moonslav59

Stop. I said some could have called it a fluke.

Betts jumped. JD had a contract and will not return. Bogey is about to jump. Devers may soon.

I have admitted many times I was wrong about the cliff being this short. I'm not sure what more I have to say. I don't hear any cliff deniers admitting anything. Why not say something to them? Why not say something to those who swore the farm could be rebuilt to prominence in 1-2 years? I brought up the "fluke" nature of 2021 within the context of what happened in 2022. I like our chances of making the playoffs, this year, too, but as it turned out, maybe the cliff of 2020 is carrying over- not as a cliff by name, but not really being at "cliff level." IMO, we are still feeling the effects of what happened during and after 2019.

I don't see it that way. I admitted I was wrong about the length of the cliff, but I knew we were not going to see the farm rebuilt overnight. We won in 2021 due to amazingly good health, outlier years by Bobby Dee and others, and some decent moves by Bloom. It was unexpected- much like the drop in 2019 was, and many argue we cannot view that as part of the cliff, because expectations were high before '19. Why do the poor expectations prior to 2021 not count for anything?

How many times do I need to say we were wrong about the length? I did bring up that 2022 could be called part of the cliff, if you can view 2021 as a fluke- like many viewed 2013, but I never said that is fact.

Again, I did not. I said it "COULD" be called... It's funny how some bring up our feelings before 2019 as evidence 2019 was not the start of the cliff, but how we felt before 2021 matters little.

It doesn't. I said it could be viewed as such, especially after we saw what happened in 2022. To few injuries in '21 or too many in '22- maybe it was not fluke. Maybe the cliff was just 1 year, and we were wrong about the length of the cliff. One thing is for certain, if the cliff was just one year long, it wasn't because we rebuilt the farm overnight like many cliff deniers claimed we could do.

No. I'm saying many of us knew the roster was in trouble and there would be budget cuts that would force us to lose some of the few good players left over. Bloom, or whoever, chose to dump 2 players not 3-4, so yes, the pending budget cuts played into the belief that a cliff was coming- not just declining talent and a near barren farm.

Certainly, most posters who predicted a cliff expected more than 1 year, but just because there was only one year that could be called a fluke occurred in between 2 bad years, doesn't mean the whole idea was entirely wrong. Some of us predicted tough times ahead- other denied it.

I couldn't tell if the kids even had their eyes open. If you think Kimbrel deserved the save more than Beni, it's your right.

What's your point? Did some fans think he was under team control for 4 more years and would keep pitching well for us and help prevent the cliff?

2020 was Wile E. Coyote.

It was predictable we'd suck badly in 2020, no matter how many games were played. Sure, we'd have done better with Sale and ERod, but the rest of the team was relatively healthy. A serious down point was predicted and occurred. No amount of revisionist history will change that fact. To your other point, no I did not think 2019 would be the start of the cliff, but it turned out to be a strong sign it was about to hit the fan. It wasn't just the fact that all we got from our farm after Devers in 2017 was Houck, Dalbec and Duran. It was also about the severe budget crunch we knew would happen, due to so many star players nearing free agency and a lot of big contracts already on the books- such as Sale, Bogey, JD and Nate after 2019. To me, it was obvious. To others, apparently not. I will say, I thought the down part would be longer than 1 year, but I guess one could call 2021 a fluke and say it has been 3 years long, already (2020-2022.) To those who denied the cliff by saying all we need to do is rebuild the farm, they were right, but they were wrong about the time it takes to do so, plus the delay time before seeing actual big results. If it wasn't for Bloom's acquisition of Whitlock, we'd be looking at newcomers Bello and Casas as the only young, homegrown impact players on the team, except for maybe Houck. How could there not be a cliff (or serious downturn, if you dislike that term) with that farm impact and a tightening budget?

And, we saw the budget crunch coming as part of why there would be a cliff. Remember, Price was also dumped, and he was a big part of 2018.

Nope & Nope. He doesn't even get to #1. #2 was grandma worthy.

Trade for a SP'er and sign FA RP'ers is the best plan.

Who is? All I'm saying was that it was predictable. I'm so sure those others were, but call them "valleys," too, if you wish.

Part of the whole idea of an impending cliff was over the budget situation, and dumping Betts and Price was part of the situation at hand after 2019. We cut about $60M from 2019. If that is not a re-write of the team, what is?

Yes on 1- No on 2.

It may hav4e been shorter than many of us imagines it would be, and maybe that is one reason we have been more supportive of Bloom's work rebuilding the team from that horrific 2020 trench, cliff, valley or whatever you want to call it. It was real. It happened.

Nope.

They also greatly improved their pen from 2-6 years ago, but yes, they have very tough starters and are 6-7 deep.

Kinda the same thing we did in 2018- using starters in key relief appearances.

Of course my reasoning behind my seeing an approaching cliff had something to do with my thinking upper management had low expectations for a ring competitive team by 2021. The time frame iks close enough to be linked together. I did not expect the downfall to begin in 2019. I actually said maybe we could extend the window to 2020, if we played our cards right and decided to spend. The 2020 team did not resemble the 2018 team, and that was clearly a "cliff season." Whether we consider the cliff to be more than 1 year in length can be debated, but to me, the rebuild was obvious in 2020, and the 2021 was a continuation of the rebuild, although with hopes we could maybe squeak into the playoffs and give fans some excitement and hope. The sheer amount of one year deals supports the idea that 2021 was not part of some idea that a 3-4 year window was about to begin. It looked like a punt season with hopes of semi-competitiveness, in my opinion. I'm not sure the success of 2021 changed the longer term plans all that much. The 2022 roster construction continued to fill many slots with short term additions, until the Story signing. IMO, the 2023 season was always viewed as the season where major changes and additions would take place, with more on longer term deals, as farm infusions started becoming more meaningful and plentiful. I'm not sure they ever felt that even 2023 would be a top competitive team, since we are relying on several young prospects or recent grads to fill some very key roles to get to win a ring. I realize my position is just speculation, but I think I have some supporting evidence, such as all the one year deals and only the Story signing and Whitlock extension as any meaningful long term decision made. No major prospects have been traded. Betts was traded. Bogey may be gone, soon. Devers is on the clock. So far, this does not look like a management team in win-now mode.

Agreed. I think other teams likely have better talent to select than the ones we know more about- our own.