moonslav59

Don't get sad over a 10 game sample size, especially the first 10 games after a long winter off.

Yup. Suarez (31 in AUG) 129 ERA+ last 2 years (308 IP)/ 129 ERA+ last 5 years (694 IP) Luzardo (29 in SEP, but contract begins at age 29-30) 104 ERA+ (250 IP)/ 103 ERA+ last 5 years (624 IP) He did have a nice 2 year stretch '22-'23 with a 129 ERA+.

Phillies extend Luzardo to $135M/5 starting in 2027.

Indeed, but Betts lived up to every inch of the first part of his deal. As MVP pointed out, he's just about earned all the money, already. I think he'll still be decent for a few more years, too. That's icing on the cake, even if he's not "earning" his remaining salary- year by year. (It's amazing that he's played 5 years and has 7 left.) He's 33 and will be 34-39 for his last 6 seasons of his 12 year deal. Had we signed him to $300M/10, which we are not certain we offered that or he'd have taken it, but we'd be half way through.

Except it's not spring, yet. (LOL) Are ST'ing games even half over, yet?

Agreed. He might even have a few decent seasons left in him.

All true, but one 3 for 4 game changes all those KC numbers. (OK, not the K/BB one.)

Good breakdown. I doubt Castro sees MLB or ever gets a long look. I like Jo Garcia more than many do. I see 3 very promising IFAs near AA/AAA: Arias, Gonzales & Valera. 3 is not bad. The rest are too far away or don't appear to have high ceilings.

I was comparing the Contreras bat w Bregman and the Durbin/IKF glove to Bregman's 3/4 season (+Toro 1/4). To me, the missing piece was replacing the Devers bat.

I don't disagree, and almost all of these IFAs start out in DSL and FCL. We do have quite a few IFAs who should begin the season in AA or get there, this year, so not all are very far away, anymore: AA: Arias, Jo Garcia, YRod, Bleis & Castro (plus NR Liendo, F de Leon & others?) A+>>AA? Valera, J Gonzalez & others? I do agree that many of these players will never make the bigs, but it is nice to see more IFAs getting into the picture.

Dropping Anthony, Mayer and Campbell was a major factor in the drop. I think more than trading away Perales, Garcia, Clarke and some lesser prospects. Also, we did replace perales with Bennett, added Watson while losing Paez and built up our catcher depth around the #30 rankings. Both made a difference, but I think losing the big three, plus Narvaez was the majority factor in the drop. I kind of expected a bigger drop.

This is the part many gloss over, ignore or are unaware of.

Next, the Yanks & Jays... LOL

According to MLB.com, the Sox have the most IFA prospects in their top 30- fifteen of them! Here is how soxprospects.com ranks the Sox IFA prospects: 2. Arias '23 5. Valera '23 7. Gonzales '24 8. Soto '25 16. Bleis '21 17. Cespedes '23 18. Azocar '24 20. Castro '19 21. Delzine '25 22. Ramos '25 23. Rivas '25 24. Jo Garcia '22 (That's 12 in the top 24, but most are bunched from 16-24th.) 26. Monegro '20 (He is the 13th in the top 30.) 32. Primera 33. Silverio 34. Brito (16 in the top 34.) The Sox have usually done pretty well with IFA signings, and it's nice to see them seemingly doing well, again. IFA players on the current 40: Rafaela, Bello & Yoshida That's a much lower percentage than the top prospect list.

