Maxbialystock

I'm not disposed to defend JH, but on the other hand it's worth noting the following-- 1. We know our front office are idiots because they demonstrated it in the last postseason when they dumped Sale and $17M to the Braves and brought in Giolito for $18M x 2. 2. Kennedy and company aren't the only dummies out there. The Mets, for example, spent $318M (to our $190M) to get 8 more wins--89 vs our 81. And the Astros spent $255M to get 7 more wins. The Braves, who outsmarted us on the Sale deal, spent $236M to get 8 more wins. The Rangers, Jays, and Giants all had bigger payrolls and fewer wins than the Sox, and we know the Sox were stupid. 3. Meanwhile, the Padres spent $18M less than the Sox and won 12 more games, the Mariners $42M less with 4 more wins, the Royals $67M less with 5 more wins, the Orioles $80M less with 10 more wins, the Guardians $83M less with 11 more wins, and the Tigers $91M less with 5 more wins. Oh, and the Rays spent $101M less than the Sox and had 1 fewer wins.

The OP is complete horsehockey because I positively, absolutely do not need advice on whom to root for. In fact, I feel empowered to change sides in the middle of games and/or series. I loved the first round--8 teams (of the 12 in the postseason) who all played in 3 game series with just 4 home teams and therefore no traveling from one park to another. Perfect. Now it's 8 more teams--the winners of the first four series vs the 4 teams who finished with the two best records in the AL and the two best records in the NL--playing 5 game series. I also loved the first day of the second round when all 8 teams played, but then MLB and ABC/ESPN decided to go with just 2 games a day, which means rest days without traveling. I also loved that the home team lost 3 of the 4 first round series. That reconfirms several important realities: 1) all 12 teams in the postseason are pretty close in winning percentages, ranging from 60% for the Dodgers to 53% for the lowdown, no good, rotten, stinking Royals and Tigers, both of whom made it to the ALDS and both of whom are tied--the Tigers with the Guardians and the Royals with the Yankees--at 1 game apiece; 2) home field advantage is a myth; 3) almost anyone except the White Sox had a shot at winning the WS this year. And this, which I find irresistable. Of the 8 teams in the Division Series now ongoing, 4 (Padres $162M, Royals $115M, Tigers $104M, and Guardians $93M) spent less on their payrolls than the Red Sox did. In other words, if John Henry wants to improve the Sox next season, he could do worse than fire Sam Kennedy and company (including Breslow of course).

I rooted for the Phillies back in 1980 when I was at USAWC and they won the WS in part because they had Pete Rose.

Agree defense is cheap and that just maybe they are looking for cheap solutions. On the other hand--and thanks to talksox and all the insights here--we know that the Sox badly need pitching, especially starters, and probably some righty bats. Thanks to you and moonslav and others, we also know that the Sox will have a lot of "under control" talent for trade bait this winter. As I've already said on this thread, the Fenway attendance--after throwing out 2020 and 2021, both of which were affected by covid--has dropped by 4,000/game for 3 straight seasons. If we assume 4,000 x 81 games x $100, that's $32M less income, which might also be matched by TV and internet (mlb.com) revenues. Of course, we also know that Sox fans can be just plain stupid. Easily the worst Sox team in the JH era was the 2012 Sox, who finished 69-93. Their average attendance was 37,567. The year before 2011, they also failed to make the postseason, and their average attendance was 37,703.

