moonslav59

You can't just throw out projected fWAR, or for that matter 2024 and 2025's fWAR. You acknowledged before not knowing Rodon was going to start the year on the IL, and now you are b ack to expecting greatness from him. Cole and Bieber are question marks, too. Crochet >>> Fried & Cease (all seem durable and reliable. Fried turns 32 soon) Gray => Cole & Gausman (Most likely to be on the IL? Cole) Bello <= Rodon & Bieber but I have more faith in Bello not on the IL in OCT than these two. I'll take Schlitter and the Jays' 4 & 5s over BOS, but in the playoffs, they don't matter as much. I just don't see the top 3 the way you do. If all are 100% and on their game, maybe. Let's assume all these pitchers match their highest fWAR in the last 4 years: 3.0+ fWAR seasons 6.2 Rodon '22, 3.2 '25 5.7 Crochet '25, 4.6 '24 5.5 Gausman '22, 5.3 '23, 4.1 '25, 3.0 '25 5.4 Gray '23, 3.8 '24, 3.6 '25 5.3 Cole '23, 3.4 '22 4.9 Fried '22, 4.8 '25, 3.4 '24 4.8 Bieber '22 4.7 Cease '24, 4.4 '22, 3.6 '23 3.7 Sandoval '22 _______________ Now, look at 3.6+ seasons last 3 seasons: 6.2 Rodon '22 5.7 Crochet '25, 4.6 '24 5.5 Gausman '22, 5.3 '23, 4.1 '25 5.4 Gray '23, 3.8 '24, 3.6 '25 5.3 Cole '23 4.9 Fried '22, 4.8 '25 4.8 Bieber '22 4.7 Cease '24, 4.4 '22, 3.6 '23 3.7 Sandoval '22 The Sox have 2 two-time pitchers, TOR 2 and NYY 1. All have 3 pitchers on the list. The Sox have 2 of the top 3 single season events. _____________________ Now, last 3 seasons only: 5.7 Crochet '25, 4.6 '24 5.4 Gray '23, 3.8 '24, 3.6 '25 5.3 Gausman '23, 4.1 '25 5.3 Cole '23 4.8 Fried '25 4.7 Cease '24 The Sox have the top 2 and 2 two timers. ___________________ Last 2 years: 5.7 Crochet '25, 4.6 '24 4.8 Fried '25 4.7 Cease '24 4.1 Gausman '25 3.8 Gray '24, 3.6 '25 BOS & TOR both have 2 of the top 5, but BOS has the only pitchers with 2 two timers. I'm not sure why you project two NYY and two TOR pitchers will do better than Crochet and Gray. Sure, they can, but Cole hasn't been great is a while. BOS: One old Yes, Gray is 36 but has aged well. (5.4>3.8>3.6) Crochet is just entering prime: 4.6 >5.7 and age 26. Bello is entering prime, too: 1.6>2.0>1.9 (3 yr total beats Rodon's) ____________________ TOR: One old and one not good for 3 years Gausman will be 35 and is also aging well: 5.3>3.0>4,1 (very similar to Gray.) Cease is 30: 3.6>4.7>3.4 could bounce back at 30. Bieber turns 31 midseason and hasn't had a great year since 2022 (4.8) His 3 year trend: 2.1>0.8>0.3. Hell, Buehler did better than that! _____________________ NYY: all 32 or older Fried is 32 and is trending well: 1.9>3.4>4.8 Rodon is 33: -0.1>1.6>3.2 (will be on IL) Cole is 35 and is coming off a major injury: 5.3>1.8> n/a '25 ________________________ Nobody has a slam dunk better 3, but I think BOS's matches up pretty well.

$18M is a lot for an almost total unknown. 5-11 and 155 is not the Brez prototype pitcher, anyway.

