moonslav59

I do not want Bellinger, but he'd be an option if we trade 2 OF'ers plus Campbell. This was the context of my mentioning him. Tucker will cost too much. We should not trade Duran, Abreu plus Campbell or Garcia. 2 maybe, but not 3. I'd be okay with a Garcia-Campbell-Refsnyder LF, if we got 2 key pieces for Duran, Abreu and others, but is seems simpler to just trade one Of'er plus others to fill one of the 3 top priorities and then sign 2 for the other slots.

That's my point. Our corner IF power was weak. Hoskins just about even out Breggie's loss. Hoskins was at .205 at age 31 in 2024. He missed 2023. I'm not seeing a grand improvement. The Japanese guy might be a great get. I'm not against that idea. I said I did not disagree with your assessment. I think we need a bigger power boost and would prefer more Known talent. Hoskins and Okamoto might be enough. Maybe include Mayer in a trade and get KMarte, too? I don't thinkw e can afford all three and still get the pitcher I want.

If Hicks made it through 2025 without a DFA, he's a lock on a pen slot for 2026. He's out of options, so only the IL can keep him off the 26 man roster on opening day, IMO. Sad, but true. There is a chance he can "be fixed." I'm not worried about our #8 RP'er, anyway. His contract hurts, but I see it as part of the Devers salary dump attempt at a minor balancing act. While I think Early has some high potential, I'd like to see us look at him as our #5 while keeping the depth we have in place as best as we can. I suggest we trade one SP'er with Duran and maybe Campbell or Jh Garcia for #2 SP'er or someone like K Marte.

The guy pitched well for three years before the injury. Not Buehler good, but pretty good, and it was just one injury. I think we have the rotation depth to cover him, if he flounders, but we need a #2. I don't trust Bello or Sandoval as our #2. Ideally, it should be... 1. Crochet 2. ______ 3. Bello 4. Sandoval 5. Early 6. Crawford, Dobbins, Tolle, Harrison, Fitts, Perales, Criswell Maybe start Fitts & Tolle in the pen. Crawford could be pen-bound, as well. Tolle, Perales, Harrison, Dobbins, Criswell and Crawford could start in the AAA rotation.

Legit offer, but we can't part with Mayer with the loss of Bregman, unless we add Suarez and KMarte, but even then, we'd need Casas to comeback strong.

I do, too, despite my trade him mantra. For a team looking to upgrade it's offense, it seems counterintuitive to suggest trading our WAR leader. However, look at the OPS+ numbers for 2025: 140 Anthony 131 Refsnyder + 116 Abreu platoon in RF 128 Romy-93 Yoshida platoon at DH 114 Duran 105 Story 100 Narvaez 95 Rafaela 85 Mayer (No more 151 Devers and 131 Bregman- maybe no Ref as well.) The only way I'm for trading Duran is on the assumption that we add a couple big bats- and I mean oner higher than 114 and one higher than 130 or 135. I don't see us trading Rafaela, and Abreu is a much better defender, power bat and is pre-arb. Anthony is not our DH, so Duran is my "odd man out." It's not dissing him.

I can see my wording was not that clear. I know AAV is important, due to the tax line, so Suarez might end up being more than Bregman. Paying a higher AAV for a big drop on D is not all that appealing, but I want Suarez at 1B and back-up 3B for Mayer. Having Mayer at 3B also makes 2B a priority (or SS if we move Story to 2B.) That's not appealing, either, but we need that big bat. We both seem to agree that Alonso & Schwarber are likely too expensive for JH and will likely get 1-3 more years than Suarez. That's why my focus is on Suarez. The second bat should be 2B or 3B (Mayer to SS and Story to 2B.) That can be via trade for K Marte of FA for Polanco. If we don't trade major pitching for Marte, maybe we can get by with our current pitching staff plus a minor addition or topping out with Merrill Kelly, but I think Suarez, Kelly and Marte is too expensive for JH, despite losing Devers, Bregman, Gio & Buehler. The extensions that kick in are significant. AAV 3.8> 28.3 Crochet +24.5 Min> 16,3 Anthony +15.5 Min> 7.5 Campbell +7.0 That's $57M added AVV, then this... Plus 10.3 for Hicks and Duran from 3.8 to 8.0 & Chapman from 10.3 to 13.3 and some arb raises. This cuts sharply into all the "savings" we've drooled over. If JH wants to reset the tax, there is not enough to add two large and long contracts, let alone 3, unless we trade some salary, too. I'm not going with the broken record of trading Masa and Hicks, but these guys offer some salary relief that could be just enough to allow us to add 3 players via free agency or trade. (Some of the trade ideas do not involve huge salary gains.) First of all, non tender Lowe. $10-12M arb due. $8M Duran plus 2 more arbs $7.5M Campbell (8 more years plus options) $6.3M Rafaela (6 more years) ~$4M Houck (plus one more arb) ~$3M Crawford arb (+ 2 more arbs) Abreu is still pre-arb, and that is one reason why I avoid trading him over Duran. Trading Story and his $23.3M x 2 is not realistic, especially when our hole is at 2B and 3B.

