moonslav59

Doesn't how well or poorly he does going forward have a role in the final grade of that choice?

That happens, today and tomorrow, right? Then, the WSox have 72 hours to decide to keep him or let him go to a team who said they wanted him, as I understand it. He may still end up on our 40- or not.

LOL. Gotta love that 12.17 FIP and 6.00 WHIP in 0.1 IP.

Agreed. Adding him to our 40 would have just given us more time to make a trade. I also wonder about how much we really value guts like Brasier, Ort, Mills, Dalbec, Duran and maybe even Murphy. If we really did/do not want to lose them by 40 man roster attrition, maybe we should have traded someone in the next higher tier for a non 40 man prospect to make roster room: Murphy or Walter and kept Ward or add Sheriff Refsnyder or Abreu (add Tapia) Crawford or Winckowski (Ward/Sheriff) Wong (add Alfaro), although it's good to have 3 catchers on the 40.

Longer team control, but your point is well-taken. I like Bleier more than Mills.

Alfaro staying means he is given a 40 man slot, right? Who gets traded or DFA'd? Or, will Mills be placed on the 60 day? Has a decision been made on Tapia?

Ward, this spring: 11.1 IP 3.18 ERA 15 K/ 7 BB & 6 hits (.158 BA Against) 1.15 WHIP

Maybe Ward would have trade value, right now vs an Ort DFA, or he'd be a nice minor league option after we traded Brasier, last December.

Yorke did get hurt.

YES! From 2 to maybe 10 years ago! Since Lester in 2005, Papelbon in 2006 and Buch in 2007, we've had very little to get excited about. The few we had were traded away (Masterson, Kelly, Espinoza, Kopech), got hurt (Groome & others), fizzled out (Bowden, Ranaudo, Owens, Johnson, DHern) or 2 or 3 of the above. If you want to count Masterson or Bard (2008-2009) or Barnes (2012-2013,) fine, but since then, we've only seen Houck and the Rule 5 guy, Whitlock, make an impact. One can say Whitlock was not a product of our farm, since he never pitched on the farm, except for rehabs. Whitlock, Houck and Bello have graduated from 2021-2022. That's the best we've seen in a very long time, but the 8 years prior to that were god-awful. Here is a list of those 8 years top ranked pitching prospects all together: (Highest ranking on soxprospects.com from 2013, when Barnes graduated to 2020, when Houck was promoted.) 1 ERod (acquired and not really a product of our farm- only pitched 85 IP in Sox minors before call-up)) 2 Owens 2 Espinoza (traded) 2 DHern 3 Webster (acquired) 5 Kopech (traded) 5 Ruby de la Rosa (acquired) 6 Ranaudo 6 Johnson 9 T Ball 9 Workman 9 T Lakins 10 Beeks (traded) 11 Drake Britton 13 Logan Allen (traded) One can argue, looking at the results of the list above, and not counting ERod, Webster & RDLR, our current pitching prospect list is pretty close to as good, than that whole 8 year period combined turned out to be. If we could count Bello, it would be even closer, IMO. (Bello) Mata Walter Perales Murphy Wikelman E R-C Drohan Kelly Fernandez Paez Guerrero, Uberstine, Denlinger, Dean, Rogers, J Encarnacion, Broadway, Bastardo, Olds, Dobbins, Shugart, Santos

This joke is getting old. I do agree: he needs to go. Maybe letting him go makes the TWard decision look even worse. Obviously, Alfaro and Tapia offer more to the 40 and maybe 26 than Ort does.

If Tapia is better on defense, in CF, than Duvall, and Duvall struggles, then it matters, but I'm not sure he is. I don't think Tapia is worse than Duran, Ref or Verdugo in CF. On offense, Duvall turns 35, this year, and it's hard to know if his .677 OPS, last year is a sign he is done, but the guy has had some fairly recent success: 2021: .281 33 113 (Led league in RBI) 2020-2021: .789 OPS (54 HRs and 146 RBI in 764 PAs) 2019-2021: .802 OPS (per 650 PAs: .236 46 120) Tapia was better on offense earlier in his career: .734 up to 2020 (892 PAs) .687 2021-2022 (966 PAs) Defense in CF: They look pretty close to even in CF... Tapia: +3 DRS in 439 innings (-4.4 UZR150) Duvall +4 DRS in 594 innings (+4.7 UZR/150) OF Duvall +58 DRA in 5906 innings (+5.0 UZR/150) Tapia -4 DRS/-2.5 UZR/150 in 3487 innings

