moonslav59

To me, Marte is a big plus over Bregman on offense. I'm not sure it's enough to make up for losing Devers and Bregman and then Duran, but it would be a big step, by itself. I'd hope we add Bregman or Alonso with KMarte, and I'd be thrilled. With those two, I'd be fine keeping Rafaela over Duran. Duran is slightly more expensive and may cost much more in '27 and '28, so trading him as part of the KMarte deal might e needed.

I'm not saying "Wake up!" because he slept through these two signings. I didn't want either. I wouldn't want Cease for a 3 year deal. I'm telling him he better wake up and not cut corners on spending. Even the second tax line should not be an issue, if we can't get what we need by staying under it. A trade of Duran and or Campbell for K Marte would not cost much, and would fill a great need. That should allow JH to spend on Alonso or Bregman, or at least Suarez or maybe M King or someone else. (I'm not high on Bichette.)

I'm just trying to be realistic. I'm not defending JH. I just said, "Wake up, JH!" about spending for this "open window." We should be able to add K Marte, Alonso and maybe a Merrill Kelly on a 1-2 year deal.

If he looks like he's progressing, there will be room on the 40 for him. It will only be an issue if he gets hurt or struggles most of the year.

It's just as early to say these guys should not be traded as it is to say they should be traded. It's literally the exact same time. Call it "early" or whatever you want.

When you fill a high need area via a trade, then you don't really care that much how the guy you gave up did. HanRam did great after the trade, but Beckett won us a ring, and Lowell shocked us a bit- in a good way. Hell, Anibal Sanchez turned out to be pretty good, too, but I could have cared less. You gotta give to get. I'm fine with giving, but the get has to be worth it. I'm fine with the Gray trade, as I think he's better than Crawford, Dobbins and Harrison. He might be better than all three combined, but I had hoped we got a co-ace or solid #2. I see his fWAR projects are as a #2, but I'm not so certain with a 36 year old showing decline over 2 years.

It's pretty sound thinking, IMO. I might add Perales to the list. The guy can pitch!

I think so, too. We probably get neither, which I'm okay with, if we get KMarte and maybe Suarez or Polanco or trade for Lodolo, Ryan or ___.

Agreed, and even if 2 of those 3 amount to squat, if one does great, it's probably worth not trading any of the 3.

Sounds like you are writing them off after just 35 IP.

It would be nice to get a SP'er better than Gray and Bello. Call him a #2, #1 or whatever. Just say, "He's better than Bello & Gray" is fine, too. I doubt we'll have the resources available to get a better pitcher and address our needs for improved offense, unless JH does the unexpected. To me, we have Crochet in his prime. We have many younger players approaching prime and not being paid a lot to deliver high value. There is a clear window open, right now. It should last at least 2-3 years more, if not 4-5, so if there ever was a time to sign a 4-6 year deal or two for top talent, it is this winter. I don't say this every year. We did spend a lot, last winter, but much was on one year deals, and the Gio deal ended. We also traded Devers, so there is more than enough reasons to spend bigly. Wake up, JH!

I don't like using the word "untouchable," as everyone should be traded for a better return. I do think holding onto Tolle and early is a high priority and should be. They don't seem like other highly ranked pitchers the Sox have had in the past who almost all fizzled out- at least for a decade or more. We started seeing some signs of life with Houck & Bello and to a lesser extent with Crawford & Dobbins, and it makes a lot of sense to hang onto these two kids. The way pitching costs have skyrocketed, the value of guys like Crawford, Harrison and Dobbins, when added to a package headlined by Duran or Campbell should be enough to get what we need.

I'm beginning to wonder if he's too expensive, too. I'm thinking the Mets might sign Bregman, and we get Alonso or Okamoto.

Okay. Some prefer using numbers to support their positions- some don't. Fine all around.

Steamer projects... 3.6 Yamamoto (Crochet 5.6) 3.5 Snell (Gray 3.9) 3.1 Glasnow (Bello 2.0) 2.8 Ohtani (Sandoval 1.7) 1.8 Sheehan (Crawford 1.1) 1.7 Sasaki (Early 1.1, Tolle 0.9, Harrison 0.6, Dobbins 0.2))

soxprospects.com projects this Greenville rotation: WOW! Valera, Fajardo, Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson, Aita POR: Rogers, Wehunt, Rivera, Holobetz, Paez, Dean (Meh) WOO: Tolle, Early, Dobbins, Uberstine, Perales, Drohan, Anderson (Nice) The Ridge Yaks: Travieso, J Bello, Finley, Patton, Brown, Morgan (interesting & promising)

It's a way of distinguishing how good your rotation is. You may think it's "overthinking," but others see it as simplifying how we compare one staff to another or one starter to another with just 5 simple numbers rather than a mix of several other numbers. The Sox might have one #1, two #3's, two #4's and four #5's. The Yanks might have one #1, three #3's and 3 number 5's. The Jays might have ... Nobody "has to assign a number," but people do it all the time, but by using EAR, fWAR, ERA-/ERA+ or other stats, metrics or combinations of things.