Good points. If they do want a pitcher back, it would likely be someone like Crawford, Dobbins, Harrison or maybe add-ons like Sandlin. Of course, they ask for Early or Tolle, but I'd not give Duran, Abreu and one of them. Duran, Campbell and one from Crawford, Dobbins or Harrison might not be enough, but it might be all I'd offer. (Throw in Romero, DHam and or Romero.)

Okay, but Bellinger is hard to forget and seems like a sure FA, unless the Yanks re-sign him soon.

I'd love to see Ref return, especially if we trade Duran. Romy should be Masa's platoon at DH, not Ref. I could see a short term singing like Winker as a "bridge" to Jh Garcia. I've been suggesting the idea of trading 2 OF'ers for a while, now, and with K Campbell looking like a 1Bman or LF'er- all the more reason. I'm not convinced Rafaela is a 100% keeper, either, but I know Cora loves him. (I think he loves Abreu and Duran, too.) If we do trade Duran & Abreu and sign Winker & Ref, we'd have this: LF: Winker/Refsnyder-Garcia-Campbell CF: Rafaela-Garcia (Campbell) RF: Anthony- Garcia The return for Duran & Abreu (with others which could include Garcia or Campbell too) could be a solid Pitcher and K Marte.

It's total money not AAV, if he did even think that. Devers is owed about $240M/8. Bregman might get $120M/4 andBellinger might get close to the same.

I agree, and I don't see Anthony being a step down from Duran. Adding Suarez plus Hoskins/O'Hearn or Naylor would be a plus over Bregman and Lowe/Toro. Losing Duran does hurt the offense, but with Masa as our DH, there is no room for the OF rotation at DH idea. Trade Masa and maybe we can keep Duran.

Suarez will likely cost more than the $90M/3 you maxed out on Breggie for, but I'd do it. He may just get 3-4 years at his age. I get the risk involved with a decline coming from Suarez, but I'd pay him a higher AAV than I would Bregman, and I think the long years is what scares JH more than anything. (See the Bregman deal and opt outs and the Devers contract dump.) We need power. I'd like Alonso or Schwarber, but both will probably be out of JH's range and both are more DH types than 1Bmen. Of course, Suarez might be no better at 1B than they are, but all 3 should be better than Casas. (I see Casas as our eventual DH.) I could see Okamoto and Suarez signings and trade for a pitcher. Maybe Suarez and Hoskins, but we'd suffer at 3B defense once again. Maybe we go with Mayer at 3B, Suarez at 1B and trade for Marte, but then we need to sign the dreaded FA SP'er.

I don't disagree on this assessment, but I'm not sure we improve the poser all that much from our corner IF. We got 38 HRs from our corner IF in 2015. That is horrific! Hoskins turns 33 in March and his power has been in steep decline for 3 years: .283 in '21 .216 in '22 .205 in '23 .179 in '25 Okamoto might give us the power boost we need, but losing Bregman and adding these two seems to fall short.

I do not think that's a big enough boost to the offense. Okamoto is largely unknown and could be a push with the Bregman loss. Hoskins should outhit a Lowe-Casas combo, but maybe not. He would certainly beat the overall 2025 Sox 1B numbers, but he does add a lot of power. I'd still push hard for Suarez at 1B over Hoskins or Naylor. I see Casas supplanting Masa at DH, at some point.

I'd sign Suarez for 1B and back-up 3Bman to oft-injured Mayer. His power blows Bregman away. His age limits the largeness and longness of any deal he signs. ISO since 2021 .224 Suarez .184 Bregman Sox Iso leaders since 2021 (600+ PAs) .239 Devers .211 Casas (one reason I am far from giving up on him) .209 Abreu (why I keep him over Duran, plus his D) .204 JD .191 Dalbec (higher than Breggie) .185 Duran (about the same as Breggie_ .179 Turner, .713 Bogey, .168 Story & Romy 2025: 300+ PAs .232 Devers (TRADED) .223 Abreu (Need to keep him) .189 Bregman (FA) .185 Duran (in decline) .179 Narvaez (great from the C position!) .178 Romy (can he go beyond a platoon role?) .171 Anthony (should improve greatly as he reached mid 20's) .170 Story (our HR leader) .165 Rafaela Others: .214 Refsnyder in 209 PAs .173 Mayer in 136 PAs- should improve like Anthony You talked me into a big bat or two being our top priority, this winter. Don't try and talk me out of it! LOL! Bregman is a good bat but not great, and he lacks the power we need. Don't be surprised if Bregman gets more more money than Suarez (more years, maybe not more more AAV.)

