moonslav59

Okay. soxprospects lists Mondesi as on the 60 day. https://www.soxprospects.com/40man.htm

So, he is a suspect, too- along with Turner, Duvall...

Agreed, yet only Yoshida, from your list, is a Bloom acquired player.

The cost of Story makes the needle move further on 2022 vs anyone in 2021. I was pointing out numbers of dice rolls that worked vs did not work. Only Renfroe worked in 2021, unless you count deadline moves. Only Story and JBJ did NOT work in 2022. It was more the returning players that let us down in '22- NOT Bloom dice rolls.

Agreed. If we hang around, or miss out due to Sale being hurt or sucking, that may help him stay another year. If once healthy players all get hurt, that may be a factor, too. If guys like Paxton and Arroyo miss most of the year, Bloom is not let off the hook. He knew what he got. Scouts loved Yoshida. True, Bloom made the choice, but is it all on him?

One could argue more dice rolls worked better in 2022 vs 2021, at least the winter ones. (Kike was a 2020 addition) 2021 dice rolls: Renfroe, Richards, Perez, Ottavino, Andriese, Sawamura 2022 dice rolls: Wacha, Hill, Strahm, Story (JBJ trade) In season: 2021: Schwarber, Iggy, Shaw, Robles, Davis 2022: McGuire, Pham, Hosmer, EValdez & Abreu and M Ferguson & C Rosier

Fangraphs has the Sox rotation placing 13th- just ahead of Houston. Projected WAR and IP 2.6 Sale 140 2.6 Whitlock 132 1.7 Kluber 148 1.6 Bello 103 1.5 Paxton 121 1.3 Pivetta 152 0.7 Houck 52 0.3 Crawford 26 0.1 Mata and Walter Huh? Wha? I like our projections and all, but this one seems optimistic to me. Kluber and Pivetta look like solid number three starters, but their presence at the top of this list should alarm you. Getting 140 innings from Sale? He only threw 195 total from 2019 to 2022. The innings he does throw should be solid – he’s Chris Sale, still – but 140 sounds like a big ask at this point in his career. The same goes for Paxton’s 121 IP – he’s made six starts in the past three years. With him, I’m also concerned about how his stuff will look, given that he’ll be 34 and only recently started throwing off a mound again. A return to form would be a pleasant surprise, with the emphasis on “surprise.” The good news for Beantowners is that an exciting youth movement is brewing below Paxton on this depth chart. Whitlock has been nails as a reliever and acceptable as a starter, and the team wants him in the rotation if possible, though he’ll miss the start of the season as he rehabs from hip surgery. Bello lit the minors aflame before putting in solid work in his debut last year, and we think his stuff will lead to more strikeouts (and yes, lots of walks) this year. I think he’ll comfortably eclipse this innings total as an obvious replacement for the various injured Sox. That’s assuming he can stay healthy himself – he won’t debut until mid-April thanks to elbow soreness. Houck is ticketed for a bullpen role, but he can start in a pinch. Boston’s young hurlers might be able to rescue the rickety rotation. Consider me unconvinced, though. There’s too much bust and injury risk here for my liking. I’m not saying it can’t work out well. I just think that a prudent weighing of variables says that the Sox are running a large risk of ruin. Every team is two lost starters away from disaster, but the Sox seem more likely to run afoul of that problem than anyone else in this area of the list.

Fangraphs has Bello listed as a "breakout candidate..." https://blogs.fangraphs.com/szymborskis-2023-breakout-candidates-pitchers/ Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox In the list of Greatest Decisions Ever Made, you’ll never find “picked a guy currently out with a forearm strain to have a breakout season.” But I’m still going to do it anyway, since it appears that Bello will be back from his current malady at the end of April. From FIP to xFIP to xERA to zERA, all the various run estimators that don’t use actual runs widely agreed that his rookie 4.71 ERA was highly misleading and that his pitching deserved better than that. ZiPS is convinced that he should have had eight more strikeouts and five fewer walks than his peripherals suggested, meaning that there’s even more room for his FIP to improve, or at least stay the same when he inevitably allows a few more homers than just the one in 57 1/3 innings. Bello can throw 98 and already changes speeds like a veteran; if his arm is OK, I think he’s could be just a little slider refinement away from being Boston’s best starting pitcher.

So, we have Story and Mondesi on the 60 day IL, and Alfaro on a minor league deal. That clears up some 40 and 26 man roster issues, for now, but some changes are bound to happen to both- maybe some within a couple weeks. Players coming off the IL and possible moves: Whitlock (early/mid April)> Ort to AAA Paxton (mid April)> Kelly to AAA Bello (mid/late April)> Bello or Crawinck to AAA Rodriguez (early/mid May)> Crawinck to AAA Mills (Mid May)> Mills to AAA When Mondesi or Story come off the 60, my guess is Chang will be demoted and Ort or Chang will be traded or DFA'd.

Those two certainly look like major keys to our 2023 success, but I like the fact that we have many others that can step it up and give the team a big boost, in case one or both of these guys do not excel. Yoshiad Turner Casas Duvall Kike/Arroyo Dugo/Ref/Tapia Kluber Whitlock Houck Crawinck Martin Maybe a surprise from someone not mentioned.

