moonslav59

The last serious deadline moves was Schwarber in 2021. That's a long time ago. It's hard to know about the seriousness of the Soto & Yamamoto offers. It could be that their offers were legit, and they just grossly misjudged what the winning offers would be, of they knew all along they would fall way short, and it was a sham to fool the fans into thinking they were not going cheap, yet again. I'm not sure what to believe. I've said I'm not expecting JH to spend large and long, despite the Devers extension, and his recent trade just further throws into doubt JH's spending intentions. The Bregman signing was a bold step up on the "large" side of a FA signing, and the Story signing hit the "long" button, but it's been a very long time since the last Large & Long signing. The Bregman signing was offset by the Devers trade, in my view, so I'm are back to where I was before the Devers extension & Bregman signing. I'm not sure it will take 5 or 6 years to land Alonso or Schwarber, and no was does Suarez get 5 years, but Tucker probably will. We will likely go another winter without a large and long deal. I'll be more surprised if we do one than if we don't.

It's weird how soxprospects.com updated their rankings recently, then they do an official ranking in early November. What really changes between now and then? Some Fall and Winter ball adjustments? A trade of or for prospects?

It will be interesting to see how serious JH & Co are about boosting this team into the next level. We clearly have opened the window, but we also have some major flaws that need fixing. We apparently made a serious play for Soto, although some of us doubt it was for real, but this winter would be a good time to show the seriousness we need from the top brass. Players like Alonso, Schwarber, Tucker and certainly Suarez won't cost anywhere near what Soto got or what we reportedly offered. IMO, it's time to put up or shut up. I know our OF is loaded, so signing Tucker seems outlandish, but we could trade two of our OF'er to make room. Of course, it would be easier to just sign one of the other 3, despite their defensive issues and our current logjam at DH. Sign one to play 1B, and I doubt any of them are worse than Casas at 1B. I'd also see us add a second bat (2B or 3B) and a #2 SP'er. We can trade for one- maybe two, but signing 2 makes more sense. Just get it done! Add 3 high quality players and skimp on the rest.

Hicks has 2 more year not 3. 2 x $12M with a tax hit at about $10.3M. Yes, I Campbell is a DFA candidate. K Campbell might be traded.

He'd be at a price JH would love.

It would be nice to sign a 3rd catcher or trade for some minor league depth, but to me, we have too many other more pressing needs. I think Wong has an option left, so we could have him start in AAA, but we need 2 bats and a #2 SP'er most of all. We need 2 corner IF'ers and a 2Bman plus that pitcher before looking at upgrading the C position. I'm not even sure it's the 5th priority.

I think his baserunning abilities and excitement convinces Cora he's worth playing everyday- in the hopes he can just get on base, even when tired, and then... IMO, I'd platoon Duran more than Abreu, next year. Maybe 2025 was an outlier, but I think Abreu is getting better vs LHPs, and Duran is in decline vs L & R. (Abreu has better splits v L in 2025.) IMO, one gets traded, anyway, so the choice will not have to be made. Plus, Ref may retire or sign elsewhere.

Yup, like Hicks, who would have been DFA'd, this year. Sandoval was supposed to give us 2026 and maybe 2 months of '25, but we've heard that story before. That would have come to about $8M per prorated season: now it's $12M/1. Hendriks ended up being about $10M/0. Paxton was about $10M/ 0.5. Maybe we finally strike gold.

I'm okay with the two catchers we have. Just sign a capable catcher to a minor league deal. Look what ole Hieneman did this year! Why can't we find catchers like that?

Yes, fWAR rewards more and more playing time, and that does have serious value. Even if you think he's just a top 20 OF'er, there are 90 starting OF'ers in MLB, so that is nearly top 20% or the "A" level.

Yoshida was 29 when we signed him, I believe. Some of these guys are younger. IMO, we need 2 big bats, 1 big one if Breggie returns, and with a likely limited budget, we may need to think outside the box.

Another example on how the Sox end up with all the leftovers. NOT!

