moonslav59

Looking at BTV and the Phillies, and nothing against DD. I love the guy. They have an interesting mix of values. They have 9 contracts "underwater," including some high value players with higher contracts. Only Castellanos has zero skill value, but still 9 guys! On the plus side, they have a surprisingly few very high value players beyond Christopher Sanchez at a whopping 198! Their next two highest players are in the minors: Painter at 52 & Aidan Miller at 49. Big drop off.... Only 5 guys between 9 and 28: 28 Bryson Scott (2 yrs left) 26 Jesus Lazardo (1 yr left) 19 B Marsh (2) 17 Jh Duran (2) 17 Justin Crawford (minors) 15 Orion Kerkering Conversely, the Sox have 5 guys underwater (Story, Masa, Hicks, Chapman, Contreras & Houck) The Sox have 25 players at 8 or more. (26, if you count Rivas at 7.5) Their top 10 are all in MLB: Crochet, Anthony, Mayer, Duran, Rafaela, Tolle, Abreu, Narvaez, Bello & Early.) Arias is at 22 and Witherspoon 18 with Soto at 13. Crawford, Campbell & Casas are between 18-22. Romy, Gray, Slaten, Whitlock 10-12 w Oviedo at 8. Lots of those plus value players are Brez guys. For just 2 seasons- not bad.

I just can't see how Arenado could ever be viewed as a plus as anything more than a back-up corner IF'er and late inning D guy.

The difference as a DH, yes, but his value as an OF'er is much higher. Duran has the 4th highest fWAR among OF'ers since 2024. (Abreu and Rafaela are top 24.) The guy have high value.

After all winter deals are done, yes.

Yes, my bad, Ted. Sorry.

He was such a "raw hitter" when he broke into the bigs. The thing is, he seems to be able to hit bad pitches just well enough to get by, but surely some discipline helped and may/should continue to do so.

I'm not a big Vientos fan, but I might give Crawford & DHam for Vientos & $2M. (BTV approves) I'm not sure further depleting our rotation depth is a good idea, and we'd still have an extra OF'er and DH. I doubt the NYM take Casas and DHam for Vientos, but BTV approves. This way, we'd give Masa a little more room at DH, but Duran would still be our DH- not Masa.

How high should they be valued? When I look at BTV values assigned, they look about right, and I'm trying to be impartial. 306 Julio Rodriguez (569-263) 110 Carroll (210 skill-100 pay) 94 Soto (277-183) 85 Tatis (380! -190) 61 Anthony (220 Skill-166 pay) 46 Duran (83) 36 Rafaela (94 due to more years of control) 27 Abreu (56) 19 Campbell (112 due to more years) NYY: 25 Judge (due to mega contract his skill is valued at 265), 25 Chisholm (26 skill), 24 Dominguez (48) Hell, JRod is valued more highly than the top 7 Sox players combined!

Maybe Brez had and still has littleman syndrome.

That is rather telling, but almost every team can easily afford to spend $30-50M more a year and still make a nice profit, so I don't see this as being the central argument for JH being "cheap." From the time I became a Sox fan in the early 70's until JH came to won, we never came close to meeting the Yanks in spending. To me, the reason the curse was broken and 3 more rings followed was the nice roster Dan D handed Theo and the spending increase by JH. That is a context being missed by harping on our 23rd ranking. I'm pissed at JH, too. I'm not defending him, but the guy has not been "cheap-" just maybe cheaper or more selective in his spending habits, as Kimmi points out over and over.

He'd need a resurrection not a rejuvination. OPS by age: .891 at 31 .774 at 32 .719 at 33 .666 at 34 He turns 35 in April. If he was on our roster, I'd want him as a bench guy and late inning defensive replacement player, but then again, I don't even want Hicks on the 26, and only conditionally want Yoshida on the 26 based on Casas being on the IL or struggling and no OF'er traded, this winter. If his AAV keeps us from adding someone else, no thanks.

I'd like to keep Rafaela and prefer trading your guy, Duran. I'm pretty certain other GMs see Rafaela like we do and not like Drewski. They value him highly and would give up a lot to get him, plus, you might get your way and see Duran in CF. I know you prefer we trade Abreu, but you stand alone in your belief he's not a great defensive RF'er, and I might add that Duran IS a great defensive CF'er. The context for my suggesting we might trade Rafaela over Duran or Abreu is if we DO NOT add a big bat at 3B/2B. If that happens, we need the offense from the 3 OF'ers not named Rafaela.

Good points. I see it this way. Lodolo is ___ better than Sandoval/Oviedo/Crawford/Harrison (our likely 4/5 SP'er.) He may even be better than Bello. (I think he is.) Measure the difference and compare to this: Duran starting in the OF, instead of Anthony, Abreu or Rafaela. Or Duran's ____ value as a DH. .774 was Duran's 2025 OPS and .780 career OPS. (His speed adds enormous value on offense.) .762 is Yoshida's career OPS. To me Lodolo's improvement over who he replaces is greater than Duran's improvement over Yoshida/Casas/Romy/Campbell at DH. In a vacuum, I'd prefer Duran.

