moonslav59

None of the FA pitchers are on the Sox, until we sign them. I'm not a big Wacha fan, but he's not as bad as many seem to think he is, and his GS and IP, while not great, are ranked in the top 65 in MLB over the last 2 years. There are 150 SP'er slots in MLB (5 per team x 30 teams.) 65th is almost second tier. I see him about like I do Giolito. He's pitched better the last 2 years, but Giolito has started more games and pitched more innings. If I had to choose: Wacha > Giolito for 2024 only.

I think every GM values Mayer highly, as they should. I do think he looks like the logical one to trade, since we have Story (4 yrs) and Grissom (6 yrs,) but it could end up as a selling low trade. (I doubt we get much for Yorke, unless we package him with Duran, Rafaela or someone like Houck/Crawford. Since the "full throttle" is a sham, I'd just wait for the expected bump in value in 2024. Maybe Story bounces back and builds up his trade value, and we deal him while calling up Mayer. Teel looks like a keeper, too, but it is early. Bleis deserves a chance to show his early promise after missing time with an injury. It's nice having a solid 4 like Anthony, Mayer, Teel and Bleis. I'm pretty sure at least one will end up underperforming, but I feel confident 3 will do well or 2 very well. I also like the next tier of Rafaela, Abreu, Cespedes and maybe one from Wikelman + Perales. I'm not as high on Yorke as soxprospects.com is, but he still has promise. (I put him tier 3.) I really like Anthony more, and our CF/RF need is now higher than SS/2B.

From 2021-2023, only 8 players in the minors had more PAs and a higher OPS than E Valdez at .889 in 1221 PAs. (One was Grissom at .902 and 1290 PAs) His splits seem to be a major concern: v R/vL 2023: .920/.703 2022: 1.206/.868 2021: .895/.713

EValdez does have 49 innings at 1B in the minors. Maybe he could play 1B vs RHPs while Casas DHs, and Devers plays 1B vs LHps, while Casas gets his 10+ days off from Cora.

Was it his 3.26 ERA that hurt, so much?

Any word on why the Mom was detained?

Taking reps at 1B will not help him at 3B, but will anything? He's had flashes of average or even plus D for some stretches. I'm not sure if it is a lack of focus, footwork, yips ow whatever, but he seems to have an issue with throwing more than the glove or range factors. I think he could become a plus on D at 1B, very quickly, but I think Casas deserves at least one more season to see if he can improve on D at first. Since Cora loves resting guys 10 games or more, I'd try to keep Casas's bat in the line-up as much as possible by playing him at DH 10-20 times to lessen the full days off needed. Since we have no back-up 1Bman on the projected 26 man roster, it makes sense to try Devers there. Who knows, maybe he'll like it. Then, we can start with all the trade Yoshida posts.

BTV had him over 50 before, and 44 is pretty high, but certainly it could go over 60 or 70 with a strong 2023 at AAA. We must admit it could fall below 30, too.

It's kinda funny. I guess looking at all the failures like the mixed-mess of 2020, Martin Perez, Richards, Martin Perez, again, and Kluber, performances like Wacha and Hill in 2022, look like Cy Youngs. His record has been pretty good the last 2 years, and 127+ IP in both seasons is more than any other Sox pitcher from 2022-2023. His 5.7 bWAR from 2022-2023 is pretty damn good. Fangraphs is not as kind. Fangraphs on Wacha: (only 69 SP'ers had 250+ IP in the last 2 years- about 2 per team!) 4.1 fWAR 49th (0.4 below Stroman, 0.1 below Morton and 0.6 better than Nate. Giolito was at 2.8.) 3.26 ERA is 22nd! And that is what catches many fans eyes. (Better than Monty, Cease, Kirby, M Kelly, Strider and many more big name SP'ers.) 79 ERA- is 21st 4.23 xFIP is 52nd (slightly below Pivetta, Sandoval and Dunning & just ahead of Detmers.) 102 xFIP- is also 52nd 1.14 WHIP ranks 24th (better than Sonny Gray, Framber Valdez, Monty, Pablo Lopez, Nate and more.) 14.4% k%-BB% is 49th (near Stroman, Kelly and Singer) One could ask, why so many write him off, while pumping up Giolito for his GS and IP. 2022-2023 346 IP Giolito (21st) This does have real value, but pitching well matters, too. 262 IP Wacha (64th) GS 63 Giolito (17th) 5.5 IP per GS 47 Wacha (65th) 5.6 IP per GS fWAR 4.1 Wacha 2.8 Giolito (and fangraphs is known for adding a lot of value for IP)

If we aren't going to try hard to win in 2024, I would not make a top prospect trade, until we see more from these kids and guys like Grissom, Rafaela, Abreu, Wong and if Story is bouncing back to his old form.