We have 21 pitchers on the 40: Keepers: SP: Sale, Whitlock, Kluber, Pivetta, Paxton, Bello SP/RP: Houck, Crawford, Winckowski, Mata, Walter, Murphy RP: Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, JRod, Mills (to 60 day IL?) Nothing all that special: Brasier, Kelly, Bleier Bubble: Ort Maybe add? Sheriff 19 Everyday Players: McGuire Casas Arroyo, EValdez, D Hamilton Devers Kike, Mondesi (IL) Yoshida, Refsnyder Duvall, Rafaela Verdugo, Abreu Turner Nothing all that special: Wong Dalbec Duran Bubble: Chang Maybe add? Alfaro & Tapia

I'm not so sure Sheriff deserves to be added to the 40. i'm thinking Walter is just as good and has more long term upside.

This whole Ort fascination has to end. Cut this guy, NOW!

I'm not sure we replace a pitcher with a pitcher. Alfaro and Tapia seem like bigger needs. It might come down to who they think is the least likely to be claimed: Ort, Chang and _____ . Brasier still remains the enigma. I have to think these guys would be claimed: Dalbec Duran Kelly Murphy Hamilton EValdez Bleier Is there any team out there who might trade a non 40 man roster promising prospect for any of these guys?

Mine: 1. Mayer 2. Bleis 3. Rafaela 4. Mata 5. Romero 6. Anthony 7. Walter 8. Perales 9. Yorke 10. E R-C

Sox prospects.com's top dozen: 1. Mayer 2. Casas 3. Bleis 4. Rafaela 5. Yorke 6. Mata 7. Romero 8. Walter 9. Anthony 10. Perales 11. Paulino 12. Wikelman My top 10 after adding recent graduates (one year back) 1. Mayer 2. Casas 3. Bleis 4. Bello 5. Rafaela 6. Yorke 7. Mata 8. Romero 9. Walter 10. Anthony 11. Perales 12. Crawford/Paulino/Wikelman Go back 2 years: 1. Mayer 2. Whitlock 3. Casas 4. Bleis 5. Houck 6. Bleis 7. Rafaela 8. Yorke 9. Romero 10. Walter 11. Anthony 12. Perales 13. Crawford/Paulino/Wikelman It might also be interesting to see a rankings based on all players at 24 or younger or with 5+ years of team control and at 26 or younger. I'm sure other teams would have some massive talent added to their prospect list by doing this.

Starting the year with Alfaro as the back-up and Wong in AAA makes the most sense, in isolation, but who do we DFA to make room for Alfaro (and Tapia?)

Could Mills or Joely go on the 60 to create a slot? Could Ort's time finally be up? Could a rare late March trade be made? Some teams need a 1Bman (Dalbec) or might want Duran (to make room for Tapia, although our OF depth would not improve in numbers by swapping Tapia for Duran.) Could we trade Wong? I'd really like to see Alfaro and Tapia stick around.

A look at Bloom's prospects and how they were acquired: (Only players still in the system) Rule 5: Whitlock (Ranked 4th in 2021) Ort Draft: 1. Mayer 5. Yorke 7. Romero 9. Anthony 15. Jordan 18. Hickey 19. E Rodrigues-Cruz 20. Kavadas 21. Coffey 22. Drohan 25. Brannon 28. Paez 29. Guerrero 30. McDonough 34. Uberstine 36. Meidroth 47. N Dean 51. W Olds 53. D Rogers 55. H Dobbins 56. D McElveny IFA: 3. Bleis 28. Paez 32. F Encarnacion 45. Ravelo 49. Y Cespedes J Garcia, Polanco, F De Leon, F Arias, Y Ruiz Trade: Winckowski (Beni) was ranked 9th in '22 Wong (Betts) ranked 12th in '20 17. Valdez (Vaz) 24. Abreu (Vaz) 26. DHamilton (Renfroe) 33. Koss (Aybar) 35. Binelas (Renfroe) 38. RHern (Springs & Mazza) 41. Broadway (Diekman) 46. Denlinger (German who was traded for and ranked 25 in '22) 60. Santos (Chatham) MiLFA: 23. Kelly DD's Kids: Bello ranked 3rd in '22 Houck ranked 3rd in '18 Duran ranked 3rd in '21 Dalbec ranked 5th in '20 Crawford ranked 23rd in '22 2. Casas draft 4. Rafaela IFA 6. Mata IFA 8. Walter draft 10. Perales IFA 11. Paulino IFA 12. Wikelman IFA 13. Murphy draft 14. Lugo draft 16. Bonaci IFA 27. Fernandez draft Alcantara, Salazar, Jimenez, Scott, Bastardo, JEncarnacion, Castro, Mosquedo, ELopez

E Valdez with a homer, today. Kluber was not great, but has looked okay, this spring. Kelly gave us a good 2 IP.

