moonslav59

I totally get the reasons why you trade Bello over Crawford and hold onto KC in hopes he rebounds from a pretty small sample size of struggles. I value Bello way more than Sandoval/Crawford/Harrison. I'm not looking to get worse at one position or slot, but as with any trade, if we gain by much more at another slot, I'm all ears. The drop off from Bello to those three is much more than the drop off from Sandoval to Crawford, IMO. The drop off from Masa/Romy/Campbell at DH is much less that the gain we get by trading Duran the DH for a thumper 3Bman/2Bman. That's how I view trades and who to choose. It might be oversimplification, but I think my philosophy has merit. The drop off from trading Rafaela and playing Anthony or Duran in CF is not much either. I'm open to trading him or Abreu to, despite both being among my favorite players. I know some feel Bello is not as good as his ERA shows he is, and this is a trade high moment. That view makes some sense. His $9.2M AAV is also a reason to look at him (or Sandoval) as a trade chip. I will say that those salaries also exclude many teams from even calling and will lessen the return that maybe a Crawford or Harrison might bring back. (Not equally, but in terms of value per salary)

I'm not talking about weather he's on our radar or not. I don't think he should be THE GUY we sign for 6+ years. I'm not sure what you are asking. If he signs with someone, I won't know if it's a bad strategy. Each team has different needs and spending patterns. I don't want us signing him to 6 years plus. I think it would be a bad move if we did it. I'd love to have him on the team, but I feel like our budget would suffer for 6 years. I'm never banking on JH to keep spending more and more. I don't think Bichette fills the power need we have. I don't think he'll be a plus defender at 2B. I think he may struggle to have a 6 year OPS of over .800 or .820. I don't think that's worth $30M x 6. If you, fine. If others do, fine. If he ends up a Red Sox player, I'll be happy, for now, but think it will hurt us longterm.

I've been saying 2 big bats since day one. Bichette is not a big bat. He's good, but his little power is not what we need. I don't think Contreras is a "big bat" either. He has a little more power than Bichette and did fill the need at 1B enough for me to say we need ONE BIG BAT, still. Has anyone here ranted more on the need to trade for KMarte than I have? I also wanted Schwarber or Alonso, as in KMarte plus one of them. The Contreras trade makes me okay with one big add. I'm not happy with settling on E Suarez at 3B. His defense sucks, and he's old, but he is the best power bat on the FA market. It also happens he's cheaper and will get way less years than Bichette. I'm not for doing nothing for the offense. I'd be fine with signing E Suarez and trading Rafaela + Crawford for a 2Bman or 3Bman (Suarez to DH.) I think Duran brings back more, and I love CF defense, so adding Suarez and maybe Hoerner/Vientos/Donovan and losing Duran is still enough offense to get us to or close to glory.

If you say so. I'm not sure why that is the final say fact, but it does hold weight. The guy is a greedy owner. Most are. It's the way of the world. He's better than any other owner we've ever had. That's not meant as praise. It's meant as a warning. Be careful what you wish for: they next guy might be worse/cheaper or hire the wrong guys to build winning teams.

So, just sign the current top man, because he happens to be the top man. Great stragedy!

When I'm wrong, you and others call me out. It's not getting "mad." I guess I'm not allowed to point out others' miscalls- reasonable or not.

I gotta think Duran is worth more to several other teams as an OF'er than to us as a DH/4th OF. I also think there is a chance Masa equals Duran's 2026 OPS, although Duran brings much more to the offense than just OPS. I think he gets traded. Even if we find a way to dump Yoshida, I still think the value to the Sox is less than the value to another team. That being said, our offense is our weakest area, and he is a top 2-3 player on offense on the team, so unless we upgrade elsewhere (3B/2B?) then keeping Duran makes a lot of sense. However, now the talk switches to trading a better defensive OF'er, like Abreu or Rafaela. We also have Campbell/Masa/Romy/Eaton as OF depth. We also have Campbell/Romy as DH depth.

Trading Duran + Crawford frees up over $10M AAV. Duran + Sandoval is near $17M. Campbell + Sandoval is almost $17M, too. Bello is $9.2M, but why undo some of what we did by adding Ranger? Make Bello the #4 and trade one from Crawford, Sandoval or Harrison, along with others for a true 3Bman or maybe a 2Bman. It seems simple. I'm not sure we are looking to free up more money, but with JH, one never knows. There are still the ideas of trying to save a few $M by trading Yoshida and or Hicks. I've given up hope on that front.

Hard to know, but it probably did not help.

Agreed. It should be about $16-18M. According to some sources, KMarte's AAV is under $16M, but he is likely a mega-longshot get. I think we look to the Cubs for Hoerner (1 yr) or Shaw (4 yrs,) but maybe we trade for Donovan (2 yrs) or Vientos (4 yrs.) I'm sure there are others.

