It's not denigration to say I feel they have the 3rd best chance to win it all. Nobody has had a better than 50-50 chance of winning it all going into the playoffs that I remember.
The percentages of winning it all, to me, is something like this:
30% HOU
28% LAD
25% NYY
17% the rest of the field.
I'd say giving the Yanks a 25% chance to 17% for the 7 teams is giving them a lot of credit.
To me, SP'ing means much more in the playoffs, especially your best 2-3 starters, who start 80% of the games not 50-60% as the regular season shows.
Best SP'ers by WAR
6. Cole 4.5
7. Verlander 4.4
9. Buehler 4.3
11. Greinke 4.1
12. Ryu 4/1
21. Kershaw 3.4
39. Tanaka 2.5
47. Paxton 2.3
52. Maeda 2.0
53. Miley 2.0
By ERA-
1. Ryu 39
5. Verlander 63
7. Greinke 63
12. Cole 65
19. Miley 72 (Why can't we get guys like him? Thanks, Ben.)
22. Buehler 74
53. German 90
66. Paxton 97
69. Tanaka 98
The Guardians and Rays both have at least 2 SP'ers better than the Yankee 3. Hell, even the Sox have 3!
Now, before you start going off on how important the pen is, the Yanks have the best, but others are much closer to them than the Yank's distance behind in SP'ing.
Team Pen WAR
1. NYY 6.3
2. TBR 6.0
3. MN 4.9
4. CLE 4.7
9. HOU 4.0
16. LAD 2.3
(BOS is 6th at 4.5)
xFIP
1. Hou 3.97
5. NYY 4.25
5. BOS 4.29
13. LAD 4.45
WHIP
2. HOU 1.20
3. LAD 1.21
4. TBR 1.21
5. CLE 1.26
8. NYY 1.33
11. BOS 1.35