moonslav59

Maybe some ALC or ALW team should make an offer: 0.41 v OAK (3 GS) 1.84 v TEX (3) 3.00 v SEA (1) 3.43 v HOU (3) 4.91 v LAA (2) 2.13 v CLE (2) 2.25 v CHW (4) 3.12 v DET (1) 6.98 v KCR (4) 9.00 v MN (3) The Angels, Twins or Royals to maximize the effect.

Most notably, a Marlin starter.

Has he looked questionable over his last 15 starts, or not? yes, he's looked questionable a few other times since joining the Sox and always bounced back. I'm not saying he won't again, in fact, I expect him to bounce back. All I'm saying is he has "slipped back to looking questionable," as most 5ht starters do from time to time.

The winter is long enough to debate both 2022 and 2023, IMO. Of course, talking about 2023 will be more interesting and less of a bummer, I hope. On 2022, yes all teams have injuries, but ours seemed to all happen at the same time, and it's hard for any GM to have 4 capable back-up SP'ers on the 40. That's what we needed for a stretch, while needed 2-3 for much of the remainder of the season. The loss of our RH'd hitting and defensive whiz of a CF'er hurt, too. Injuries are certainly not the whole story. Many of our returning vets declined or greatly declined. As for 2023, we need to improve or upgrade at so many positions, it's hard to keep one's head from spinning. It's likely we will have to settle on slight improvements at some positions while trying to greatly upgrade others. I doubt the budget will be big enough to upgrade 7+ positions by adding players. I doubt the plan is to trade several prospects, like we did from 2016-2018. either, so with a limited budget and a long term priority being firmly in place, it won't be easy to get to a highly competitive spot in 2023. Not impossible- but very difficult. Here is one reason I am optimistic, today, anyway: I do think we have slightly improved our outlook at several positions, already. Maybe not bu enough to say, "WOW!" but a good chance to see improvement over 2022. Catcher: I like McGuire/Wong better than Vaz/Plawecki. I know many disagree, and that is fine, but we are also cutting salary here by over $5M. (That can be used elsewhere.) 1B: I like Casas/Hosmer/Dalbec better than Dalbec/Cordero. This is not close. This is also a min salary position, when other teams spend $20+M at 1B. (More $ for elsewhere- see a theme here?) 2B: I expect Story to play more and hit better. I don't think that is unreasonable. (This is a costly position that we are b asically locked into.) 3B: I expect Devers to do better in 2023 and continue his improved defense. LF: If we bring Pham back, I like Dugo/Pham better than Dugo/Duran. Even with no Pham we could be better by just seeing less of Duran. CF: I see a major improvement here, if Kike can stay healthy. RF: We can't get much worse. If we keep Pham, it allows us to use Dugo in RF when refsnyder does not play. I know many doubt Refsnyder's skills, but Dugo/Ref> JBJ. The two positions in serious doubt- are SS and DH, but as I mentioned, we are not spending big anywhere else, except 2B. Our DH OPs is about .750, this year, and even if we spend nothing on DH, we may be able to cobble together a .750+ OPS by rotating and platooning Hosmer, Pham, Dalbec, Ref, Cordero or even E Valdez at DH. Not all can be on the 26, b ut between all of them, I don 't think .750 is all that bad. If we bring Bogey back or replace him without losing too much ground and add a RF'er or RF/DH type, we should be able to gain enough at RF/DH to compensate for a minor loss (hopefully just minor at worst) at SS. So, hopefully a gain on offense and defense. The pitching is the area that is so in doubt, I have to think we need major upgrades here, and other than SS and RF, all or our remaining resources need to be focused here. I think we need an ace, a closer and a solid SP/RP (depending on where Houck and Whit are slotted) or two solid SPers and 2 solid RP'ers- MINIMUM. It will likely take one significant trade, that I'm not sure we do plus major spending on the staff. I like Bello and Pivetta. I like Whitlock, Houck, Schreiber and even Barnes, but that is just 5 arms. Adding just 4-5 solid arms may still not be enough, but with my expected budget and belief that we might not want to trade top prospects, I'm not sure it's doable. (There goes my optimism!)

He's actually looked like a #2 (#1 on some teams) for pretty long stretches, a #3-4 for even longer stretches, but a questionable #5 for others, like lately. 5.67 in his last 7 starts looks "questionable," but I'm not calling him a questionable 5th starter for 2023. He just looks like one, now. His ups and downs, since joining the Sox make me believe we will see enough ups to keep him looking like a solid #5, a decnet #4 and possibly a decent #3, but hopefully we'll have 3 better than him in 2023. Here is a breakdown of his ups and downs with the Sox: GS ERA FIP 2 1.80 3.39 (2020) 11 3.77 3.27 (start or 2021) 10 5.47 5.49 (middle 2021) 10 4.43 4.20 (end of 2021) 5 7.84 5.48 (start to 2022) 12 2.60 3.18 (middle of 2022) 15 5.62 5.36 (last 15 starts) and 5.67/6.08 last 7 GS Overall, he has been an excellent 5th starter, often needed as our 2/3. He's done fine as a 2-4 for much of his time, here. I'm glad to have him back as our 4/5, next season, but right now, he is not pitching very well, and a 15 game sample size is not tiny. One knowledgeable baseball fan I know, often says, and there is a grain of truth to this, "A starter is only as good as his last start." While I don't think this is true, it often feels like it is.