I've always felt it is a losing strategy to try and upgrade your 4 or 5 SP'er. It's not a bad idea to add starter depth, but the best plan is to upgrade at the 1 or 2 slot, maybe 3 slot, if that is the best you can do. That pushes your current 2 to the 3, the 3 to the 4 and the 5 to depth. In a sense, it upgrades 3-4 slots with one add. In reality, it's just one guy, and you have 5 starters who all start 31-33 games, if heathy and not demoted, so it is just 1, and your 1 starts as much as your 4. The #2 guy in the playoffs is a good way to look at it, but our #2 might be another team's #1 or #5, so in the context of the whole league, categorizing pitchers as 1,2,3,4,5 is always complex. As a general rule, I like to say the 30 best pitchers are #s, the next 30 are #2s and so on, but what stats to use and what time frame to use complicates that process, too. To me, we have this right now: 1. Crochet (top 5 of 30) 3. Gray (looks like a 2 in many areas) 3. Bello (looks like a 2 in some areas) 4. Sandoval (health concerns) 5. Crawford (health) Dobbins (inexperience) Harrison (inexperience) 7-8. Criswell Unknown: Tolle, Early, Perales AAAA depth: Uberstine & Drohan

I'm a big Rafaela fan, as you know, but if we add very little to the offense, I'm leaning towards your position. We could trade Rafaela (6.3 AAV) plus others for K Marte (19.5 AAV.) Maybe Campbell (7.5) plus Rafaela (6.3) which adds about $5M to the budget, fixes 2B and clears the OF logjam. (Garcia could be the 4th OF'er along with Masa as emergency depth- or bring back Ref for a year.) With nothing else, we'd have this... 1. L Anthony LF/CF 2. S K Marte 2B 3. R Duran CF/LF 4. L Abreu RF/ Refsnyder RF 5. L Masa DH/ Romy DH 6. R Story SS 7. L Casas 1B 8. L Mayer 3B/ Romy 3B 9. R Narvaez C 8.

There are still the conference championship games to go, but here is how it looks right now... Here are the latest CFP top 25 rankings. Ohio State: 12-0 Indiana: 12-0 Georgia: 11-1 Texas Tech: 11-1 Oregon: 11-1 Ole Miss: 11-1 Texas A&M: 11-1 Oklahoma: 10-2 Alabama: 10-2 Notre Dame: 10-2 BYU: 11-1 Miami (Fla.): 10-2 Texas: 9-3 Vanderbilt: 10-2 Utah: 10-2 USC: 9-3 Virginia: 10-2 (would be fourth highest-ranked conference champion) Arizona: 9-3 Michigan: 9-3 Tulane: 10-2 (would be fifth highest-ranked conference champion) Houston: 9-3 Georgia Tech: 9-3 Iowa: 8-4 North Texas: 11-1 James Madison: 11-1 No. 12 fifth-highest ranked conference champion at No. 5 Oregon Winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech in the quarterfinals No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma Winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State in the quarterfinals No. 11 fourth highest-ranked conference champion at No. 6 Ole Miss Winner vs. No. 3 Georgia in the quarterfinals No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Texas A&M Winner vs. No. 2 Indiana in the quarterfinals If Duke wins, they should not be in. If BYU wins, maybe ND or Ole Miss is booted out. Will ALA be bounced with a loss? No Texas Or James Madison?

Agreed, and it all comes down to greed.

Has Wacha's name been floated about?

The Jays are losing Bassitt, so I'm not sure their rotation will be as great as some think. Guasman will be 35. Berrios 32 in May and Lauer 31 in June. They still have some holes, as do all teams.

I doubt it, but they seem like they see the open window and are going for it. Bichette will want a long deal, so maybe they go shorter with a deal like Polanco or Suarez.

It's hard to know what AZ would demand, but you know they will want Tolle and or Early. I'd try to find a way to make the deal happen without one of them. If they want Duran or Campbell, I'd start there. I'd try to push Crawford, Dobbins, Perales or Harrison over Early/Tolle/Valera/Fajardo, but we might have to add a third piece to get them to agree: maybe Arias, Garcia, Phillips... (I doubt Sandlin, Romero or Mullins moves the needle enough.)