moonslav59

I don't, even if it means dumping Yoshida. He does play 1B/3B, but Yoshida is a better batter. I'd trade him and $12-14M for Contreras.

Agree on no Rafaela. I'm not sure how highly Cincy or anyone values Campbell, but he might be more highly values than Garcia. I'm not sure Cincy wants a pitcher back, but the guys you listed would certainly be of value. For Greene, I might offer: Abreu or Duran Campbell or Garcia Harrison, Dobbins or Perales. (Valera or Clarke?)

Gray still has a lot of value. We may get Arenado for Yoshida plus cash. Maybe W Contreras for Casas and Yoshida. Not Gray, unless we give some serious talent with Masa.

Skenes is still prearb. It does make sense to assume they will hold off on trading their only crowd drawing player. Of course, blow anyone away with an offer and they will listen, but can we afford a massive overpay to gain at the top of the rotation, only to open 3-4 big holes elsewhere? Now, the los cost of Skenes might afford us the chance to fill the two holes we already have plus the couple new ones opened up with this trade via free agency, but filling 4-5 holes, not 2-3 with $45M is a lot harder.

We might be one of the few teams in MLB that can offer two OF'ers... LHB: Duran or Abreu RHB: Garcia or Campbell (Rafaela is unlikely to be offered.) We can trade two and still have a solid 4 man OF plus Yoshida and maybe a returning Refsnyder. LF: Anthony or Duran CF: Rafaela RF: Abreu or Anthony 4th: Campbell or Garcia 5th: Yoshida and or Refsnyder

Our success with American players has been hit or miss, too. Success: Uehara, Okajima, Tazawa, Nomo Meh: Dice-K, Ohka Bust: Yoshida (Uwasawa was a miLB signing)

If Casas is thought to be ready, he should be considered as the DH with adding a 1B a higher need. Plus, this winter has a lot of 1Bmen on the open market.... all better on D than the fragile Casas.

While I do think PIT would highly value the prearb Abreu, he'd have to be the third best player in the package. Duran at just $8M is too expensive for PIT. If Abreu is part of the deal, it would have to start with Anthony and then Tolle or Early. 2 from Mayer, Tolle and Early plus Abreu would not be enough. Now, if we took back Brian Reynolds, maybe PIT starts listening to lower headliners. Include Keller, too and PIT would be saving over half their budget ($31M our of $60M projected.) I don't want Reynolds, even as our LF'er or DH, but getting 4 years of Skenes gets me interested. Would PIT take Duran, Campbell, Mayer, Tolle or Early for Skenes & Reynolds? (Sub Abreu for Duran, if they insist?) I'd say they would think about it and say no. They'd want Tolle & Early and maybe not Campbell but Garcia or Sandlin, instead could be offered. I'm not sure what adding Keller to the deal would mean, but he is no straight salary dump addition to the deal. Maybe... Abreu/Duran, Tolle, Early, Mayer, Campbell & Sandlin for Skenes, Keller & Reynolds. I know- I know these mega deals are head-spinners and highly unlikely, but helping PIT dump salary could be a way to lessen the return package hit on our roster and future.

The Sox don't need OF help, unless they trade 2-3 of them, so here are the top players by 2025 WAR that play infield or DH: 4.7 Schwarber (DH, maybe 1B) 3.6 E Suarez (1B/3B) NOPE 3.6 Muncy (3B, but has a $19M club option) 3.5 Bregman (3B/2B) 3.4 Alonso (1B/DH) 3.4 Bichette (SS/3B/2B) 2.9 Torres (2B) 2.6 Polanco (DH/2B) 2.4 O'Hearn (1B) Big drop off.... 1.6 Kiner-Falefa (SS/3B/2B) 1.2 Goldschmidt (1B), 1.1 Santana (1B)

Look what we gave up for Crochet, who had never pitched more than 140 IP and had a half of a great season once in his career. Teel was our #4, but only because we had Anthony, Campbell and Mayer. Teel would have been a #1 on many if not most other teams. Montgomery was our #5. Meidroth as #8 and Wikelman was #18. Early is our current #5 on soxprospects.com, but even if you call him our #2 or 3, there are no longer Anthony, Mayer and Campbell on the prospects list. I seriously doubt PIT listens to an offer of Mayer, Early, Campbell or Garcia & Perales. They will want Mayer, Early and Tolle, if Anthony is not the headline. That might not even be enough. Skubal has less control years, but I don't give up a mega package unless an extension is part of the deal.

