moonslav59

I have to think LF and DH are his best positions, at this point- all the more reason to trade LHB Duran. However, we are losing nearly 1200 PAs from Bregman, Devers, Refsnyder and Lowe. Duran was our best wire-to-wire offensive player in 2024 and 2025. Tough call for Brez. I don't trade Duran, unless we add 2 big bats- like KMarte & Alonso.

The season with the most IP was 2022: 9 GS and 22 RP games. No speculation there, either. It is speculating to say or imply the injuries were related to starting. They may have been, but nobody knows. Many of us wanted him to stay in the pen. He sure looked great as a SP'er starting the 2024 season, then KA-BOOM!

5770 innings at 2B 11 innings at 3B Hell, he's played more at SS (2280) and CF (1290) than 3B. He has gotten criticism for requested days off and staying in the DR longer than hoped for after his home was burglarized. KMarte and his agent deny the talk of him asking for days off.

Tucker did beat JD in fWAR 4.5 to 3.9, but your point is a good one. Tucker is better on D, but JD's baserunning adds a special dimension. I think the pre-injury Tucker is the eye opener: bWAR 5.3>5.5>5.5 (21-23) then 4.7 in just 78 games in '24 (179 OPS+!!!) He turns 29 in January. Hid fWAR was 4.9 each year from '21 to '23 then 4.2 in less than a half season in '24.

I'd trade Duran for KMarte, because we'd still have plus OF'ers with Campbell, Garcia and masa as OF depth. We have needed a 2Bman since 2017.

Knowing these guys, they'll go in between.

I think they'd much prefer Crawford, Harrison or Dobbins than Sandoval, but your point is well-taken. I agree that we can package to either way they are going. I have mentioned Rafaela several times in various offers, including for KMarte. He's more proven than Campbell, has many years of control and has proven he has a position mastered. (He could probably be a plus at 2B in les sthan a year of FT play, but why?) I'd give Rafaela and any two from the 3 pitchers I mentioned for a "win soon" package to AZ. Keeping Duran over Rafaela should help the offense, but who knows in 1-2 years where Duran and CR will be on offense. Both Duran (7.7 + 2 arbs) and Rafaela (6.3 x 6 years) would both help offset some of the $19.5M AAV KMarte would bring to the budget. That might help leave just enough budget space for one big bat signing. I certainly think they could afford Suarez on a 2 x $20M or 3 X $17M deal. Maybe Marte & Suarez could be enough. 1. L Anthony CF/RF 2. S Marte 2B 3. L Duran LF/CF/DH 4. R Suarez 3B/1B 5. L Abreu RF- R Refsnyder LF/DH 6. R Story SS 7. L Casas 1B/DH-R Romy 1B/3B/DH- L Masa DH 8. R Narvaez C 9. L Mayer 3B/R Romy 3B/DH

He could decline by 5% every year and he'd go from 4.5 fWAR in '25 to... 4.2 in '26 4.0 in '27 3.8 in '28 3.6 in '29 As a reference last 3 year numbers: Duran has given us 2.5>6.8>2.7 Bichette: 3.9>0.3>3.8 Bregman: 4.2>3.5>4.0 Alonso: 2.8>2.1>3.6 Schwarber 0.9>3.3>4.9 Suarez: 3.5>3.8>3.8

I doubt they'd want 1 year Sandoval, and it's hard to know who they like. They might like Crawford more than Harrison + Dobbins. They might really like Perales. I think they have good reason to insist on Tolle or Early, and I doubt even Arias could be subbed in. The name I keep coming back to is Campbell, and I'm not a firm believer in the idea that is stock dropped a ton from March's high point. Again, maybe AZ does not value him highly enough. His lack of a position is worrisome. Would Campbell, Crawford and Perales get it done?

True... Donovan is .634 vs LHPs since 2023 (.824 v R) Romy is .651 v R (.931 v L) The problem is RHPs are about 70% of the league. Donovan's real comp is LHB DHam at .490 v L and .667 v R, so he'd be a big upgrade there, but we need RH'd power bats and not a better DHam.

How about... Duran to NYM Vientos, Wong, Tong & Harrison to MIN Ryan & Jeffers to BOS

Agreed, and maybe getting a third team involved, we can get Ryan for Duran + Harrison.

