moonslav59

I wish we extended all three, but it's not like we never extended good to great players. We actually did extend Bogey- just not twice, and the opt out hurt. We extended Pedro & Schilling. We extended papi many times. We extended Beckett & Porcello. We extended Bogey & Sale. We extended Devers. I'm sure I missed a few other. We rightly did not extend Ellsbury and a few others that declined after leaving us. It's not like we've gotten it wrong, every time, but feel that Betts was in a class by himself and demanded extra attention and resolve to get it done. JH chose Bogey & Sale over Betts. He was never going to do all three, IMO.

Agreed, and I mentioned this in that post where I spoke about contorting ourselves trying to figure out the budget stuff and where the money saved went.

Well said. I think this kid will improve.

If the deal was made to save JH $10M, and the money is not spent, it makes the trade worse. I don't think that is a silly position to take. I understand that if the budget is set at a set number between $10-20M below the tax line, dumping $10M of Sale's contract means we have $10M more to spend than otherwise, but in the overall view, spending up to the tax line means we spent Sale's money "saved," and if it spent well, it's a plus to the trade.

Yes, and he did not have TJS until after the extension. I saw it like this. They extended him to $145M/5, which if healthy would be a steal. I think they felt a TJS was likely and that he'd be worth $145M/4, even if he missed a full season. While $38M x 4 was a lot of money for a great SP'er back in 2019, it was not absurd, and certainly is not, now. (Ages 30-34) I can understand those who disliked the extension. He was already showing signs that TJS was near, and sometimes, it takes 18 months to get back to form, that could be 1.5 to 2 seasons missed depending on the timing of the TJS.

I get that, and am hopeful Giolito does max out in 2024. However, this matters, too: 2022-2023: bWAR/ERA(ERA+)/FIP 6.0/4.33 (101)/4.22 Pivetta 3.3/4.89 (86)/ 4.70 Giolito People talk about the great start of the 2023 season by Giolito as a sign he can still be very good, well take a look see: Giolito in first 19 GS or 2023: 112 IP: 17 HRs/ 34 BB/ 117 K 3.45 ERA 4.18 FIP Some long stretches by Nick: 2023: 97 IP (8 GS/20 RP) 13 HR/31 BB/135 Ks 3.05 ERA 3.27 FIP 2022: first 16 GS 95 IP/ 10 HR/ 32 BB/ 91 Ks 3.23 ERA 3.67 ERA 2021: first 11 GS 60 IP/ 4 HR/ 28 BB/ 68 Ks 3.77 ERA 3.27 FIP (Larger sample size in '21: first 17 GS) is close to Gio's 2023 numbers, too. 92 IP/ 13 HR/ 42 BB/ 109 K 4.09 ERA 4.10 FIP It looks like Pivetta has had some very nice stretches in all 3 of his last 3 seasons. All compare nicely with Giolito's stretch in 2023. The problem is, Nck has never done this for a full season, like Giolito did from 2019 and 2021, but that was 3 and 5 years ago. Do we really know Gio will return to that form for all of 2024. That being said, I do like Gio more than Pivetta, due to his IP numbers and non stop GS'd, but I'm not so sure about his ability to pitch way better than Nick in 2024. Nick has shown some high level skills for 15-19 game stretches. Some cherry-picked longer stretches by Nick: Nick '21: first 23 GS/ 4.20 ERA/ 4.17 FIP (124 IP) '22: first 25 GS/ 4.24 ERA/ 3.98 FIP (142 IP) '23: last 28 G w 8 GS: 3.05 ERA/ 3.27 FIP (97 IP) Lucas '19: first 25GS/3.20/3.20 (153 IP) '21: all 31 GS/3.53/.3.79 (179 IP)

I wonder, if we had increased that "famous" $200M/8 offer to $220 or even 240/8, if Mookie would have taken it, with his mom's blessing. The extension offered to Bogey does seem like a slap in te face, but in all fairness, that year was after the 3 years beyond the opt out year (2023,) when Bogey would be 33 years old. While Bogey's OPS+ had remained pretty steady until 2024, his OPS declined and RBI/SLG had shown some serious decline: OPS+: 135 ('18)> 139>128>129>131 ('22) OPS: .883>.939>.867>.863>.833>.790 SLG: .522>.555>.502>.493>.456>..440 RBI: 103>122>41 (2020)>79>73>58 2018-2019: .300 56 220 (1278 PA) .914 OPS (137 OPS+) 2021-2022: .301 38 152 (1234 PAs) .848 OPS (130 OPS+) To me, it's not a slam dunk Bogey will be worth $25-30M from ages 34 to whatever. I wish we found a way to keep him, but I also see we have a superior defensive SS on the roster for the next 4 years, and we'd either have to play him at 2B or move Bogey to 2B, against his wishes.

