moonslav59

How do you get equal value when you trade one year of team control? The only way that happens is if it is a trade for another player with 1 year of control. Then, you'd expect equal value, unless one player is a malcontent demanding a trade, or something. When we traded Betts, we got 5 years of Dugo and maybe 6 years of Wong and Downs. How do you weight the value of a trade like that? Total WAR of the 3 players over maybe 17 years combined vs 1 year of Betts? That doesn't seem right, but maybe it is. Nobody would thin trading 1 year of a 9 WAR guy for 9 one WAR guys would be a good idea, but it's hard to say what "getting value" means, anymore. It seems like teams aren't giving up several top prospects for rentals or 1 year players, like they used to do. GMs have to settle for the best offer, if they are backed into a corner and forced to deal a stud near the end of team control. Now, a fair question might be, why wait until it's desperation time to make a deal? A floow-up question might be, "How would Sox Nation have reacted to us trading Bogey or Devers 2-3 years ago, for a better return than we'll get for Devers, now?"

...and DD, Ben or Theo would?

Nobody denies clutch examples exists. Some deny it is a skill set or repeatable skill.

Devers was called up in July of 2017. He was one of the few Sox prospects to be "fast-tracked," since he debuted as a 20 year old. However, he was signed as an IFA in July of 2013 and began in the rookie league in July 2014, as a 17 year old. So, it still took him 4 years from signing to the bigs and 3 years from Rookie Leagues to MLB. Bloom has been the GM for 3 years, and has been criticized for not having any prospects called up, yet, and us "not seeing the results," more quickly. On top of this, all farm systems shut down in his first year as GM. When you factor is the 2-4 years it takes to build up a farm and the 3-6 years it takes to develop promising new farm additions, the lag time is often 5-8 years before solid and continuous results can be expected, and this usually occurs only when a constant vigilance has been directed towards building up and maintaining a strong farm system from top to bottom, with very few major prospects trades, along the way. The farm infusions we have seen since Devers have been pretty few and far between, and if you go back 5-8 years and add all the prospect trades made 5-6 years ago, one can better understand why the pipeline has been sputtering since Devers. Soxprospects.com lists these graduated prospects since Devers: 8/18 Brasier 8/19 Taylor 9/19 DHern 5/21 Dalbec 6/21 Whitlock (a Bloom Rule 5 addition) 9/21 Houck 7/22 Duran 8/22 Crawford 9/22 Winckowski 10/22 Bello The following prospects may graduate in 2023: 2. Casas 4. Rafaela (late '23) 6. Mata (late '23) 8. Walter (late '23) 11. Wong 12. Murphy (late '23) 14. EValdez (late '23) 23. Seabold 24. Downs 27. German 29. Kelly As you can see, we should start seeing more prospects called up, next year. The quality is still speculative, but the higher numbers are real and encouraging. Bloom added some prospects via trades and Rule 5 that may jump the timeline ahead, a bit, as they were drafted several years ago and some are or were near MLB ready when acquired. Not many of those are/were our top prospects, but it should help having so many in hopes that a few contribute. So far, Whitlock has been nice, but Wink, Cordero, Seabold, Kelly, German, Downs and Wong have had mixed or poor results, so far. Look at the list of graduating prospects from 2018-2022 (5 years!) and think about how hard it is for a GM to rebuild a team with such little farm help.

Is a late inning, game-winning HR in late September for a team in a close race for a playoff spot, more or less clutch than a 3rd inning playoff HR with a team ahead 13-2 in the game and 3-0 in the series?

I'm just saying, if you fed the numbers of every player into a computer, and it randomly spit out results, you'd fine better hitters do better in the clutch and a few would over-perform while a few would underperform- more and more as the sample sizes get smaller. The final spread sheet would mirror reality. Whether that is proof that clutch is not a repeatable skillset is up for debate, but it sure as hell does not go against the anti- clutch is skill crowd.

Could be Nate's final Sox swang song.

Me, too, but as the guy on my avatar once wrote... “A joke is an epigram on the death of a feeling.”

Comparing "in the clutch" to their not "in the clutch" numbers might be more revealing and helps factor out the "good hitter hit better" aspect. When you compare reggie Jackson and Papi's clutch numbers vs non clutch, the differential is not so great. That being said, Papi and Reggie certainly had more than their "fair share" of huge moments, as one would also expect from a few players with randomly produced numbers.

Yes, I know. He had many heroic efforts with the Dodger, too. He also hit and fielded very well down the stretch of 2021, when others were struggling. In 2021, he went 20-49 with 5 HRs and 10 XBHs. (9 runs & 9 RBI in 11 gms) He even had a BB, HBP and SF. He had an .874 OPS after June 19th, and if you add the post season numbers, he'd be over .900 for a 90+ game sample size.

Turns out, his lying about his age was about him being younger than he said, initially.

I'm guessing they would start him off in a lower leverage role, but a lot depends on who we add, and where Whit & Houck are slotted.

Barnes is making a case for a significant role in '23.

Even if he ends up getting DFA'd, we dumped Diekman's contract.

Platoon- not FT. v RHP .754 2021 .974 2020 .781 2019 .829 2018 .939 2017 .783 from 2018-2022. .760 from 2020-2022 I'm not all gah gah over a .750 DH slot, but that's what we had this year. I'm not excited over a .750 1B, but it's better than .690- like we had this year. Until we add someone better v RHPs, I'm keeping the min wage player on the 26. BTW, our DH and 1B positions are both under .750, this year.

I disagree. Except for reverse splits, this year, he has done very well vs RHPs, and I doubt we spend big on a DH. We have other LH'de bats that can platoon at DH with him, already in the system. I won't be surprised, if he's traded, but I don't think he will be DFA'd. We may trade Dalbec, and that would eliminate the RH'd competition for platoon DH and back-up 1Bman. We'd get more for Dalbec and Hosmer is as cheap as can be.

Good comps. I'm confident that if Kike stays healthy, we'll be happy with him at $10M, whether he plays CF, 2B, SS or RF. I'm not a believer in clutch as a repeatable skillset, but he came through when it counted for the Sox in 2021.

I only provide the current combo players we have at high need areas to help determine which areas are our highest needs and which might be determined as either "being good enough" or "we don't have enough budget space to fix, right now, and you look better than what we have over there."

Hamilton started hitting much better, late in the year and had 70 SBs T3rd in minors. He may be a sleeper. ALL Minor League SB Leaders (Note the CS totals) 85-14 Ruiz 71-15 L Valdez 70-8 Hamilton 70-15 Nunez 70-16 de los Santos Other notables: 61-5 Ferguson 31-3 W Abreu 28-7 Rafaela 28-6 Bonaci 27-5 Paulino 25-0 Meredith 22-3 Chacon 22-2 Miller 21-2 A Lugo 21-5 McDonough 20-1 Sikes 20-7 M Lugo 20-8 de Leon 20-9 Jimenez 17-0 M Mayer

At min wage and a LH'd bat, I think he makes the opening day roster as a back-up 1Bman and platoon DH. It's certainly not ideal, but we will likely have to go cheap, maybe here is that place.

Would adding Nimmo for 2023 plus Story returning at 2B even out or exceed Renfroe in RF and Marwin & Co at 2B from 2021?

Stuck in a time warp.

I'm fine with this priority order.

I'm co-piloting the Nimmowagon.

Is Kike's arm good enough fro RF?