moonslav59

100% serious. In recent years, the Sox shattered the highest contract ever given to a player, David Price, by extending Devers to nearly 50% more total money. (Yes, they traded him shortly after the contract kicked in, but still...) They then signed a player to the highest AAV ever given out, Bregman, this time by nearly 33% more than ever given before. The Suarez signing was that largest FA signing since Story, but at a higher AAV. The $26M AAV is the 2nd largest AAV ever given to a Sox player for more than 3 years, and it was a 5 year deal. This is not a defense of JH and their budget-related decisions. I'm as pissed as anyone for allowing their "top targets" to continually sign elsewhere. The Bregman signing barely counts for anything, as he bolted after one year and was clearly our top target last winter. The Devers deal was not a FA signing but it did represent a major shift in decision making involving keeping our own stars- then they undid it. Suarez was a major signing, but he was not their first choice. I get that, but the signing still counts as outbidding others. Seriously, Suarez was the 7th highest paid FA last winter. Bregman got the highest AAV in MLB the season before. The situation has changed, but we still have not signed our #1 target to a long term deal since 2016 with Price. If your "seriously" was aimed at what Sato's signing amount might be, that's a different issue, and I admit I have no idea what he will get. Yoshida got more than anyone thought he would, but Murakami got less than what MLBTR projected last winter. It wasn't even close! #4 Murakami estimated at $180M/8: he got $34M/2 #19 Okamoto got slightly less than projected: $60M/4 vs a projected $64M/4. Sato seems way better than these two, and I suppose you think he'll get way more than we offered Bregman. I'm not so sure. (Maybe he does.)

How did Brez get Breg last year and Suarez this year, if ne never outbids anyone? I'm not sure Sato gets what Breg & Suarez got.

Notes on the Yankees pursuit of Rutschman... Baltimore was willing to move Rutschman to the Bronx for a four-player package consisting of Austin Wells, Elmer Rodriguez, outfield prospect Yostin Pena, and one of either Ryan Weathers or Will Warren. The Yankees rejected this offer, with Heyman noting that Pena’s inclusion was “one big sticking point” in the negotiations. Heyman frames the situation as the Orioles giving the Yankees and Rays a final chance to top Boston’s offer, but it isn’t specified if the aforementioned four-player package was actually Baltimore’s final ask.

Chapman passed the physical and his option vested.

Am I the only one not encouraged about this? Red Sox outfielder Roman Anthony was knocked out of the Wild Card round with a recurrence of the hand issue that cost him most of the regular season. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow told reporters on Monday that the injury is not expected to require surgery. The update strikes a more positive note than the feedabck from manager Chad Tracy after Anthony was removed from the playoff roster. The skipper told reporters that Anthony not only aggravated the hand injury, but strained different muscles in his wrist. “It’s not great,” Tracy said at the time.

Sonny Gray wants to pitch in 2027... “I still want to win a World Series, whether that is [with] Boston or with whoever wants me.”

White, Casas and Eaton are all out of options, so I think we say good bye to Eaton and White and tender Jones and Casas. That's assuming the Casas most up to date health report is not gloomy. I won't be shocked if he is non tendered.

It's hard to start the season earlier into March, especially for northern teams without a dome stadium. If you push too far back into October, the playoffs go into November and maybe cold times in some places. I think we can take the heat off a 162 games season in the same time frame by expanding the roster to 27 or 28, and the 40 to 44. This would be a major give by owners to players, as the pay differential between 26 and 40 man roster is a pretty big deal to many players. Raising the 40 to 44 would also add a lot of security and higher pay to the high amount of bubble-type players in baseball. Shorten the arb years, pre-arb years and raise the min wage for MLB players and 40 man roster minor league players and you'd gain 30-40% support from the players, who will never be affected by salary caps. Create a floor cap and the middle paid 30-40% would jump aboard.