You could be right, but there could come a time, when we say, "I wish we'd have traded Mayer, when his stock was high." Of course, he could blow away the $44M value BTV gives him, too.

I can understand giving up on Schreiber. He may have just been a flash in the pan in '22. He only had 31 IP in MLB in the 3 prior seasons, combined. His 3.86 ERA and 4.52 FIP in 2023 could be who he really is, but he still had a 10.2 K/9 rate. It was his 4.8 BB rate and 1.2 HR/9 that hurt in '23. He did miss time in June, due to an injury, and was at 2.12/3.14 before going on the IL in mid May. 4.30/4.69 July 25 to Sept 12. 6.75/7.46 Sept 13-Oct 1 (last 7 games) Opening Day to Sept 13: 3.38/4.03 .688 OPS Against in 40 IP (.296 BAbip with an awful D behind him) 20 BB/ 45 K 4 HR

Agreed. I mentioned trading Mata not DFA'ing him. Yes, we have no real back-up 1Bman, although I still think it's time to at least give devers some reps at 1B to see how he looks. (Reyes or Grissom can play 3B, if devers is playing 1B as Casas rests or gets hurt.

Yes. Wacha may have looked okay, the year before, in terms of GS and IP, but he was not very good and was injured or inconsistent for many years, beforehand. He had not gone more than 127 IP since 2017, before giving us 127.1 in '22. He had a 5.05 ERA and 4.47 FIP in '21 and 6.62/5.25 in '20. To me, that screams reclamation more than Giolito or Kluber (not Richards.) Maybe a better choice of words could be used for Hill, but at that age, almost everyone is considered a risk, if not a reclamation project. Yes, he had 32 GS in '21 with a 3.84 ERA and 4.34 FIP, so in the short term history, he was not technically "reclamation," but his injury history has been well documented for many years. 4 GS in 2015 w BOS (injured almost all season) 20 GS in '16 25 in '17 24 in '18 13 in '19 8 out of 12 in '20 31 in '21 26 for BOS in '22 was the second most since 2008 (15 years,) so yes, a reclamation project in my eyes.

Looks about right. We may also try to trade someone to make room for the next FA, assuming there is one. Trading out-of-options Mata makes sense, but the return may be near nothing. Slaten may be returned via Rule 5 rules, but we will wait until at least ST to decide on him. Bobby Dee might be on the list, too, but near the bottom, I suppose.

No, they did better than Richards, Kluber and Perez I & II, as stated twice.

So, trade Story? (soxprospects has Story at 2B, Mayer at SS and Grissom at DH in '25.) Is that Zack Kelly as SP? No Schreiber, Fitts or Bernardino love?

Maybe not all 7.

Certainly, understandable.

True. It was still weird how the lower contract signings that looked like reclamation projects did better than the two $10M guys and Martin Perex I & II.

I found this on Pedro... The Red Sox signed Martinez almost immediately to a six-year, $75 million extension that included a $17.5 million option for 2004. Martinez's overall body of work over those seven seasons with Boston? A 117-37 record with a 2.52 ERA and 1,683 strikeouts in 1,383 2/3 innings.

Indeed. JH's biggest blunder- way worse than Lester, Beltre, DLowe or anyone else.

Indeed, and discussion is not necessarily worrying.

SS: Reyes 2B: Grissom Full throttle!

I'm just fed up with these high risk signings. It might be nice, if we got one right, every now and again. It's weird how the two that did okay (Wacha and Hill) made less than Richards, Kluber and Giolito and about the same or less than Martin Perez I & II.