moonslav59

Spotrac Tax Payroll: 2025: Sox were 7th at $249M 2026: Sox are currently 8th at $235M, but we are $16M from #7 ATL and $21M from SDP. I'm not sure we get any higher ranked and HOU is about tied with us, sowe could drop to 9th, at worst. TOR just signed Okamoto and will pass the NYY for 4th. NYY might re-sign Bellinger, so the top 5 will likely not be touched by any other team. Top 10, as of now 342 LAD (really 425 after tax) 303 NYM (343 after tax) 301 PHI (340 after tax) 280 NYY (pre Bellinger) 300 after tax 279 TOR (pre Okamoto) 292 after tax 255 SDP (258 after tax) 250 ATL (251 after tax) 235 BOS (not over tax line, right now) 234 HOU 206 SFG

At his age, I'd project .790 to .815 tops- maybe ,815-.830 if only platooned.

But you and others keep saying he's not spending or is "cheap." Spending unwisely is a different story and is more on Brez than JH, anyway. Sure, JH might be insisting on no long term deals, so that ties Brez's hands, but there are some good deals out there that are not long, and we have made some good ones and some bad ones (more from Bloom than Brez.) Was the Breggie deal unwise? Was the Chapman deal and extension unwise? Was the Crochet trade and extension unwise? Were the Devers, Bello, Rafaela, Campbell & Anthony extensions unwise? Of course, some unwise moves have been made, and of course that is what we always hear from you about- and only those. The Buehler signing was a disaster, but it was far from a dumpster dive. He was a better bet than Kluber, Richards and paxton were- perhaps combined. The Sale trade was a disaster, but made some sense at the time, and apparently the money saved was used to sign Gio, who did give us some value back, as without him we don't make the 2025 playoffs. The Priester trade was a "dumpster dive" by MIL, and that worked out poorly for us, but some of our dives like for Romy, Wilson, Matz and others did fine. Look, I'm not very optimistic either on JH's future spending plans, but they guy has spent a ton in the two decades in BOS. He's pulled back and splurged a few times. Based on our ranking in revenues, we can cry and cry that we need to spend more, but these rich guys are in this to make money and maximize profit. Focusing on one rich guy and acting like he's the evil one is misguided. Saying he's cheap is just plain untrue. I'm not defending JH, but we are are about 8th or 9th in spending for 2026 and have dished out a lot of new cash since the Devers extension kicked in. We've lost a lot, too, including the Devers dump, but we are a top 8 or 9 spender, right now. That's not cheap. If you wanna talk about unwise spending, talk about Bloom & Brez.

True, but they did bring his $40M in 2025 down to a $32M AAV for the tax line. If they do something similar, then trade Duran ($7.8) + Crawford ($2.7) for a SP'eeer make $5M, liek Lodolo, maybe they can make it work.

I doubt they got news none of us got. They've shuffled our 5th starter so many times, I'm not sure what new information does that. All-in-all, they do a fine job, though.

Exactly. That's all BTV does, and they seem to overvalue and undervalue several players, so it is what it is. Nobody is pretending it matches what GM want ot need. Here are a few examples of where I think the get some Sox players' value wrong- some seem way off. $22M Crawford: Okay, he was pretty good in '23 and led the team in IP in '24. I'm higher on Harrison at $6.6M than Kutter. $18M Casas: Again, a few years ago, he showed he could hit. They have Romy at $12M. These two might be the worst: $11M Cespedes & $10M Romero. Why? Bennett & Harrison are $7M, Valera is just $6M. When you take away the salary and look at how they just plain value the players, it looks more realistic, but then guys like Cespedes have zero value. Their rankings of prospects seems suspect, at best. On vets, the years of control is a big component, as it should be: $240 Crochet, 220 Anthony, 112 Campbell 94 Rafaela, 83 Duran, 79 Mayer, Early, 76 Bello 56 Abreu, 50 Tolle, 41 Narvaez, 36 Whitlock, 35 Kutte 32 Gray, 27 Contreras & Casas, 26 Slaten, 21 Romy 20 Story, 18 Chapman & Sandoval, 14 Harrison, 13 Oviedo 10 Masa, 7 Weissert, 5 Sogard & Wong, 4 Hicks & DHam 0 Everyone else

I think Paredes is worth more than the $11M BTV assigns him, but I'm not sure he's worth Bello. I'd give them Crawford (valued at $22M.) Maybe we could get Paredes plus Sousa or King for IP. I really like Paredes, but I view Bello as significant;y better than Sandoval, Crawford & Harrison- our likely 4-5-6 SP'ers. We can't afford a major step down in the rotation and its depth, as now Harrison becomes the #5, and that's assuming Kutter and Patrick don't start the year on the IL, otherwise, Harrison is our #3 with Tolle & Early pressed into MLB roles on day one. I might give Kristian Campbell for Paredes and King.