Agree. Moonslav and others have cited specific players and available dollars to invest, trade for, whatever. Others have chimed in. So we have a pretty good idea--and a lot of opinions--about what must be done. What Sam Kennedy says in October is utterly meaningless. Nevertheless, I can't help commenting on the Kennedy's comment that the defense, affected by the injury to Trevor Story, is what let the Sox down. This is absolute horsehockey because in fact Story did return in September and played absolutely superb defense for 18 games in which the Sox record was 8-10. I am not saying that defense makes no difference because I loved the way Story improved the infield defense. But I am saying pitching and hitting were bigger problems this season. And let's not forget that this was Story's 3d season with the Sox. Two seasons ago, 2022, when Story played in 94 games, the Sox had a worse won-lost record. More Story does not equate to more wins. By bringing up the defense and Story, Kennedy neatly bypassed the bigger reality that before the season began the Sox FO dumped Sale--and sent $17M with him to the Braves--and signed Giolito to a $19M x 2 contract. Giolito, I hasten to add, showed some of the signs/symptoms that Sale showed in 2019. Thanks to those two dumb moves, the actual Sox rotation--Pivetta, Houck, Crawford, Bello, Criswell, Winckowski, Whitlock, Fitts, et al--were paid less than the closer Jansen ($16M). We also know that the FO did little to improve the bullpen. But they did bring in Bailey, and he was enough to actually improve the Sox pitching in 2024.

All due respect because you in fact have better insights than I do, but that is utter horsehockey. Betts went to the Dodgers because they could afford the contract he was going to insist upon and the Sox could not. You and others keep forgetting --so I have to keep reminding you--that in 2019 the Sox already had the biggest payroll in MLB. And, if they simply wanted to maintain the status quo, they were going to have to increase Mookie's salary (then $20M) by at least $10M--and for a long time--and find and offer big contracts to two first line starters to replace Price and Sale while also continuing to pay Price and Sale's existing big contracts. Two years later, the Sox still had the 5th highest payroll in MLB without having the services of Betts, Price, or Sale--and of course without having two first line starters to replace Price and Sale. On the other hand, we also know that for three straight seasons--2022, 2023, and 2024--the Sox attendance has averaged about 32,600 per game, which is about 4,000 to 5,000 less per game than 2003 through 2019. It's possible Sox fans stayed away from Fenway because of Mookie's absence. On the other hand, one can argue that Sox fans, especially those spending major bucks to go to games at Fenway, are just ignorant. In 2012 when the Sox had an absolutely miserable team that finished 69-93, average attendance was 37,567. The next year when the Sox won the AL East and then the WS, the average attendance dropped 2,600 to 34,972.

Exactly.

Well said. The OP does an excellent job of describing Crawford's faults. On the other hand, Almost every Sox team in the John Henry era had a starter who ate innings (183.2) and had a so-so ERA (4.36). In the fantastic 2018 season, Rick Porcello pitched 191.1 innings with an ERA of 4.28--and was paid $21M to do so.

Of course they are. I was probably Yoshida's biggest booster/fan this year because I argued (and gave 5 reasons) why Cora should play him, which he did. Moreover, Yoshida had a couple of pretty good months in July and August (OPS's close to .900). But I agree the Sox should try to get rid of him, even if they have to pay some or even most of his remaining salary. As everyone has already said, Yoshida is a lefty bat on a team with too many lefty bats, plus he's a contact hitter with not much power, plus he can't play the outfield (no range, no arm).

I think anyone is tradeable right now if for no other reason than that, with Mayer, Anthony, Teel, and Campbell just about MLB-ready--to say nothing of Devers, Duran, Casas, Abreu, Story, Wong, O'Neill, Refsnyder (maybe), Yoshida, Rafaela, et al already on the active roster-- the Sox in 2025 are almost certain to have more players than they need. You have made that case repeatedly, and I agree with you. Plus it is unarguable that the Sox need pitching, especially starters, and one or more good righty bats. With that said, there is still the risk of making a dumb deal., which Breslow has already demonstrated he can do. Last year he dumped Sale--with $17M in cash--and picked up Giolito. You have also gone to the trouble of showing there is money that could be spent if JH is willing. And I have reminded everyone that, after 17 straight seasons (2003-2019) of averaging roughly 36,000 in attendance, the Sox had zero attendance in 2020, 21,000 in 2021, and 32,500 per season in 2022-2024. That attendance tells JH that the fans, the ones who actually pay all the bills and make the Sox worth $4.5B or so, are getting tired of not making the postseason. Actually, I think the Sox fans who go to games at Fenway are actually pretty stupid anyway, but that's another story (which I've already told twice).

