moonslav59

Don't forget the K Campbell OF option. He could play LF vs LHPs while Anthony gives Abreu or Duran the day off.

The way Romy hit LHPs better than DHam, last year, maybe Romy starts most games. Career vs RHP: DHam .667 and Romy .616, but that career .616 is almost identical to DHam's 2025 split vs R (.618.) If Romy can repeat .716 v RHPs, again, like he did in 2025, he may end up our FT 2Bman, assuming no moves are made and K Campbell doesn't get another 2B look.

Word is the Sox are shopping Hicks, and some are interested in Bello & Sandoval. Common denominator? All have AAVs around $9M or more. That leads me to think money limits are in place and maybe that affected the Breggie offer. Maybe the Ranger signing was made with the idea that budget cuts would be made afterwards, to help pay for him. Maybe it's to make room for a signing or two- like E Suarez or a couple RP'ers. Word is we are looking for catching help, too. (Source: MLBTR)

Equal to your "GO FISH" comment.

1. I would not call misjudging if it was a bluff or not a "botch." It happens all the time. 2. More importantly, my main point is that the possible limits placed on Brez concerning NTC, deferments and top dollar offer are unknown, so getting Breggiie might have been impossible. This doesn't change the narrative, to you? Again, maybe Brez botched it. Maybe the real botch was spening on Contreras or Gray, instead of Breggie. IMO, spending on Ranger was a better idea, so I don't count that as a possible "botch."

I mentioned Crawford over Bello, because he is cheaper, and maybe they like him better as a pitcher, just as you do. If both Crawford and Bello are at full health, I probably like Kutter more, too. Our offense is in such high need of help, that I now think trading from pitching depth makes more sense than trading Duran. While I hate the concept or DH'ing Duran, when his value to another team should be much greater as an OF'er, we simply need his bat. Besides, pitching is more widely sought after, and teams are nearing desperation points on adding a SP'er. There are a few FA SP'er dominoes to fall, and maybe that is what is holding back trades that might already be agreed upon or close to being done. I love having top SP'er depth, and it this is something the Sox rarely have. Couple that with the fact that by nearly all accounts, we have the best starting 5 in MLB. That gives us enormous advantages in trade talks that few team can match: We could trade two SP'ers and maybe not miss a single value point, as the others would step in and give equal value, when needed to pitch. For example, we could trade Crawford and Harrison and watch 2 from Oviedo, Sandoval, Early or Tolle have better seasons. Hell, all 4 might! Just get it done. It doesn't have to be today. Maybe after Framber, Gallen, Gio and a couple other sign, the trade market for SP'ers will get red hot.

I'd be first in line saying Brez muffed the winter, if that happens. (I would word it differently: Mayer at 3B and DHam/Romy at 2B.)

That's why I think we end up with Donovan.

Agreed, but when paired with Romy, who would have to hit against a few RHPs, too, their combined OPS might project to .775 to .800, or better if you think both can improve. I'd be okay with a Mayer/Romy platoon at 2B- not so much at 3B, but it would be bearable, as long as we get a more than capable player to play 3B or 2B, and we don't create a new hole to get that guy. The position we are in is not ideal. We still have two major holes, and it looks like filling only one is possible: getting a decent 2B/3Bman by trading from our logjam areas (OF/ SP depth.) Forget about the big, power RHB. That will have to be Contreras doing the best he can to limit the loss of power and offense from losing Devers, Breggie, Ref and to a lesser extent N Lowe.

One word: Devers

For the last time, I don't have a position and am not defending anything except maybe the truth, but since the truth is unknown, I have no position on who botched what. If someone said Brez had nothing to do with losing out on Bregman, I'd question that just as much. Blaming anyone before all the facts are known is wrong in my book. That being said, I do think if the "by all accounts" reports are true, Brez did look comical or "funny" as I have stated before. He called a bluff and lost, perhaps. That's kinda funny in poker, but not so funny, if it's your money lost. It's not unreasonable to think Brez thought BorA$$ was bluffing, but at the same time had limits that disallowed movement on 1, 2 or all 3 of the areas the Cubs beat his offer. To claim Brez is to blame is to believe he could have moved on enough of those areas to equal or top the Cubs offer and get Breggie to sign. Maybe his buffoonery did botch even that idea, as he pissed Breggie off by enough to sign with the Cubs, anyway. That is possible, too. How does anyone know the facts needed to determine if Brez had the capabilities to up the offer in just enough areas and by just enough to get Breggie to BOS? Show me those facts and I'll be driving the Bumbling Brez Botched it wagon. Now, if someone wants to argue that had he not traded for and paid over $20M each for Gray and Contreras, he'd have had enough resources to offer more money and less deferred money to Bregman, you'd have a point to be debated. I might even agree with that, but the NTC issue would still be an unknown aspect on deciding who is to blame, if Breggie said no based on just that. See it the way you want. I don't know if what Brez did and didn't do was all his fault. It very well could be. I agree he is a poor communicator, but an offer is an offer, and usually the words aren't what gets a guy to sign or not. Our offer fell short in 3 key areas. That seems factual. It seems those areas mattered to Breggie & BorA$$. If Brez had the power to solve the needed issues, then yes, it's on him. (And, I'd still say we grossly overpaid, and I'd rather have Ranger.)