Well said. I'd like to add this: While a .732 OPS is not great, it's pretty damn good for a catcher (Narvaez,) and since he's a rookie, maybe he can improve on that. Only 6 catchers had more PAs and a higher OPS than Narvaez. Out of 37 catchers with 250+ PAs, Narvaez ranked 15th in OPS and 10th in Catcher HRs at 15. I have no idea how well he will hit going forward, but as of now, I do not see him as a liability on offense. I also have some faith in Ceddanne's continued improvement. 2023+2024 VS 2025 for Rafaela: 2.9 BB%> 4.8% 27.1 K%>19.9% .275 OBP> .295 OBP ,389 SLG>.414 SLG His future is highly unpredictable.

Pretty sure this is how Brez sees it, too.

Well said. I hope we end up at a projected98 wins.

I'm agreeing with you (and notin.) Clearly teams use the DH to rotate players in at varying degrees. Some as a way to rest a player but keep his bat in the line-up. Some to find the best bat match-up with a pitcher while trying to field the best defensive line-up. Some as mostly a platoon set-up. Some due to injuries. Some combining these ideas with others.

Who is arguing they are highly valued? I thought the talk was about calling them FT or not. I doubt any team would sign the FA Masa to play LF, unless in an emergency or at best as the 4th or 5th OF'er. They'd sign him to DH or platoon DH and be OF depth. IMO, he'd get between $3-6M x 2 years. BTV has his value at -$26M, which is $10M less than the $36M he is owed. They pretty much say he's worth $5M x 2. Should we trade him to save $5M x 2? It looks like we are $4-5M under the tax line. This trade would bring us to $9-10M under. That could allow us to sign a player $5M better. If the plan is to go $10M over the first line, it could be the difference between $15M or $20M AAV. According to MLBTR, that the difference between these guys: $26M Bregman or $25M F Valdez & Imai (pushing close to line 2) or $23M Ra Suarez $21M Suarez x 3 vs $16M Okamoto $16M x 2 Giolito $14M Bassitt x 2 $13M x 2 N martinez

As with DHs and other positions, even who we view as the FT catcher can change due to injury or performance. We started 2025 with Wong as our "FT Catcher," but Narvaez quickly won the job, once Wong got hurt and struggled mightily at the plate.

Agreed. Size and weight are not disqualifying, but neither are really small guys, either. Only Moran and Gray are "smaller." I don't think wanting to trade Bello, if they really do, is because of his size. His lower K rate might be the main reason. 17.7% ranks 81st out of 100 SP'ers with 120+ IP.. He's not really helped by his pedestrian 8.5% BB%, which ranks 68th out of 100. He was 87th in K%-BB%.

Positions like SS, Catcher and CF are too important on defense to use those guys as part of a DH rotation, so yes, no team uses the DH as a complete rotation for rest plan. I do think many teams use it to rotate 3-4 players who either have good L-R splits or are not needed for defense due to their lack of skills on D or because there is a better defender available. I do think many teams go into a season with the plan for one guy to DH 130-140+ games a year. We may be arguing over what number constitutes a FT'er as the Catcher slot highlights that context. Is it over half the teams? I'm not sure. I do know plans change over the season, and the DH slot is often used as a catch-all for injured players to go to, if they can't play defense well enough. The Springer example is an example of that. A signing or trade can also change the plan, as with the Sox moving from the Masa FT DH plan to a Devers FT DH plan, then to a mix plan, once Casas got hurt. They even kept Masas on the IL, because he could not play LF well enough, because Devers took his FT role.

Position by position: players with 121 or more starts: 6 at DH (one was at 120. The mean was 80- by far the lowest) 8 in RF (mean 95) 9 at 3B (mean 102) 10 at 2B (mean 91, #16 was just 85!) 10 in LF (mean 97) 10 in CF (but 15 at 117+/ mean 117) 12 at 1B (mean 113) 20 at SS (23 had 102+. The mean was 130) Highest means: 130 SS 117 CF 113 1B 102 3B Note: 40 players started 120+ games at any OF position. The mean or 90 is 45, so the mean for OF was 114 games.

Yes, 75% of 162 is 121. Only two catchers started more than 119 games in 2025. 8 started more than 106 (65% of 162) The mean was 97 or 60% of all games.

The idea of Yoshida as the platoon DH seems like such a waste of a roster slot, although his career .650 OPS vs LHPs supports the idea. To me, what further complicates the Masa on the 26 idea is Casas. With Contreras at 1B and much better on defense than Casas at 1B, Casas could, and should if healthy, be the FT DH for the Sox. Career splits: v R/v L .796/.814 Casas (He's better vs both and hits LHPs better than RHPs.) .795/,650 Yoshida .616/.872 Romy (could platoon with Mayer or DHam) Note: Romy was .718/.978 in 2025. This could be an outlier season, but if not, he could be viewed as a FT'er or at worst a player that must start vs all LHPs. Campbell may also be someone who profiles best as a DH. Time will tell on him. (.658/.675 in 2025.)

Before Bregman was signed, Yoshida was the planned FT DH. After Bregman was signed, they actually told Devers he was going to be the FT DH. That was one reason he got pissed, when later, Casas got hurt and they wanted him at 1B.