I like this list. If the budget is rigid, Gray is #1, although ERod's AAV is lower.

Fangraphs Projected 2024 WAR: C: 0.8 McGuire (9th best)/0.1 Wong Pretty harsh on Wong 1B: 3.0 Casas (2) 2B: 2.3 Grissom (3) WOW! 3rd best WAR on everyday player list! SS: 1.7 Story (T5) Kinda low, to me. 3B: 4.7 Devers (1) LF: 1.7 O'Neill (T5) CF: 1.3 Duran (T7) RF: 1.3 Abreu (T7) DH: 1.9 Yoshida (4) OF: 0.7 Refsnyder (10) IF: 0.5 EValdez (11) UT: 0.3 Rafaela (12) IF: 0.2 Reyes (13) Pitchers: 2.5 Bello (169 IP) 2.4 Giolito (181) 2.0 Pivetta (161) 1.8 Houck (142) 1.6 Crawford (145) 1.0 Martin (66) 0.9 Jansen (64) 0.7 Whitlock (68) 0.5 Wink (67) 0.4 Walter (28) weird 0.3 Schreiber (64) 0.2 Murphy (60), Bernardino (58), Mata (64), Criswell (39) 0.1 Campbell (48) 0.0 Slaten (55), Weissert (44), Llovera (35), Kelly (31), Jacques (28) 0.0 Guerrero (24), Weiss (19), Castillo (17), Fitts (9) & Liu (9)

MLB.com gives the "best fits" for these 11 remaining FAs: Snell- LAA Bellinger- CHC Monty- NYY Hader- TEX Chapman- SFG (another article says TOR) Imanaga- BOS JD Martinez- AZ Hoskins- WSH Soler- TOR Stroman- BAL Teoscar- NYM MLB.com's first 2024 Power Rankins: 1. ATL 2. LAD 3. TEX 4. BAL 5. PHI 6. HOU 7. TBR 8. NYY (15th best in '23) 9. AZ 10. TOR (4 of the top 10 are from the ALE! Also, 3 of top 8. 11. SEA 12. NYM (why?) 23rd best in '23 13. CHC 14. MIL 15. CIN 16. SDP 17. MIN 18. STL (25th best in '23) 19. BOS (19th best record in '23) 20. DET 21. Marlins 22. Giants 23. Guardians 24. Angels 25. Royals 26. Pirates 27. White Sox 28. Nationals 29. Rockies 30. A’s

Please, sign him quickly!

soxprospects.com podcast talked about the Sale trade. Some interesting points: 1. Grissom had a collision, last year and missed a few games, but no injury was reported. They said maybe it affected his production and defense. 2. They think maybe the Grissom addition "MIGHT" free up the idea of trading a middle IF depth on the farm (Mayer or Yorke?) They question how the team sees Yorke in their future. 3. If we get 6 good years from Grissom, the trade is a great one. 4. Sale's velo decreased as the year went on, and that was worrisome, but his upside potential seems to be worth more than $10M/1. He will face easier opponents, too. On Giolito: 1. The optout is about the same as a QO, so if he does well, he'll say no to the option, and we can offer hima QO and reep the benefits, if he says no. 2. If he does poorly, it will hurt us. 3. His fastball results dropped almost every month in 2023. 4. He has good upside and has several seasons that match or better Monty's best seasons at 1/2 to 1.3 the cost.

LOL. Which one or two would you have wanted, if only 1 or 2?

I guess the pro-Giolito people point to 2019 through 2021, his nice first half of 2023 and his age of 29 as major factors in his support. I'm not so sure his last 2 years are an outlier. Let's hope we finally get one of the reclamation projects to work for us. $19.25M x 2 is a lot of money for a high risk pitcher, but he does take the b all every 5th day, which has real value. (Wacha and Hill kinda worked.)

My choices: I'd have paid Yamamoto what he got with LA and Nola with PHI, but I doubt they'd have come here at equal cost, so I'm not listing them. (Yamamoto would be my #1 choice and Nola would maybe be my #4- after ERod and before Lugo.) Yes 1. Gray $25M x 3 2. ERod $20M x 4 3. Lugo $15M x 3 Maybe 4. Giolito $19.25M x 2 5. Wacha $16M x 2 6. Montas $14M x 1

Yamamoto $325M/12 A Nola $172M/7 E Rod $80M/4 S Gray $75M/3 S Lugo $45M/3 Giolito $38.5M/2 Wacha $32M/2 Mahle $22M/2 Montas $14M/1 Flaherty $14M/1 None of the above I tried to post a poll, but I could not get it to work.