There is still a few games left to move the needle on some of these numbers, but here is a look at our current OPS Against and OPS numbers: OPS Against (200+ PAs Against) Only players still on the team are listed, here: .570 Schreiber (more PAs Against than Houck) .608 Houck .639 Whitlock .670 Wacha .750 Pivetta .753 Hill .768 Nate .776 Bello .793 Brasier .794 Crawford .844 Winckowski 100-199 PAs Against .668 Strahm .680 Barnes .763 Danish .855 Ort Under 100 .494 Kelly .589 PValdez .719 Bazardo 1.194 Seabold 1.367 German 1.376 DHern OPS (100+ PAs) PAs listed, if 100- 200 .894 Refsnyder (173) .889 McGuire (101 w Sox only) .874 Devers .832 Bogey .778 JD .742 Dugo .737 Story .727 Arroyo .714 Pham (Sox only) .697 Cordero .645 Duran .635 Dalbec .634 Kike Under 100 PAs .860 Almonte (25) .843 Casas (81) .782 Ja Davis (12) .645 Chang (21) Sox only .611 Hosmer (45) Sox only .608 Wong (47) .427 Downs (41) .322 Sanchez (44)

Of course, I disagree with the last sentence, but the rest was a fine summary of where we are at. I think it is hard to know how well or poorly Bloom will do this winter, especially if upper management changes the priorities to some extent. Bloom's first year was a massive budget-cutting winter. That will not happen, this coming winter. Bloom's second winter saw an uptick in spending, but with 15-20+ slots on the 40 needing serious upgrading and a spending budget of about $40M, Bloom missed on a few of his few key signings. Richards: miss M Perez: miss (but the guy is now showing he can pitch) Kike: was well worth the $7M x 2 Marwin and other $2-4M paid players were mostly busts, except for Renfroe. The Beni & Ottavino trades were made for the future with hopes for some present help. This past winter looked like a repeat of the 2021 winter, until suddenly we signed Story in late March. However, the major additions made, this year, with the exception of JBJ & Paxton did better than those of 2021, although the W-L record did not reflect this. Wacha and Hill did way better than Richards and Perez and cost less. Paxton was more about the future, but he gave us nothing, this year, and now the option looks in doubt. The big splash Story signing was marred by injury and left the grade incomplete. Some minor additions have turned out to be the big success stories for 2022: Schreiber & Refsnyder, although the latter's sample size is rather small. Strahm, Diekman and Robles, combined, did not help the pen-which turned out to be one of our major weak areas. In season moves have been Bloom's best area, IMO. The minor sell-off in 2020 brought us Pivetta and some prospects with decent or dimming outlooks. The 2021 moves brought us Schwarber, Robles, Davis, Iggy and Shaw, who helped get us over the hump and into the playoffs. While this year's moves were widely criticized as not going far enough for the here and now, or not dumping enough to get under the tax line, the moves not only improved the 2022 team that was going nowhere, quickly, they helped our future even more. Not many GM can pull that off. McGuire for Diekman & his remaining $4M for 2023 was a great move. We will actually be paid to improve our catching position in 2023 and beyond. Pham and Hosmer were very low cost additions for Groome & Northcut. (We also added 2 prospects: Max Ferguson who is top 10 in BBs and SBs & Cory Rosier) Both slightly improve our depth in 2 key areas. I might be wearing rose-colored glasses, but it's hard not to be impressed with the minor league numbers of Enmanuel Valdez and Wilyer Abreu, the two prospects received for Vazquez. Valdez (500 PAs) .296 28 107 with 65 XBHs and a .918 OPS (54 Hrs in last 865 PAs) Abreu (457 PAs) .247 19 73 but led the minors in BBs with 114 (.399 OBP) plus 31 SBs with just 3 CS (.834 OPS) Of course, all the prospects Bloom had hoarded will not produce at the ML level, but he has greatly improved our chances at some meaningful farm help in the near and extended future. That was one area he was told to improve, and he has at least made a valiant effort. It looks like some positive farm infusions are beginning, most notably with Bello & Casas, but I do think some that stumbled out of the gate, will improve, next year (Wong, Crawford, German.) Guys like Duran, Winckowski, Seabold and Downs look highly doubtful, but maybe one turns it around in the minors and repositions himself as a hopeful. Post prospects like Whitlock, Houck, Dalbec and others offer a mixed bag of hopefuls had hopes dashed or nearly dashed. Lets see what Bloom can do, this winter. When I look at the totality of his moves, I'm not sure why so many are so pessimistic, but certainly I may be too optimistic, as well. His smaller moves, like Arroyo, Pivetta, Whitlock, Schreiber, McGuire and Refsnyder seem to his strong area, but with recent signings like Wacha, Hill and Story looking better than those in 2021, I'm hopeful he will connect, this winter. He needs to hit on 75% or more of his significant additions and cannot repeat a trade like JBJ. Will he trade some prospects? Will he be forced to reset the tax? Will he spend the $60+M on 3-4 players or dilute the money over 5-7 players. (I'm not sure the roster crunch will allow 7 without a 3 for 1 type trade being involved.) It's the "flashpoint winter" for Bloom.

