moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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He was labelled an ace or solid #2, until he got hurt. He still had "the ace" in him, it just didn't come out, again, until 2013 and beyond. It's not like 2013 was a career best season. He led the league in ERA in 2007 and had 5 straight seasons with an ERA+ of between 115 and 150 before joining the team. If I had called Buchholz an ace for going 12-1 1.75, you'd be right saying "after-the-fact." -
Good point, but we sure signed him to be close to an ace. Yes, we had to wait a few years to see him put up numbers like one, but the guy did have a history of pitching like an ace or solid #2. Some feel he was pitching hurt his first season with BOS, and missing a season with injury certainly takes away from "the ace" label, but to me, he was near an ace. One could say a healthy ERod is, too, and to me, we'd need both him and Sale pitching like aces to win in 2022. Eovaldi does not have long enough stretches of greatness to have any hope he becomes and ace in 2022. We aren't winning a ring, IMO, with a staff headed by Eovaldi & ERod. We need Sale, and that was my point.
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If we get Odorizzi, I'd be okay. I'd like to see us get both.
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So, we both agree on Marisnik? (See how I turned that on you?)
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I'm a firm believer that having 2 aces vastly improves your odds at winning a ring. Having only one, like us with Sale, means it is nearly impossible to win a ring with him doing well or without new additions. Of course, we need more than Sale. Had he been 100% healthy and on top of his game, last year, we'd still miss the playoffs, IMO. Every year the Sox won a ring, we had 2 aces or 1 ace and another very close to one: Pedro & Schill Schill & Beckett Lester & Lackey Sale & Price I don't see Eovaldi & ERod making that list for 2021 or 2022.
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Excellent!
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Yes, just signing Ozuna and trading Beni would leave a hole at 4th OF'er. Both would be better, and Marisnik may cost just a hair above min wage.
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Cheap, so more money for pitching. Defense, defense, defense. That's 4 reasons. There are others that fit his mold. I don't know why I always say him. Do you like Billy Hamilton better?
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Me, too. Certainly for Lindor. It's absurd to think otherwise on Lindor.
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Not at all. In fact, that's his worst area, and it is just one component of what makes a SS average, above or below. UZR/150 in not about just range. Here is a breakdown of the 3 components fangraphs uses and his ranking in each (out of 27 SSs with 2500 innings at SS since 2016). Range 25th at -12.6 (almost last) ErrR 4th at +13.8 (he makes the plays hit to him with very few unforced errors- like I said. DPR 23rd at -1.7 (not good with DPs) If "dependable" means he makes very few unforced errors, fine. He does make plays other SS make due to comparative poor range. He turns less DPs than his peers. No, he does NOT have average range.
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I'll never agree he's even average. He makes plays hit right to him. If that makes him "dependable," then good for him. His offense is so plus, I can look the other way. What upsets me the most about his D, is that early in his career, it looked like he started to improve, then he leveled off and maybe even got worse. He's had a negative B-R dWar for 5 straight seasons. He has a -0.1 UZR/150 since 2016 (the year after he looked like he was getting better). He is last in DRS since 2016 at -55. (the next guy is at -35.) I'm not sure how anyone can call that average. When you use the word average, it calls into play all the other SSs who play enough innings at SS. He's been pretty close to average in UZR/150 (17 out of 31 SSs with 2000+ innings since 2016 and 21 out of 41 SSs with 1500 innings since 2016). If that's all you go by, and the fact that he is dependable with balls hit right to him, maybe you can stretch to call him average, but I will always disagree on this one.
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Okay, 23 HRs in 493 MLB ABs. (23-24 years old)
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Certainly possible. Most players adjust, then maybe need to adjust again after a new "book is written." Arroyo is at .643 career (SSS), but he has shown he can hit for average in the minors. I'm just not one to put much stock in selected sample sizes, even if recent. I'm not saying I ignore them, and certainly the high K rate is worrisome and makes it more likely he may never "adjust" enough. I'd still start Chavis, "tomorrow," but he'd be on a short leash, and if Arroyo seems to be looking sharp at the plate, sure. Again, it's a close call, and I know there's nothing better to talk about, but this choice is not going to make much of a difference one way or the other, even if it has to be made for real by opening day.
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What if we added Ozuna instead of Marisnik? 1. Bogey SS 2. Verdugo CF 3. Ozuna LF 4. Devers 3B 5. JD DH 6. Dalbec 1B 7. Renfroe RF 8. Vaz C 9. Hernandez 2B Bench: Plawecki, Arroyo, Chavis SP: Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, Odorizzi, Kluber, Pivetta RP: Hand, Lopez, Barnes, Brasier, DHern, Houck, Taylor, Brice, Whitlock
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I hope so. GO ROBO UMPS!
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If we went by selected sample sizes, we'd have dumped JBJ long ago.
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I don't disagree, and I'm usually very bid on defense "up the middle," but our defense sucks. It would help having Arroyo over Chavis, but I still think Chavis brings more total value- same way Bogey does at SS, depsite his less than average defense at SS. Maybe I'm blinded by the HR power by Chavis: 31 HRs in 471 AB in 2017 (37 2B+3B) 9 HRs in 171 ABs in 2018 (14 2B+3B) 7 HRs in 70 ABs in 2019 AAA 18 HRs in 347 ABs in 2019 MLB (11 2B+3B) That's 65 HRs in 1059 ABs prior to 2020. OPS: .910 in 2017 .919 in 2018 .766 in 2019 (.943 in AAA)
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SP: Odorizzi SP: Kluber RP: Hand 2B/OF: E Hernandez 4thOF: Marisnik Trade Beni for RP Lopez
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Neither has a big enough sample size to use WAR. Arroyo is a better fielder. To me, Chavis has a much better bat, despite the K's (hole in his swing). It's a close call, to me. Arroyo over Chavis- fine. We'll probably have a better choice by opening day, anyway.
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This is like the union steward joining management during a labor dispute.
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They can but haven't been, yet. I don't see us getting another ace this winter, so until we do, I'm thinking we can't win it all without Sale being healthy and near top form. Ask me, later, after we've made half a dozen meaningful moves.
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I'm not into the L-R-L thing as much as some, but if all things are close to even, then yes. I'm also not big on using someone's slot history as a big determining factor. Beni is a singles hitter. I like our best hitter up #2. Your line-up was fine. I'm not a big Chavis fan, but to me, he's better than Arroyo- overall.
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Yes, but they had Betts, Price, Moreland, Kimbrel... Unless we make some radical additions, we need Sale more than we did in 2018. (BTW, Sale helped "set the tone" for greatness in 2018.)
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Unless we make some radical additions, I can't see us winning in the next few years without a healthy Sale. I trust Sox brass knowing that.
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Makes sense, assuming we acquire 2 OF'ers after the deal is made.