Completely agree. I would trade Anthony before Campbell because Anthony is a lefty bat.

Two surplus areas: outfielders and lefty bats. I would not hesitate to trade Abreu and/or Duran--but Duran only if the Sox get someone substantial in return.

Perhaps. He sure hasn't done much his first 3 seasons. On the other hand, we have absolutely seen him make a difference on defense, especially at SS and especially on DP's. Plus he is a righty bat who, before he came to the Sox, hit pretty well. Yoshida, on the other hand, is a lefty bat, which we don't need, and a liability on defense and must therefore DH. I would not hesitate to pay 2/3 of his salary to go elsewhere.

I think Story made a strong case for improving the defense. But, guess what? When Story returned in September and played in the final 18 games, during which his defense was superb and of great value to the Sox, they went 8-10. And those 10 losses were mostly because the hitting went south. The average runs scored by the Sox over those 18 games (in which Story played) in September was 3.83. Also, my point is that the Sox need to be among the top 5 in MLB in runs scored to be competitive. Moreover, I honestly don't think they can get into the top 5 if their lineup is dominated with lefty bats as in fact it was this season. 2021 is worth mentioning because it was the last time the Sox made it to the postseason, when they also made it to the ALCS after beating the Yankees and RAys. The 2021 Sox were ranked 5th in MLB in runs scored and--wait for it--15th in team ERA!!!!!!! And guess where they were ranked in defense? 29th with the 2d most errors in MLB. So I strongly disagree with "rolling the dice" on hitting, especially when we know that Mayer, Anthony, and Teel are all lefty hitters.

I think I agree in general with the notion that almost anyone should be tradeable, and that includes the presumed big guns still in the farm system--Mayer, Anthony, Teel, Campbell, whoever. My fundamental disagreement with moonslav and just about everyone else on this board is the overwhelming emphasis on pitching, pitching, and more pitching. The case for pitching seems obvious because Sale is gone, Giolito is a huge question mark, and the current Sox rotation is basically a bunch of no-names: Houck, Crawford, Pivetta, Bello, and whoever. Closer Jansen is definitely a big name, but . . . Interestingly, however, the 2024 Sox team ERA finished 17th in MLB. The best Sox team ever, 2018, was ranked 8th in team ERA, and DD spent a king's ransom to put them together. The 2013 WS-winning Sox team's ERA was 14th in MLB. The 2007 WS-winning Sox team ERA was 2d in MLB. And the 2004 Sox team ERA was 11th. So my first point is that I challenge the notion that the Sox pitching is a complete disaster and needs massive infusions of expensive talent--any and/or all of which could be immediately wasted as it was last February/March when Giolito went on the freaking IL for the whole season. Plus let's not forget the very costly loss of Price and Sale in 2019 and after. And my second point is that the Sox hitting this year was almost as bad as the pitching. Anyone care to guess where the Sox were ranked in runs scored in the four WS-winning seasons? In 2004 they were 1st, in 2007 4th, in 2013 1st, and in 2018 1st. And this year, 2024, they were 8th in runs scored. So my final point is that the Sox need to focus on hitting almost as much as on pitching. Moreover, the Sox need a couple of good righty bats because Fenway Park favors righty bats. Indeed, the Sox finished 43-38 on the road and 38-43 at home in large part because of their over-reliance on lefty bats. Had the Sox finished 43-38 at Fenway Park this season, they would have made it to the postseason--where I believe they would very likely have lost in the first round. When you look at the 2004, 2007, 2013, and 2018 Sox stats, you see that the leaders in total bases were overwhelmingly either righty bats or switch hitters. Do I need to remind one and all that 3 of the 4 best Sox prospects--Mayer, Anthony, Teel, and Campbell--are lefty bats? Campbell is the lone righty bat.