Nick has slipped back to looking like a questionable 5th starter after flirting with 3/4 status more often than not, since joining the Sox. ERAs by our starters (some inning in relief for some pitchers) 3.06 Wacha (22 GS) 3.18 Sale (2 GS) 4.05 Nate (19) 4.41 Hill (25) 4.48 Nick (31) 3.15 Houck (4) 3.45 Whitlock (9) 4.39 Bello (9) 5.47 Crawford (12) 5.75 Winckowski (14) 11.29 Seabold (5) .

Nimmo wont go one. Yes, please no Gallo!

We may even sign a RF'er for 1 year.

If Google is an inside connection, then maybe. They have mentioned resetting and also words that clearly mean it is a priority, at times. They have not said "cliff," but I did not Google that. They have said things like the team needs to focus on rebuilding the farm, which we can all interpret differently, but I'm not sure they said that, too often, between 2016 and 2018. Sometimes, what is not said, can be telling, but of course that's just speculation.

I never said you said that. I just added more details to my opinion on the matter.

“…this focus on CBT resides with the media far more than it does within the Sox. I think every team probably wants to reset at least once every three years — that’s sort of been the history — but just this week . . . I reminded baseball ops that we are focused on competitiveness over the next 5 years over and above resetting to which they said, ‘That’s exactly how we’ve been approaching it.’ – John Henry

Well, JH said it and talking about "the CBT limit" is about resetting. Of course, they never say "cliff," and they often mask the word "rebuild" with more fan-friendly language, or they just avoid saying anything like it. I guess you might feel like 2020 was not a rebuild year, because nobody said it. Bloom went ont osay... “We have a lot of decisions ahead of us and a lot of time ahead of us to see how we might best use our resources in the future,” Bloom said. “But we know there is a cost to being over that line. It is something you factor in. It’s something that does impact the organization. So maintaining flexibility allows you to be more opportunistic. And we want to be able to take advantage of opportunities.” Sounds like re-setting is something they think and plan for.

I agree that most people's eye tests match the data and facts. When people start saying things like So-and-so is an above average defender, I wonder how an eye test, alone, can lead anyone to a solid opinion- one where they feel very confident they are right. Without watching other players almost every game, how can anyone ever know, without using some sort of data? Maybe some watch a 5 games a day, but I don't know anyone who does, and that might only be 1/3 of that day's games. There are certain opinions that can be fact-checked, pretty easily, but sometimes, there can be different data used, or different sample sizes used, and that opens the door to legitimate differing opinions. Some statements like JD hits in more Dps than anyone else on the Sox can be proven or disproven by facts. Statements like Bogey is an above average fielder is open to debate and differing data.

I think his defense is already ML ready, at more than one position. His offense took a big step forward, but my guess is he'll be up in 2024.

“Going back to February, I think I said then and would say now that the luxury tax, the CBT limit is a factor, but I think the importance of that has been kind of overplayed in the storyline that has surrounded us this year,” chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said Monday. “It’s obviously something we monitor. As I said in February, I always felt the depth and the sustainability of the talent-base was a much bigger priority than that. Obviously we have to factor in everything. We have to monitor everything. We just want to make sure we’re using our resources wisely and doing that over a period of time. So it’s certainly something to consider. But I think the growth of the talent base that we can look out for many years and see that we have a chance to have in place is a much bigger factor.” -Chaim Bloom

Sept. 27, 2019, when Red Sox principal owner John Henry said, “This year (2020) we need to be under the CBT. That was something we’ve known for more than a year now.”

So?

That's not "why" they went over in 2022. There is an obvious reason not to go over a second year in a row, and an even bigger one for the 3rd year. You know this.

There is no "interpretation" on swinging for the first pitch or not. There are no alternative facts. We've all been wrong in some of our "eye test" interpretations- some more than others. Some "eye test" interpretations may have valid differences of opinion or facts that seem to back opposing positions. This one was not one of those.

Not reduce- spend more than originally planned. I'm thinking the plan might have been to reset in 2023, but after such a crappy season, and fans being uneasy, he might spend more and reset in 2024, instead.

What I wonder more about is whether 2022 will affect his spending plans for 2023.

Good points. I do think driving fans away will ultimately hurt the bottom line, and JH knows this. Otherwise, he wouldn't be spending so much, unless winning is also a business priority despite any costs added outweighing revenue added.

Even with superior positioning, he still made less plays than most SSs due to his horrific range. I'm not sure, if he got more favorable calls on hits v error rulings due to his rep, but that is an astounding mark of just 3 errors!