So, is it JH or Brez, because you sure made it sound like Brez had the capability to top all 3 aspects of the Cub offer, and that is why he "botched it." I'm not claiming he didn't botch it. I'm claiming that not knowing what the limits put on him were, I'm holding back assigning blame for coming up short. More importantly to me, I'd rather have Ranger Suarez even at the Bregman offer level, so I'm not losing sleep over losing Bregman. I am losing sleep over the big hole we have in the infield, while the two logjam we have on the roster remain a tangled overabundance of talent that will force some to be on the bench or misused off position. If you you were to find out, and by you I mean everybody that thinks it was Brez who let Breggie get away, that the NTC was non negotiable, the differed money was need for tax purposes and was not negotiable and or the dollar amount offered was the highest amount he was permitted to go, would you still blame Brez for it? These are not some half-baked constructions on my behalf. These were the all accounts issues that led to the Cubs winning the negotiations. Yes, it sucks watching us lose every one of these things, but that anger does not change facts, and we don't know all the facts.

Yes, that was my point. Sure, some people questioned trading for an injured player, but I doubt anyone hated the deal.

I get that point. Masa might hit .800. Even .765 might beat Suarez.

I feel the same way, but my question remains unanswered. I feel like the anger is causing us to get mad at someone, and the GM is always the scapegoat. IMO, we should have signed Alonso, but the Breggie leadership thing had real value. To me, Breggie was not an improvement, and he's getting older, but he sure is better than DHam at 2B.

Is it possible they both wanted him to stay, and the offer was the best they could do? The part that makes me think it's possible is that there were 3 areas where maybe just MAYBE one limit placed on Brez might have been enough to keep the deal from happening. The money The NTC The deferred money (or AAV)

I'm not even sure I like the idea. I was just looking for a way to not get one big bat but to get two and make em fit, while affording it. It got complicated.

If you can't even say, if that was the highest he could go, or think it's possible he could never offer a NTC, then you and I have different criteria for making up our minds and placing what sounds like unconditional blame on someone.

I can see JH giving Brez some flex or maybe a pretty set budget, especially AAV, and Brez can move around the pieces to make it work, as in he could have signed Breggie had he not paid so much for Gray or Contreras, but I can certainly see JH drawing the line at the third tier, and the Breggie deal, with no deferrals puts us dangerously close to that "limit." My whole position is basically having no position, because we just don't know. Even if the whole "all accounts" breakdown of how that talks went down is 100% true, nto knowing what the budget limit was, who demanded a contract without a NTC and how much the deferrals were a JH demand or a Brez preference. I can see that whole deferral thing as being all about the AAV and the tax budget, and that is a hint, to me, that Brez has some sort of tax budget firm limit. I could be wrong, but I'm not pretending it is a fact, so I just keep saying, we don't really know enough to think Breggie is not hear because of how Brez handled the talks. He may have been a 100% buffoon but still never had a chance at getting a signature. Can you agree that is at least possible? To totally discount any chance of this is reckless, IMO.

I think Donovan should be about 22-26. Casas has enormous upside, but I think 7 might be too high. Crawford has a lot of questions to answer but seems about right. DHam was at 1 a couple weeks ago and now is at 4. I'd do that trade, too, but only because we just added Ranger and Crawford might be pushed to the pen. I'd prefer other options to Donovan, especially ones with 3+ years of control. I'd prefer a RHB, too. He'd be fine, though, although our power need would still be our biggest wish.

I'm pretty sure multiple studies show OBP is a very predictive stat. It's worth more than SLG and/or ISO.

Sandoval was the only guy on that list that has not been good since 2022. That cuts down on his trade value (see #2 on my major valuation criterias.)

Again, that plan involved Masa going to the Mets to offset the Duran advantage over Baty, The DH job would go to Suarez.

It's hard to know how much other teams value players like Harrison, Casas and Romero. I have to think Casas would be "selling low," but who knows. BTV has Donovan at 31. They have Casas at 7, Harrison at 5 & Romero at 4. That comes to half his value for 2 years of control. BTV accepts Crawford 20, Casas 7 and DHam 4.

Yes. There are many ways to view a SP'er, but two major ways are: 1) What is your potential (and what have you shown you can do over an extended period of time, and if it's in the minors add speculative potential) 2) What have you done for me, lately- at times, we can even think you are only as good as your last start (or two.) If you look at our SP'ers one-by-one, number 1's view looks rather astounding, by taking the best periods of time for each guy or read the scouting reports on guys like Tolle & Early. Crochet: looks great on #1 and #2. He's a top 4-5 SP'er in MLB, right now. No stats are needed to make that claim. Suarez: has had a very nice recent 2 year stretch, so he checks box 1 & 2. His 2 year ERA is 3.33 (129 ERA+) and a supporting FIP of 3.29. That's close to ace or #1 territory. Sonny Gray may not look great with #2, but he has been damn good very recently, despite his age. From '22 to '23 he had a 2.90 ERA (144 ERA+) and a 3.05 FIP, That is #1 territory, but it was 2-3 years ago. His 3.6 fWAR, last year gives hope he can go one more year. Houck could be ignored, since he's not in the 2026 mix, but it needs to be pointed out that he was our ace 2 years ago and started 2025 as our clear #3. He went almost 180 IP in '24 with a 3.12 ERA (133 ERA+) and 3.32 FIP. That's damn good! Crawford looked real good in 2023: 4.04 (113) with a decent 3.83 FIP. His 1.11 WHIP was very nice, that year. Sandoval was damn good before his injury. In 2022 his ERA was 2.91 (138) with a 3.09 FIP. He was pretty good in 2021, too. Bello had his best ERA (3.35) and ERA+ (123) last year, but the 4.19 FIP in both 2024 and 2025 hint that maybe he's not all that great, but as a #4/5 SP'er, he's more than capable. Harrison & Oviedo are mostly on the speculative side or hope. Tolle & Early have enormous hope.