moonslav59

Assuming everyone is healthy, I like these line-ups: vs RHPs: 1. L Beni LF 2. R Bogaerts SS 3. L Verdugo RF 4. L Devers 3B 5. R Martinez DH 6. L Moreland 1B 7. R Chavis/Peraza 2B 8. L JBJ CF 9. R Vaz C vs LHPs 1. L Beni 2. R Bogaerts 3. L Verdugo (has hit LHPs equally well) 4. R Martinez 5. L Devers 6. R Chavis 2B 7. R Dalbec 1B 8. R Vaz C 9. L JBJ CF

I'm a big Dalbec fan, but I think he should start out as a platoon vs LHPs only. Moreland and Ockimey are better choices vs RHPs- the majority of PAs. Here are the recent splits by our possible 2020 1Bmen: OPS vs RHPs/LHPs Dalbec (Bats R) 2019 .753/.950 AAA 2019 .794/.904 AA 2018 .868/.701 AA 2018 .970/.881 A+ Moreland 2019 .887/.598 MLB 2018 .780/.684 MLB 2017 .784/.684 MLB Chavis (bats R) 2019 .774/.742 MLB (slumped 2nd half .649 overall) 2019 .850/1.786 (7 AB) AAA 2018 .917/.644 (33 AB total) AAA 2018 .880/.964 AA Ockimey (Bats L) 2019 .898/.535 AAA 2018 .783/.460 AAA 2018 .968/.586 AA On paper, it looks like Moreland or Ockimey vs RHPs and Dalbec vs LHP. Chavis should not play 1B, unless in an emergency or after a PH situation. If we get Puig, what happens when Verdugo comes back? Bench the $11M JBJ? I'm not against getting Puig, but I'd prefer pitching upgrades.

Probably not if we hold off surgery for a few more months.

It's pure speculation, of course, and the names on the list (more than 26, BTW) are just possible slot-fillers.

It doesn't look like it helped for 2020, but it didn't hurt more than losing Betts. Let's see how Price does, and how healthy he is going to be.

soxprospects.com has this as the projected 2021 roster: SP: Sale, Erod, Eovaldi, Perez, Mata/Ward RP: Barnes, DHern, Houck, Hembree, Taylor, Brasier, Feltman, Mazza/Osich C: Vazquez, Plawecki 1B: Moreland, Chavis 2B: Downs, Peraza (Pedey) 3B: Devers, Dalbec SS: Bogaerts, Chatham LF: Beni, Wilson CF: Duran, Lin RF: Verdugo DH: JD

Huh?

Not even close. We will remain a big spending team, even this year. Our rebuild could be hastened by writing off 2020. If we spend over the tax line in 2021, we could be an odd-on playoff team. The Marlins are years away.

This season is toast. Just put Sale under the knife and hope for a speedy return. Deal Workman and others at the deadline. Make deals that only help us in 2021 and beyond- with an emphasis on 2022 and beyond.

Thanks for the update. Looks like Weber is pushing for the opener slot/5th starter.

His sub par years were long ago. Yes, his injury history hurts his value. I never said otherwise. His 2017 and 2018 seasons were not "sub par." He's been pretty healthy for 3 years in a row. I think that helps his value more than missing 2015 & 2016 with injuries and sucking in 2014 (maybe due to an injury). IP (MLB & AAA) 68.2 2017 (4-1 1.55/ 1.000 in AAA in 29 IP) 71.1 2018 (2-1 3.90/ 0.867 in AAA in 30 IP) 71.2 2019 all MLB

Workman's 2017-2019 numbers: 17-3 2.59 (153 IP) 1.127 WHIP 5.9 H/9 0.8 HR/9 4.2 BB/9 10.5 K/9 3.52 FIP Craig Kimbrel 2017-2019 10-5 2.66 (152 IP) 0.934 WHIP 5.0 H/9 1.3 HR/9 3.4 BB/9 14.9 K/9 3.02 FIP

Mostly due to injuries. His career numbers are brought down by that horrific 2014 season (1-10 5.17/1.452 WHIP). That was long ago. He missed 2016 and parts of other seasons, but the two seasons prior to 2019, he was decent: 7-2 3.22 in 81 IP(1.210 WHIP) 8.2 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 If he could bring his BB/9 rate down, 5.7 in 2019, he could be great. He only allowed 3.6 H per 9 IP last year (7.4 career)! He had a 0.1 HR/9 rate (1 HR in 71.2 IP)!

I'm not fully against signing Puig, but his contract will limit what we can pick up at the deadline.

We could trade Chavis or Dalbec and a picther for a better pitcher. I'm not talking blockbuster. I'm talking about slowly building up the pitching staff with decent pitchers who have 2+ years of team control. Maybe trade Workman, Barnes or Hembree (Moreland?) to a contender for a pitching prospect. If Eovaldi is doing well, we could trade him for younger pitching.

