moonslav59

I agree the rotation is better and the pen worse. We lost some rotation depth, but Tolle & Early look more like impact MLB SP'ers than they did last winter. Losing Gio hurt. Losing Buehler, May and a couple others might help. Losing Dobbins, Fitts and maybe Perales needs to be made up for with Tolle, Harrison for a full year and the returns of Crawford and Sandoval. All-in-all the rotation looks solid and deep. We are deep with 4-5-6 type SP'ers, and other teams might have better 4-5's, but having six to seven 4/5's helps a lot. We might be able to handle some of the pen losses by converting a starter or two into relief roles, even if just for a season. I said the same, last year, and we barely did that, as we ended up needed to trade for May and rush promote Tolle & Early, then used de Leon and Criswell. I have a big issue with thinking our line-up is better. While I believe is could be, we'd need an almost perfect confluence of luck, health and progressions for it to be better than 2025. I get how counting Devers and Lowe, who were not on the 2025 team for more than a 1/3 of the season is problematic when comparing this line-up to that, but they did give us some serious production value that cannot be ignored. The aspect of looking at what we lost from 2025 is that there are very few bad bats lost, except Toro. Bats lost from 2025 by PA ranking: 4. Bregman .821 in 495 PAs (OUCH!) 8. Devers .905 in 334 (Yes, he was still a top 9 batter by PAs) 10. Toto .659 in 284 (This is an area we can gain with Contreras) 12. Refsnyder .838 in 209 (OUCH!) 17. N Lowe .790 in 119 PAs (more PAs than Casas!) That's over 1050 good to great PAs lost and about 300 bad PAs lost, if you count 18 from Sabol and 9 from Garcia.) The argument I hear most is that we will get a full season from Anthony in 2026, and that is exciting, assuming he stays healthy, but he was already a top 9 batter by PAs with 303, so maybe he replaces 300-350 of that 1050 lost. That leaves us with 700 PAs lost. Even if N Lowe gives us 700, he's about a .790 batter, which was what the lowest batter lost hit (Lowe at .790.) Maybe Mayer gives us a boost, but can we count on him doing much better? We have many players in peak prime years or fast approaching them, and counting on progression is reasonable. They should outweigh the regressions by the very few post prime players we have, namely Story and Masa. Perhaps that brings us back to even with 2025, but that is assuming near perfect health for our best hitters or some gigantic jump by someone(s.) Lets go by position and 2025's OPS: .653 Catcher (Maybe Narvaez regresses some- maybe not. I think Wong hits better, so maybe we stay even. Perhaps Contreras plays some catcher and gives us a slight boost.) Let's project .673 (+20) .691 1B: Let's assume Contreras helps improve the defense at 1B and jumps the team OPS to .791. (+100) .670 2B: It's hard to project this slot. KC, DHam and others hit poorly, while Romy did well. It may be optimistic to think .670 (+0) .736 SS: I have to project regression, here: .716 counting back-ups (-20) .777 3B: Another hard one to project, but assuming Mayer & Co: .677 (-100) This puts the offense even going into the OF and DH. I'm combining these because as we look now, we have 4 OF'ers and 3 OF slots. I project Duran would DH a lot, if we don't trade anyone. If Rafaela plays 2B, it wouldn't change that OPS projection much, and we'd go with Masa/Casas/Campbell at DH. A lot depends on where Anthony plays, but let's go with Duran at DH, Anthony in LF, Rafaela in CF, Abreu in RF for data purposes. .781 LF: Anthony > Duran (+100) .774 CF: Rafaela FT drops this to .724 (-50) .822 RF: Abreu FT? is hard to project the same: I'll go .802 (-20) .823 DH: Thanks mostly to Devers. Let's say Duran hits like his 2025 OPS and helps the DH slot bat .773. That's -60 These 4 slots combine for minus 30. Maybe they can stay even. I'm seeing staying even as being optimistic. Being better is pushing it. The closeness highlights how adding one major bat can move us to plus on O, plus on D, plus on SP'ing and a big Q for the pen.

I always think fangraphs is generous when it assigns "value" to a player's production, and apparently it is open market FA value given. Here has been Bogey's "value" in 3 years with SDP: $36M '23 $16M '24 $26M '25 $78M/3= $26M a year, which is about what many felt we might have gotten him to sign a year or two before he became a FA. (We had signed Story to $23.3M x 6, so $26M x 6 might have been possible.) He's 33, now, and while he upticked some in 2025 after a bad '24 season, I'm not sure he'll be worth $26M x 3 more years. No doubt, I'd have wanted him at $26M x 6, 4-5 years ago. He was worth a lot on 21 ($33M) and '22 ($48M) but even if we added the 6 years to start in '23, I'd have liked that deal. I'll never be sure he would have accepted $26M x 4 back in '21 or '22. I'm not ron up over losing him, but when you add his name to Lester, Betts, JD, Sale and so many others not replaced, it still sting.