I really like Durbin at 3B, but Mead is no plus on D at 2B, and if adding Sato gives us the big bat we need and 3B is best for him, I wouldn't be against upgrading 2B defense with Durbin with an equal downgrade at 3B with Sato v Durbin. There are other ways to use Sato (DH, LF or maybe 2B, if he's better than mead there.) Maybe this is best: Dump Duran, Story & Yoshida.... C Rutschman & Gasper (Jo Garcia) 1B Contreras, Sogard (Brannon) 2B Sato/Mead, Seigler (Rodgers) 3B Durbin/Sato (Romero/Winnay) SS Arias, Monasterio (McDonough/Godbout) LF Anthony, White or Jones (J Gonzales) CF Rafaela (Ward) RF Abreu (Campbell) DH Mead/Sato, Romy (Cespedes)

2026 OPS+ of our best defensive players: 117 Abreu RF GG 113 Rafaela CF GG 108 Rutschman C (2 teams) 101 Durbin 3B near GG 73 Cheng SS (out of options & likely a goner) Okay on D: 153 Contreras 1B We should not have to sacrifice defense to upgrade the offense, but certainly we could choose one of these guys to try and upgrade on offense. One could argue Rafaela may not ever repeat 113 and Durbin may never get much higher than 101. I think Abreu & Rutschman and probably Rafaela & Durbin are super duper long shots at being replaced. I don't see 1B being touched, especially since Mead can play 1B. That leaves SS, 2B, LF and DH, but Mead was an attempt to upgrade offense, and he can cover 2B or DH and back up 1B. Anthony can cover LF or DH, and we have Arias at SS. This gives Brez 4 positions to look at, while having the ability to shuffle guys around to more cover other slots left untouched. If we sign Sato, he need not be the 3Bman.

He's like take PAs away from our DH (106 OPS+), 3B (100) and LF (83) positions. Hopefully, Mead upgrades 2B (93,) and Rutschman upgrades C (82) I have made this point nearly every year, and it never seems to amount to much, but here I go again: if we can replace these bad numbers by adding a big bat (Sato or Suzuki) plus more PAs from Mead, Rutschman and Anthony, we could see massive gains on offense- assuming no unexpected major set-backs: OPS+ 2026 Player (PAs in 2026)> Replaced by.... Catcher: 52 Narvaez (197) & 86 Wong (238)> Rutschman LF: 61 Eaton (60,) 76 Duran (608,) 91 White (60)> Anthony/Suzuki/Sato 2B: 60 Mayer (228) 81 IKF (183) 88 Monasterio (347)> Mead/Durbin/Sato 3B: 100 Durbin (586 to 2B?)> Sato? DH: 62 Romy (73) 108 Anthony 242,) 111 Yoshida (297)> Sato/Mead

Sato's numbers are off the charts, but of course, how well it translates to MLB is the big "if." Murakami and Okamoto kinda upped the trust level via the recency effect, but how reliable is that? His defense has been called a "mixed bag," so I do worry, if he'll be the next Yoshida- doomed to DH, but with a better bat. I'd be fine with Contreras 1B, Mead 2B, Arias SS and Durbin 3B with Sato at DH and Anthony in LF, but the cost of Story and Yoshida on the bench seems to be the fly in the ointment. Story as the back-up SS, 2B and maybe even 3Bman would be nice, but he's balk or pout, and we have some decent infield depth, anyway. (I like Sogard as the top utility guy.) I'm not sure outbidding everyone for Sato and then DH'ing him is the best bang for the buck, but we need a big bat, and he might be the best out there, without costing any players- just money. I suppose we could trade Durbin or Mead (Durbin to 2B) but then we hurt the D or lose Mead, who might be our 2027 projected best batter, as of now. Sato could play LF, but is he better than Anthony on D? (Maybe it could help keep Roman healthier by making him the FT DH, but who knows?) I've been talked out of BLowe as a good fit. I'm not sure Suzuki is the answer- just because he's the best MLB FA batter this winter. Right now, I like Sato, but maybe someone talks me down for that opinion. Sato's XBH total from 2025-2026 is stunningly high.

And ATL paid the full boat in 2025, so who cares about how much ATL actually paid him for one season? Oh, one guy does.

I agree. I'd like to see us give Arias the SS job. I could see us keeping Story around as the 2Bman and back-up SS, but I'm not sure how accepting he'd be of that idea, and Story at 2B forces Mead to DH, Anthony to LF and Yoshida to ____? I don't think keeping the out of options Cheng around as the back up makes sense. Monasterio is okay for the short term, but not more than a week or 10 days. Sogard is good, but his SS defense is not. Another option would be to trade Arias for a proven big bat SS. We might have to add Justin Gonzalez or Valera or maybe Primera, but it could fix the missing bat problem.