Yes. How am I contradicting that? I don't really consider the Masa, Story and Suarez deal as all that "large and long," but they are significant. I was speaking to those who felt JH would not even pay enough to sign E Suarez, but even then, I never claimed he would. My position has been I don't know and I'm not optimistic. Others claimed "He will not," like it was a sure fact. This is a significant signing. $130M is kinda large. 5 years is long enough to be called "long," but in my view, just barely. We spent less on Ranger, figuring inflation, than Story, but who cares? We added a major piece to help us win more games. It never hurts to add at or near the top of the rotation. This was unexpected, by me, but I love the signing. I think we ha ve some players and prospects, some who look logjammed by position. I hope we trade the right people for the right player(s.)

I totally agree. Why choose this guy as THE MAN?

I can and I will. I have agreed there is no reason, except maybe greed, for JH to not spend more. I'm not gloating because I was right. I WAS NOT RIGHT! MY position has been, we don't know if he will spend at any given moment. His MO is to cut back spending after spending big, but even that leaves open when and by how much. We don't know.

Our everyday players look bottom third according to fangraph projections. That is frightening! I have seen growth by Bello, and many of the numbers show it. Some show flatlined, but at a decent level. Last 3 years... Bad: K-BB% 13.0>12.7>9.3 Meh: FIP 4.54>4.19>4.19 Good: ERA- 95>107>78 FIP-: 105>102>100 WHIP 1.34>1.36>1.24 Hard Hit %: 35.1>31.2>30.8 He looks to be a top 2-3 #4 SP'er in MLB. He's better than half the league's #3 SP'ers and quite a few teams' #2.

I agree. When you look at just the value and years- not the salary, they have Marte at about $150M/5 or $30 per year, even as he ages deeper than Duran's contract goes. Duran is worth $45M/3 or $15M a year. That's HALF of KMarte. KMarte is a better defender and has way more power. Duran has speed. Those two don't even out, but I don't see 5 years of KMarte being worth 10 by Duran. 3 yrs fWAR: KMarte 15.3 (same as Betts)/ Duran 13.2 (same as Hoerner) wRC+: KMarte 140 (same as Vladdy)/ Duran 121 (same as O'Hearn) Kinda crushes him here. OPS: KMarte .887 (between Witt & Tucker)/ Duran .810 (between Naylor & Wood) Baserunning: Duran is 3rd (22.7)/ KMarte is 147th out of 229 at -2.9 KMarte has a very decent AAV, and I think he will age well, but that's just an opinion.

There is this assumption that even if JH decides to splurge, he will keep spending more and more in years that follow. Yes, he can. Most think yes he should. Almost everyone knows that no we won't. What he spends now will mean less later. That has been his one constant for over 2 decades of ownership.

They can smile, laugh and say "ooops, I thought JH would not sign even E Suarez, because he's too expensive."

I'm not sure who that prospect is, but I think we should be able to get KMarte for Duran and someone(s) not named Anthony, Mayer, Tolle, Early and Rafaela. I might think about Mayer and Duran, but then we'd need Suarez or Vientos/Bohm/____ for 3B. How about Duran, Mayer and Hicks for KMarte? BTV says minor overpay by Sox. They also accept Yoshida instead of Hicks. (I don't think AZ wants to spend, but they actually save money on these deals.)

Then when I said we dont know what he'll do, because he's pivoted and cycled so many times, they acted like I was defending him.

Exactly. I happen to like Abreu and Rafaela, because they play great D in very difficult positions at Fenway. Since Anthony is as close to untouchable as I'll ever go, it seems Duran is the odd man out. His BTV values is 2nd to Anthony. His D is the worst. His AAV is second to Anthony. He's also the shortest controlled OF'er of the 4 (5, if you count Campbell.) I'm not for handing Duran away or trading him just for the sake of making a deal. I think he's a damn good player and many teams want him. They should give us a lot of value back, otherwise, he's my DH/4th OF'er.

Quite a mood shift on this board, no?

Never bothered me. (I'm used to be surrounded by poor communicators. LOL.)

1. Hicks (no options) I doubt we DFA or trade him, though. 2. Eaton (1 option) We will be adding an infielder and we don't need a #7 OF'er. 3. Watson (return as Rule 5) It hurst that he has to stay on the 26. T4. Moran (0), Uberstine (3) & Drohan (3) I like Moran more, but being out of options hurts the flexibility.

Top ALE Rotations: 18.2 BOS (5.7 Crochet, 3.9 Gray, 3.3 Suarez, 1.9 Bello, 1.2 Oviedo) 6-9= 2.1 15.1 TOR (3.8 Cease, 2.8 Gausman, 2.5 Bieber, 2.1 Yesavage, 2.1 Ponce) 6-9= 1.8 13.3 NYY (3.6 Fried, 2.2 Rodon, 1.9 Cole, 1.6 Schlitter, 1.4 Warren) 6-9=2.4

Fangraph's 2026 Pitching Projections: 22.1 BOS 21.9 LAD 20.2 PHI 19.1 DET 18.6 TOR 18.1 ATL 17.1 SEA 16.8 KCR 11th: NYY at 16.3 BAT (and D) 29.8 NYY 29.2 LAD 29.1 BAL 28.6 NYM 28.1 TOR & ATL 21st: BOS 21.9 Overall, the Sox are 6th (1 behind SEA, 2.1 behind NYY & ATL and 2.7 behind TOR. I think, if we signed E Suarez and NYY & SEA do nothing (unlikely) we'd pass both for 4th place.