All it takes is an offer he likes.

I think Contreras will be a big help. I also think he might catch more than some expect. The words was STL was preparing to play him more at catcher in 2026. They were loaded at catcher in '25. Even if he just plays a little late inning stints at catcher, it's nice to have a PH option and the flexibility to move guys around. Cora loves that! I seriously doubt we go over the second tax line, so adding a huge contract means we have to unload some. Of course Hicks and Masa come to mind, but that is likely just a dream and might save just $3-6M each on trades for nothing. More likely we'd trade Duran ($7.75M) for something much less costly. Is signing Bregman and trading Duran for prospects improving the offense? Duran for Lodolo only saves about $2-3M. Not enough. Other adjusted AAVs: (WHAT THE OTHER TEAM TAKES ON, not what we SAVE.) $27.5M Story (We'd have another IF hole to fill) $13M Bello (Maybe this is why we keep hearing his name in trade talks.) $9.1 Sandoval (Not sure many teams want to pay that much for an injury question. Too bad there isn't another Brez in MLB.) $8.4M Campbell $8m Rafaela (Move Anthony or Duran to CF?) $7.8M Duran $4M Houck (Only Brez would trade for a guy like Houck.) $2.8 Crawford (Not much relief.) The AAV we'd save by trading away for nothing added: $23.3 Story $18.0 Masa $10.3 Hicks $9.2 Bello $9.1 Sandoval $7.8 Duran $7.5 Campbell $6.3 Rafaela $4.0 Houck $2.8 Crawford It really sucks thinking of ways to save JH tax payments.

A perfect fit for the Sox would be Jose Ramirez from the Guardians, but I'm sure they are not looking at trading him. He is 33 and has 3 years of control ($23M adjusted AAV.) BTV has the switch hitter (career splits both at about .855) worth just $34M, which I find puzzling. They say Crawford (22) + Campbell (19) would be an overpay, but I'd do it in a heartbeat. 1. L Anthony LF 2. S Ramirez 3B 3. L Duran DH 4. R Contreras 1B/C 5. L Abreu RF 6. R Story SS 7. L Casas 1B/ R Narvaez C 8. L Mayer 2B/ R Romy 2B 9. R Rafaela CF

I know some of my trade suggestions are wild, and this may be my wildest... To TBR: Duran ($7.7M), DHam, Wong and Yoshida ($36M/2) + $10M cash To BOS: Y Diaz ($26M/2) & Jax Griffin ($9M/2) The money is about even. The Rays get a 2Bman and catcher. Yoshida replaces Diaz at DH and Duran gives them a pretty cheap star. We get Diaz to DH, unload Masa and can play Contreras at C, instead of Wong, play Diaz at 1B and DH Campbell or Romy, when Diaz is at 1B. We also get a nice RP'er. I'm not sure that's the best we can get for Duran, but we do unload Masa without taking on a salary dump in return and we stay even on the budget, which could allow us to still sign Suarez or Okamoto or ...gasp ... Breggie or Bichette. Let's say we sign Suarez... 1. L Anthony LF 2. R Diaz DH/1B 3. R Contreras 1B/C 4. L Abreu RF 5. R Suarez 3B 6. R Story SS 7. L Mayer/ R Romy 2B 8. R Narvaez C/ L Casas DH or R Campbell DH 9. R Rafaela CF Now, we'd have a very RHB tilted line-up. (Okamoto is a RHB, too.)

Some big upsets in college football. #10 MIA beat #2 Ohio St. (Gotts love it!) #6 Ole Miss upset #3 Georgia #5 Oregon with a mild upset of #4 Texas Tech #1 Indiana killed #9 Alabama, which was a little surprising. (Looks like maybe MIA deserved their slot but maybe not ALA.) Maybe the SEC is not as good as people think as other SEC teams lost, too: TXA&M to MIA LSU to HOU TN to ILL Vandy to IA The only SEC teams to win were ones that beat another SEC team! Their record is 1-6 with Ole Miss still alive. ______________________ JAN 8 6 Ole Miss v 10 Miami JAN 9 1 Indiana v 5 Oregon GO Hoosiers!!!!

Could we see Contreras and his decent OBP bat second? 1. L Anthony LF 2. R Contreras 1B 3. L Duran DH 4. R Story SS 5. L Abreu RF 6. L Mayer 3B 7. R Narvaez C/ R Romy 2B 8. L DHam 2B/ R Narvaez C 9. R Rafaela C _________________ If we trade Duran, maybe Yoshida/Romy up 2nd? 1. L Anthony LF 2. L Yoshida DH/R Romy 2B 3. R Contreras 1B 4. L Abreu RF 5. R Story SS 6. L Mayer 3B/R Narvaez C 7. R Narvaez C/L Mayer 3B 8. L DHam 2B/ R Campbell DH 9. R Rafaela CF _______________________ I hope we add a 2B/3Bman and don't have to do this.