Our top everyday prospects seem to fit well with openings that may arise in the near future: SS #2 Arias (Story to 2B?) OF #7 Gonzales (Should be ready when Duran's control ends) SS #8 Soto (Is far away from the bigs, so maybe when DHam/Sogard are gone.) 2B #12 Godbout (Wish he was ready, now.) UT #13 Romero (May get a look, this season) The lack of top everyday prospects is not so bad, since most of our positional players are under team control for 3 or more years. 2 yrs: Contreras, Yoshida 3 yrs: Duran, Story, Casas & Romy

The 2025 season saw 4 major prospects graduate: Roman Anthony Marcelo Mayer Kristian Campbell Carlos Narvaez The year before we saw Rafaela, Abreu, DHam & Slaten graduate. This year it looks like Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, Ryan Watson and maybe David Sandlin, Tyler Uberstine or Shane Drohan do so. This would mark the serious shift our farm has gone from everyday players graduation 7 of the last 8 to maybe seeing 3-5 pitchers as the only grads, this year. According to soxprospects.com, 8 of our top 11 prospects are pitchers. 12 of the top 17, too. Not bad, when you consider our MLB staff has these aged pitchers: 23 Harrison 26 Crochet & Bello 27 Slaten 28 Moran 29 Whitlock 30 Weissert & Kelly

I can sometimes be a stickler for semantics, but I keep hearing hos JH is "cheap," when he actually has spent a lot for two decades and for the the the last 2-3 years. The Devers extension was signed in JAN 2023, but it I believe it started in 2024, so more like 2 years. It sucked from 2019 (not re-signing or replacing Kimbrel & Kelly) through the Betts trade and countless stars leaving without in-kind replacements, but the spending has returned. We can argue it should be more, but saying he's not spending or is cheap is not needed (nor true) to make that point.

And, we were one of 9 teams going over the tax line in 2025. We went over by the 7th most.

I think we all want us to get better, anyway-anyhow. Spotrac has us 8th, right now. $16M from #7.

That's fine, but that is not the same as saying JH does not spend a lot. I wish he'd spend more, too. I don't get pissed because he's like most businessmen.

Devers was not a FA. The $40M for Bregman was more like $32M. The $21M for Gray is exactly what we paid Buehler, who was the highest pitcher AAV since Sale (extension) and Price as a FA. Contreras costs us $21.5M as AAV. That's not as much as Breggie, but it's the second highest since Story's, when compared to just FA signings, which your point. No, this is not as much spending as last winter, and since that was on the heels of the Devers extension kicking, this is not as much, but we are seeing the Crochet extension kicking in, as well as Anthony & Campbell's. New AAV added for 2026: +$24.5M Crochet ($3.8M to $28.3M extension) $21M S Gray ($41M- $20M paid by STL) $21.3M Contreras $16.3M Anthony extension $10.3M Hicks (part of Devers dump) $7.5M Campbell extension +$2.5M Chapman ($10.8M to $13.3M extension) Again, this is not meant as a defense for JH, but they guys has spent some heavy new money. This might be more new money spent than almost any other team, so far. Granted, we dumped Devers and lost some heavy salaries for Buehler, Gio and some lesser ones, too. I do not think we are done spending, either.

They could differ so much maybe keep us under the 2nd line. It might take some salary trade aways, too.

Probably $120M/3 maybe with an opt out. Maybe $110/3 with a 4th year option at $30M and a $10M buyout.

Cheaper than a FA, yes, but not cheap. Gray cost us $21M and for once we got the other team to pay some cash. Contreras has a decent salary- yes cheaper than if he was a FA, but still we added a lot of salary, so far.

Why assume Moran flames out? Did you see my breakdown on TOR NYY and BOS top 3 pitchers? I'm also hoping we can add a number 2, but our 1-2-3 are as good or better than TOR & NYY. Our 6-9 SP'ers beat almost everyone's. Our 4-5 suffer, but they don't start in the playoffs, as you pointed out.

What does that mean, if it does not include an extra year added? Did he start with 2 years, go to 3, then 4 and is not "pushing hard" towards 5, or just adding some dollars to 4 years? How do you envision this "hard push?" I'm not saying you are wrong, but I'm curious just how much he can do, if the limit is 4 years, and Breggie is demanding 5+. Why offer the same money for 4 as someone with a 5 year offer?