Right. If we trade for Marte, we'd have to sign a FA pitcher or settle for a M Keller type trade that will not need Mayer as part of it. I got away from my theory of two major signings and one major trade. Two major trades would be too problematic and would destroy the depth and long term window this foundation offers. It would have to be K Marte OR Greene/Lodolo/Ryan

Agreed. All money is not equal. Deferred money is worth way less than upfront money, and there is a very valid reason they discount the tax line number for it. I was thinking $110M/4 might be my limit, but no way that gets Breggie to sign. $150M/6 is adding $20M per year for two more years. That seems okay, and he'd likely play 2B those last 2-3 years, but I'm not sure even $150M/6 gets it done. If he misses the final year, and it's essentially $150M/5, he'll be 35 for season 4 and 36 for season 5. He might still be okay at those ages and even at 37 (year 6.) I just think we need more of a power bat, and with Bregman's decline on defense, I'm not sure the D outweighs the lack of power, anymore. We are also not sure he can maintain an .800 OPS, even next year.

I agree. Mayer SS, Story 2B and Suarez 3B/1B. (Not many other 3B options in free agency: Moncada and ______?) Maybe a trade for 3B will be necessary. I know you don't want Story at 3B, but a trade for K marte might be possible and he'd check off the big bat needed box: 1B Suarez (back up to Story/Mayer at 3B) 2B K Marte SS Mayer (Story back-up) 3B Story This infield solves the issue with needing two big bats over the winter, and allows us to trade from OF depth to get a solid SP'er. We can check the three biggest boxes: Big RHB 1B, 3B, 2B (Suarez) Big LHB 3B, 2B, 1B (Marte is a switch hitter) Solid SP: Greene, Lodolo, Ryan, Keller or _____ (via trade) (My 4th prioirty and pie-in-the-sky would be to add a second SP'er like Merrill Kelly and move Tolle, Fitts and maybe Crawford to the pen, making it as solid and deep as it's ever been.)

Agreed. I know you like to wait until FAs are verified, but Bellinger will be a FA. He's not taking $25M/1 after this season. I'm not that high on him. He's too up and down and would be our LF'er to replace Duran. He'll also be too costly. I would not trade low cost Duran and Abreu with the idea of paying Tucker through the roof. Just get a cheaper bat at 3B, 1B or 2B (2 of 'em, IMO.)

I was going to say the exact same amount and years, and feel even that is a pretty gross overpay. He was owed $80M/2, so offering $10M for the third year is a bit of a slap in the face that he will surely decline. $110M/4 is borderline slapping his face. As bad a defender as Suarez is, I'm leaning towards him. We need the power and being a RHB helps, too. I'd like to see him signed to play 1B and be Mayer's back-up at 3B, which could very much come into play. Needing to use Toro, when Breggie went down, last season exposed a big depth hole, despite his hitting well out of the gate. Using Mayer at 3B solidifies the need for a real 2Bman. We've let that position go on sucking for far too long. A trade for K Marte or a J Polanco signing (both switch hitters with decent splits.) That still leave the big need for a number 2 pitcher via trade or signings. I'm not big on any pitcher FA signings, this winter, so maybe trading for a pitcher and signing Suarez & Polanco is the best we can hope for. I suppose we could sign Merrill Kelly and trade for K Marte, as the plan A/B. Suarez, K Marte, Kelly Suarez, Polanco, Joe Ryan (H Greene or Lodolo- worst case- M Keller)

I would go to great extremes to get Greene, due mainly to the 3 years of control at about $40M total ($8,3 tax hit is right up our alley.) This offer looks like one for Skenes, who is pre-arb with 4 years of control. As for BTV, I think they have Duran over-valued. I'm not dissing Duran, but I do have some fears of an Ellsbury situation. If we gave up Duran, Abreu & Campbell and added a significant FA OF'er (likely not Tucker,) I could stomach that loss, but then to add Perales and Clarke (plus throw-in Romero,) it becomes way too much. Also, us signing a FA OF'er does not take away from the fact that giving just the first 2 names is a gross overpay. I'd keep the guy who plays great RF and might have led the team in HRs, this season, had he not got hurt: Abreu. I know this is an overpay, but I'd give Duran, Campbell, Paez, Sandlin or Mullins and Romero. If they insisted on a better pitcher, I might give both Sandlin & Mullins or breakdown and give them one from Valera, Fajardo or maybe Clarke, Perales. I think Greene is elite, and three years is a lot of value. Speaking of "Hunter," how about this package for Hunter Brown and his 3 arb years?

The Soto money ended up being insane, so it's hard to say we made an offer we knew would be beat. I think we felt we had a chance and made a legit offer that was way more than the record Devers contract. That being said, the Devers trade and Bregman opt out keeps me firmly in the "I'll believe it when I see it" mode, when it comes to expecting a large and long deal, anytime soon.

Bregman opts out, as expected. He may still re-sign under different terms.