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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    I think most of those suggesting we dump Yoshida or Hicks recognize the need to pay 60-80% of their salary or take back a sunken contract to offset the sunken cost sent away. (Or, include value with other players that some rich team wants badly enough to take on some or most of the contracts.) If we are walking a tip rope on the winter budget, like most of think we are, then "saving" a few $Million, even if just $3-4M AAV might be just enough to get an Alonso, instead of Suarez or Polanco, a Suarez or Polanco, instead of a Hoskins or Naylor, etc... A simple trade of Duran for Lodolo saves $3.5M AAV. That does not sound like much, but $48M vs $45M is better, $33M vs $30M is better and $23M vs $20M is better. I'm not predicting we trade either. The types of deals I have suggested all seem flawed, to me. I doubt it can be done, unless we take on more salary than we give up. Most teams looking to dump salary, do not want sunken salary in return, even if it's less.
  2. moonslav59
    Lowe was a useful addition that cost us next to nothing but cash. Dom Smith was another one, but we've had so many failures on these "temporary solutions" at 1B and 2B, that it feels to me that we need to make a bold move to try and fix one of the two positions, once and for all. No, Mayer should not be viewed as a "once and for all" solution. He may end up being one, but we have an opening a 3B, too, so we could still add a legit 2Bman and not block Mayer.
  3. moonslav59
    I fully understand this and expect nothing. That being said, they did spend a lot, last winter and paid lip service to "adding" more and "improving" the team. I've been trying to limit the sights to not going over the tax line. MVP suggests we can for year 2 then reset for 2027 (year 3.) The tax line is about $45M away in AAV. If we follow the past model, that may come in the form of only short term deals- perhaps one like Breggie's and maybe 1-2 more, or maybe 4-5 guys at $10-13M each. I will not be surprised if we add Hoskins and trade Duran and others for Ryan and a claim that he team is better and "will win more," without Breggie, Gio, Matz and Ref. This will not stop me from suggesting what I think SHOULD be done, and I know you are not telling me not to do that, but I want to say it again. There is a difference between what I suggest and what I expect, and I know what the team does and thinks is "all that counts."
  4. moonslav59
    I see this as status quo. It's an uptick at 1B, but Breggie for Breggie and maybe Ryan for the '25 Gio are not upgrades. Once again, we will be relying on the kids to improve in major ways, or all in significant ways, and less injuries. You are the one saying we can and should spend more and then present a budget plan that looks like less than 2025. The AAV on Bregman is not going up. Okamoto is not going to cost $45M AAV. Why are we spending only half the amount below the tax line, here?
  5. moonslav59
    I'm now convinced you are a commie!
  6. moonslav59
    Based on how well we do with comp picks, maybe we should have just let him walk without a trade. Then, once COVID hit, and his final deal was not much higher than our offer, maybe we end up keeping him. (I know- dream on... Not gonna happen with Bloom & Co.)
  7. moonslav59
    Yes, I agree. I don't see Brez and Co doing this, but we COULD do it or something very similar on a restricted AAV budget, but it would have to involve flicking the switch to giving out 1-2 longer term deals. Suarez will not get a long deal from anyone. Someone like Merrill Kelly won't either. We could (not will) sign Schwarber, Suarez and Kelly and make a trade not involving Duran to get Ryan- something like Campbell, Arias, Clarke and Sandlin? Crochet, Ryan, Kelly, Bello and 8 guys fighting for #5. Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert and 8 guys fighting for the next 4 slots 1. L Anthony LF 2. L Schwarber DH 3. R Suarez 3B 4. L Abreu RF 5. R Story SS 6. L Duran CF 7. R Narvaez C 8. L Mayer/ R Romy 2B 9. R Romy/L Casas 1B Bench: Wong, Rafaela, Romy, Garcia/Yoshida/Sogard
  8. moonslav59
    No, they would not "go for" a immediate bump like that, but to get an upper cap, they might have to agree to some sore of floor cap. They gotta give somewhere, and I gotta think they realize the game would get better if the lower teams spent more. Taking away revenue sharing as penalties for not spending is another way. It would be like telling a team, "Here is $30M, but you have to raise your budget $25M to get it."
  9. moonslav59
    The key is to lock 'em up BEFORE they become superstars, even if you guess wrongly on a few.
