moonslav59

He always had the most flavorful coffee.

Our farm pitching has greatly improved as indicated by all the recent grads and call-ups that have shown promise of more. It may look a bit weakened, due to the amount called up, recently, but I think the signs and trends are moving in the right direction, despite not drafting or signing IFA pitchers as much as batters. To me, I can't see how anyone does not see an improvement. Yes, it would be nice to be a more significant improvement, but here is a graphic: From Buchholz and Masterson (#1's in 2008) to Houck's call up in 2020 (farm of 2017 and later): Michael Bowden, Casey Kelly, Daniel Bard, Nick Hagadone Felix Doubront Stolmy Pimental, Drake Britton, Anthony Ranaudo Kyle Weiland, Matt Barnes, Henry Owens Allen Webster & Rubby de la Rosa (LAD trade) Trey Ball, B Workman & B Johnson ERod (trade) Anderson Espinoza & Michael Kopech Jay Groome & Travis Lakins 2017>2019 Houck, Beeks, Mata Shawaryn, Raudes, Scherff, DHern Feltman, TWard, Aldo Ramirez, Zeferjahn 2020 (Bloom, but most are DD prospects)>>> APRIL '20: Houck, Mata, Groome, Song, Ward, Zeferjahn, Ramirez, Murphy, Bello APRIL '21: Whitlock, Houck, Seabold, Ward, Ramirez, Mata, Song, Groome, Bazardo APRIL '22: Bello, Groome\, Mata, Walter, Wikelman, Seabold, Murphy, Crawford, Ward APRIL '23 (Bello barely graduated), Mata, Perales, Walter, Drohan, Wikelman, E R-C, Murphy, Guerrero Am I being a homer, of is this improvement?

Matz is not worth the salary he makes- barely. That's all BTV is judging.

Most of us did not think Murphy and Walter would help the big club, and if they did, we might have expected 2024-2025. I'm not saying they will be great or even good, but how well pitchers do in the minors is not always a great indicator. Houck never put up great numbers on the farm. I still have some hopes for Perales, Drohan, E R-C, Mata and a mess of lower level pitchers. Even with a lot of recent pitching graduates and prospects on the 26, right now, I still like what is on the farm. Our everyday players do look much more promising, but I think we are okay with prospect pitching.

In the post I responded to, you mentioned only Mayer and Yorke. We disagree on the drafting pitchers as being essential, when everyday players look to be surer ets, and we have a very good track record with them. We can always trade our everyday prospects for a more sure pitcher, who has already proven he can do well. It's been a winning strategy for 2 decades.

1. He's a lefty. 2. After returning from a long injury, he struggled in 3 of his first 5 games, but in his last 4 games: 4 IP 2 Hits 0 ER (0.00 ERA) 0 BB 5K .385 OPS Against Yes, it's a small sample size, but he's out of options and has another year of team control. To me, it's Bernardino vs Murphy- both who can stay in the system, until the next pitcher gets hurt, which you know will happen, and can be called up. I will say, Bernardino and Murphy have both pitched well enough to "deserve" to stay on the 26. I'm looking longer term, and not just 2024. I'm looking at later, this season and want to keep all 3 on the team.

3 in the loss column.

You short-change other prospects in our system. Mayer, Rafaela, Yorke and Drohan, Abreu, Guerrero & Fernandez are near ML ready. That's 7 guys, including 3-4 highly regarded prospects plus 3 prospects that have already shown they can help in the bigs: EValdez, Walter, Murphy. That's 10 prospects- with maybe 4-7 with significant promise. Rafaela is now over 1.000 in AAA. His D is superb. Yorke is doing fine. Drohan has struggled in AAA, but so did Murphy in the second half of 2022. Don't write off all 10. Farther away prospects look very promising, including... Anthony is skyrocketing on every rankings list. Bleis got hurt, but he is still highly regarded. Perales E R-C and Wikelman, who happen to be pitchers, have been shining, of late.