He wants to win without large and long deals. We and the league have a pretty terrible record with large and long FA deals. We do spend, despite what you claim. I wish we spent more. I think we can win while staying below the second line, but we have to not swing and miss on the next deal or two, and we need some luck with health and progressions over regressions.

For what it's worth, soxprospects.com has Casas, Houck, Crawford and Sandoval beginning the season on the IL. They project this opening day roster: SP: Crochet, Gray, Bello, Oviedo, Harrison (2 weeks ago, they listed Crawford as the #5. I've seen Early listed there at other times.) RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Hicks, Kelly, Watson & Moran (no remaining options) C: Narvaez & Wong 1B: Contreras 2B: Mayer SS: Story 3B: _______ (Acquisition) LF: Anthony CF: Rafaela RF: Abreu DH: Duran Bench: Romy, DHam, Yoshida (Wong) Others on 40: Houck (to 60 Day IL once the season begins) Crawford (IL) Sandoval (IL) Tolle, Early, Sandlin, Uberstine, Drohan, Bennett, Samaniento Casas (IL) Campbell, Sogard, Eaton, T Gray Counting Houck, that's 10 pitchers and just 5 everyday players on the farm and on the 40. It's nice that Contreras can cover the Catcher position for a few days, until we can find and add a 3rd Catcher to the 40, so that saves an opening day roster slot. Watson is Rule 5, so he will have to be sent back, if removed from the 26, unless via IL. Moran and Hicks are out of options: Kelly is not. My guess is we make that 3B acquisition and trade or DFA a pitcher. We may also trade an OF'er- maybe with a pitcher for another player (3B/2B?) or pitcher (SP#2? or LH RP?). I don't see a 40 man roster crunch, and we can fill Houck's slot quickly, once the season starts, but when we get some players back from injury someone like Hicks, Moran or Watson will likely have to go. When Casas is ready, maybe we try to dump Masa or demote DHamor Yoshida.

He had surgery in mid May 2025. Just about everything I read says this, but it seems doubtful: "Extensive rehab, aiming for a return for the start of the 2026 season (Opening Day). "

Perhaps. Maybe some Sox exec told Olney that, and he felt $120M/3 was "aggressive." In terms of AAV, it is, but it's likely not what Breggie wants. Apparently, he wants 5 years, but $150M/5 is just $30M/2 more than the $120M/3 offer I mentioned. I'm still thinking we settle on Suarez. The Okamoto clock runs out Sunday, so if Breggie is not signed, or we know we are out of that race, we need to act soon on him or be elft with one fewer "fall back."

Gray and Contreras are "marginal" or "complimentary?" Gray is top 10 in SP fWAR in 2025, 2024 to 2025 or 2023-2025. Contreras is a top 35 OPS guy for the last 2-3 years combined. Sure, Oviedo, Watson and some others are marginal/complementary, but those are needed, too. We are one big bat or two good players away from being significantly better than 2025.

When you add some players mentioned in trades, like KMarte, Donovan, Vientos, Lodolo, Gore, Alcantara, Bubic, Ragans and others, there are still plenty of options out there. getting two would be great, but we'd have to make a trade for that to happen and not get the budget where JH says NO. To get two, we'd have to pass on Bregman and Bichette, IMO. Suarez or Okamoto could fit the budget model, and trading Duran ($7.8 AAV) for a solid SP like Lodolo ($5.2M) might keep us under the second tax line, which is maybe $24M away. $25M a year for Suarez or Okamoto minus $2.6M on the trade, and we squeak under the 2nd line. Try to get CIN to take Hicks plus $6M a year and we'd save another $4M a year in AAV. I think this looks like a significantly better team: 1. L Anthony LF 2. R Contreras 1B/C 3. L Abreu RF 4. R Suarez/Okamoto 3B 5. R Story SS 6. L Yoshida DH/R Romy DH/2B or R Campbell DH 7. R Narvaez C/L Casas 1B (Contreras at C) 8. L Mayer 2B/ R Romy 2B 9. R Rafaela CF Bench: Wong, Romy, Campbell, DHam/Casas/Sogard/Eaton (TGray/Romero/Ward) SP: Crochet, Gray, Lodolo, Bello, Sandoval/Oviedo (Tolle/Early) RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Chapman. Harrison, Watson, Hicks/Moran (Kelly/Sandlin/Mullins/Uberstine/Drohan/Gamboa) I LIKE THIS ROSTER!