Probably both. Anthony plus Tolle or Early and maybe even more, like Campbell, Garcia or Arias.

#2 and #4 could be one addition like Suarez. We could also trade for K Marte or sign Polanco to play 2B and have Mayer at 3B and solve the same problems. I'd put #2SP as my second priority but just barely ahead of adding a second power bat (1B, 3B, 2B or DH.) This may be the first winter in history that I have not said a solid SP'er is our #1 priority. 1. Power RHB (3B, 2B, 1B, DH) 2. Solid #2 SP 3. Power LHB or Switch hitter (2B, 1B, DH, 3B) I'd like to bring Matz back to the pen, but I think our pen will be fine. We will likely convert a couple SP'ers in our system to pen arms.

I have mentioned the Devers dump and short term Breggie deal as keeping the spending doubts alive, but we cannot deny the fact that spending habits have changed in the last year or two. We went several years after the Nate & Sale extensions/re-signings seeing very cheap spending trends. The Story and Yoshida signings were not all that large or long, and paled against the backdrop of losing Betts, JD, Price, Porcello and then Bogey with no comparable replacement spending. I'm not projecting more spending. None of us know what JH will do next, but a change has happened, and in my opinion, it began with the Devers extension and a one step up signing of Giolito to 2 years after only 1 year deals for years. There were also extensions given to Rafaela & Bello that we had not really seen in that manner, before. The Crochet deal was the biggest since the Sale trade, and his extension cannot be overlooked. He's making near Price money and for 5 years. Yes, the Devers dump undid much of what looked like a major step up, and the Bregman opt out clause could easily have just been a sham signing to quiet the knowledgeable Sox fans that were getting angry and vocal, but there was more spending than just Bregman and Devers. Buehler's $21M/1 deal was double the $10M/1 trend we had seen, and it was done in light of Gio still being on the books and a second significant signing of Sandoval to $19M/2- another non one year signing. While we stepped down on pen spending by replacing higher costing Jansen and Martin with Chapman & Wilson, we actually got more from them. To me, the extensions to Anthony and Campbell solidifies the position that a clear change has taken place, regardless of the Devers and Bregman losses. Again, JH might revert back to the 2020-2023 philosophy, and I will not be shocked. Upset, yes, but not surprised. As Frank Zappa would say, "I figure the odds be 50-50." on JH's winter budget plans. I'm holding out hope we spend at least up to the tax line, which might be $40-45M, and if we can somehow dump some salary from Yoshida or Hicks, or gain a few millions by trading Duran ($8M,) Campbell ($7.5) and or Rafaela ($6.3M) maybe we can spend over $50M and pay no tax. I would not be shocked if we spend up to the second line, since I have to think JH & Co. must recognize we have a wide open window for 2026 and beyond. A few targeted and successful additions could additions could get us to the top and for more than just 1-2 years. Some of us will be very angry, if they drop the ball.

They won't sign the best 5, so somebody will be left over. PHI will not let Ranger Suarez go, without replacing him, in kind. Other teams will be looking to buy pitching. I still think we trade for a SP'er and spend on a corner infielder (or two.)

Nice presentation. Very thorough. I'll add this guy to my wish list. I do think that if we sign him, we won't trade for another SP'er. We'll add just one pitcher to replace Gio & Buehler. Our SP'er depth will be counted on to fill the 3-5 slots.

