moonslav59

The Devers extension kicked in in 2024. It marked a change in spending big to keep young stars, but not so much on the budget. The $8M gain from 2023 to 2024 is not all that noteworthy, but it was significantly higher than 2021. The jump from 2024 to 2025 was one of the largest jumps under JH, and if he hadn't dumped Devers, it would have been more. (Note: I made a point of saying much of the uptick seen from JH was "undone by the Devers dump," and this offseason is not over, so that undoing might not be rectified.) I'm not making a prediction on 2026. I'm just saying some highly significant changes in spending philosophies have occurred since the Devers signing. Do you disagree with that? Linking the start of the devers extension period in 2024 to the 2019-2023 period seems as off as linking 2025-2026 to 2003.

The thing that gets me is not the actual second line, it the idea that JH seems to only like to go over the first line by less than a $1.5M tax. He seems to hate paying taxes more than higher salaries with low AAVs, even if the tax is less than the salary-AAV number. (I have no evidence for this, but it seem to be true.) Of course, the 2018 and 2019 seasons had massive ax hits- way more than seasons from the early and mid 2000's and 2010's. I do agree that maybe that second line is not as important as I thought, before. The tax rate does bump up some, but I think it's only on the dollars spent over the second line, so that's kinda minimal.

It's happened a lot, and Cora seems to delight in the idea, so I'm already used to it. Injuries happen. They will in 2026. My point is, we look to have FT or near FT players for every position, including the non-platooned Abreu in RF, as Cora suggested, as well.

We probably will shuffle, and injuries will dictate a lot. I think Cora has stated he really wants Rafaela to stay in CF, and I think h means it, but if we don't add a quality 2B/3Bman, or someone (Story/Mayer) gets hurt, yes, that could change. Maybe Romy and campbell get the first shot on the IF depth chart- maybe not. I do think our team, barring injuries, is also set up for almost every slot to be FT or near FT. The big if to me is Duran at DH. With no quality IF added, much changes.

Nobody is disagreeing that spending was cut and things changed after 2018 or 2019. No, it's not complicated unless you choose to argue with strawmen. Have you also noticed a significant uptick in spending since the Devers extension? Is 2025-2026 really that similar to 2029-2020 and maybe the next 3-4 years? When you said "today" you meant 2019 to 2026? All of it? I'd say the difference between 2025-2026 and 2020-2024 is wider than the difference between 2020-2024 and 2003. We have seen some big changes since the Devers extension- some of them historic: $313M/10 Devers extension blows all extensions away, as well as prices $217M/7 FA deal back in 2017. The extension kicked in for 2024, so from 2024 to today- 2 seasons and 3 offseasons counting this one. The Crochet trade rivals the Sale, Beckett and Pedro trades. The Crochet extension, both in terms of years and dollars rivals the Sale and any other extensions given out, except the Devers one from the same time frame I am presenting. $40M AAV to Bregman blows all other Sox AAVs away by a longshot. $21M AAV given to Buehler was the most since the Sale extension. The most given to a FA SP'er since Price. When was the last time we extended 4 rookies to 6 or more years? There is a short answer: never. We did this in the last 2 years- never close to this before. While the Jansen deal outprices the Chapman deal, we then extended Chapman to 2 years. After the Sale extension and Nate re-sign for 2019 and beyond, we signed no FA SP'ers to more than 2 years, unless you count the Paxton on the IL year one type deals until...you guessed it- 2024 and 2025 with Gio and then Sandoval on a Paxton type deal in 2025. Is this getting too complicated for you? You seriously think this all looks like 2019-2023?

When Sox have pitchers returning from TJS, many write them off at about an 80 to 100% loss. Why do Yankee pitchers not get the same treatment?

Did you know Rodon is expected to begin the season on the IL? If you double Cole's 2023 fWAR, it would be at 3.6. That's damn good, and it matches Sonny Gray's 2025 fWAR. Cole is projected at 1.9 or 2.0 for 2026. Gray is projected at 3.6 to 3.9.

I don't think the Sox go over $264. If they sign Bregman, they will give significant defferals and or make a trade (likely the $7.8M Duran maybe coupled with the $2.7 Crawford) for something that costs less enough to get us under $264. That being said, I don't know what JH will approve. Nobody does. That's been a pretty consistent opinion by me for many years. If he does allow Brez to go over, then my opinions will change accordingly. One big reason I was all over the Marte idea was his $15M AAV number. I wasn't thrilled about trading away top talent. Maybe I underestimated what it would take to get him. I'm open to the idea that I did that, certainly on some of my suggested offers, I did. I exploited the BTV values given to guys like Crawford and Casas. I do think a few of my offers were realistic and borderline overpays not worth it from the Sox side, and even then, maybe not enough for AZ to say yes. I'd rather have KMarte than Bregman. Not knowing what it would take is the wildcard. No to Anthony. yes to Mayer, but then we still need an infielder. I might give Tolle or Early, but that's a big ding on the comp with just signing Bregman to $30M AAV. Part of my like of KMarte is that I felt like adding what we can afford to sign with KMart over Bregman could change the comp. If we traded Duran and Crawford, we could add $10M to the $25M saved by trading Mayer, Witherspoon and Phillips for Marte, and then sign Suarez for that $25M. We'd also have a pitcher (Lodolo?) for Duran. So KMarte, Suarez & Lodolo. Yes, I'll take KMarte & Suarez with no Duran, Mayer, Crawford, Witherspoon and Phillips over signing Bregman and needing to trade Duran just to stay under $264. We pay Bregman $30M a year and maybe get it to $24M AAV, Trade Duran for Lodolo and save another $4M, okay, we're under $264M. We have Bregman and Lodolo with no Duran. We still have Mayer, Crawford and the rest of the AZ package I suggested or others. In that light, but it is jus speculation, yes, I'd choose KMarte and everything else over Bregman and all other stuff. Maybe I missed something. I just kinda hurriedly threw this together. I'm fine with signing Bregman and keeping the KMarte trade pieces in te system or use them for a SP2, too. In short, yes, it sounds like I'm all over the map, but this is not a simple Bregman v KMarte choice, to me.

