moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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A pleasant daydream.
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You may not agree on giving up on 2020, and I can understand that, but there is a clear advantage in trading other players. We get prospects or salary relief for 2021 and beyond. Our farm is not good. We can always bring back Betts, JD and Workman as well as add new blood. Clinging to players that are FAs after 2020 only helps 2020.
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Isn't it already there and has been all winter?
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I bet he misses his first start.
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Forget the "or not." If we trade Betts, why keep JBJ and JD or even Workman? We can sign them all this winter after a reset, if we want. We're not winning in 2020 without Betts, so why pretend we still can. Once we decided to pack in 2020, we should have gone all in.
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It's me- for real. I'm pretty certain we'll trade some players this season- most likely at the deadline. The only way we don't is if we are in the race by the deadline. I think that's highly unlikely. So, if we trade some players, I'm thinking we should trade everyone and anyone who is NOT part of the 2021 plan and seriously consider those who are FAs after 2021. We can bring back many of the players we want as FAs this winter, anyways, so this may not be a total deconstruction, except for 2020. The kingpin is Betts. If we trade him then why keep JD, JBJ, Workman and the two grossly overpaid pitchers? I get it: fans and NESN viewership. I'm not saying this makes business sense, or that I think Sox management might do this, but it's what I feel is best for the team. We sacrificed the future for 2018, and the future is upon us. Let's keep the cliff years to just 2 (2019 & 2020). Nobody hacked my account. I was on the fence earlier this winter, but with all this cheating stuff and parting with Cora has helped me stand firmly on the side of rebuilding as quickly and effectively as possible.
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The trade simulator has these values: 127.2 Devers 71.4 Pache 50.6 Waters 35.6 Anderson 12.5 Muller 1.2 Vodnik
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I'm very consistent using 3 year sample sizes. Let me ask you something: is it more likely he starts 35 games in 2020 or 22? or, 11? He's averaged about 21 starts the last 3 years. How about 35 vs 21? I'd bet closer to 21 than 35. I might even bet closer to 11 than 22. I'd bet the under on 21, for sure. You?
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A hole is something that needs to be filled in. If we assume 33 starts per starter, here are the holes we needed to fill for Price over the last 3 years: 2017: 22 starts needed by guys like Fister (15 GS), Johnson (5) or Wright (5) or worse... 2018: 3 starts (Johnson-13) 2019: 11 starts by guys like Velazquez (8), Johnson (7) and Cashner (6) He's missed 36 out of 99 starts. That's a huge hole. Yes, the 63 starts were valuable and will need to be replaced. He does have value. I'm not for DFA'ing him.
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Price and Eovaldi are already "holes" to fill.
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Well, Moncada would come with Kopech.
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I'd be happy with just JBJ, Price & Eovaldi, but I'm thinking why not get something for Betts, while we can. (I want him back, badly.)
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So, all those who expected a "quick rebuild of the farm" have what to say, now?
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At this point, I'd trade Betts, JBJ, JD, Price, Eovaldi & Workman, since all are FAs after this year or grossly overpaid. I'd think long and hard about trading 2 year players like Barnes & Hembree, but I'd look to extend ERod. I'd consider trading players I think may be at peak value: Walden, Chavis & Duran... maybe Beni. I'd keep Sale, Bogey, Devers and D Hern. I'd try and keep the rebuild short by going nutty with free agent signings this next winter. I'd go hard for Betts but not too overboard. I'd try to keep most signings shorter term. I'd encourage Bloom to find some diamonds in the rough. Maybe we can compete in 2021. maybe it will take a bit longer. I'm packing it in for 2020, despite a slim chance at glory.
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The one with Yates?
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I'd trade em both.
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That's not a big deal, to me. We can't count on him for jack. He costs too much. He becomes a distraction, at times.
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According to cots, we're projected to be $17.6M over the Lux line. This trade could get us under by itself. Plus, I can't help but chuckle when people ask, how are we going to replace Price? It's addition by subtraction.
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I don't. I want to dump Price more than not wanting Myers. Here's my reasoning: 1) Myers can play 1B and may still have some life in him. 2) We need a 1Bman and OF depth. 3) Price is owed $96M/3. Myers $69M/3. (Nobody will take Price for free.) 4) Price costs the Padres $9M x 3 years- not bad for them. 5) We save $17.2M a year, which is close to our projected overage on the LUX Tax. 6) No more Price drama. This is not about Myers. We can pay some team $69M to take Price off our hands, but we'd have nothing to show for it, and we'd only save $9M a year on the tax budget. We can trade him for a player who is owed way more than his Lux tax number- a guy like Myers.
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Clearinghouse: Betts, Eovaldi & Workman to LAD for Gonsolin, Stripling, Cartaya & Pollock Price, JBJ (Santana from LAD) to SDP for Myers & Margot
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To me, this deal might set us up nicely: Betts, Price (+$6M) & Workman (Both Betts & Workman can be brought back as FAs after 2020) for Pollock (CF), Gonsolin (SP) & Cartaya (C prospect) The LUX money... To LA: $31M x 3 Price, $27M x 1 Betts & $3.5M x 1 Workman $61.5M TOTAL in 2020 $31M in 2021 $31M in 2022 To BOS: $12M x 4 years We pay $2M a year x 3 years for Price We save $47M in 2020, $17M in 2021, $17M in 2022 but pay $12M more in 2023.
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Yates might be the deal-breaker for SD. The downside for us is the 1 year of team control Yes, if Myers does not play well, we have Dalbec. Margot may end up better than JBJ overall, and is a plus defender in CF. I would not count him as a 4th OF'er despite his sub .700 OPS the last 2 seasons. The real plus is on the budget. Myers is owed $$68.5M/3, but the LUX number is just $13.8M x 3. Yates is owed $7.1M x 1 (same on LUX) Margot is at $2.5M with 2 more arbs Sox Totals/LUX Totals: 2020: $32.5M/ $23.4M 2021: $26.5M/ $17.3M (assuming $1M arb raise for Margot) 2022: $27.5M/ $18.3M (assuming $1M raise) SD Totals: (Chavis & Walden are pre-arb- count as $1M) 2020: $33M/ $32M 2021: $33M/ $32M 2022: $33M/ $32M Sox LUX savings: 2020: $8.6M 2021: $14.7M 2022: $13.7M If we could trade JBJ, we'd reset, this year.
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He might not waive it either.
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Listened To Pedey on WEEI annmnnnnnd
moonslav59 replied to Swiharts Ghost's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
He did have 9 seasons over .800 and 11 over .780, so I'd say he was better than "slightly above average" for the longevity part of his numbers to be a bit more valid. He's basically Pedey who didn't have a career ending injury. -
Listened To Pedey on WEEI annmnnnnnd
moonslav59 replied to Swiharts Ghost's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I can agree with that.