When you look at the MLB everyday player roster and team control. There are no positions beyond 3B or 2B that needs filling. Yoshida (DH) is gone after 2027. Story (SS) & Contreras (1B) have an option year for 2028. Duran (LF) Romy (2B/1B) Wong (C) and Casas (DH/1B) are gone after 2029. That's a pretty amazing set-up, and it positions us well, when you consider our everyday farm strength, especially near MLB ready is not that strong. Here is how it may play out: 3B/2B (if we fill for 2026 w a 1 yr guy) Mayer or Romy (Eaton, Sogard, Arias, Romero) DH (Yoshida gone) after 2027: Duran/Campbell/Casas SS (Story gone) after 2027 or 2028: Mayer/Arias 1B (Contreras gone) after '27 or '28: Casas/Romy/Campbell LF (Duran gone) after 2028: We have 3 OF'ers + Campbell C (Wong gone) after 2028: We have Jo Garcia/Guzman/ J Rodriguez (Heyman/Primera) It doesn't look so bad for the short or long term with the everyday roster. _________________________ The pitching situation looks like it could get better as time goes by, but we do lose some key pen pieces soon. After... 2026 Whitlock >> converted SP or Sandlin/Mullins/Paez Sandoval>> Houck/Tolle/Early/Harrison/Bennett 2027: Gray (option)>> Tolle/Early/Harrison/Bennett Chapman (option)>> Slaten/Weissert move up? Houck & Oviedo>> see Gray Hicks (thank you)>> see Chapman 2028 Crawford>> Valera/Holobetz/Witherspoon/Phillips/Eyanson

What's the chance one from Bleis, Cespedes or Castro turn things around. My guess is the chanc etwo do is near zero.

Just accommodate my wish for KMarte, Suarez or Okamoto and maybe a #2 SP.

At 5 or more years, for sure. (Maybe 4, too) Same with Bichette at 5 or 6..

I thought he said he'd be shutting down talks soon, if nothing happens

We might be at 4, but if we need to go 5, we are out, IMO.

I agree and feel like 5 is too much for Bichette, despite his age. Just get Suarez for 2 or Okamoto for 3. If we trade an OF'er than go OF + #4/5 SP for a #2 SP.

Either or both could have great or even monster seasons. Both could also never earn a promotion in 2026. To a larger extent, Mayer is a wild card, because he will likely be handed a starting position on opening day.

He can try all he wants, but if he's not allowed to or wont go 5+ years, it probably won't matter. If someone offers $150M/4, is it worth offering him $135-140M/4? (Brez may not even go 4 years, anyway.)

We did lose Bregman, Gio, Ref, Lowe and Wilson to free agency, and he did trade Devers midseason. Brez has been active with trades, but yes, most were fringy types: Dobbins, Fitts & Perales Bernardino, Murphy & Guerrero Clarke, Travies & Fajardo Aita & Hoppe Jh Garcia, Grissom & Riemer

Yes. With KMarte at 2B, we can handle a .785 low power DH. We can handle the drop from Bregman to mayer/Romy at 3B. The gain at 1B with Contreras, who has some power, should even things out enough that hoping for improvement from our younger players is a hope and not an essential need.

Sale also missed the ends of 2024 and 2025 with ATL, too. Still, Grissom was a total bust.

Yes, but the point was we have better depth than almost every other team, AND our top 3 match up pretty well with almost every other team. Out top 3 seem pretty reliable, when compared to TOR and NYY, but yes, anything can happen. Last year, we lost #2 Houck, and arguably our #4 Crawford & #5 Sandoval for just about the full season. Later, we lost Dobbins and in the playoffs we lost just about everyone not named Crochet.

DHam needs to get on base more than 28-30% for his speed to make a big difference. In 550 career PAs, he has 41 BBs and 73 singles. He gets to 1B in 21 % of his PAs (114/550.)

Agreed, and if you add Romy as a platoon with DHam with Eaton maybe platooning with Mayer at 3B, the differential is even less. I'm thinking Suarez or Okamoto are probably the most realistic higher impact additions.

I'm not happy, but we also have Contreras. BTW, fWAR 2024-2025: #10. Sonny Gray 7.1 (Crochet is #3.) Gray is #4 from '23-'25. That's no joke. ________________ BTW, 2023-2025 OPS .817 Contreras (#32) 1000+ PAs. Only 26 batters have more PAs and a higher OPS than Willson 38 Duran .810 42 Tatis .803 46. Bregman .796 59. Bichette .778

Who has the highest odds of being on the IL for most of 2026 of in OCT '26? 1.Bieber 2. Rodon 3. Cole