Of course nothing is certain. Some liked Buehler way better than adds like Kluber, Richards and Wacha, and he cost way more than they did. Getting better on paper is just that: paper, but it's what GMs have to do or try to do. I have to say Gray + Oviedo looks way more likely to have a good to great 2026 seasons than Buehler + Sandoval, Gio + Fitts, Wacha+Hill, Paxton + Kluber and Richards + Perez did. What ends up happening is another story. I'd have preferred Alonso to Contreras, and my hope was that the money saved would allow us to improve somewhere else, instead. (The Gray money equals Buehler, so that slot doesn't count, to me.) It comes down to how we address 3B or 2B. I agree, bringing Bregman back looks like a sideways move that could go worse or less likely- better than 2025. He would be an improvement over DHam, for sure, unless he gets hurt. I think we should expect... C: slight improvement as Narvaez may step back a little on O but improve on D and Wong cant do much worse on O. (Contreras adds some very nice depth) 1B- major improvement. 2B- looks the same for now (assuming Mayer at 3B) SS- might expect regression, here. 3B- looks like a major regression from Breggie to Mayer LF- same CF- same RF- same DH- worse, as we lost Devers & Ref. SP- slightly better RP- worse w/o Bernardino, Wilson, Murphy and others. As of now, we are not "better."

I doubt STL takes Crawford and DHam for Donovan. I think Crawford is over-rated. They might take Crawford, Sandlin & DHam, but that's three 40 man players for one. We'd likely have to give up a prospect instead of Sandlin (Mullins?) or DHam (Cespedes, Bleis or Castro?)

I'm not as high on Sonny Gray as many are, and I do think fangraphs projects him too highly, but I think you are undervaluing him and overvaluing NYY and TOR. Cole is a huge question mark and so are Cease, Bieber, Ponce and Yesavage. Rodon starts the season on the IL. How has that worked for Sox pitchers? Why are Yankee pitchers different? Fangraphs ranks the Yankee SP'ers at #14, and they notoriously overvalue Yankee players. The Jays beat the NYY at all 5 SP slots in projected fWAR! #1: 3.8 Cease (187 IP) 3.6 Fried (189 IP) #2: 2.8 Gausman (185) 2.2 Rodon (162) #3: 2.5 Bieber (153) 1.9 Cole (131) #4 2.2 Ponce (139) 1.8 Schlitter (148) #5: 2.1 Yesavage (137) 1.5 Warren (121) Sox: 5.7 Crochet blows TOR and NYY away by about 2 each! 3.9 Gray- take 1 away and he still beats TOR and NYY! 2.0 Bello is 0.5 below Bieber but beats Cole. 1.6 Sandoval & 1.1 Crawford are the worst of the 3, but Early, Tolle and Harrison total 2.2 in just 144 IP. TOR's #6-8 total 1.5 in 129 IP NYY's #6-8 toal 1.6 in 152 IP. Neither is better at the top or with depth. Top 3: 11.6 BOS, 9.1 TOR, 7.7 NYY (way behind) #4-6: 5.3 TOR, 4.3 NYY, 3.7 BOS (yes, way behind, but look below) #7-9: 1.8 BOS in 125 IP, 0.8 NYY in 63 IP, 0.6 TOR in 46 IP