Plenty of room. To me, guys like Duran, Yoshida and Story and Wong are taking away from off season adds more than Casas, but of course they are more complex in dumping. Plus, Wong would need a catcher to replace him, unless we roll the dice with Gasper. (Jo Garcia is Rule 5.) We don't need White & Jones (both with no options), even if we trade Duran. Eaton & Cheng are now out of options. Bye-bye. See above, where Casas could easily be #35.

I agree, and maybe even 35 or 36. Keep him, and if we sign a bunch of players, we can trade him later. His arb cost will not be crippling. 40 Man Outlook 28 Keepers: Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony, Mead, Contreras, Durbin, Rutschman, Sogard Gasper, Romy, Seigler, Monasterio, Campbell Tolle, Crochet, Suarez, Bennett, Bello, Oviedo, Houck, Crawford, Paez Chapman, Whitlock, Miller, Guerrero, Weissert, Slaten _____________________________ 4 Trade: Duran, Wong, Yoshida, Story 4 with 0 Options: Moran, White, Jones, Cheng ______________36 Total___________________________ If we don't trade anyone from above... My guess is we don't keep White OR Jones and trade someone (1-2) from Cheng, Monasterio, Seigler, Romy and maybe one from Weissert, Slaten or Samaniego. It will be hard to trade Yoshida or Story. I'm not sure about Duran. If we DFA or trade Wong, I doubt we slot Gasper as #2C, so we'd have to add a catcher (Jo Garcia?) 37 Samaniego 38 Eaton (0 options) 39 Casas 40 Gamboa 41 Rivera 42 Olds 43 Kelly 44 Burgos Rule 5: Wehunt, Brannon, Jo Garcia

You could go 3 x 16 other league=48 6 x 12 own league=72 14 x 3 own div=42

Zero chance the contract. That doesn't change my opinion that it should. On the second point: They probably start with 70 Floor/$270 ceiling 80/280 90/285 100/290 110/295 120/300 (end of 5 year deal)

That's impossible to know, so they'd be throwing away the chance of a bounce back. I don't have high hopes he'll return, and if he does, it might not be near .800, but I'd rather roll the dice on a long shot return by an .800 batter than roll the dice on a near replacement level player with a 95-99% good health outlook. (Note: we have enough of them to create a roster space for Casas.) Now, I am not for starting the season with 7-8 guys on the 60 Day IL. While they technically don't take away a roster slot from someone like Eaton, Burgos or Kelly, there should be a limit on how many people you pay to never play. I'm against nontendering Tristan but would not be upset if we choose to do so.

I would never bench Durbin so Story could start. I guess one of my options (not a suggestion) was we could trade Arias, but I think all of those were for a returning SS.

I think we have enough other bubble players to shed before we give up on Casas. Brez loves to trade bubble players, anyway, so there may be more slots open than even I project. I don't think we go quantity on additions when we clearly need quality, but I've felt this way for years, and only last winter seemed like the shift moved in that direction. Even then, it wasn't for top quality. Contreras, Suarez and Gray ended up playing like top quality, but most felt they were just really good players and not "top quality." Yes, Casas would be expected to play in AAA, if he stays on the 40.

MLBTR ARB Estimates: $11.1 Duran (I'd say no- trade, non tender?) $9.1 Rutschman (lock) $4.6 Abreu (lock- maybe extend) $2.8 Crawford (lock) $2.0 Wong (could be traded or non tendered) $1.8 Romy (I'd bring him back.) $1.8 Oviedo (near lock, unless health issue) $1.7 Casas (I'd roll the dice.) $1.6 Monasterio (not so sure) $1.5 Miller (lock) $1.4 White (out of options may force a trade) $1.2 Weissert (lock) $1.2 Slaten (likely) $1.1M Guerrero (We always need a Guerrero on the team.) $900 Jones (out of options) $800K Kelly (at that price, maybe try another year) That's about $44M. (Not added from their 2026 cost, but some is.)

These players are currently on the 40: (47 counting 7 on 60 Day IL) To be FAs: IKF, Sandoval & Gray Olds & Burgos Rivera & Gamboa Kelly & Moran (both out of options) Cheng, Eaton, Jones & White (all out of options) Arb or non-tender? Casas & Duran Salary issues: Yoshida & Story

LOL, correct!

I doubt we sign one from Sato, Suzuki or Lowe. Signing two does not belong on the realistic thread.