Agreed, and that's how I see the Sox bringing back Bregman. I ask, okay, so then what next?

I'd love another Tolle, but we are not in rebuild mode, now, and we have two Tolle's already (Tolle and Early) plus some up and coming pitchers who might make great strides in 2026, like Perales, Witherspoon, Valera, Fajardo, Phillips, Holobetz and maybe a couple more. Now, if we end up trading Tolle and others for Ryan or KMarte and have Tong in his role, then maybe...

To me, signing Bregman or Bichette and no other big offense adds, we could easily be worse on O than in 2025. They just replace the 2025 Bregman and hopefully don't miss the time he missed. The idea that 330 more PAs from Anthony can replace the 330 PAs lost from Devers has some merit, but I see Anthony as the wild card that might put us over the top. We still need to make up for the Devers loss. We did better, last year, but we need to build upon that and not seek a status quo philosophy based on the hope that our younger players will naturally all progress by enough to make up for not only the loss of many key players but to improve on the 2025 baseline skill level. Sure, we lost some players we can view as "addition by subtraction," and every year I make that point, but we always find ways to replace those names with others who do about the same- and so on... In theory, we have to not only replace these guys and their value but add to them: PAs 495 Bregman .821 334 Devers .905 209 Refsnyder .838 119 N Lowe .790 That's about enough PAs for two full timers. Replace them in kind and then plan of the kids' improvement to bring us the plus we need may not be enough, but not replacing these nearly 1200 PAs with high quality players- two of them- is a losing plan. Okay: add Bregman or Bichette and that replaces the 2025 Bregman and Lowe. Now, we need KMarte, Alonso or Schwarber to replace 550 PAs from Devers and Ref. We have to expect some injuries and "off seasons, " too.

That's how I see it.

Casas has nice splits. I agree. I was thinking maybe Vientos at 3B with maybe Mayer playing some 3B vs some RHPs. Again, I do not see Vientos as a solution to our needs on offense, except he has some power. I'm not for this trade. I admit, I don't know much about Tong.

I would include Witherspoon and or Phillips, instead of Harrison or Perales, in MN insisted. I might even give them Valera or Fajardo, and I am super high on both. This window is worth some sacrifices. Without JH spending big money, I might not see a trade like this as being worth it, though. We'll be worse in 2026 with just Gray and Ryan and no help for the offense.

Certainly age decline is real and prevalent. It is not, however, undefeated, as some players do better after age 32. Eventually, age sinks us all. Dwight Evans: 122 OPS+ up to age 31. 139 OPS+ ages 32-37 (It was 143 from ages 35-37!) 131 from age 33 to the end of his career at age 39. It's rare: I get that.

...and not the headliners in the trade. That would be Campbell or Duran.

Agreed. Vientos might not even beat out Casas for the 1B job, nor Mayer for 3B, but we could play Mayer at 2B.

Nope.

I would not give Early or Tolle for those two. Contreras is expensive, but his contract is not really underwater. He turns 33, in a few months. His OPS+ has been 123>138>123. He's a RHB who has averaged 26 HRs per 162 in the last 3 years. He has decent splits. Would STL take Harrison, Perales, DHam/Romero and Sandlin/Mullins? Maybe they'd want Casas.

I'd rather JH just pay to sign a couple bats, but I'm extremely doubtful he even allows one large and long deal, this winter, despite getting out from Devers' 8 years remaining. KMarte makes sense, moneywise, positionally, as a power solution and being a switch hitter. He checks too many boxes to let his age be the reason to say no. I do worry about age-related decline, but that's true for Alonso, Schwarber, Bregman and others, too. Ideally, we sign Alosno & Bregman and trade Campbell, Harrison & Perales for Ryan.

All? Not all by age 35 or 36, but yes most do. fangraphs has this for 33+ year olds. All ages ranking (277 players 300+ PAs) 1. 1.144 Judge 4. .959 Springer (Schwarber is 7th and K Marte 11th)) 16. .869 Freeman 27th .848 Y Diaz 30th .846 Muncy 42nd .824 E Suarez 6 from .755 to .800 (61st to 107th) Better than the mean 10 from .700 to .750 (108th to 181st (about the average) 5 from .680-.700 (182-207th is the top of the bottom 3rd in MLB) 5 below .670 (5 of the worst 54 players in MLB)