Going by fangraphs projections for the top 10 rotations in MLB by fWAR projections: BOS: 5.7, 3.9, 2.0, 1.6, 1.1 (1.0, 0.7, 0.6, 0.5) 2nd Highest fWAR 1-3 at 11.6 and a decent 4-8 at 5.4) LAD: 3.6, 3.3, 3.1, 2.6, 1.7 (1.7, 0.4, 0.3) Top 3: 10.0 & 5.7 for #4-8. They are one of the 2-3 that rival the Sox in TOTRSP and depth. DET: 5.9, 2.6, 2.3, 2.1, 1.2 (1.1, 0.5, 0.3) Top 3: 10.8 is closest to the Sox and 5.3 for 4-8, which beats the Sox depth. They are the second team that rivals the Sox in top 3 AND 4-8 starters. PHI: 4.8, 3.5, 3.0, 3.0, 0.8 (0.5, 0.1, 0.1) Only team with 4 over 3.0, but close to the worst 5-8 SP'ers) They don't have both. Nope. TOR: 3.8, 2.8, 2.5, 2.2, 2.1 (1.0, 0.4, 0.1) Top 3: 9.1 & 5.8. They have better 4-6 SP'ers and 4-8 but not 1-3. Nope. PIT: 5.8, 2.3, 1.9, 1.6, 1.5 (1.2, 0.6, 0.1) Nope. ATL: 4.2, 3.0, 2.7, 1..6, 1.3 (0.8, 0.5, 0.3) Nope. CIN: 3.6, 2.6, 2.4, 2.3, 2.0 (0.7, 0.2, 0,2) Nice having all 5 over 2.0 but worse in top 3 and way worse in depth. Nope. SEA: 3.3, 3.2, 3.2, 2.4, 1.4 (0.2, 0.2, 0.1) Nice balanced top 3 and a decent 3-4 (Top 3 =13.5 is tops, but their 5-8 is horrific. 4-8=4.3 is kinda close to BOS, so one could call them the 3rd team that rivals the Sox, but I would not call 0.2, 0.2 and 0.1 decent depth. NOPE KCR: 4.2, 2.4, 2.2, 1.9, 1.7 (0.6, 0.3, 0.3) Nope I'm sticking to my position that only 2-3 team rival our top of rotation value AND our SP'er depth. 5.7 Crochet 3rd best in MLB 3.9 Gray #9 in MLB 2.0 Bello #72 (if a #3 is 60-90, he's a mid level #3.) 1.6 Sandoval (107 IP) #101 (ranks as a mid #4, if 90-120) 1.1 Crawford (90 IP) #149 (ranks as a bottom #5 type) He'd be at 2.2 with 180 IP. 1.0 Early (55 IP) #160 but look at the IP projection. He'd be a 3.0 with 165 IP. 0.7 Tolle (45 IP) He'd be at 2.8 with 180 IP 0.6 Oviedo (36 IP) He'd be at 3.0 with 1180 IP 0,5 Harrison (44 IP) He'd be at 2.0 at 164 IP I'm not sure how adjusting all our SP'ers to 180 IP would look, but I'm guessing our 6-7-8-9 are better than almost everyone else.

God, I hope not. We'd just be undoing a skeptical improvement to thh rotation, this winter. If we followed it up with Duran for Lodolo, maybe. Crawford and DHam for Donovan?

That's what keeps me feeling pessimistic. Plus, I'm not big on Bichette for even 5 or 6 years. More likely, if we go for a FA, it will be Suarez or Okamoto on a 2 or 3 year deal.

Probably not, but we may have offered something similar or maybe even slightly more.

This touches on the point I made before winter moves began. Bloom & Brez did a pretty good job building up the foundation with depth from the DSL to the 40 and 26 man roster. The pattern had been and kinda had to be to spread the spending in a more thin way, to fill the many gaps we had. By this winter, we only had 2-3 major needs and 1-2 minor ones. We could and should focus our resources on just a few high quality moves rather than 4-6 near moderate to moderate ones. 2B or 3B (maybe both) 1B #1 or solid 2 SP (maybe two solid 3's or low 2's) Minor needs: LH'd RP (but converted SP'ers could fill this need) Back-up Catcher (minor league C depth) ________________________ Contreras filled the 1B need well enough, to me. S Gray has been the focus of a lot of debate on him being a 2 or 3, but to me, he was about the minimum SP addition needed, and Oviedo made the total SP additions barely acceptable. (Losing Dobbins, Fitts and to a lesser extent Criswell & Perales took a chunk out of that gain.) The losses of Wilson, Bernardino, Murphy, Matz and others has elevated the need for pen help, but again, maybe our SP depth can help out some. (Note: I said the same thing last winter, and we ended up not having enough SP'ers to make it through the season.) That leaves 2B and or 3B and maybe a solid LH'd RP'er. A solid #2 SP'er addition could take the slack off these other needs, but to me, we need one major addition (KMarte, Breggie, Bichette or maybe Suarez) or two semi-major additions (Suarez, Donovan or maybe a Vientos type PLUS a solid P like Mitch Kelly, Alanatara, Gore, Bubic, Singer or a really good RP'er.) We aren't in a horrible situation if we just need 1-2 significant adds.

