moonslav59

So, is it JH or Brez, because you sure made it sound like Brez had the capability to top all 3 aspects of the Cub offer, and that is why he "botched it." I'm not claiming he didn't botch it. I'm claiming that not knowing what the limits put on him were, I'm holding back assigning blame for coming up short. More importantly to me, I'd rather have Ranger Suarez even at the Bregman offer level, so I'm not losing sleep over losing Bregman. I am losing sleep over the big hole we have in the infield, while the two logjam we have on the roster remain a tangled overabundance of talent that will force some to be on the bench or misused off position. If you you were to find out, and by you I mean everybody that thinks it was Brez who let Breggie get away, that the NTC was non negotiable, the differed money was need for tax purposes and was not negotiable and or the dollar amount offered was the highest amount he was permitted to go, would you still blame Brez for it? These are not some half-baked constructions on my behalf. These were the all accounts issues that led to the Cubs winning the negotiations. Yes, it sucks watching us lose every one of these things, but that anger does not change facts, and we don't know all the facts.

Yes, that was my point. Sure, some people questioned trading for an injured player, but I doubt anyone hated the deal.

I get that point. Masa might hit .800. Even .765 might beat Suarez.

I feel the same way, but my question remains unanswered. I feel like the anger is causing us to get mad at someone, and the GM is always the scapegoat. IMO, we should have signed Alonso, but the Breggie leadership thing had real value. To me, Breggie was not an improvement, and he's getting older, but he sure is better than DHam at 2B.

Is it possible they both wanted him to stay, and the offer was the best they could do? The part that makes me think it's possible is that there were 3 areas where maybe just MAYBE one limit placed on Brez might have been enough to keep the deal from happening. The money The NTC The deferred money (or AAV)

I'm not even sure I like the idea. I was just looking for a way to not get one big bat but to get two and make em fit, while affording it. It got complicated.

If you can't even say, if that was the highest he could go, or think it's possible he could never offer a NTC, then you and I have different criteria for making up our minds and placing what sounds like unconditional blame on someone.

I can see JH giving Brez some flex or maybe a pretty set budget, especially AAV, and Brez can move around the pieces to make it work, as in he could have signed Breggie had he not paid so much for Gray or Contreras, but I can certainly see JH drawing the line at the third tier, and the Breggie deal, with no deferrals puts us dangerously close to that "limit." My whole position is basically having no position, because we just don't know. Even if the whole "all accounts" breakdown of how that talks went down is 100% true, nto knowing what the budget limit was, who demanded a contract without a NTC and how much the deferrals were a JH demand or a Brez preference. I can see that whole deferral thing as being all about the AAV and the tax budget, and that is a hint, to me, that Brez has some sort of tax budget firm limit. I could be wrong, but I'm not pretending it is a fact, so I just keep saying, we don't really know enough to think Breggie is not hear because of how Brez handled the talks. He may have been a 100% buffoon but still never had a chance at getting a signature. Can you agree that is at least possible? To totally discount any chance of this is reckless, IMO.

I think Donovan should be about 22-26. Casas has enormous upside, but I think 7 might be too high. Crawford has a lot of questions to answer but seems about right. DHam was at 1 a couple weeks ago and now is at 4. I'd do that trade, too, but only because we just added Ranger and Crawford might be pushed to the pen. I'd prefer other options to Donovan, especially ones with 3+ years of control. I'd prefer a RHB, too. He'd be fine, though, although our power need would still be our biggest wish.

I'm pretty sure multiple studies show OBP is a very predictive stat. It's worth more than SLG and/or ISO.

Sandoval was the only guy on that list that has not been good since 2022. That cuts down on his trade value (see #2 on my major valuation criterias.)

Again, that plan involved Masa going to the Mets to offset the Duran advantage over Baty, The DH job would go to Suarez.

It's hard to know how much other teams value players like Harrison, Casas and Romero. I have to think Casas would be "selling low," but who knows. BTV has Donovan at 31. They have Casas at 7, Harrison at 5 & Romero at 4. That comes to half his value for 2 years of control. BTV accepts Crawford 20, Casas 7 and DHam 4.

