moonslav59

Some numbers on Catching in MLB, today. (Source: fangraphs) I won't count 2020. The league fWAR for the catching position has ranged from 46.4 in 2007 to 79.5 in 2012. Divide by 30 teams, and the team avg has been between about 1.5 and 2. 6. The Sox have a 43.2 fWAR in the last 20 years, or about a 1.5 rate per year. It's been 4.5 in the last 3 years (1.5 avg.) It was 1.0 in 2023- below average. It did not help that Alfaro and CHamilton totaled a -0.3 fWAR in just 8 games, but even if you discount them, we were below average, but pretty close to average. As I've opined, before, I think most catchers reach their peaks on defense after age 29, 30 or even later. McGuire is 28 and soon to be 29. He was injured for part of 2023, but put up some decent fWARs in 2021 (1.4) and 2022 (1.6), while never playing in more than 90 games. That is pretty impressive. fangraphs has not been kind to the 27 year old Wong, He has a 0.8 fWAR in 159 games in MLB, career. bWAR had this for 2023: 2.2 Wong (same as Casas) -0.1 Alfaro -0.1 CHamilton -0.3 McGuire I think we might get to about average at Catcher in 2024, both on O and D. Just my opinion and certainly could be homer biased.

You gotta give him over a million extra to get him to play here.

I'd give him $2M, so that should win the bidding.

Not surprising. 2022 AA 48 BB in 50.2 IP 2023 AA 16 BB in 51.1 IP 2023 AAA 4 BB in 8.1 IP 68 BB in 110 IP 150 K's is nice, but...

https://bnnbreaking.com/sports/red-sox-pitcher-kutter-crawfords-offseason-bonding-preparation-for-the-2024-season

I agree, but there is a lot of rural poverty, crime, drug addiction and high drop out rates, too.

Crawford went to the school of Chris Martin's Ranch, this winter.

Hard to know. Nobody expected Wacha, Hill and Strahm to do as well as they did. Either way, there has been a lot of turnover between '22 and '23 as well as ;23 to '24.

#50 Rafaela... Rafaela is a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder with a very immature approach. Rafaela is a Gold Glove-caliber center field defender capable of making tough plays look easy and impossible plays possible, especially around the wall. He took to center field very quickly after moving there from shortstop (where he still plays on occasion) a few years ago. Especially if you’re inclined to project improvement here because he hasn’t played the outfield for very long, Rafaela has a chance to be the best defensive center fielder in baseball at peak. He is also capable of playing a couple of spots on the infield, though not nearly as well; unless his plate discipline is so terrible that he shifts into a premium utility role, he is probably just going to play center field all the time. Even at 23, Rafaela still has a sinewy, projectable frame. He’s hit 21 bombs each of the last two seasons and we project he’ll add another half grade of power in his mid-to-late 20s. Whether he’ll get to that power is another matter — Rafaela is a very aggressive hitter who has chased at a 40% clip each of the last two seasons. There is some risk of his offense totally bottoming out the way Cristian Pache‘s did, but here he’s projected more like Kevin Pillar but with peak years of superior power.

#14 Anthony... Anthony developed into a better center fielder throughout 2023 and has the offensive foundation (plate discipline and contact) to be a top five prospect if he can more readily get to his power in games. It took us an extra beat to get on this train because Anthony has some weird underlying data characteristics that have us doubting whether his plate discipline is as good as his walk rates might indicate; we also thought he needed a swing change to get to his power (he still kind of does). But Anthony looked much better on tape as a center field defender in September than he did early in the 2023 season, and re-evaluating his defensive home makes a gigantic difference in the way he’s projected overall because he can now have an offensive flaw or two and still be an impact everyday player. While he still isn’t a true big league-caliber speedster or dynamic defensive outfielder, Anthony’s long strides give him enough gap-to-gap range to play center field at an average level, and his reads and ball skills looked much better late in 2023 than they did when Anthony first transitioned from mostly right field to center in pro ball. Anthony’s swing has become almost a carbon copy of Rafael Devers‘ cut, with a violent, mostly downward swooping bat path that relies on the bend in his lower half to go down and scoop low pitches with power like Devers does. While Anthony has shown some ability to do this (it’s absolutely gorgeous when he does), he isn’t doing so consistently. Opposing pitchers can limit his power by approaching him in the bottom half of the strike zone, as he tends to drive those pitches into the ground, and soft stuff precisely located down and away from him often eludes him entirely. Anthony slugged .466 at mostly Low- and High-A in 2023, but his expected slugging percentage based on his quality of contact was only .370; there isn’t consistent lift and power here yet despite his surface level performance. Again, this was way more of an issue in our estimation of him when he was projected as a corner guy. The rest of Anthony’s profile is pretty clean; he’s tough to make swing and miss, he has fantastic bat speed, he already has big league-average raw power as he approaches his 20th birthday, and he’s still physically projectable. Anthony’s plate discipline evokes a baked good that has too much food coloring in it; there’s an air of artificiality to it that makes it feel a bit unnatural. We hypothesize this because Anthony lets a lot of tasty pitches go right past him. One team we source data from tracks players’ “cookie swing rate”; in essence, the rate of swing when a pitch is right down the middle of the plate. Anthony’s was among the lowest in the minors last year, and we think it speaks to an approach that includes premeditated takes rather than actual selectivity. We’re skeptical his elite walk rates will continue as he sees more upper-level time, but the all-around offensive package here is still a big deal for a viable center fielder. Like Spencer Jones of the Yankees, we’re projecting some on swing actualization and center field defense to get to this big time FV grade. Anthony will probably only kick down the door and force the big league issue if things click with his swing, and is probably on more of a late 2026 or early 2027 debut trajectory if they don’t.