Astros get the Imai prize! $18M x 3 years. He's just 27 years old.

To BOS: Paredes & Mitch Kelly To; HOU: Kutter Crawford (If they want or need, and since they are losing 2 infielders, give them DHam) To PIT: Brice Matthews (If HOU does not want or need DHam add him to PIT) This is more complicated: To BOS: Paredes, Keller, B King, B Sousa, W Janek To HOU: K Campbell, K Crawford, DHam & Wong To PIT: B Matthews

While the idea of Mayer at 3B (maybe Eaton or Romy as a partial or full platoon) and DHam/Romy at 2B might work out okay, is it really what we feel good about? It's a big step down from Bregman at 3B and a mix at 2B. The Contreras addition does not offset the Bregman loss. Then, what offsets the Devers, Ref and Lowe losses? That's bout 660 PAs. We can hope and pray another 330 PAs from Anthony makes up for half that loss, but now we're at the point where we need to hope for zero injuries or some major step up by someone like Abreu, Rafaela, Mayer or maybe Duran having a career year better than 2024. Some sort of patch fix like Vientos or Donovan would help, but I seriously doubt either would be enough, and neither is worth trading one of our OF'er for. To me, Paredes, Suarez or Okamoto are about the level we need to begin to have hope we will be at least as good as 2025 on paper- maybe better with just a little luck. KMarte, Bregman or Bichette might get us to a surer plus over 2025, with nothing else added: no LH'd RP'er. No #2 SP'er. No second addition to the infield. I keep reading all this talk about one more big and bold trade or signing is in the works, and maybe it is. I'd like to see two, but that would mean JH is spending more than I think he will and or we'd be trading away more of the future than I'm comfortable doing.

Had we upped our Bogey offer to $220M/8 or $240M/9 and landed him, would be happy with the deal, right now? How about $200M/7? $180M/6? $170M/5?

So, your assumption is no news means bad news.

It's hard to know, but I doubt it's the 60 day IL. There has been very little info on Crawford, Sandoval and Casas.

Think context. How many teams have 3 quality SP'ers? Maybe 8-12? How many of those 8-12 have 6 decent depth pitchers? 0-2? Yes, quality and depth within the context of what other teams have. Name 3 other teams that have the quality and depth. Maybe 8-12 have one or the other- maybe. I bet no more than 3 teams, including us, have both.

If Campbell could give us an .800 OPS, his defense at 2B might not matter much, It would allow us to trade an OF'er and Crawford for a solid #2 SP.

Campbell won't improve at 2B, if he never plays there.

Maybe we are due to get one right. Even Buehler was a similar type gamble. Richards, Kluber, Paxton twice, Wacha, Hill, Hendriks, Sandoval & Buehler. I'm probably forgetting someone.

Great idea! Masa & Hicks for Trout and $80M. BTV calls it a "moderate overpay" by the Sox. ($100M cash would make it even.)

He may end up moving up to the 2 slot in the rotation, or be DFA'd by the trade deadline. Patrick Sandoval 2021-2022: 3.17 ERA (132 ERA+) 3.44 FIP and 2.6 K:BB 2023-2024: 4.45 ERA (98 ERA+) 4.07 FIP and 1.9 K:BB

I'm convinced KC should not play 2B, again, unless he shows improvement in AAA first. Since he is apparently being used in LF, that won't happen anytime soon. His "natural position" might be DH. The Sox often "hide" a bad defender in LF, but we are loaded in the OF, so IMO, we should trade one.

If Romy is not needed as a Mayer platoon, the comp being made should be DHam/Romy vs FT Donovan. (I guess we could platoon Donovan and Romy, too.) I'd prefer Donovan, but I agree with those making the case that the gain made might not balance out what we give up to get him.

Well said, and if you believe Campbell is a major part of our plans for 2026 and beyond, he have 5 OF'er and 4 DHs (counting KC twice.) OF: Anthony, Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Campbell (Masa) DH: Masa, Casas, Campbell, Romy (Duran) I would not trade a 4/5 slot pitcher, unless we upgrade to a 2/3 SP'er. I like our rotation depth, but we've already reduced it enough.