moonslav59

Duvall broke his wrist APR 9. Duran's first game in APR was the 17th, so yes. When Duvall returned in early June, he played mostly CF and some RF.

There is not an easy way to show who replaces who, since some is based on more projected PAs from players that were on the 2023 team, and some position swaps will occur, most notably, Yoshida will DH more, but his PAs are not really replacing Turner's. It will be whoever plays LF in his place. Here are the PAs lost (GS Position) 626 Turner (98 DH, 35 1B, 7 3B, 4 2B) Yoshida started 49 at DH. For argument's sake, let's say Yoshida plays all Turner's games at DH, so OF'ers will replace those PAs by Turner. Who plays 3B and 1B as a back-up is unknown.) 602 Dugo (140 RF): We do not know who will play RF, but it looks like Abreu & O'Neill might combine for 602 PAs in RF. 353 Duvall (61 CF, 20 RF, 3 LF, 3 DH)- looks like Duran can add some PAs and Rafaela will get the rest in CF. 323 Kike (64 SS, 14 2B. 14 CF)- Looks like Story, Grissom and Reyes will add at least the 750 PAs of these 4 guys. 206 Arroyo (51 2B) 112 Chang (30 SS, 2 2B) 109 Urias (24 2B, 4 3B) 97 Tapia (9LF, 5 RF, 4 CF)- more PAs from Refsnyder, Rafaela and Abreu. another 100 or so with odds and ends- who knows? It's about 2500 total PAs lost- not all by plus batters. (Note: Dugo had a 100 OPS+) My guess: +550 Grissom +450 Story (to 618) +450 O'Neill (could be 550) +400 Rafaela (to 489) +400 Abreu (to 485) +200 Duran (to 562) +50 Casas (to 552) Of course, people will get hurt. We may see Dalbec, DHam and guys like Reyes get a lot more PAs than 2023. I do think we should be okay. I think posters are only looking at the top 3 players lost and are maybe remembering Dugo as some sort of plus bat. He wasn't in 2023. Kike had 20 fewer PAs than Duvall, but only replacing Duval is mentioned. Kike had a 62 OPS+, which is horrific and should be easy to improve upon by Story, Reyes, and Grissom. Same with... Arroyo's 206 PAs and 70 OPS+. Chang's 112 PAs and 45 OPS+. Urias 109 PAs and 91 OPS+. Tapia's 97 PAs and 90 OPS+ Kike and these other 4 players, alone, combined for 750 PAs, which is more than Turner or Dugo. Our offense should be fine, assuming the norm on injuries. We have some unknowns, like Grissom, Abreu and Rafaela and the injury-prone O'Neill, but it's not like we had perfect health, last year.

He played mostly CF after starting with the big club in mid April. He was pretty close to FT from his first game of 2023 in MLB to his IL stint in AUG to the end of the year. Duran played in 102 games from team game 17 to 124, so basically 102 out of 118, which is about 6-8 games from FT as Cora allows.

I think the idea is Duran ploays FT and stay healthy, but yes, that might ony cover half of Turner's missing PAs. The other half? Maybe O'Neill can get much more PAs than Duvall had, and fill most of the gap. The rest has to come from more PAs by Story, Rafaela & Abreu.

