B/3B), Matz and then trade Wong & Hicks for Murphy and Duran for Lodolo? (Kinda RHB heavy) Is that enough? 1. L Anthony LF 2. R Okamoto 3B 3. L Abreu/ R Refsnyder RF 4. R Suarez 1B 5. L Yoshida DH/ R Murphy DH-C 6. R Story SS 7. R Murphy C/ R Narvaez C 8. L Mayer 2B/ R Romy 2B 9. R Rafaela CF SP: Crochet, Lodolo, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford (AAA: Early, Tolle, Dobbins, Harrison, Perales, Uberstine) RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Matz, Weissert, Bernardino, Fitts, Criswell (AAA: Murphy, Sandlin, Wink, Moran, Kelly, Guerrero, I Campbell, Mullins, Drohan, Song)

Yes. I mentioned 1B, because of Mayer, but Mayer can play 2B and with Romy as 2B depth, I'd feel safer that way.

Unless we dump Yoshida's salary, I'm not sure looking for a big bat at DH is the best plan. While I'd love to have Schwarber's bat in our line-up, we really need corner infield or 2B more. One could view Alonso as a DH-first player, but he's a RHB. (He may be about as bad as Casas at 1B defense, so one would DH and one would try to play 1B w/o embarrassing themselves.) RHB Alonso & LHB Schwarber are the two best bats. I doubt we get either one. RHB Suarez (1B/3B) RHB Okamoto (1B/3B/OF) LHB Murakami (1B/3B) R/LHB Jorge Polanco (2B/DH/ 1B???) RHB Bregman (3B) might be players the Sox could obtain. Possible trade options: R/LHB K Marte (2B) RHB Isaac Paredes (3B/1B/2B) RHB Christian Walker (1B & salary dump by HOU) RHB Sean Murphy (C/DH/1B???) RHB Willson Contreras (1B/DH/ emergency C) Next tier FAs: 1B: Hoskins, Naylor, O'Hearn, Bell (Santana/France), 2B: Torres, W Castro, B Lowe, Rengifo, D Moore, SS: Bichette (2B/3B), 3B: Moncada, DH: Ozuna

I'm not sure he's worth that risk, either. I think I'm more interested in 29 year old RHB Okamoto, who K's less. He's also viewed as a plus defender at 1B and could be 3B depth, in case Mayer gets hurt.

I'd put the odds at 1% Houck is non tendered.

If he doesn't get $20AAV all the more reason to sign him. His ability to add 3B depth is something Casas and Campbell can't do. (Maybe Romy can, but we don't want him as our FT 1Bman.) Walker is a great example of a warning on signing these aging players. I'd rather we sign Alonso and or trade for K Marte, but I was addressing the issue with long term deals. Like Walker, Suarez will not get a long term deal, and even 3 years might be a push. $40M/2 might be what gets him to sign. Maybe $38M/2 with a 3rd year option at $15M w a $4M buyout- making it $42M/2 or $55M/3 (team's choice.)

Yes, but $150M/8 to 10 is a lot different than $150M/4 or 5.

All I know is that Perales is pitching.

RHB Eugenio Suarez turns 35 in mid July. He's played over 145 games for 5 straight seasons. In his last 4 seasons, he's had these OPS+: 129 in '22 103 in '23 (kinda scary) 115 in '24 126 in '25 (94 w SEA after trade) 4 year total 118. He's had a dWAR of 0.0 in the same period of time, but he was minus in DRS and OOA in 2015 at 3B. ('22-'24: -8 DRS but +13 OAA.) I'm thinking he'd be a plus at 1B and offer depth at 3B, if Mayer gets hurt. He's a risk, but he seems to be aging well. Maybe he'll take $70M/3? RHP Merrill Kelly just turned 87....errr...I mean 37. That's pretty damn old for a pitcher, and he had an injury in 2024, but he had 33, 30 and 32 in the other 3 seasons since 2022. His ERA+ has been between 104 ('24) to 133 ('23) and sits at a pretty awesome 120 from '22-'25. FIP 3.81. It's hard to project his future and risk potential, but maybe he takes a 2 years deal- maybe $45M/2. Together, those deals total about $45M AAV, which is about how far below the the tax line we are projected for 2026. If we choose to stay under, that would be all we could add, without cutting some salary or trading equal salary amounts. (Duran makes $8M AAV and Campbell $7.5M AAV- Lodolo makes less. Hint-hint.)

Of course, ther risk of failure or steep decline is higher, but at least it's not a 5, 6 year or longer bust.

Alex Speier was on the latest soxprospects.com's podcast and said some encouraging things about the Sox looking to upgrade the top of the rotation with someone better than Gio, while also adding a power bat. He talked about how the Sox could easily have a AAA 5 man rotation of capable 5th starters, and how the Sox are well positioned to make trades with teams looking to rebuild (prospects) or to compete in 2026 (Duran/Abreu or pitching depth.) "Giant question marks:" Casas, Mayer and Campbell. We are no longer "waiting on a prospect," except maybe with pitching. We are waiting for players who already have some experience to "make the next step in their development and where are we going to chose to upgrade from outside the system."