2022: 3-0 @OAK 3-0 @ LAA 2-1 @ SEA (the 1 loss was 7-6, when Robles let up 2 in the bottom of the 9th))

"Possible, if not likely" IMO, a player's first 162 games in MLB are rarely his best. They might be all he gets, and some who don't make it, do drop out of baseball by doing the same or worse than their first 162 games in MLB. (Dalbec might be an example of this.) With catchers, again, IMO, most mature and improve on D after age 28. Many don't until their 30's, including VTek. With his offense, it's hard to project how anybody does after just 473 career PAs, and you don't need a good OPS to be middle of the pack in MLB. Catcher OPS in MLB: .697 in '21 .663 in '22 .697 in .23 Wong is at .670, right now. 2023 was his first real "full season" at the MLB level. He was at .721 as late as Sept 12th, but that .198 OPS over his last 43 PAs really killed is seasonal numbers. Of course, they should count, but I see a real possibility he improves his O, and I think it is likely he improves his D.

Indeed. We've had 6 pitchers ranked 1-2-3 in the last 9 years. Only Bello is pitching at the ML level. (Mata might be, this year.) We've had 15 pitchers ranked 4-8th: Whitlock & Houck are on our big club team. Kopech and Beeks are the only others to do anything significant. Wink & Crawford were ranked 9th or lower and have done better than most of our 1-8 ranked pitching prospects. My point was meant to highlight the possibility that maybe a pitcher in our system, right now, not named Wikelman or Perales, might end up outshining the others, or maybe Wikelman or Perales outshine those previously ranked higher than they are, now. or not.

Agreed, but improvement is certainly possible, if not likely. Most players best 162 games are not their first.

Well, one of sale's was from riding a bike. 2018> games played/ PAs 560/1989 Duvall 477/1636 O'Neill 2021-2023 324/1223 Duvall 306/1186 O'Neill Pretty close to a wash

VTek's career by age group: Offense: .763 OPS up to age 28 (91 OPS+) .831 OPS from 29-33 (114 OPS+) .726 OPS from ages 34-39 (87 OPS+) dWAR 1.2 in 2750 innings (>28) 3.0 in 4,650 innings (29-33) 4.6 in 4,600 innings (34-39) His best DRS seasons: +7 at 37 +4 at 36 +2 at 35 +1 at 34 0 at age 32 and 30

Many catchers improve, some greatly, after 28, especially on D. VTek's best years were after age 30. (His O was better, too, but that cannot be expected from Wong.) Wong hasn't even played 162 games in MLB, yet. It's entirely possible he improves on those numbers in the next 5 years.

It's not good that he misses the same time Duvall did. Mt point was that O'Neill's comp with Duvall includes about the same injury risk. I think replacing Duvall with O'Neill is close to a push. Replacing Dugo with more OF play from Abreu, Rafaela and Duran is highly speculative.

Kinda the same for all major cities.

Plus, he's only 30. Most players don't decline the day after they turn 30. Some start before 30, but I'm guessing most start after 30. A ton of career seasons came at age 30 or later, and yes, Yoshida is a unique case, in several ways: 1. Cultural adjustment 2. Game and league adjustments 3. Longer season (ran out of steam in Sept) 4. Should DH way more than play LF in 2024

When in the minors, many felt he might not stick at catcher. He seems to have improved, a lot. He's really good in some areas, but below average in others. To me, the big thing is how he can or cannot get the most out of our staff. With so much turnover, it's hard to establish any sort of relationship that can grow. If Teel ends up as good as many think he will, Wong could end up one of the leagues best back-up catchers.

Every park has the same SS and 2B dimensions. The SS at Fenway even has to deal with bounces off the foul territory wall to them. Catching at Fenway is easier, since the back stop is closer. RF is way more difficult than most parks. CF is quirky and maybe more difficult. LF is "easier," but learning the wall can be tough. To me, our defense looked as bad as I have ever seen it, last year. When Story played almost FT, it improved, but was still awful. SS was 30th, until Story moved it up a few notches. 2B was worst, and now we look to have an average defender who might become plus, someday. 1B & 3B have the same guys, so I'll leave that as a push, despite the idea that Casas improved over the year and could be better. C should improve, slightly as Wong and McGuire near the normal age of catcher maturation. OF is tough to call, since we don't really know what the alignment will be. Less Yoshida in LF maybe cancels out less Dugo in RF. The more we see Duran in LF, instead of CF, the better our OF D will be. The more Rafaela plays, the better the D is. Abreu is largely unknown, but looks okay, at worst. O'Neill in LF is a plus- in RF, probably not as good as Dugo. I think we move up from 30th to 21-24. With the right guys playing, maybe we can reach the middle tier.

The idea of what constitutes "prime" is usually between 26-32. With SP'ers, one usually has more concerns after 30-32, but I'm not sure if that is based on data. Many hitters are still strong at age 30. Many have their career years in their early 30's. I think it is reasonable to think Yoshida might improve after adjusting to a new culture, league and game, itself. We all know he might not.

Kopech has been healthier than Espinoza. Does that change anything?

It might get close to average, but I doubt it reaches good status.