I like soxprospects.com and think they do a fine job covering the farm. Here is a look back at how good and bad some of their rankings have been. I'm looking at only top 5's by 3 year intervals: Highest ranking lister per player 2003-2005: 1. Lester, HRam, Youk, Papelbon, F Sanchez, J de la Rosa 2. B Moss 3. Pedroia, A Sanchez, K ShoppachA Alvarez 4. (none) 5. C Hansen, C Span, P Dumatrait 2006-2008: 1. Lester, Papelbon, Ellsbury, Buchholtz, Masterson, L Anderson 2. C Hansen, M Bowden 3. J Lowrie, J Reddick 4. M Almanzar 5. B Moss, M Delcarmen, C Kelly, B Cox 2009-2011 1. C Kelly, L Anderson, R Kalish, W Middlebrooks 2. J Reddick, A Ranaudo, L Anderson, M Bowden 3. A Rizzo, F Doubront 4. Bogaerts, D Bard, L Anderson, R Westmoreland, D Britton 5. J Iglesias, J Tazawa, Y Navarro, S Pimental 2012-2014 1. Betts, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, Swihart 2. JBJ, Barnes, Ranaudo, Owens 3. Margot, Webster, Cecchini 4. Devers, Iglesias 5. ERod, R de la Rosa, Lavarnway, Brentz 2015-2017: 1. Devers, ERod, Moncada, Swihart, Groome 2. Beni, Chavis 3. Mata, Espinoza, Owens, S Travis 4. Houck, Margot 5. Dalbec, Kopech, B Johnson, D Flores 2018-2020 1. Casas, Groome, Chavis 2. Mata, Downs, Dalbec, DHern 3. Duran, Houck 4. Song, Jimenez 5. S Travis 2021-2023 1. Casas, Mayer, Anthony 2. Downs, Bleis 3. Bello, Duran, Yorke, Rafaela, Teel 4. Whitlock 5. Houck, Walter, Mata 2003-2023 (21 years fo soxprospects.com) 1. Betts, Lester, Devers, Bogaerts, Papelbon, HRam, Youk, Erod, Casas Anthony, Mayer, Ellsbury, Buchholz, Moncada, Masterson, J de la Rosa, W Middlebrooks Swihart, C Kelly, L Anderson, R Kalish, Groome, Chavis 2. JBJ, Barnes, J Reddick, B Moss, Beni Mata, Bleis, C Hansen, Dalbec, DHern M Bowden, A Ranaudo, Owens, Downs 3. Pedroia, Rizzo, A Sanchez, Doubront, Duran, Houck Margot, K Shoppach, J Lowrie, Rafaela, Yorke, Teel Espinoza. A Alvarez, Webster, Cecchini, S Travis 4. Whitlock, D Bard, J Iglesias N Song, M Almanzar, Westmoreland, D Britton, Jimenez 5. J Tazawa M DelCarmen, B Johnson, Walter C Span, P Dumatrait, B Cox, Y Navarro, S Pimental, R de la Rosa, Lavarnway, Brentz, D Florez

Various fWAR projections for our rotation: The BAT 2.2 Pivetta 2.1 Bello 2.1 Giolito 1.9 Crawford 1.8 Houck ATC 2.2 Bello 2.1 Pivetta 2.1 Giolito 1.7 Crawford 1.6 Houck Steamer 2.5 Bello 2.3 Giolito 2.0 Pivetta 1.8 Houck 1.7 Crawford ZIPS 2.5 Giolito 2.3 Bello 1.6 Crawford 1.3 Pivetta 1.2 Houck Average: 2.2 Bello 2.2 Giolito 1.9 Pivetta 1.7 Crawford 1.6 Houck Highest: 2.5 Bello 2.5 Giolito 2.2 Pivetta 1.9 Crawford 1.8 Houck

He will be 37, by then, so 3 years might be unlikely, but yes, I doubt he's here year 3.

True. It would take both sides thinking he's worth about $12M for it to be accepted by both sides. Even then, Liam might want to seek a longer deal, at his age. The Sox might think he's worth $12M, but may still be on the cheap. or want to spend that money elsewhere.

Good for him.

He may out hit the 2024 Turner.

At $12M, it looks that way.

Steamer has much different rankings and projections: 14. Devers 4.8 61. Casas 3.0 116. Grissom 2.1 138. Story 1.8 142. Yoshida 1.7 150. O'Neill 1.7 197. Duran 1.3 222. Abreu 1.1 44. Bello 2.5 48. Giolito 2.3 70. Pivetta 2.0 80. Houck 1.8 91. Crawford 1.7 158. Whitlock 0.9 Bello & Gio #2's Pivetta & Houck #3's Crawford #4 No #1, but no #5, either. With 4 pitchers in the 2-3 range, it actually makes it a plus, on paper. The average ranking of our 5 is a 66.7, and the league avg should be 75. 21. Snell 3.3 22. Monty 3.2