To me, Houck can and should fill the Long Man role Whitlock has excelled in over the last 2 years. Expecting us to just stay even, at that slot may be pushing it, since Houck filled that role, at times, too. Maybe Crawford, Wink or a kid helps improve upon our past long men. Asking Schreiber to repeat 2022 may be impossible, but maybe just give us a decent 2023 with 60-75 IP. Jansen, Martin, Bleier and hopefully something useful from Joely & Mills, Crawford or Wink or a kid (Mata, Walter, Murphy) should easily be an improvement over 2022, but pen projections are the biggest crapshoot of all positions in MLB. We look better, on paper, despite the early injuries, and that's all we can hope for, at this point. Maybe my hopes for Kluber are too rosy, but I like his chances at improving on 2022, despite being a year older. Paxton is hard to have any hopes for, but the guy is not a bad pitcher, when healthy. Bello & Whitlock may be more important than Sale. Pivetta just needs to stay steady, but as I've pointed out, before, he has had pretty long in-season stretches looking like a solid #2 or #3, so maybe he can pull a Porcello and put together a 32 start stretch for the ages. 2021: 4.09 over first 17 GS (.717 OPSA) 4.10 FIP 2022: 3.72 over a 22 GS stretch (.675 OPSA) 3.61 FIP

Pitching projections (I am not counting MLB players slotted for rehab assignments on opening day:) AAA SP'ers: Bello will almost certainly get a promotion to MLB at some point. Mata should see ML action in '23. Walter should, too. Murphy might get a look- maybe in the pen. Gudino should not. (Santos on IL) AAA RP'ers Ort may see time Mosqueda may not Shugart, Dermody, Feltman- and others hopefully will not, unless they are doing well. AA SP: Drohan should move up when a AAA SP'er is promoted. Van Belle, Liu, Sharp and Olds do not impress me. RP: Denlinger is the unknown. Zeferjahn, Webb and Cellucci may move up to AAA. A+ SP: Wikelman & Uberstine (to AA?) Angel Bastardo and Juan Encarnacion (maybe?) Dobbins & Gambrell (Beni trade) are long shots RP: Guerrero is promising A- SP: Perales and E R-C could certainly move to A+ or even AA by season's end. Paez and Rogers might be promoted. RP: Hoppe & Sena (who knows?) Note: I am far from an expert on prospect evaluation. These are just my opinions.

Not unrealistic. Soxprospects.com projects this opening day AAA roster: C Alfaro 1B Palka 2B Valdez 3B Koss SS Hamilton LF Duran CF Rafaela RF Crook DH Fitzy Bench: C: CHamilton & RHern IF: Goodrum & Diaz OF: Allen, Wilson UT: Sogard AA (I can see Kavadas, Abreu, Yorke and Lugo moving up to AAA in 2023.) C: Scott, Marrero, Erro 1B: Kavadas 2B: Yorke 3B: Lugo SS: McDonough, Max Ferguson LF: Jimenez, Dearden CF: Sikes RF: Abreu, Rosier DH: Binelas A+ (I can see all of these first 5 names moving up a level or more in 2023.) C: Hickey 1B: Jordan 2B: Paulino 3B: Bonaci SS: Mayer LF: BGonzalez CF: E Lopez RF: Uguedo DH: Meidroth A- and FCL every day prospects to watch: C: McElveny & B Brannon 3B: Coffey & FEncarnacion SS Ravelo CF: Bleis RF: Anthony I doubt all these guys move up to AAA in 2023, but if they do, who on the AAA roster gets promoted to MLB, traded, DFA'd or demoted? Kavadas (Palka or CHam/RHern?) Abreu (Allen or Wilson?) Yorke (Diaz of Goodrum?) Lugo (Goodrum or Diaz?) Mayer (Koss?)