Our offense is way better than our pitching. We will lose way more games because of our starters and our pen than lack of hitting. Yes, we could improve a few slots on offense, but we have massive holes (yes plural) in our rotation and pen. Rotation: With Sale and Eovaldi's health histories or recent troubles, we could be looking at 2-3 slots to fill, and I'm not just talking 2020. I'm thinking we need to look at finding a way to get a decent SP'er under team control beyond 2020 and hopefull beyond 2021 as well. I realize that is not as easy as picking up a decent 2Bman, but we did just acquire Downs,so I don't see 2B as a bigger need than SP'er- not even close. Pen: We have seen our pen over achieve the last few year than what was expected on paper. I've been a huge Workman fan, but I'm not sure he's going to do as well as 2019. Barnes declines, last year, for the first time in his career. Hembree has health issues. Walden seems to be pulling decency out of his ass, but maybe he'll continue doing well. Taylor looked very good last year, but are we really going to count on a repeat? DHern has enormous potential, but needs time to harness it. I don't think anyone counts on our pen as being top 10 or even top 15 in MLB. Other "weak links" in non pitching areas? Here's how I rank them: 1. 2B Pedey is toast- scratch him off even the miracle list. We do have a lot of options here. Granted, none look great, but a few show promise and we now have Downs for the long term future. (Pedey) Chavis Peraza Lin Arauz Marco Chatham Downs 2. Catcher: I don't see this as an area of big need.I am worried about Vaz's inconsistency at the plate and how almost every SP'er, except ERod does much worse with him than they did with Leon, but I seriously doubt we are even looking to use valuable resources to upgrade here. Vaz Plawecki Lucroy Centeno Wong CF/OF: Our OF depth is weak- no doubt, and with Verdugo's health an issue, and the need to keep JD at DH as much as possible, I can see wanting to sign Puig, but I'd rather save the money for a deadline trade for a pitcher under team control for 2+ years. Benintendi Verdugo JBJ Pillar (JD Martinez- DH) Puello Lin Moreland (emergency) Duran Jimenez Castillo (lux budget issue) Longhi Andreoli Sturgeon 1B: We can find serviceable 1Bmen for a dime a dozen, especially at the deadline. Moreland Chavis Dalbec Ockimey (could be a decent platoon) Witte Casas (far away) We are not upgrading SS or 3B.

Pitching Leaders in ST'ing WHIP (IP) 0.53 Brice 5.2 0.63 Eovaldi 8.0 0.67 Velazquez 3.0 0.86 ERod 7.0 0.88 Brewer 5.2 0.95 Johnson 6.1 1.00 Brasier 3.0 1.00 Weber 5.0 1.13 Walden 2.2 1.25 Reyes 4.0/ Taylor 4.0 1.50 Osich 4.2/Workman 2.2 Other notables: 1.67 Mata 3.0 1.71 Barnes 2.2/Shawaryn 2.1 2.00 D Hern 1.0 2.05 Houck 6.1 2.63 Hembree 2.2/M Peres 2.2 3.00 Poyner 2.0 3.33 Mazza3.1

Sox Leaders in ST'ing OPS (ABs) 1.362 Wong (10) 1.286 Castillo (21) 1.186 JBJ (22) 1.132 Plawecki (14) 1.121 Moreland (9) 1.077 Devers (13) 1.018 JD (20) .988 Duran (19) .945 Beni (15) .944 Lin (17) .905 Ockimey (21) .818 Chavis (20) Other notables: .775 Dalbec (22) .757 Pillar (22) .721 Wilson (19) .701 Arauz (21) Rule 5 .571 Peraza (21) .540 Downs (17) .435 Vaz (15) .349 Chatham (14) .209 Marco (17) .000 Bogey (7)

My point was about wanting to improve pitching- maybe not just for 2020 but beyond, even when pitching isn't a weakness. Pitching is a big weakness right now, so it should be our primary priority. That's not to say that if a deal falls in our lap that improves a non pitching area, we shouldn't do it, but with such limited financial and prospects available to upgrade any area, the focus needs to be, IMO, on pitching ONLY.

I've always been from the school of wanting to improve pitching, even if it's not a weak link. It is, now.

If your weakness is pitching, I think it's counterproductive to use your last available resources on hitting.

When a lot of small to moderate sample sizes all point the same direction, it is significant. The Price sample sizes are both pretty large: 204 IP to 360 IP. Porcello's 576 to 211 is, too. I admit the Buccholz (both over 130 IP) is not really that much, and Vaz's innings with Sale (84) is small, but when you combine it with Pom and Wright, and they all show very significant differentials all heavily in the same direction, there is true meaning to the numbers. ERod is the only one with pretty much no difference but with Vaz having a slightly better CERA.

Nobody had magic, last year. However, some had less magic than others: Porcello 4.44/.709 Leon 93 IP (Close to his career 4.36 ERA) 6.37/.885 Vaz 76 IP 13.50/1.338 Swihart 5 IP Sale 3.79/.622 Leon 116 IP (Not bad) 6.68/.956 Vaz 31 IP ERod & Price pretty much only threw to Vaz. Leon and Swihart had less than 10 IP with each. Vaz did much better with both. I'm not sad to see Leon go, and my post wasn't meant to be about him. It was in response to the post about Vaz "calling a good game." I don't see it.

Some are not small, and lots of small ones combined make a significant sample size for both catchers.

No mockery from me. Sandy was an overall plus for this team.