If you go by the 0-30 is a #1, 31-60 is a #2.... Our rotation looks like this... Pitching: 40. Giolito 2.5 #2 55. Bello 2.3 #2 94. Whitlock 1.9 #4 but likely will be in the pen. 113. Crawford 1.6 #4 120. Fitts 1.6 #5 (in AAA) 161. Pivetta 1.3 #6 177. Walter 1.2 #6 193. Wink 1.2 203. Houck 1.2 #7 #2 Gio #2 Bello #4 Crawford #6 Pivetta #7 Houck

ZIPS fWAR Projections and player rankings: 33. Devers 3.0 91. Grissom 2.6 103. Story 2.4 117. O'Neill 2.3 131. Yoshida 2.1 134. Rafaela 2.1 168. Casas 1.9 (.846 OPS but -12.7 on D) 192 Teel 1.8 (456 PAs) 202. Abreu 1.7 208. DHam 1.7 (496 PAs) 231. Duran 1.6 249. EValdez 1.5 Pitching: 40. Giolito 2.5 55. Bello 2.3 94. Whitlock 1.9 113. Crawford 1.6 120. Fitts 1.6 161. Pivetta 1.3 177. Walter 1.2 193. Wink 1.2 203. Houck 1.2 Note: 19. Snell 3.1 25. Monty 2.9 117. Clevinger 1.6 124 German 1.5 155. Lorenzen 1.3 251. Lauer 1.1

Here is one way to view the changes from 2023 to 2024: Sale & Paxton for Giolito & more starts from Pivetta. Kluber for more starts from Houck & Crawford. Duvall for O'Neill. Kike & Chang for more time from Story Arroyo, Urias & Kike for Grissom. Turner for Yoshida (to DH), but really for more playing time from Duran, Abreu & Rafaela. Dugo for more playing time from Duran, Abreu, Rafaela and maybe Refsnyder (or more PAs from O'Neill over the 353 Duvall gave us- see Duvall.) Schreiber for Hendricks Bleier, Llovera, Ort, Brasier & others for Campbell, Slaten, Mata, Weissert and others.

Liam Hendriks will earn $2MM in 2024 and $6MM in 2025. There’s also a $2MM buyout on the 2026 option, which is valued at $12MM. The $10MM worth of incentives in the deal are all tied to Hendriks’ 2025 performance. There are no incentives tied to the 2024 season.

Let's not walk down the politics road, again.

I'm still hoping for Monty, even if it means trading Jansen's salary.

Because we are mediocre.

As long as Rafaela or Abreu are in CF, I think it is beyond potential. Rafaela in CF, Abreu in RF and Duran/O'Neill in LF is the ideal defensive OF, but I think we need Duran & O'Neill's bats in the line-up almost everyday. Duran has yet to prove he can hit lefties, consistently, but when both are healthy, which might not be all that often, they should NOT platoon. That is where things start to get dicey. Duran LF, Rafaela/Abreu CF and O'Neill in RF, when all are healthy is still a step up on OF D. To me, the IF depth is a lock to be better. Only injuries can change that.

If I had to pick 3 guys that could make or break this season, I'd go with... Story Giolito Grissom The next 3 might be... Duran Pivetta Crawford Okay, I'll go 9... O'Neill Rafaela Houck I'm banking on Devers, Casas and Bello to be steady.

I'll guess no.

Maybe Pedey should start putting together a new ownership group with Pedro, Papi and ____.

Out of Whitlock, Wink and Houck, it does make sense that he'd be the one that starts, but I agree, he should be in the pen. I still think our staff could be greatly improved by signing a solid, innings eater SP'er and having Houck in the pen or as the 6th starter. I doubt it happens. I'd love to read we signed Monty, tomorrow morning, but I'm beyond even hoping for that. I'm even thinking Clevinger is a pipe dream. I find myself thinking a guy like Bauer might be worth a shot. Things are that bad. Dream on.

Agreed. Your “won’t say the “C” word is very offensive. I mean, where do you come up with this hateful thoughts?