moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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What 10 years are you talking about?
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He didn't have a competitive team all 10 years. I was replying to your comment about just the Tigers and them having 10 years of being competitive. He took over in 2002. The team was bad when he took over (66 wins in 2001). They got worse, before they got better, and thos draft picks helped. Wins by the Tigers under DD: 55 43 72 71 95 88 74 86 81 95 88 93 90 74 Go ahead and throw out the first 4 years, if you want, and the Tigers were... Highly competitive in 5 of 10 years (made the playoffs) Somewhat competitive 2 of 10 years (82-88 wins) Not competitive 3 years (74-81 wins) Maybe I have a different definition of what a "window" is, and that's fine, but I see a 4 year window (2011-2014) and maybe a 2 year window (2006-2007). Since he left: 86 64 64
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I was just responding to the point about DD have 10 straight years of being cmpetitive with the Tigers. He did not.
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We basically swapped Eovaldi for Pom, who was coming off a good year, and we have Shawaryn not Beeks. 2017: 1. Sale (just added) 2. Porcello (coming off a Cy Young season) 3. Price (was decent in 2016: 17-9 3.90) 4. Pomeranz (struggled in second half on '16) 5. ERod (was 3-7 4.71 in 2016) 6. Wright (pitcher very well in 2016, until he got hurt) 7. Fister (added for depth) 8. Johnson 9. Velazquez 10. Kendrick 2018 1. Sale (coming off a great season, despite a late season fade) 2. Price (had 11 starts in 2017) 3. Porcello (had an off year in 2017: 11-17 4.65) 4. Pomeranz (pitched very well in 2017) 5. ERod (pitched well in 24 starts in 2017) 6. Wright (question mark at start of year) 7. Johnson 8. Velazquez 9. Beeks 2019 (so far) 1. Sale (a bigger question mark) 2. Price (a lesser question mark) 3. Porcello (about the same- maybe slightly better outlook) 4. Eovaldi (better than Pompom) 5. ERod (maybe the same or a little better) 6. Wright (maybe better) 7. Johnson (better) 8. Velzaquez (better) 9. Shawaryn (equal to Beeks?) (Walen/Shepherd/ JSmith/ DHernandez) 5.
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LOL. It's not Average Verifiable Value?
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The Sox have one ring as a WC team, so in some ways, it can make a team more likely to win several rings in a relatively short period of time. Certainly, the play-in game makes it harder for WC teams to win it all, but it give an extra chance for a team to sneak in the playoffs and have a chance to win it all.
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...and it's the AVV that counts for teams nearing or over the luxury tax.
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But easier to get in when you are not a top contender in the regular season.
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Marco may be first.
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I think Travis gets DFA'd upon our next signing.
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Betts JBJ Beni JD Hotl Nunez Pearce Swihart Moreland Lin Travis
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Kinda, but then they did hit a cliff. It took DD 4 seasons under 73 wins before the team won over 90. 2 years later, they won just 74, then they won 86 and 81. They went 4 years with 88+ wins after that, and then the hit tough times from 2015 to 2018.
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OF'ers are easy to pick up mid season.
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Maybe too expensive. Maybe too many years. Maybe to much of an injury risk.
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Pearce, Moreland, Travis and Nunez can play OF, too.
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The official budget tally has not been released to my knowledge. I think the estimate had us less than $1M over the final limit. Let's wait and see. I'm not saying the draft penalty is not significant; you opened my eyes on that, but what you get in talent through free agency that puts you over $40M is very significant, too.
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I guess it's a little worse than I thought, but the players we get for going over by $40M offsets that, don't you think? A 50% tax on $40M is $20M and that gets you a lot of FA talent. I still think the tax penalty far outweighs the draft choice drop.
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The 10 slot penalty is not bad, but it does have an effect if it's every year. The tax is the issue, as it rises to 50% after for the third year. I doubt any owner wants to pat that every year. Even the wild spending Yanks and Dodgers chose to reset. I'm almost certain we will at some point in the next 3 years.
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Maybe a little worse but more dependable.
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Let's hope he does better than those two. Any targets you have in mind?
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We will be very close to the $40M over line in 2019, and that's with just spending very little from now through next summer. I'm not sure if we really went over $40M this year, but we will find out at some point, when the official numbers come out. I can't really see us going over $40M 3-4 years in a row, but who know. If it's only by a little, the tax and penalties are not that much more than going over by $39.9M every year.
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Any way you look at it, if we reset the tax after 2019, 2020 or 2021, even if we stay just $1 under for just 1 year, I can't see how we remain very competitive for at least that one year (Betts or no Betts).
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Maybe we can hope Chavis and Dalbec can replace Pearce & Moreland. That $13M saving can pay Bogey's raise. Pablo's contract pays the arb raises. Incremental raises to JD and Porcello can keep us even. That leaves Sale's $15M raise. This is also assuming we stay even with 2019's budget. If we re-set the budget, several top players have to go in order to shed $40-50M from the 2019 budget. My guess is we wait until after 2020 to reset, but who knows?
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The Pablo contract expiring can not cover all the rising costs of arbs and raises needed to keep our core intact. What will it cost to re-sign or replace in kind these free agents to be? After 2019 Sale $15M>$30M+ Porcello $21M> $24M+ JD $22M>$24M+ Bogaerts> ~$11M> $24M+ Pearce/Moreland> $13M> ??? (Chavis/Dalbec/Ockimey) Maybe the RP'er we sign to a 1 yr deal> ??? After 2020 Betts JBJ Wright Workman Maybe a RP'er we sign to a 2 year deal
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It wasn't snarky- maybe a little condescending, which was unintentional, as I have made the point several times that we should just put off some signings and wait for DD to work his midseason magic as a legitimate strategy.... like the Eovalid and Pearce deals... like the Nunez and Reed deals in 2017...
