moonslav59

The bottom line with cots is $68M to spend. ($88M, if we go over by $19.9M)

Cots has us at $68M under the limit, including the $15M player benefit payment. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WWRsQNsGZkWuJZwlY8--xVBXMJGjh230D45KiHTHuvY/edit#gid=1520401900 I trust cots.

I kinda look at most recent year, assuming no injury or short season as being a little less than equal to the most recent 3 year average, but I'm open to viewing outlier seasons as factors. Just my general outlook. (I don't count 2020's season as the "most recent year," since it was only 40% of a season.

I don't live in New England anymore, so I'm not hearing the chatter. I don't see many posters, here, drooling over Beni. There was a time many were very high on him. Mookie and JBJ were quite a pair in the spacious CF-RF of Fenway...maybe even better than Lynn - Evans.

Wouldn't he say that just to add another team to drive up the price?

Yes, Danny cater was second at .290. What's interesting is the fact that 5 NL players hit over .301 and 11 hit over .290. 1970 was when I first started following the Sox. Yaz was the man!

Even then, with this being a short season, I'll always think less of whoever wins it all.

What an honor it would be to Mr. Gibson change the mound back after his death.

Is it really good baseball watching players hit HRs on broken bats, off balanced or worse swings? We could "unjuice" the balls, instead.

I don't see us signing Bauer, Realmuto or Springer, despite the latter being from the area and us needing an OF'er badly. I do think it is possible we sign 1-2 of the top second tier players along with 2-5 from the third tier... Marcus Semien M. Tanaka T Walker M Minor R Ray J Odorizzi Liam Hendricks Alex Colome Shane Greene M. Ozuna DJ LeMahieu Third Tier J Paxton J Quintana M Leake K Yates M. Brantley J Pederson J Turner T La Srella S Marte Cespedes/Puig Or... C: J McCann (trade Vaz?) 2B: J Schoop/K Wong/J Profar CF: Pillar/J Dyson/J Marisnik/Hamilton SP: Lester/Porcello/Stroman RP: Rosenthal/Workman/Treinen

Beni was called up at the end of 2016. He only played 34 games, that year, so why count that year and the one before he was even called up against him? It's fine to hold 2020 against him as JBJ has been more durable. Better to use 2017-2020 (4 years). Here's the comp: bWAR: Beni +9.0 JBJ +9.5 fWAR Beni 7.9 (in 18 just less games) JBJ 7.8 OPS Beni .786 JBJ .737 UZR JBJ 11.7 Beni 4.9 fangraph's "value" / actual pay: $63.5M Beni/$5.3M paid $62.6M JBJ / $29.2M paid

I have no problem with anyone calling Tito or Williams the "best ever." Williams took a team that was horrific for several years before 1967 to a very near WS victory. He put the Sox back on the map. We've been "relevant" ever since. Tito was fantastic- no doubt. Unfortunately, he had some personal issues that caused him to lose control of an excellent team on paper (better than the 1967 team and others). I hated to see him go, but it had to be done. I can understand those who don't hold any of that against him, or who feel it doesn't take him down enough to make anyone else close to passing him as the GOAT Sox manager. It's hard to argue against that. One could say Cora lost control of the 2019 team that was great on paper, too, and that he only had one great year and one ring as compared to several great years under Tito.I get that point and can't counter it with anything statistical. (Imagine that! LOL) I still think Cora is the best we've ever had. I like his style, philosophy and knowledge of the game. I don't really hold the cheating at Houston against him. He wasn't the mastermind or the head honcho there. It's a blight on his resume, but as a manager, he's a great one.

They cheated with the IFA signings years back and lost a signing season. Call it what you want, but it's cheating. The other incidents have more gray area involved.

Agreed. I realize that when yo swing and miss, like with CC and Pablo-HRam, the results can be devastating, but guess what? We found a way to win shortly after those disastrous signings, anyway. We were able to dump CC and cut Pablo & HRam loose and still win rings. That being said, huge signings should not be made willy-nilly.

Was the FA offer we made to Lester "respectful?"