Yes. There are many ways to view a SP'er, but two major ways are: 1) What is your potential (and what have you shown you can do over an extended period of time, and if it's in the minors add speculative potential) 2) What have you done for me, lately- at times, we can even think you are only as good as your last start (or two.) If you look at our SP'ers one-by-one, number 1's view looks rather astounding, by taking the best periods of time for each guy or read the scouting reports on guys like Tolle & Early. Crochet: looks great on #1 and #2. He's a top 4-5 SP'er in MLB, right now. No stats are needed to make that claim. Suarez: has had a very nice recent 2 year stretch, so he checks box 1 & 2. His 2 year ERA is 3.33 (129 ERA+) and a supporting FIP of 3.29. That's close to ace or #1 territory. Sonny Gray may not look great with #2, but he has been damn good very recently, despite his age. From '22 to '23 he had a 2.90 ERA (144 ERA+) and a 3.05 FIP, That is #1 territory, but it was 2-3 years ago. His 3.6 fWAR, last year gives hope he can go one more year. Houck could be ignored, since he's not in the 2026 mix, but it needs to be pointed out that he was our ace 2 years ago and started 2025 as our clear #3. He went almost 180 IP in '24 with a 3.12 ERA (133 ERA+) and 3.32 FIP. That's damn good! Crawford looked real good in 2023: 4.04 (113) with a decent 3.83 FIP. His 1.11 WHIP was very nice, that year. Sandoval was damn good before his injury. In 2022 his ERA was 2.91 (138) with a 3.09 FIP. He was pretty good in 2021, too. Bello had his best ERA (3.35) and ERA+ (123) last year, but the 4.19 FIP in both 2024 and 2025 hint that maybe he's not all that great, but as a #4/5 SP'er, he's more than capable. Harrison & Oviedo are mostly on the speculative side or hope. Tolle & Early have enormous hope.

Indeed, and our 2024 ace will be on the 60 day IL all of 2026. Just imagine!

It makes total sense if they believe there was no bigger offer, and again, if thinking it was a bluff and it wasn't is a "botch," then I'm not sure I'd use that word in that context. I agree, the NTC is meaningless if we were never going to step up our offer. (We don't know if it was JH's limit or Brez's refusal to go higher on that aspect.)

One reason I included Masa was because the Mets and money make it more possible, even though highly unlikely. I still think the most likely (not my first choice) is Donovan. Second might be Paredes, but I do wonder what the hold up is. It could be the Sox are waiting to see how low Suarez will cost before saying yes to a Paredes deal. Baty and Shaw are names mentioned. Don't hear much about Hoerner, anymore. Chisholm is reportedly being shopped. I've mentioned Torres, but he is not being shopped. One year guys don't excite me. Who else? Stott? Vientos has some power but is not good at 3B D and looks like yet another DH or 1Bman. I'm not sure how highly COL values Tovar, but he might be a target not talked about much. I'm not up on all the fine young players in the bigs, now, but Kearschall would be nice. Anyone else?

He's horrible on D at 3B and hasn't shown much power since 2018. Nope. That spin would not work with him. Vientos, maybe.

Are you assuming the refusal to give a NTC is all on Brez? If I had to guess, it's not on him. I have no idea if the money aspect of the trade was the very highest Brez was allowed to go or Brez wanted to go, assuming he was allowed to go higher. That's the part "all accounts" is not sure about. Without all those facts, assigning blame is subjective and opinionated. Even with all the facts, there is still a subjective component of assigning blame porportionally. To me... If Breg never would sign w/o a NTC, and Brez could never give one, it's not on Brez. If Breg would never sign w so much deferred money, and Brez needed to defer that money to stay under a max AAV number, it's not on Brez. If the number Brez offered was the most he was allowed to offer, it's not on Brez. If Brez got Breggie upset with his antics, and that was the reason, Breggie said no, and it wasn't about $, NTC or deferments, then it's on Brez. There is room for shared blame, too. There is room to say Brez botched it, but was never going to sign Brez unde rthe limits placed on him, too.

When we traded Aldo Ramirez for him?

Id do that trade, too, but we'd still need another trade. It would make more sense to trade an Of'er and/or a pitcher for him- maybe involving a third team.

The whole context was dumping Masa and Hicks, so we could afford two bats not one. No Masa= opening at DH. If you don't think ESuarez > Masa, you have a point. I think we need a RH'd power bat, so Suarez>Masa. We have enough LHBs.

Agreed, and that's why the offered that deal, last winter. Same with the offer they gave a week ago. They'd have been fine if he said yes. This wasn't a faux Soto offer. They went as high as the were prepared to go, IMO, It wasn't enough. I don't think they bungled that, but they might have bungled how they handled the talks or "misread the room" as one brilliant poster often says.

BINGO! Breggie also filled a bigger current need.

No way JH allows Breggie and Suarez to be signed. It was either or, hence the word "pivot" fits within that context.