You have a point. Many pitchers have had one really good season and then not much else. Sandoval had one good year: 2.91 in '22 with a 3.09 FIP that hints at it not being lucky. He also pitched well in '21 and .23, but not great. 3.62/4.03 in '21 2.91/3.09 in '22 4.11/4.18 in '23 From May 1 to the end of 2023 and his injury, he had these numbers in 69 GS- a pretty significant sample size and more than a one year wonder. 3.53 ERA (122 ERA+) and a 3.72 FIP In the time frame of 2 full seasons plus May>Oct in '21... His 8.7 fWAR placed him 44th (350+ IP) His 93 ERA- placed him at #46, near Morton, Stroman, Quintana, Eflin and Nola. That 460 IP sample size is as large as or close to these Sox pitchers the last 3 seasons: 97 GS (543 IP) Bello 6.7 fWAR (99 ERA-) 68 GS (390 IP) Crawford 4.8 fWAR (105 ERA-) 64 GS (388 IP) Houck 5.5 fWAR (98 ERA-) His '21-'23: 8.7 fWAR &85 ERA- Sandoval: 69 GS (460 IP) 8.7 fWAR & 93 ERA- I think this supports at least giving him the benefit of doubt that he deserves a slot, unless he looks awful in ST'ing. Remember, Crawford is returning from an injury and missed season. Houck is out until 2027, Dobbins will likely start the season on the IL, and MVP is projecting Bello to miss time. Gio will be gone. I'm giving him a slot that is his to lose.

I get that, but that does not mean he won't be in '26. 28, 30 ands 28 GS'd in the past 3 seasons is not the sign of an injury prone pitcher. He also had 6 GS'd in the minors in the past 3 seasons in rehab, so basically, he's started 28, 31, 32.

Honestly, that looked like the Sox on the basepaths.

Still, the 13th best OF fWAR in MLB. Obvious regression, but still A- to B grade, to me.

I agree- player for player, except I give Duran a B. The missed time aspect kept the grades from being: A Anthony B+ Rafaela & Abreu B Duran & Refsnyder (close to B+)

These guys from Japan will likely be cheaper than the big boppers like Alonso and Schwarber- maybe even than Suarez. There is also more risk involved- see the Yoshida signing. We know JH likes cheap, so maybe we go that route.

I'm always for adding a SP'er near or at the top of the rotation. I've always disliked trying to upgrade the #5, but I do feel like adding a #2 SP'er is the second priority behind adding a big bat at corner IF or 2B. The third priority is adding a second bat at one of the positions not filled by the #1 priority get. (We'll roll the dice with Mayer at 3B, 2B or SS w Story to 2B and have Romy/Sogard/DHam as depth.)

Almost a "lock" to "NOT" be ready for Bello?

Most likely Dobbins, but I was trying to point out the max our farm starter depth could be.

The trade list might include: MN: Joe Ryan & Pablo Lopez PIT: M Keller MIA: Alcantara & Cabrera CIN: Lodolo & Singer STL: S Gray TBR: Rasmussen, Baz, Pepiot (RP Fairbanks/ 1B Y Diaz) KCR: Wacha, Lugo, Lorenzen WSH: M Gore BAL: D Kremer LAA: Kikuchi AZ? ERod, Burnes? TEX? Nate, deGrom?

CLE mighta made the playoffs with those two.

I think Mullins is the only real borderline Rule 5, and we can make room for him, too. I also think we will make a trade involving Duran and others, and if one is on the 40, that would free up another slot. 28 Locks/Keepers: Crochet, Houck, Crawford, Dobbins, Bello, Sandoval, Early, Tolle, Harrison, Fitts, Perales, Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Bernardino Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, Story, Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Narvaez, Yoshida, Romy, Jh Garcia, Wong 9 Probable/Trade Bait/ No Big Deal Casas, DHam, Criswell, Winckowski, Moran, Murphy, Kelly, Guerrero, Sogard Rule 5: + 1 Sandlin (maybe Mullins) That's 38 or 39. We likely dont protect Mullins and keep Hicks, so we'd be at 39. 6 Borderline/Trade/Non Tender/DFA: Hicks, Lowe, Grissom, Eaton, de Leon, I Campbell Trade or DFA the last 4 or 5 names from these 6. (Kelly & Guerrero are borderline, when we sign FAs.)

I see Keller as a #3. Cease scares the bejesus out of me. Galeen, too. I'd rather roll the dice on a shorter deal with Merrill Kelly, despite his age. Ranger Suarez would be nice. I like your other trade ideas.