Why not? 20 GS 119 IP (about 6 IP/GS) 2.88 ERA 155 ERA+ leads league .560 OPS Against is astounding for a SP over 6 IP per start x 20 0.5 HR/9 leads league 1.087 WHIP He's getting better: last 11 starts 2.62 ERA .517 OPS Against He's pitching like an ace.

BAL & TOR won. The Rays lost. The O's now lead the Rays by 3 in the loss column. 59-37 BAL 60-40 TBR -1.0 54-43 TOR -5.5 51-46 BOS -8.5 50-47 NYY -9.5 WC Race 60-40 TBR +7.5 over BOS 54-43 TOR +3.0 over BOS 53-43 HOU +2.5 over BOS (HOU up 2-1 in 7th) 51-46 BOS -2.5 50-47 NYY -3.5 49-48 LAA -4.5 48-48 SEA -5.0 47-49 CLE -6.0 (-2.0 from MIN in ALC)

He also puts on a clinic, every time he plays.

Tough call, but Joely has no options remaining. I have the choice being Bernardino vs Murphy with the loser being demoted.

Woo won 10-8 Rafaela continues to rake: 3-4 w 2B, 3B & BB (His AAA OPS is now 1.025) Dalbec 2-5 (1.043 OPS) Scott 2-4 w 2HRs and 6 rbi RHern 2-5 w HR DHam 2-5 w 2B POR lost 7-4 Schreiber pitched a scoreless Inning and may be called up Sat or Sun off the 60 IL. Lugo 2-4 w HR Hickey 2-4 w 2B Jordan 2-4 Mayer 1-4 w BB GRE was rained out SAL won 8-3 Luis de la Rosa (my sleeper prospect) went 3.2 scoreless but walked 4 (1H) 2-3 Asigen w BB 2-4 Romero w BB 0-3 Jh Garcia w 2BB FCL won 7-1 3-4 Joh Garcia w 2B (.975) 3-5 Yuten w 2B (.969) 1-4 w 3B Fitzgerald (1.182) 1-3 w HR Salazar (1.023) 3-4 Sierra (.897) Both DSL teams lost Batista 4IP, 3H, 0ER, 0BB, 1K Figueroa 3IP, 0H, 0ER, 2BB, 2K JMartinez 3.1IP, 1H, 0ER, 1BB, 6K

Like Stroman, Giolito or ____?

With a day off, 3 games, day off, 2 games, day off, then road trip out west, I'm thinking flipping them allows Paxton to get extra rest in following GS'd, too: 7/21 NYM Crawford 7/22 NYM Paxton (+2 days rest) 7/23 NYM (Pivetta as "bulk" pitcher +1) OFF 7/25 ATL Bello (+1) 7/26 ATL Crawford OFF 7/28 @SFG Paxton (+1) 7/29 @SFG Pivetta (+1) 7/30 @SFG Bello 7/31 @SEA Crawford 8/1 @SEA (Trade Deadline) New SP'er? 8/2 @ SEA New SP'er or Paxton OFF

I do think the farm is more bottom level heavy, but I don't think we are all that weak at the top. Here is a look at what the farm has given us, recently and the ETAs on those to come: We have no graduated prospects prior to May 2021 on our roster, except Devers (SEP '17. Graduated: 2021: Whitlock, Houck, Dalbec 2022: Bello, Duran, Crawford, Winckowski, Wong, Ort 2023: Casas, Bernardino, Kelly MLB Experience (not graduated): 13. Murphy, 11. Walter, 10. E Valdez, 22. Hamilton, 47. J Jacquez ETA (RED= Rule 5 this winter) 2023: 18. Mata (injured) 2024: 1. Mayer, 3. Rafaela, 5. Yorke, 6. Drohan, 20. Abreu, 25. Guerrero, 26. R Fernandez 2025: 9. Wikelman, 12. Bonaci, 14. Meidroth, 15. Jordan, 17. Paulino, 21. Hickey 2026: 2. Bleis, 4. Anthony, 7. Perales, 8. Romero, 19. E R-C, 25. Castro, 29. Ravelo, 30. Rogers 2027>: 16. Joh Garcia, 23. Cespedes, 27. C Coffey, 28. Alcantara, 31. Brannon, 32. Monegro In this light, the talent seems pretty evenly distributed.

