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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    Those "special projects" are not the way I'd spend the money, for sure. We are like O for 15, now. He's not much different than Kluber, who was a Cy Young winner a few years before we signed him. He's not much different from Richards who was a fine pitcher years before. Paxton, too. The only difference, and it may not matter is this... Kluber was 37. Richards was 33-34. Paxton was 34 & 35. Sandoval was 28, last season and will be 29, this season. Again, my placement of Sandoval as our #4, and I'd be fine with Oviedo #4 and Sandoval #5, is based on a highly dubious assumption that all our pitchers are 100% healthy. He may end up our 9th starter or never start one game for us. I fully understand that. When he's healthy, he's shown he can pitch very well for long stretches, unlike many others in consideration for those 4 and 5 slots. Who else has proven they can go 24+ MLB starts and put up very nice numbers? 1. Crochet 2. Gray 3. Bello 4. Sandoval
  2. moonslav59
    Yes, that's why I said "Dobbins, at the time," as in when he was still part of the rotation discussion, injury and all.
  3. moonslav59
    My point was that we did about what a random chance study would expect. I'm not happy with that. We should have done better. We spent more than most teams over those years. We underperformed based on spending. That's on Bloom. The reduced new spending was on JH. JH has been spending more since the Devers extension, so let's see where we go from here. If this team looked like crap, I'd be more upset about spending levels and management philosophies. I think we are trending in the right direction. We are spending significantly more- just in different ways. We made the playoffs in 2025 and I'm hoping with 1 or 2 more additions, we can be a top 4-5 team on paper by opening day. I have not felt like we are one big player away for a long time.
  4. moonslav59
    Sandoval's non return to action in 2025 is very concerning. He will not be handed a rotation slot, if he has health issues or is not doing well in ST'ing. When I slot him as our #4, I usually state that this is assuming everyone, including Crawford and Dobbins, at the time are at 100%. That's a big qualifier- I know. The Sox gave him almost $18M. They must think he's good enough for the 4/5 slot, if healthy. You don't earn a 3.7fWAR in under 150 IP by being lucky. (Sandoval in 2022.) He was top 40 in fWAR from 2021-2022 (200+ IP) at 5.4. He remained top 40 when you include 2023 (350+ IP) with a 7.7 fWAR. Int hose 3 years, only 36 pitchers pitched more IP and had a higher fWAR. His 5.7 bWAR is not as impressive, but it's still good enough to make our 5 man rotation, if he can return to that form.
  5. moonslav59
    Agreed, although I think Breggie might allow just enough money to be deferred so we stay under a tax line.
  6. moonslav59
    That talk never bothered me. I was part of those talks for many of years. Of course it was and still is justified. JH stood idle as the team tanked. That does not mean we have to misrepresent what he's done recently just to drive home a point.
  7. moonslav59
    I'm fine with your view, but I think differently. Among other things, I look at Lux Tax dollars and only 6 teams paid a higher 2025 Lux Tax than BOS. I look at spending trends, and we have certainly trended upwards at a sharp incline. Granted, this needs context, as we cut so much spending over the previous 4 seasons, that upward inclines are skewed. I am thrilled to see the change in philosophy on extending our best young players to long deal- years beyond their control ends. The extensions to vets like Devers, Crochet and Chapman are also good signs of change. This in no way excuses what JH & Co. did beginning in 2019 and more or less continuing until the end of 2024.
  8. moonslav59
    I thought I was saying the last time Beiber was any good was when Sandoval was. Of course, Cole and Rodon have shown they can be way better than Sandoval ever was- and Crawford, too. Speaking of last years these pitchers had big seasons.... Last 5 years 3.5+ fWAR seasons (BOLD=2022>) 6.2 Rodon '22, 5.0 '21 5.8 Crochet '25, 4.6 Crochet '24 5.5 Gausman '22, 5.3 '23, 4.8 '21, 4.1 '25 5.4 Gray '23. 3.8 '24, 3.6 '25 5.3 Cole '23, 5.2 '21 4.7 Bieber '22 4.5 Cease '21, 4.4 '22, 3.6 '23 3.7 Sandoval '22 How about last 3 years only 3.7 or better: 5.8 Crochet '25, 4.6 Crochet '24 5.3 Gausman '22, 4.1 '25 5.4 Gray '23. 3.8 '24, 3.6 '25 5.3 Cole '23
  9. moonslav59
    Sorry, My bad. I mixed you up with another poster. I happen to think Sandoval has promise. He was pretty good for 2 seasons. If he doesn't do well, maybe Crawford can pitch like 2023. If he doesn't do well, maybe the promise Harrison once had comes to fruition. If he sucks, we still have Tolle & Early. Let's hope we don't see 3-4 guys suck as we trial and error it to find the 4th or 5th guy that does well. We might be out of it by then. I think we have a solid 1-2-3 rotation. Our 4-5 are sketchy, and other teams have better 4s and 5s. I think our 6-9 SP'ers beat out almost every other team, and most teams need to go 8-9 deep or more, so maybe we gain there. fangraphs has our pitching ranked #2. I don't think I'm being a homer thinking our staff is pretty solid and deep.
