moonslav59

While I'm not expecting any big winter budget number, I'm going on the assumption we might spend up to the tax line without going over for the 2nd year. Depending on what site you visit, that means about $40-45M, assuming no salary trades. (I'm assuming no Nate Lowe but yes on Story returning.) If you figure we have 2-4 high need areas, that's not really enough to get all positions filled with high quality free agents, unless we get some luck involved. My idea is to use or depth to fill the 4th need, and trade from OF depth and some prospects for one of the top 3 needs. That leaves just 2 slots to be filled via free agency. That could be a $30M + $15M combo of $25M + $20M AAV combos. If we can somehow trade Hicks or Yoshida to save a few Million, we could up those numbers slightly. If we trade Duran $8M for Lodolo $4.5M, we'd add a little more. Campbell $7.5 for Gore $5M adds a little more. Maybe we can get the winter budget to $55-60M, this way, of JH could allow Brez to go up to the second line. Look at the difference in trying to sign 2 major FAs using SPOTRAC's AAV and having $40-45M vs $60-65M: $30M Alonso $28M Bregman $27M Ranger Suarez or Cease $25M Schwarber $23M Bichette $16M M Kelly or Bassitt $15M E Suarez, J Naylor, J Polanco $14M N Martinez, G Torres, Realmuto At $45M, maybe we can get Alonso & J Polanco or Torres At $55M: Alonso & Bichette At $65M: Alonso, E Suarez & J Polanco (+Matz) Trade for Lodolo & Gore I know, that sounds like crazy talk, but if Spotracks numbers are close, and we break the moratorium on large and long deals, we can do this is and stay under the line(s.)

He's got 3 arbs left. You want to go beyond 3?

I'd put him at +0.5, so yes, I kinda agree.

Not saying all these guys are available or realistic Sox targets, but here are some selected ERA- leaders from 2024-2025 (300+ IP- only 54 pitchers in sample size) 2. Skubal 57 3. Sale 59 5. C Sanchez 68 (Crochet is #6 at 72) 7. Nate 73 8. Hunter Brown 73 12. Peralta 77 13. R Suarez 79 14. Imanaga 80 15. Framber 82 17. Lugo 83 (Pivetta is #18 at 83) 19. Ryan 86 20. Wacha 86 22, N Martinez 87 24. Singer 90 26. Littell 92 (Bello is #28 at 93) 29. Quintana 94 31. Flaherty 95 32. Berrios 96 33. Bibee 96 34. Gore 97 35. Kikuchi 99 36. Cease 99 37. Keller 99 Bassitt 101, Gallen 102 Set the IP limit to 200 IP, and we have these additions (114 pitcher sample size) 5. Hunter Greene 63 8 C. Burnes 71 14. M Boyd 76 27. Tr. Rogers 84 38. M Kelly 88 40. Lodolo 90 44. P Lopez 91 (Houck is at 59 with 97) 60. E Cabrera & Lorenzen 97 66. S Gray 100

I wouldn't mind Singer, but I'm not overpaying for a one and done #3/4 SP'er. We need a 1/2 type. I'll overpay for that.

I'll believe it when I see it, and I don't expect to see it. The Sox did extend Devers, and I doubt they had dumping him in mind. They also extended Crochet to $170M/6, but that's not a FA signing. It is a long term commitment (over 5 years and over $100M for a pitcher.) Their last biggest SP signings were extending Sale ($145M/5) and re-signing Nate at $68M/4. Although signed near the same time, Sale's kicked in 2020- Nate's in 2019. That Price deal at $217M/7 was the shocker and very likely the outlier. This season, I don't see any SP'er worth going even 3+ years on, so I hope they extend their trend. I'm hoping (not expecting) we trade for a solid SP'er and sign one big bat and a second pretty good one. Maybe add Matz and Ref, if we can.

Gore has 2 arb years left. He had an ERA+ of 98 and 100 over the last 3 seasons. That being said, I'd give Campbell for him. I don't see him as the solid #2 SP'er I wanted, so I'd kinda want one along with Gore. That might mean deflecting or neglecting the big bats we really need. Of the nearly certain available SP'er, who is your #1 target? Ryan Gore Keller Gore (What about higher contract guys like Gray or Lopez?)

I fixed it for you.

It's hard to know what Cora would have done, but he did say he liked Bregman at 2B. IMO, the best set-up would have been 3B Bregman, SS Mayer, 2B Story, 1B Devers, DH Casas. If they were hellbent on Campbell over Mayer, then Campbell at 2B and Story at SS.

After all the real or fake runs at big names, I do think they felt a great need to make a show to the fans that they were not lying by signing Breggie. I'm not sure the sham worked, as it turned out to be just a one and done, and then shortly afterwards, they dumped Devers, so if anything, we are behind where we were before the Bregman signing, last winter. Way behind.

I'm not sure anyone offers him $140M/5, so maybe he settles on near $120M/4. The Tigers offered him $170M/6, last winter. That would come to about $140M/5, now or $115M/4, if pro-rated, and he's a year older and has a slightly higher injury risk factor.

He'll cost way more than Sandoval plus Paxton, but I agree. We need a major power bat. Position is secondary.

So, you believe 1 year of Breggie was the reason we dumped 8 years of Devers. Got it.

How about Campbell & Clarke (maybe add Sandlin) Garcia, Arias and Sandlin?

I hope we go hard after Alonso. Schwarber would be okay, although he's a DH. (Alonso should be, too.) Suarez or Bichette would help, but are more like sideways moves from Bregman.

You actually think this?

And, if we don't replace Bregman in kind, him too. And, if we don't replace Gio in kind, him too. And, if....

Yes. I don't recall any rumors linking the Sox to Gray. (Too bad.)

Good addition to the non 40 man roster.

They did for Bregman, Buehler, Chapman, Sandoval, Giolito and some lesser FAs under Brez, but as of yet- no major signing beyond $40M/1 for Breggie. I'll say it again, I expect nothing, this winter, but that does not mean I wont suggest things we should be able to do. We may very well spend $25-40M AAV, this winter. Maybe it will continue to be just 1-2 year deals, but I'm suggesting we go large on 2-3 guys not mildly significantly on 4-5. That will likely mean we go long on at least one guy, in order to get top quality, but maybe we get two more Breggie type deals, instead. (I'm highly doubtful they follow my suggestions.)

No, we don't know if Cincy will trade a good pitcher, other than maybe Singer, but we do have what they need, and they have what we need, so there is some logic to thinking something might get done. More likely, we trade for Ryan, Keller or Alcantara. Those are known teams looking towards the future. (They may not be looking for Duran, but rather our young pitchers, Campbell, Garcia or Arias.)

If we add two everyday players while subtracting Bregman (FA) and Duran (trade), our 13 players on the roster plus 4-6 on the 40 might be... C: Narvaez & Wong 1B: _____ (Casas AAA) 2B: _____ Romy/DHam 3B: Mayer (Eaton AAA) SS: Story (Sogard AAA) LF: Anthony (Campbell AAA) CF: Rafaela RF: Abreu & Jh Garcia DH: Yoshida That's 17 players, not counting Grissom (DFA) or a 3rd catcher.

He wasn't offered that silly amount last winter. I'm not sure what changed? Inflation? Maybe Age. Yes. Health outlook? Yes (for the bad.)

If the Mest don't bring Alonso back, I think Philly gets one and the other might be someone we can outbid other teams for, since the Dodgers probably won't sign a DH/1Bman type. They'll go for Tucker or Bichette and Cease or Framber.

Several of us wanted him.