  10. moonslav59
    There was the option of signing Betts as a FA, if they did not trade him. Knowing JH & Co. that was not happening, but Betts going to free agency was not to get away from BOS. It was to make the most money, and he barely made more than the Sox final offer. It was about the Sox not wanting to pay a penny more. Oh, and by the way, letting players walk to free agency has mostly worked out better than the Betts trade. Betts for Wong & Verdugo (Weissert, Fitts and Judice) & Jeter "Busty" Downs. Comp Pick for losing... O Cabrera> Ellsbury & Lowrie Damon> D Bard Beltre> JBJ Ellsbury (from OCab)> Kopech ERod> Roman Anthony Bogey> K Campbell Pivetta> Godbout Gotta look at the whole picture and the underlying contexts.
  11. moonslav59
    I don't think anyone is implying this the deal looks any better. Nobody is happier about it, now. But hey, Wong declined, too!!!!
  12. moonslav59
    Drew even said it would take Anthony plus.
  13. moonslav59
    MLB.com thinks... Sandlin and Bleis are all but sure to be protected. All teams must set their 40-man roster by Nov. 18.
  14. moonslav59
    Highest K% (60+ IP) w BB% 37 Tolle (6) 32 Early (10) 32 Travieso (13) 30 Mullins (12) 30 Rivera (13) 29 Mata, Rogers & Fajardo
  15. moonslav59
    Sox xFIP Leaders (70+ IP) 2.52 Tolle 2.94 Anderson 2.95 Early 3.15 Fajardo 3.17 Holobetz 3.33 E Rivera 3.43 D Rogers 3.44 Mullins 3.51 Sansone 3.59 Sprague 3.61 Aita FIP 2.47 Fajardo 2.73 Early 2.74 Tolle 3.03 Rogers 3.23 Rivera 3.25 Holobetz
  16. moonslav59
    Now wait, how did you get Greene without losing Anthony? Adding $20 + $3.5M for trading Duran for Lodolo and.... (Trade Hicks & $5M to save $7M AAV.) $25M Schwarber $15M Suarez $15M Polanco $7M Hoskins 1. L Anthony LF 2. R Schwarber DH 3. S Polanco 2B 4. R Suarez 3B 5. R Story SS 6. L Abreu RF 7. R Hoskins 1B 8. R Narvaez C 9. R Rafaela CF
  17. moonslav59
    Always. A trade might be, too.
  18. moonslav59
    No, no, no- look away from the position column. (BTW, Bellinger can play 1B, too.)
  19. moonslav59
    Bregman is not that great of a hitter, and 2025 might have been his last hurrah for decent O. Of course, he's younger than Suarez, but I'd put Suarez over Breggie for 2026 and probably 2027, too. Schwarber & Tucker Alonso Gap Suarez & Polanco Gap Bregman/Bichette/Bellinger Gap Naylor/Hoskins
  20. moonslav59
    Probably right, but we did get Crochet without giving up a top 3.
  21. moonslav59
    Going by Spotrac's numbers and a possible $45M budget, maybe this is the best we could do: 24.9 Schwarber 15.0 Suarez 7.0 Hoskins 4.0 Matz Duran($8M) K Campbell ($7.5M) & Sandlin for Greene ($8.3M) saves $7M and adds $7M to the $45M winter budget suggested above.
  22. moonslav59
    We could do this and hardly any one we give up is being counted on for big 2026 production, but I think the extended future is a great priority to this organization. Like the Crochet trade, I think we could see immediate boost by doing another blockbuster or two, and when you get players with 3+ years of control, or extend them, then it can be about the outlook AND the here and now. I'm thinking the most we could even dream of is Marte & Lodolo and then a major signing like Schwarber or Alosno, but more likely it might be Suarez on a 2-3 year deal.
  23. moonslav59
    They probably are, but maybe not by more than $5M AAV, and it depends on the years. I would give Schwarber $30M AAV before Bellinger, so I think they are off in some areas.
  24. moonslav59
    We could probably get Greene and K Marte, but more likely K Marte & Lodolo. I'm not sure Brez & Co want to part with that much younger value to get 2, but if they want to go cheap, it is one alternative way to add the high quality we need. (KMarte is not cheap.)
  25. moonslav59
    According to SPOTRAC, these are the AAV market values of the besteveryday players on the FA Market: (Actually, Polanco is listed as player option) 40 Tucker 30 Bellinger 29 Alonso 28 Bregman 25 Schwarber 23 Bichette 15 Naylor, Suarez, Polanco 14 Gurriel. Arraez, Torres 13 Ozuna, Realmuto 12 Grisham 11 O'Hearn, Yaz, Bell, Castro 10 Rengifo, Bader 8 S Marte, Kepler 7 Goldschmidt, Mullins, T Pham, Conforto 6 M Andujar, C Santana, J McCann 5 C Taylor, Kiner-Falefa, Moncada 4 G Sanchez, Refsnyder, A Frazier
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