If we offer JBJ more than anyone else does, it means we "respect" him more than anyone else does. That being said, I'm feeling more like Nick than others. We need to move past the fascination with our own homegrown players. There's no doubt in my mind, had JBJ spent his whole career with some other team, his name would hardly be mentioned as an addition for 2021-2022. We are looking to rebuild a highly competitive team. I get that along the way, a team can and probably should sign "bridge" or "place-setter" FAs to 1 or 2 year deals to fill some gaps, temporarily, but very good glove- bad to okay bat CF'ers are plentiful and many times much cheaper than what people here are suggesting we offer JBJ. If no other GM offers him $6M/1 or $11M/2, then okay, maybe make an offer close to that, but I'd still rather sign a Pillar type player for $4M/1 than JBJ at $12M/2. Use the savings to add a RP'er or improve another FA by offering $18M a year instead of $12M a year. The differential between those two pitchers should outweigh any possible drop off from JBJ to a guy like the 2020 Pillar signing. I get the point that Pillar signing could have been a failure as the next Pillar-type signing might be, but so could a re-signing of JBJ. I can certainly see the logic behind keeping Beni and giving him a legitimate chance to bounce back. The guy put up some pretty impressive numbers from age 21-23 and is still rather young. Plus, he's under contract: JBJ is not. The reason I suggested trading Beni was that his team control years don't overlap the projected years of us being highly competitive by more than a year, if that. His stock is pretty low, but I don't think GMs think like many of us here. They don't overvalue players based on a 60 game season or even the most recent 162 game season, for that matter. They recognize players have bad seasons here and there. Maybe they see something they think they can fix- something our staff missed. I'm not saying all GMs discard recent performance levels, but I don't think they place the same emphasis on it than many here do. I was for trading Eovaldi, when he looked healthy and was pitching well. I even said, "Hurry up, before he gets hurt again!" and I think he missed his next start after I said that. It's a tricky thing knowing a players trade stock value at any given moment, but other than injury and age factors, I don't think a player's stock goes up and down as much as we think it does. I'm fine with keeping many of the players currently under contract. See what we can add, this winter, without hurting our 2021 chances, and re-evaluate our situation, next summer. If it looks like we have no or very little chance of winning a ring in 2021, then I feel we should unload every player not part of the 2022 plan and look closely at every player who is under control until 2022 only. If we can get something useful and under team control for beyond 2022, I'd seriously consider a sell-off. I'm of the belief we will not be highly competitive, next year, even if Bloom guesses right on nearly all his winter signings and moves, but it's not clear. I'm okay with waiting it out for half a season. Barnes and ERod's team control ends after 2021. They could certainly be on the blocks, next winter. We also lose Pedey's contract after 2021. It's the players who become FAs after 2022 who are the hardest to decide. JD Martinez Eovaldi Beni Vaz Plawecki Godley & Peraza (may be non tendered, this winter) There is some real talent on this list, and it's not necessarily a great thing to see how much salary space these players leaving will free up. We'll have some real gaps to fill, but that is 2023. We'll know a hell of a lot more about the status of our homegrown players and prospects by then. Hopefully, some gaps can and will be filled adequately from within the system. Budget space coming off the books (LUX Tax $$$): After 2021: (~$19M Total) $13.8M Pedroia ~$3.1M ERod (4th of 4 arbs) ~$2.1M Barnes (3rd of 3 arbs) After 2022: (~$54M Total, assuming Godley & Peraza are not paid in 2022) $22M JD $17M Eovaldi $7.0M Vaz $6.6M Beni ~$1.4 Plawecki ~$XXX Peraza/Godley

It's hard to disagree, but saying "avoid big FA albatross contracts" is always easy to say in hindsight. How did we know beforehand, that the Manny signing was going to bring us our first 2 rings, but other big signings were going to implode as early as year one? It's a crapshoot. All of our rings involved having and NEEDING at least one massive contract on the team. Can teams win without one or two? Yes, but they are rarities. People point to the 2013 season as "the model" on how to win without signing massive contracts, but don't forget the 3 last place finishes surrounding that season. Also, while Lackey's $16M a year deal does not look "massive," now, it was a pretty big signing back then, and many felt it was an albatross signing after the first 2-3 years. Your points are all correct, but I think signing a big name here and there is usually needed to get a team over the hump. If we swing and miss, yes, it hurts for years to come, but without some of our biggest signings, we may still be ringless.

With $60-80M to spend, depending on how Henry views the luxury tax, next year, the FA signing part should not be all that hard. We could sign 4 players at $12M/yr and 4 at $6M/yr and hope 5-6 work out. The draft should help us improve the farm, but we might also be able to trade some FAs to be this winter or next summer to further strengthen it, but if we want to compete in 2021 that may not be something we do. We've been striking out with IFA signings, recently. That used to be one area we got some huge boosts from- Devers, Bogey, D Hern, Moncada>Sale, Margot>Kimbrel, Iggy and others. Let's hope Bloom chooses wisely.

Would you trade him for Boyd or the other guy notin suggested?

The Sox have been caught cheating several times.

Those should be more than enough to add the rule 5's for this year and a couple FAs. If we sign more FAs, here's the second list: Walden Covey Godley? Chatham? Grullon? Tapia? Like I said, we have no issues with making room on our 40 man roster for additions.

Every signing and trade involves hopes, such as good health. I feel very optimistic about this winter. Bloom da man!

I'm not for handing him away. If his stock has fallen too low, I'm with you. Give him a shot to right the ship.

Maybe not as high as '68, but somewhere in between might not be a bad idea.

Maybe the stars aligned in 2019 for everything to go wrong.