Updated Sox CBT Budget for 2024 (from cots) 29.1 Devers 23.3 Story 19.3 Giolito 18.0 Yoshida 17.0 to ATL for Sale 16.0 Jansen 8.00 Pivetta (arb est) 7.50 Martin 5.85 O'Neill (arb est) 4.69 Whitlock 2.00 McGuire (arb est) 2.00 Refsnyder 1.50 Schreiber (arb est) 1.00 Criswell 0.75 Hosmer (0.76 in 2025 and then it's done) 17.0 Est Player Benefits 9.69 Pre-arb players 5.22 Injured List 2.25 40 man roster in minors 1.67 0-3 year bonus pool TOTAL: $191.78M $45.22 under Tax Line If the reports are true that we are looking to trim more salaries, whether to make room for other salary or to line JH's pocket, maybe we might try to trade Jansen (16.0), Pivetta (8.0), Martin (7.5), Refsnyder (2.0) or McGuire (2.0) and replace them with in system players or not.

Grissom has only 64 games in MLB under his belt, and those are spread out over 2 seasons. His 236 PAs are 106 more than needed to graduate from official rookie status. I wonder where he'd be placed on the Sox prospects rankings, if he did not graduate- maybe... 1. Anthony 2. Mayer 3. Teel 4. Rafaela 5. Bleis 6. Grissom (maybe as high as 4 or 5) 7. Yorke 8. Perales 9. Abreu 10. Wikelman or Cespedes

Agreed. However, giving details, assuming they made a fair offer, might be perceived as throwing Betts under the bus, and then we'd hear fans saying "this is why nobody wants to play for Boston." I doubt we made a formal offer of $300M, but maybe Betts knew that's about what we were prepared to offer, but never did, because the agent said "not enough." The one consistent thing about the Sox, under Henry is the idea that we are very firm on the valuing of our own players as they approach or reach free agency, and we never seem to budge above the amount we set, no matter how much the market changes. It's worked a number of times, most notably with Pedro and Ellsbury, but also with some less glitzy players like Porcello. We traded some before they became FAs that worked out fine- as well, like Nomar, Manny, Beckett, Price, Lackey, Vaz. There is a sizable list of ones that did not work out so well with us, but none like Betts.

There is so much gray area in these negotiations. Sometimes numbers are "floated," but no firm offer is ever made. For example, Betts' agent might ask, what numbers are you thinking about, and the Sox might have said, "somewhere around $300M/10," and the agents says that's not enough. Maybe the agent never countered with a price they'd accept, and the Sox never tried to find out what price it would take, but my guess is that the agent said a ballpark number Betts wanted, and the Sox never bothered to up their initial amount floated. End of negotiations. Just my guess. I could be way off on what happened, but this could explain the Merloni statement, without contradicting the Betts statement that no offer was given, as no formal offer was actually given.

The bad D reports are for SS. I think he will be an average defender at 2B, at worst, and could easily be a plus by season's end. Our D was horrible, last year, at 2B. I can't see him being worse than the carousel we watched, last season. We were 29th at 2B in Outs Above Average at -13. Bal was 30th at -14. -4 EValdez -3 Urias -2 Reyes -2 Kike -2 Arroyo -1 Turner Way different sample sizes on this list. Their success rates tell a better story on who was the worst: -7% Turner (gone) -4% Kike (gone) -4% Reyes -3% Urias (gone) -3% Valdez -1% Arroyo (gone) Grissom has been at -4% from 2022-2023, combined, but the sample size is small. In 368 innings at SS, his DRS is -3. (It's -7 at SS in 168 innings.) UZR/150 -7.6 at 2B (-0.9 Range, -0.7 Error Rate, -0.5 DP Rate) -52.5 at SS Maybe I'm being a homer thinking he can be a plus on D at 2B.

I really enjoyed watching Sale pitch, too. It was sad knowing these injuries were frustrating to him as much as us. He was one of the top 3 Sox pitchers I have ever seen (Pedro & Clemens.) I liked the extension we gave him. Not many did or will admit it, now. I felt better about him being ready to pitch in 2024 than I did before '23, '22, '21 and '20. I like this Grissom guy, though, and if Sale does not pitch much, next season, I'll feel better about this trade, but I will miss Sale.

We don't have many big arb raises, though. cots estimated salary bumps 2023>2024: 5.4>8.0 Pivetta (3rd of 3 arbs) 1.2>2.0 McGuire (2 of 3) .75>1.5 Schreiber (1 of 3) (We traded Dugo and Urias before their last arbs.) This looks like the least amount of arb raises in a long time for the Sox.

The same, last winter, despite spending a ton. One caveat about 2024, the devers extension is not counted.

I have to think, if nobody has told their side of the story in detail, by now, we may never know.