It's hard to know just how good the farm is, especially with all the HS picks in our drafts. Ben's farm ended up not doing all that great in the bigs, but they brought us a lot in trade. We do seem weaker at the AAA level, but we just graduated Bello, Casas and Duran, and before that Whitlock and Wink.

Mayer.

Excellent post. I do think the GMs hire or keep the guys in charge of scouting, developing and indicating who to draft and sign, so they do deserve some credit.

That is something new, so maybe it is reversible. It is a concern, though. OPS v L .439 in '20 (22 PAs) .639 in '21 (137 PAs) .766 in '22 (101) .813 in '23 (145) I find these issues more concerning... OPS 3rd time through: 1.489 in '21 (18 PAs) only 3 PAs in 2022 .901 in '23 (51 PAs) Pitch 51-75 1.103 in '20 (15 PAs) .726 in '21 .663 in '22 (31) .931 in '23 (51) The real danger is likely a lefty the 3rd time through.

Cora said they wanted JS to pitch back to back days before a call-up, so here it is. He did well in both. Maybe gets called up Sat or Sun. Who goes down? Jacques?

Tough call with such a small sample size. I'd lean towards a YES. I'm terrible at projecting longer term deal amounts, especially for pre-arb players.

The Brewers are in first place, despite being swept by the A's 3-0.

Duquette left Theo a very nice foundation with very little deadwood and a decent farm system. I'm not sure I'd bump him over anyone, except Ben. Bloom's farm is largely TBD. Ben's farm was useful for DD to trade away for several ket pieces, but as it turned out, his prospects did not do as well as expected. Should he get points for the fact that DD turned them into Sale, Kimbrell & others. Too many poor big ticket decisions puts him last, in my book. I wanted to see him get another year or two at the helm, but in hindsight, I'm not sure we win another ring. 1. Theo 2. DD 3. Bloom (may pass DD, if his prospects amount to anything.) 4. Duquette 5. Ben

As players start returning from the IL, including maybe 3 from the 60 day, which would create a need to clear a roster slot, we will need to send some players to the minors and trade or DFA others. 60 Day IL Schreiber (may be called within a week) Story (mid August?) Sale (mid August, if at all?) IL Reyes (is ready, now. His rehab time expires very soon.) Houck (early/mid August?) Whitlock (mid August?) Kluber (not sure anyone cares) McGuire (August?) My Ordered DFA/Trade list: 1. Ort (2 options remaining) 2. Garza (3 options remaining) 3. Jacques (3) 4. Alfaro (0) only when McGuire is activated 5. Kluber (0) He might be 1 or 2 on my list, but maybe he can get one more chance to show he can be a plus. 6. Bleier (0) 7. Duvall (0) Trade Only 8. Kike (0- last year of control) or Arroyo (0- 1 more arb year) 9. DHam (3) He will not be DFA'd. Here is what I would do... Ups> Demote Schreiber> Jacques (DFA Ort as JS comes off the 60) Reyes> Trade Duvall or Kike (take Story off 60 to fill 40 man slot, as he starts/ends rehabbing) Houck> Walter Whitlock> DFA Kluber or Blier (take Sale off the 60 to fill 40 man slot, as he starts/ends rehabbing) McGuire> DFA Alfaro Story> DFA or trade Reyes, Arroyo or Kike (Keep Chang) Someone is likely to get hurt and placed on the short or 60 day IL, before all these guys come back, of maybe some of these guys never make it back, but this is the way I see it, right now. My healthy 26 man roster would be: Paxton, Bello, Sale, Crawford, Houck Pivetta, Whitlock, Winckowski Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Joely, (Bernardino or Murphy/ demote the other) Wong, McGuire Casas Story, Chang, Reyes, (Kike or Arroyo) Yoshida, Refsnyder Duran, (Duvall) Dugo Turner I think we should trade one from Duvall, Kike or Arroyo and keep Chang and Reyes on the 26 and 40.