Point to MVP. You got me. 🙃

So the idea is to leave gaping holes in case our 4th OF'er gets hurt? I'm not for trading any infielders, except DHam, unless we add two.

Has JH's actions changed since the Devers extension? Why not choose that year? It's in your mind- not mine. I'm not going to assume what Ole Red meant by "today." I'll leave that to him.

The Yanks just claimed Kaleb Ort. I rest my case.

Sox with Breggie and Yanks w/o Bellinger and no lower teams make big adds, my AL rankings go: 1. TOR 2. SEA 3T. NYY/BOS 5. HOU 6T. BAL/KCR

I think he has some kind of notification set-up for that. LOL

The offer was Mayer & Duran. Is Mayer a pitcher? Besides, I just said yikes about Ragans being injury prone. He might still be worth the risk, but the problem is we'd need 2 infielders after trading Mayer. Maybe sign Bregman, make that trade and cross your finger. Play Romy at 2B or give KC another crack at it.

Without knowing names, ir is my opinion, we can get a player (2B/3B/SP2-2) as good as Bregman for those two. It hurts losing those two, but my theory involves using the money saved to then sign Suarez or a SP, or maybe two nice RP'ers. Now, the balance looks plus. Of course, if that doesn't happen, then maybe I don't make the trade and we just sign Rengifo and trade a couple bums for a better bum. Yipee!

It means what it says. We haven't gone 5 years since Yoshida. We haven't gone 6 since Story. We haven't gone $170M since Price. We went 3 years on Bregman last winter with a generous optout clause. He's a year older, now. Why is my opinion so hard to understand? Maybe we go $170M/6. I won't be shocked, but I'm not expecting it. I do expect he gets close to that or more. Maybe I'm wrong on that, to. We all have varying opinions on this and other issues.

Mayer plays SS and Romy plays 2B. We also have Campbell and Yoshida who can play LF. I value a quality 3Bman over a 4th OF'er, especially when we have Campbell/Yoshida as our 5th OF'er.

The example that scares me is the last deadline. Apparently, Brez was "in on" many high quality players, and when they came off the board, nobody was left. That could happen, here. What if we end up with Luis Rengifo or Yoan Moncada? Are Kiner-Falefa or Willi Castro much better options? I can't see us losing out on Bregman and then offering more years and money for Bichette. I see Suarez as the only plan B not involving a trade. Now, we have 4 starting FT OF'ers and a DH that might hit .800 (Yoshida,) so maybe we trade for a 3Bman or 2Bman better than Willi Castro. I'm not confident we'd get someone who makes us a clearly better team than 2025, and that should be or should have been the goal and results from this offseason.

You pulled 2019 out of a hat. The point being argued was JH is not the same today as when he took over the team. If you think 2019 is today, that's in your mind, not mine. The Yanks won 5 more games than the Sox in 2025. fangraphs has them projected better by a 2.9 fWAR margin for 2026. A Bregman signing might even that up, but then again, a Bellinger signing would likely put them back up again. I like our team better than the Yanks team: 26 man roster, 40 man roster and farm. In terms of the whole system, it's clearly the Sox, to me. If it's about what owner spends more this year and next, NYY is the daddy, and the Sox are the ugly stepchild. I guess it comes down to what you are looking at. To me 2019 might as well be 2003..

I think Marte is a way better player than Bregman, especially on offense, which is our #1 need, right now, IMO. I'd rather have Marte, but having Bregman and the players needed to get Marte is probably the better idea. I don't think we'll pay Bregman more than other teams will offer, so that's why I think Marte was the better option. Now that he is apparently "off the market," it's Bregman or Suarez. (IMO, there is almost the same odds of us signing Bichette as Tucker or Framber- close to zero.)

I said 1% chance he gets that $32M. Maybe I went too low, but I'd say the odds are very low Skubal wins. I think he messed up his bargaining position by going absurdly high, and not because he's not worth $32M on the open market, but because that is just way too high for the arb model to accept.

I think Contreras has to be considered our FT 1Bman, barring injury. He may catch some, but unless Wong is not on the roster it wont be enough to say he's not our FT 1Bman. Duran will not play any "specific position" FT but may lead the team in PAs, unless Anthony leads off and stay healthy all year. I think we add an infielder (Bregman?) and Rafaela only starts in the infield if there is an injury or emergency situation. With the more-than-capable Romy on the bench, Rafaela stays in CF very close to FT. This might be how the PAs are spread out: 690 Duran (mostly at DH and LF with a little in CF) 650 Anthony (mostly in LF bus some RF) 600 Rafaela (almost all in CF) 600 Story (100% at SS) 600 Contreras (almost all at 1B) 600 ?? Bregman ?? (100% at 3B) 550-600 Abreu (100% in RF) 550 Mayer (mostly at 2B w some at 3B/SS) 450 Narvaez (100% at C) 350 Romy (2B/1B/DH and a little at 3B) 200 Wong (C) 100 DHam (2B) 100 Yoshida (DH/LF then traded or demoted)

Well, two in 2025. He battled injuries through the minors. He started in 2016, had two TJS, missed 2018, 2019 and 2020 fully, and then started 17 games in '21 before reaching the majors in 2022 after 60 GS in 6 minor league years. That's not enough?

Did I say that?