  10. moonslav59
    Yup. 7 seasons and 2 playoffs. 7 seasons x 8 teams per playoff= 56 2/56= 1/28th. The league avg is 1/30th. The average team should have made it 2 times.
  11. moonslav59
    I'm not loving Sandoval. He was a really good pitcher a few years back, as was Crawford. He may come back: he may not. We've had horrible luck on pitchers returning from injury. Why all the love for Cole? Rodon starts the year on the IL, but somehow Yankess injuries are different? TOR has Bieber who was last good when Sandy was. Sandy was expected to come back and maybe be our 4/5, last year. Perhaps I mispoke.
  12. moonslav59
    Looks like the Cubs are bidding on Bellinger and forced the Yanks to make a counter offer.
  13. moonslav59
    Here's the short version: our spending level has been close to 2018 and 2019 for the 2025 and 2026 season. We maybe spend poorly, We may avoid large and long on FAs, but we are extending our best young players like never before. I have some beefs with JH & Co, but he has been spending much more, recently.
  14. moonslav59
    I've been highly critical of JH and team management, but I won't lie and say he doesn't spend to make my point. It's ok to hold both views.
  15. moonslav59
    I think there were two. I joined the site after one had left. I remember he joined forces with me on my "No Manny-No Rings" thread that went over 10,000 posts long, and I agreed with him on "Jake's" poor defense early in his career, but there was little else we were even close on. He despised Theo and anyone who defended him. The 2007 ring season blew him apart, but of course, he'd never admit it.
  16. moonslav59
    I can see some thinking yes. 2018 seems long ago, but there are 30 teams in MLB- maybe 10 that are really building for a strong chance, e very year. The history of 2 year lulls in sending seemed okay. Then, he went 4 years, and it's the firing squad for him.
  17. moonslav59
    I'd do it. I like the extra year of Wilyer, his defense, and his power more than Duran. His age, too. I'd prefer it be Duran, but I'd give RF to Anthony, in order to get Lodolo & McLain.
  18. moonslav59
    Hicks is owed $24M/2 and the tax nhit is $10.2M x 2. $24M-$14M= $10M we save and CIN pays.
  19. moonslav59
    The QO on Gallen is just one thing. He turns 31 and does not seem to be aging well. He has 3 straight ERA+ decline seasons: 158>126>115>89. His K rate dropped from 9.8 career up to 2025 to 8.2. He will probably get a 3+ year deal, unless he tries to reset. Gio would be okay on a 2 year deal, but he seemed hurt at the end of 2025. I'd pass. I'm thinking we need a big splash deal not a ripple in still water, when there is no pebble thrown- no wind to blow...
  20. moonslav59
    Anyone remember softlaw calling posters "Theo apologists" and "pink hat fans?"
  21. moonslav59
    Yes. I do not think he's worth more than last winter, except for maybe a 5% inflation add. I'm not sure what other $25M players we might sign, and all look to get 4,5 or more years. Suarez will get less years and maybe $21-23M AAV. Some players make around that via trade. Bassitt will take a 1-2 year deal, but is he what we need? Maybe getting him allows us to safely trade Crawford, Sandoval or Harrison with an OF'er to get a major Inf bat, but I'm not so sure. I'd rather have Bregman than Valdez. I doubt Ranger Suarez fits the Brez profile. I think I'd rather have Bregman at 4-5 years than Bichette at 6-7 years. Who else is there? Please don't say Gallen or Gio.
  22. moonslav59
    Texas teacher retirement has not been upgraded since 2002. There is no cost of living adjustments, One reason it is so cheap to live here is the low gov't spending, no income tax, & pretty low property taxes. The 8.5% sales tax hurts and is a regressive tax, but the Cost of Living is very low here. I'm a bigtime saver and miser, so we have a hefty IRA and investment portfolio. We could retire, now, but there is so much unknown about the economy, inflation and medical coverage, that we want to wait 1-2 more school years.
  23. moonslav59
    Here is a BTV approved trade that sends $6$M of value to CIN and just $47M to BOS, but I'd do it: To CIN: 46 Duran, 22 Crawford, 1 Hamilton & -18 Hicks +$14M cash. To BOS: 31 Lodolo & 16 McLain AAV balance: $4.6 Lodolo +$2M McLain = $6.6M to BOS $7.8 Duran+ $2.7 Crawford + $1M DHam + 3.5M Hicks balanced with cash= $15M. The Sox gain about $8M on the tax line and can maybe afford Breggie or Suarez.
  24. moonslav59
    Apparently, we are about $24M from the second tax line. My guess is any contract given to Breggie would include so much deferred money that it would come down to $23M or so. Another way to make it happen would be to trade some salary away for a lesser salary return. Duran is mentioned a lot, and he is due $7.75M. Lodolo is estimated at $4.55M. (-$3.2M) Gore ~$5M (-$2.75M) Ryan ~$6.1M (-$1.65M) We could add $2.7M by including Crawford. We could try to dump a small fraction of Hicks or Masa's contracts. Sandoval is at $8.5M AAV. More doubtful would be trading Rafaela (adjusted to $7.5M) or Campbell (adjusted to $8.5M.)
  25. moonslav59
    I shouldn't have to say it. If we had a dollar for every comment that misrepresents stating facts as apologizing or defending, we could have afforded Soto and Tucker.
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