While fangraphs is rather bullish on the O's and have them finishing about 1.4 fWAR below the Sox with their projections, they have Holliday (1.9) and Westburg (2.7) as key pieces for 2026. Both will be on the IL for a significant time to start the season. Fangraphs also has some sunny projections when compared to 2025 numbers: 6.0 Henderson 4.8 in '25 (Understandable jump) 4.0 Rutschman 1.2 (Why this huge leap?) 3.6 Alonso (3.6 in '25) 2.7 Westburg (1.9- starts year on IL) 2.7 T Ward (2.9 in '25) 2.2 Cowser (0.6- I could see this jump upwards) 1.9 Holliday (1.2- starts year on IL) 1.5 Basallo (-0.3) 1.3 O'Neill (-0.3 in '25) 1.5 Beavers, 1.0 (from 0.7 in '25) Alexander (starting 2B now) & 0.6 Mayo (0.2 in '25 and starting 3B now) 2.9 Bradish (1.1 in '25) 2.1 Rogers (3.3 in '25) 1.9 Bassitt (2.3) 1.8 Baz (2.0) 1.4 Eflin & 1.2 Kremer 1.1 Helsley (0.2 a big jump projected, here) 0.5 Kittredge (0.2 in '25) A guess fangraphs likes the O's for some reason, but why this? Rafaela: 3.8>3.2 (maybe) Duran 3.9> 2.4 (absurd) Story 3.0>2.3 (can see this) Contreras 2.8>2.2 (nope) Narvaez 2.7> 1.9 (sophomore slump?) Abreu: 2.4> 2.4 (entering peak prime)

The projected Orioles 2026 team: 1. Henderson SS .787 in '25 2. T Ward LF ,792 (under .756 previous 2 seasons) 3. Rutschman C .673 4. Alonso 1B .871 (.804 from '23-'24) 5. O'Neill RF .684 (.765 previous 3 seasons combined) 6. Basallo DH .558 as a 20 year old 7. Alexander 2B (Jackson Holliday on IL) 8. Cowser CF .655 9. Mayo 3B (Westburg on IL) SP: Bradish, T Rogers, Baz, Bassitt, Eflin/Kremer I'm just not getting all the O love. What am I missing?

Good points, but Bregman only played 2/3 of the season and kinda sucked near the end of 2025. Durbin is a very good defensive player. Contreras is new at 1B, but he looked pretty good, last season. Mayer should be a big defensive upgrade at 2B, if he sticks and stays healthy. Story may continue his decline on defense. IKF was a major upgrade to our infield bench defense and versatility. Overall, I think our infield defense improved. Our OF defense remains the best in MLB, if not top 2-3. Our catcher defense looks solid (top 10ish?)

Bennett is on the hill, today vs PIT. 1. Ward CF 2. IKF 3B 3. Monasterio 1B 4. Wong C 5. Thaiss DH 6. Romero 2B 7. Capra SS 8. Castro RF 9. McDonough LF

I call Contreras and Bregman a push on offense. The down turn was Devers to Durbin. On defense, we may have improved some: Bregman to Durbin, Toro/Lowe/Casa/Romy to Contreras and an awful 2B mix to Mayer. The pitching got way better on paper.

People tend to focus on the additions teams make over the winter(s.) The O's have lost a lot of talent, too. Two years ago, the O's were looking at... C Rutschman coming off 2 straight .800+ seasons. He has dropped off significantly, since then. 1B Mountcastle on the rise. 2B Holliday with oodles of promise. SS Gunnar Henderson as one of MLB's top young stars. 3B Ramon Urias, who had a decent 2024 season LF Cowser as another youngster on the rise. CF Mullins as a solid vet RF Santander about to have an .800+ season DH O'Hearn as one of MLB's best DHs Bench: Westburg, McCann, Hays & Mateo Rotation: Burnes (2.92 in '24) Eflin (2.60) A Suarez (3.70), Grayson Rodrigues (3.86) Bradish (2.75) Kremer (4.10) and Cole Irvin (coming off a 3 year 4.16 ERA) Kimbrel was their closer and they ended up having 4-5 RP'ers with an ERA under 3.30. That was a better looking & promising team than this one is. Way better.

Maybe a big WBC will get someone calling.

It's hard not to get excited about this young player.

After losing Refsnyder, this one hurts, more.

I've agreed Casas and Romy start the season on the IL and there is no need or rush to trade Masa, now. I don't see him "blocking" Eaton, either. KC will begin the season in AAA, and he won't get the call, unless it's to play FT or near FT, so in that context, Masa is not blocking him, until (and if) he has proven himself to some extent, but then again, Masa kinda has to re-prove himself, too, and with Duran at FT DH, that will be hard. To me, it's not so much about blocking KC & Casas-Romy, it's about having 4 FT OF'ers and using a bench slot for a DH only player who likely needs to be platooned. Yes, we may not not have to do anything, even until June or the dealine.