I still think this past winter was Bloom's "legacy" or "Make or break" winter. I'm not going to move the goalpost, here, but I will point out that the massive rise in top FA costs did make the total possible value added through free agency more difficult than I had thought, before the winter began. It's sink or swim time for Chaim. He may not be fired, if we do poorly due to injuries, but I expect he will be, if we fail to look good.

6 or 7 games left for most teams and only 4 teams are eliminated from the playoffs: 16-59 Detroit 18-58 Houston 19-56 San Antonio 26-51 Charlotte Only 2 teams are within one game of being eliminated. 32-44 Orlando 32-43 Portland 10 Western teams are still on the playoff bubble, and 3 have clinched slots. 8 Easterns teams are on the bubble, while 5 have clinched. 10 teams from each conference make the playoffs.

What are posters' beliefs on these over/unders? Or, just say the one you think is the most clear over and most clear under... OPS .870 Devers .815 Yoshida .790 Turner .785 Casas .780 Duvall .750 Verdugo .750 Kike .740 Arroyo .700 McGuire ERA 3.40 Whitlock 3.50 Sale 3.75 Houck 4.15 Bello 4.25 Kluber 4.50 Pivetta 4.60 Crawford 4.70 Winckowski Saves 34 Jansen

Under Devers 145 Over Verdugo 145 Over Yoshida 145 Over Casas 130 Over Kike 130 Over Turner 130 Over Duvall 120 Under McGuire 110 Over Arroyo 90 Over Story 80 Under GS Pivetta 27+ Over Kluber 25+ Under Whitlock 23+ Over Sale 20+ Over Paxton 15+ Under Houck 15+ Under (in pen) Bello 15+ Over Crawford 12+ Over (due to expected injuries) Winckowski 10+ Under (Bello and Crawford will do well.)

I always thought Bell was pretty rational about Chaim, all along- not pro or anti.

Horrendous? 2022 CERA & Most PAs with each catcher (OPS): 4.21 Vaz 456 Pivetta .692 262 Hill .790 215 Whitlock .670 202 Wacha .720 174 Houck .551 4.32 Plawecki 303 Nate .748 251 Wacha .527 149 Wink .859 124 Crawford .742 101 Hill .642 Maybe the guy who caught more of Crawford and Wink might than Whitlock and Houck should get an adjustment. Plawecki also did better with Wacha and Hill- the two guys they both caught, a lot.

I totally agree. We don't really know what McGuire will bring to our staff. I'm hopeful our scouts and talent evaluators know what they are doing, but it's not like they have a perfect track record. Last year, they almost traded for Stallings. His offensive numbers fell off a cliff and I see no evidence his CERA-related abilities were better than other catchers on the Marlins. Fingers crossed.

I've often been criticized for bringing up CERA-related issues and the small or unbalanced nature of the sample sizes, but using McGuire's very short and highly lop-sided sample size from 2022 is really pushing it. First of all, many of our best pitchers were on the IL for much or all of his time, here. Second, his sample sizes were tiny with each pitcher and very lop-sided when compared to Vaz and Plawecki, when looking at who he caught, mostly. Plus, there has to be an adjustment period, and he is basically starting ovr, this spring, as much of staff is brand new to him.

He also played just over 290 games over his first 5 seasons in MLB. As much as I have criticized his work with our staff, I still think he was a net plus and a good guy in the clubhouse. I'm hopeful this catching group can outperform the last one, fairly quickly.

Speaking of the IL, covers has this... Red Sox ETAs: Thur?: Kike, Turner Mid April: Whitlock, Paxton Late April: Bello Mid July: Story Indefinitely: Mondesi, Mills, Rodriguez Yankee ETAs: Thur?: N Cortes, Marinaccio, Rortvedt Early APR: Severino Late APR: Rodon, Bader, Kahnle, A Wells Mid May: Trivino Indefinitely: Montas, Gil Season: Effross

If everyone was healthy, this would likely be the 26 man roster and the Woo roster: The Healthy 26 Sale, Kluber, Whitlock, Paxton, Pivetta Jansen, Martin, Houck, Rodriguez, Brasier, Bleier, Crawford, Kelly McGuire, Wong Casas, Turner (DH) Arroyo Hernandez, Mondesi Devers Yoshida Duvall, Tapia Verdugo, Refsnyder AAA & AA (ML Ready or close) Bello, Winckowski, Mata, Walter, Murphy, Gudino Mills, Ort, Sheriff, Fernandez, Mosqueda, Shugart, Dermody, Feltman, Altavilla Alfaro, CHamilton, RHernandez Dalbec, Palka EValdez, EDiaz, Sogard Chang, DHamilton, Goodrum Koss, Fitzy Duran, Wilson Rafaela, Allen Crook, Abreu

I wasn't aware Mondesi was so far away. I'm still wondering about the out-of-the-system pitcher they were seeking.

Maybe they felt he was a flop at 2B.

Someone would likely trade for Duran and Dalbec, but their stock is likely too low, right now to make it worthwhile. I think the Sox hope they build value to a point where we can trade them for something better, of they can contribute on the big club in 2023 or 2024. I do think our AAA depth looks better than recent years, and we will be seeing some of them on the big club to open the season- replacing Story, Mondesi, Whitlock, Rodriguez and maybe Bello and Mills who might have won an opening day slot.

Not exactly. He could not/would not make our 40, either.