The Tolle inclusion would be the roadblock, as would Early. Since the Reds don't need multiple SP'ers, it wouldn't help to instead offer 2 from Crawford, Dobbins, Fitts & Harrison or 1 SP'er and a choice of a RP'er from Sandlin, Bernardino, Kelly, Guerrero or Moran. I doubt adding DHam helps at all. You guys don't want 3-4 forty man roster players for Greene, and you are looking to win, now, so taking Valera, Clarke or Arias might not be a viable sub for Tolle. We could probably offer K Campbell, instead of Jh Garcia, but I'm not sure you'd view that as a big enough uptick to sub out another arm for Tolle. Duran, Campbell & Crawford/Dobbins/Harrison? (Add Sandlin?)

I like this format better than others. Sorting the Pitchers by WAR gives us an idea of who the better 2025 SP'ers were & some names not mentioned, yet: (age on opening day '26 & 2024 bWAR) 4.7 Ranger Suarez (30, 2.7 and over 2.3 for 5 straight seasons) 3.8 F Valdez (32, 4.4 and over 3.2 for 4 straight seasons) 3.3 A Houser (33, 0.9 and under 2.0 every season) 3.2 Z Littell (30, 2.8 and never above 1.0 before '24) 2.9 M Kelly (37, 1.1 in 13 '24 starts but 3.8 & 4.0 in '22 & '23) 2.3 Robert Suarez (35, 2.0) & Nick Martinez (35, 4.0) 2.1 Giolito (31, n/a), Bassitt (37, -0.1) & T Mahle (31, 0.1 & under 1.9 since '22) 2.0 Tyler Anderson (36, 3.0) 11 SP'ers over 2.0. All will be 30 or older. 6 will be 32 or older. Maybe the Sox will seek out a much older SP'er, in order to keep the deal short and provide some leadership to the young staff. 37 Merrill Kelly & Bassitt 36 Tyler Anderson 35 Robert Suarez or Nick Martinez

Sign: E Suarez, Merrill Kelly, Refsnyder and Matz. Trade Campbell, Tolle, DHam and Sandlin for K Marte. Trade Yoshida (owed $36M/2) +$10M and Casas for Willson Contreras (owed $41M/2) Trade Hicks, Wong & Mullins for Seam Murphy ____________________ 1. L Anthony LF 2. S K Marte 2B 3. R Story SS 4. R Suarez 1B 5. L Duran DH/ R Refsnyder DH 6. R Murphy C/ R Narvaez C 7. L Abreu RF/R Refsnyder RF 8. L Mayer 3B/ R Romy 3B 9. Rafaela CF

I hope you are wrong. JH spent a lot, last winter, and the window looks more open, now than it did last fall. Of course, if all JH cares about is giving the fans an impression we have a chance and no more, then he may pull back on spending, but I seriously can't imagine him not spending up to but below the tax line and resetting it. That still gives us over $40M (with Story's contract counted.) Sox fans aren't as dumb as he thinks.

Cespedes and Bleis?

Fair enough, but 8.1 is not too far from Lodolo's 9.0. (Lodolo's career is much better.) Greene's is significantly better than both.

Love the Vandy win over LSU, today! They are for real, this year. The #13 Domers play #20 USC at South Bend. It's their last tough game of the season, so a win should mean they are in, assuming they take care of business vs unranked teams.

Not even close, and the game was the clincher one, as well. Man-o-man!

Alcantara seems like a huge gamble, but I'm not sure what the asking price would be. I would not be happy, if he was the only addition to the rotation. I'm not sure why you don't like Abbott. The reason he's not mentioned is that he's their ace. I admit I don't know much about Burns, but Lodolo and Greene would be nice adds, to me. Lopez had arm trouble, but they say he's alright. I hesitate on guys like him, but yes, teh return package would be less than Joe Ryan's. Maybe add Lopez and Alcantara, but how much do we give up for both? I wanna keep Tolle and Early, so that might limit who we can get. Part of me thinks we should sign Merrill Kelly and trade for Marte. Use the rest of the money to sign a power bat, corner infielder.

We could add Crawford, Dobbins, Fitts or Harrison and take away some of the money added for Yoshida.