moonslav59

I loved Bob Seager. Seriously, though, Seager is still really good, when healthy. He'd be a nice get and with Story at 2B, we'd be better. The guy turns 32 in April. He'll turn 37 in his last year of his contract. We can't get JH to signing anyone to more than 5 years, except Story, but he was "only" $140M. We'd need some sore of money balance to even start talks on a trade. Maybe TEX takes Masa and leaves the back-end for us to pay fully. I'm just not sure Brez and JH want that burden all the way to the end of 2031. It's hard to know what TEX wants, and if they are in full rebuild mode, maybe they don't need ML ready prospects like most teams want. Would you do Masa, Hicks, Campbell and DHam for Seager and no future cash?

Gray will likely finish the 2026 2nd or 3rd in IP on the Sox. In terms of WAR, he may finish anywhere from #2 to #5 or 6.

I'm not thrilled with Gray as an only addition to the rotation. I do think I disagree with your take on the rest of the rotation. I would prefer more quality than quantity, but decent/promising quantity is not a bad thing. I think we have Crochet, Bello and Gray who are solid SP'er expected to start 28-33 games and go 160+ IP. We should be able to fill the 4 & 5 slots with a couple decent pitchers. Sure, we can scour the recent trends, injury reports and selected sample sizes of poor pitching, but we all know projecting what we'll get from these guys is near impossible. I'm worried that we may have to go through 6-7 pitchers to finally find the two that do well enough, and by then, we've lost 10-15 more games than we might have had we found the right two in the first week of the season. I can find very nice stretches in the careers of Sandoval, Crawford, Dobbins and Criswell. Some, like Criswell and Dobbins are their most recent starts. Sandy & Crawfish were from more distant pasts. Then, we have 3-4 promising young guys like Harrison, Early, Tolle and Perales. That's 8 guys for 2 slots. No doubt, I'd love to have another solid SP'er, but I think we are running with what we have, now. Of course, if we trade Crawford and Harrison in a package for a bat (maybe with Duran and or Campbell,) then maybe we have another SP deal in mind- like Alcantara, Gore or M Keller. I doubt we'll see Ryan or Lodolo or better. Get us KMarte and Alonso and I can live with Sonny Gray and nobody else.

It's not like Agon lit the world on fire, either.

We have over 10 SP'ers. The problem is 6-7 have serious questions. We need a #2 and the rest would have been okay. We do not need two #3's, but that might be all we might get. (I doubt we add another SP'er, but maybe someone like Gore or Alcantara?) 1. Crochet 3/4: Bello & Gray 4/5: Sandoval, Crawford 5/6: Harrison, Dobbins, Early, Tolle That's 9 already.... 6/7: Perales, Criswell 7/8/9: Uberstine, Drohan Okay, 10 might be pushing it, but these 6-9's might be 4-6's on many teams. Our 5/6 would be 4/5's on most teams. Our 3-5's might be 2's and 3's on many teams. We needed a co-ace and 2 big bats. Spending $21M on a non #2 seems overboard, but Cease just got $26M x 7, so....

They should hand Seager away for almost free. He's got 6 years left! I wouldn't give Tolle, Masa & Hicks for him, unless they added cash for the last 4 years after Masa and Hicks deals end.

Two total duds. Arenado can play D but sucks on O. Masa can hit but sucks on D. Arenado $30M x 2 AAV. Masa $18M x 2 AAV. Throw in Hicks and it evens the money up and opens a roster slot for a signing.

I certainly agree we coulda-shoulda done better for a #2. I seriously doubt we add a #2, now. We have to make it up with 2 megabopper bats,

That would make our winter task harder

Damn long for a guy coming off an "off year."

$26M x 7! WOW! Wonder if they can afford Bichette, now.

If you only look at ERA, and that's not a bad choice, yes, he's not a 2 or maybe even a 3. If you look at FIP, xFIP, K%, BB% and some other numbers, he looks like a #1 or 2. I think 4/5 is harsh. 2/3 is about right. Maybe low side of 2, if kinda pusing it, but high side of 3 is not. IP count for value, too. Even in 2025, he was 20th in fWAR out of every SP'er in MLB, That rates as a #1.

He bases his whole belief system on "facts," and the only facts are errors made, and Duran's brief moment in the sun in CF, 2 years ago. I do think Rafaela would be great in RF, too, but why boot Abreu out. It doesn't make sense. Duran is not even a plus on D in LF, anymore.

He costs $21M not $41M. The rest is true. The guy is great with Ks and BBs. I'm not sure that's all we needed.

I'm not sure any GM likes DHam that much, but I'd jump for joy, if TBR said yes. Hell, I'd throw in Sandlin. (They might demand Casas.) I like Bichette, but is he really "THE GUY" we end up finally going large and long on? I like the age. I'd like him at 2B, but I really want Story going there (not happening.) He does not have the power I want, but if we get him and Alonso, GREAT! I don't think we can afford both. I hope that not trading any big pieces to get our #2 SP'er, we'll have enough to offer AZ for Ketel Marte. He has the power we need and fill the 10 year void we've had at 2B. His AAV is just $19.4M, so we would have enough for another big signing- maybe Alonso. I'm probably dreaming, again.

Yup. Crawford led the team in GS (33) and IP (184) in 2024. His ERA slipped to 4.36, but that was not far from Gray's 2025 ERA. Crawford '23-'24 56 GS, 313 IP and 4.23 ERA (102 ERA+) Gray '24-'25 60 GS, 347 IP and 4.07 ERA (101 ERA+) Dobbins is a question mark but looked good in his 11 GS in '25. 61 IP and 4.13 ERA (100 ERA+)

Pie in the sky, getting Bregman or Bichette plus Alonso will be near $60-70M AAV. I think that puts us over the second line, unless we shed salary. Masa (18) and Hicks (12) are the fan faves to dump, but at best we would only dump a small fraction or either one. More likely, we could trade an OF'er (Duran at 7.7 or KC at 7.5 or maybe Rafaela at 6.3.) That may be enough to sneak us under line 2. More likely, if we do sign a big bat, it will be trade for 1 and sign one, with the trade not adding a bunch of cost.

It feels like that is a given, but with these guys, we never know. We did just spend more money on a SP'er than many felt we would, but that could just mean less for batters.

TEX will have to give money, but how much?

The NCAA updated poll came out, last night. ORE jumped Ole Miss, but all else stayed the same. 1. Ohio St, 2. IN, 3. TEX A&M (no losses) 4. GA, 5. TEX Tech, 6. ORE, 7. Ole Miss (1 loss teams) 11. BYU (10-1) Above teams seem safe for top 12, even if they lose, except BYU. ________________________________ 8. OKL, 9. ND, 10. ALA, 12 MIA (2 loss teams) Teams on the outside with a shot: 13. UT (at KA maybe not enough to jump up) 14. Vandy (at #19 TN could get them to #12) 15. Mich (at Ohio St. could get them to #12.) (8-3 TEX & USC are too long shots to discuss. 9-2 VA, too) Upsets needed: 9 ND at Stanford 10 ALA at AUB 11 BYU v UCF 12 MIA at 22 PITT ________________________ Likely Conference Championships: TEX A&M v ALA (ALA out with loss?) Ohio St v IN (even if OSU loses to I & IN, they probably are in) Tex Tech v BYU (BYU would be out with a loss)

Spotrac has the Sox Payroll at $148M (9th ranked.) The have our average age at 29.3, which is lower than any top 15 spending team. cots figures in player benefits and arb estimates has us at $217M, which is $27M under the first line and $47M under line two. Assuming Brez can spend $30-45M up to opening day, how do we add two big bats on that? I've mentioned this a couple dozen times, so pardon the repetition, but trading Duran ($7.7M) and Campbell ($7.5M) for K Marte ($19.4M) only adds about $4M to the tax line. That would leave $25-40M to spend on a megasigning like Alonso or Schwarber, but more likely Bregman or Bichette. I suppose we could keep Duran and Campbell and trade Mayer as the centerpiece, and make them take Hicks to cut costs, and KMarte would add $7M. Then maybe we sign Alonso and Polanco, but that gets us close to line two, and we have Polanco at 3B and probably Duran at DH. Hmmm...

You think out offense is better without him? Our DH numbers plummeted after his loss. I get the mantra that 300 more PAs from Anthony can take up some of the slack, but What about the full 850 or so PAs lost by Devers and Bregman? And then Ref and Lowe? .905 Devers in 334 PAs .838 Ref in 209 PAs .821 Bregman in 495 PAs, (even bringing Breggie back of .780ish Bichette is not replacing in kind.) .790 Lowe in 119 PAs These 4 guys are the equivalent of 2 players at 550+ PAs. We need 2 bigs bats. I'm fine with one being a sideways signing like Bregman or Bichette to replace Bregman & Lowe (.800ish) But, we need a .900 hitter to replace Devers and Ref. In a sense, doing both just keeps us at status quo. Maybe some young guys step up, but we could see downturns from Story, Duran, Rafaela and Narvaez. We could also see the dreaded "Sophomore Slump."

While I agree, fully, are you not worried about a 100 ERA- in a large sample size like 2024-2025? ERA- factors in a few things that ERA does not. I know you value things like FIP and K-BB types of numbers, and I respect that. You also know a lot more about barrell rates and other numbers that go right over my head. I think Gray is a better pitcher than his 100 ERA- indicates, but I also think he's not as good as some of the other numbers show him to be. IMO, he has been a decent #2 SP'er the past 2 seasons, and we needed a #2. I had hoped we did better, but if we fill the two big bat needs well enough, I'm fine with this move. I do worry about how well he does at age 36. I do not worry so much about the while "under the spotlight wilting" talk. I hope he gives us 180+ IP and an ERA- better than 100. I'd like better than 90.

I thought it was more about all the Sox-LAD trades. The Brez sample size is tiny.

It's hard to know if he "hit a wall." of if it was something else, including just a prolonged slump. His drop off was and still is worrisome, but not to the point where signing Realmuto jumps priority over other higher needs. Also, are we so sure it was some sort of ran out of gas situation? He actually did better over his last 26 games and 92 PAs (almost 1/4 of his total) than he did in his first 3/4. .751 after August 21st .718 before August 21st. Yes, he was over .800 for much of the first 3 months of the year, so first half>second half, yes there was a sharp drop, but if it was due to fatigue, why did he do better over the last 5-6 weeks of the season? .750 is damn good for a catcher and about 30 points higher than the whole MLB OPS.