Agree of course. Plus Soto is another lefty bat and another outfielder. Despite his excellent WAR of 7.9, I do not believe he would be a difference maker for the Sox. On top of that is your point that the Mets and Yankees will bid him up.

I definitely blame Breslow for dumping Sale--along with $17M for his salary--and picking up Grissom, but I think the OP makes some points about positive things Breslow has done. Plus the word is that no experienced or highly qualified CBO wanted to work for an owner who right now seems directionless. We know why JH hired DD--to spend money and make the Sox real contenders, which happened in 2016, 2017, and especially 2018. But in 2019 the Sox still had the biggest payroll in MLB, didn't make the playoffs, and it was obvious DD needed even more money to keep Mookie, etc. So out went DD and in came Chaim Bloom, fresh the Rays, who seem especially good at developing good players while keeping the payroll in the bottom 10 or even the bottom 5 of MLB. CB had four years, which wasn't nearly enough to fix the Sox system, but during those years one thing was clear: no more big contracts for top of the line starters like Price, Sale, and others before them. The OP is dead right in giving Breslow tons of credit for bringing in Bailey as a crucial first step to fixing Sox pitching. Moreover, it's also obvious that JH decided 5 years ago to stop spending big for starters developed elsewhere. Old Red seems to think that fixing this team is just the easiest thing in the world, and he is dead wrong.

Fascinating about your daughter who clearly is passionate about MLB. I have four daughters, all of them grown up (youngest is 47) and none is a MLB fan although three played softball in HS. I believe I can speak for all four of them in condemning Trevor Bauer, whose sexual assault was investigated and the penalty concurred in by the players union in 2021. After arbitration, his penalty was reduced from 324 games to 194 games, and Bauer was reinstated. However, the Dodgers DFA'd Bauer in Jan 2023, and he has yet to be hired by another MLB team in the 2023 or 2024 seasons. As for the three Houston Astros, including Alex Cora, penalized for stealing signs, they did what so many MLB players (and coaches), including our own Dustin Pedroia, have done repeatedly over the years. It's a form of cheating, but a very popular one that has now been at least partly curtailed by the use of technology. That said, I'm positive every MLB team runs videos of opposing pitchers--and of their own pitchers--to see if they are "telegraphing" their pitches. In addition to that, every team tracks opposing pitchers' tendencies. Despite all those machinations, good stuff is still good stuff and usually prevails. See, for example Chris Sale, age 35, whom the Sox dumped off to the Braves--and gave them/him $17M in the bargain--and who is a candidate for the NL Cy Young award this season. To replace Sale, the Sox signed Giolito for 2 years and $38M--and he has yet to pitch a single inning for the Sox. So of course the Sox should sign Trevor Bauer and ignore his history of sexual assault.

You have absolutely no sense of history. John Henry ended the 86 year drought and then won 3 more WS's by hiring smart guys and underwriting one of the top 3 payrolls in MLB for roughly 20 seasons. JH hired DD after the 2015 season and let him spend, spend, spend to produce the 2018 Sox, the best team in Sox history. They still had the highest payroll in MLB in 2019 when they failed to make the postseason. Even worse, however, was that DD wanted a whole bunch more money to keep Mookie from the Dodgers--a far wealthier franchise than the Red Sox--and to replace Price and Sale while also continuing to pay them around $50M a year for not pitching. That's why DD got fired--there was absolutely no limit to the amount of payroll he wanted/needed to keep the Sox "competitive." People also forget that John Henry had MLB ownership experience before he bought the Sox in 2002 and that after buying the Sox he hired sabermetrics expert Bill James. Even though JH has shelled out a lot money for payrolls, he has also been interested in the cost per win. Thus was Chaim Bloom of the highly efficient (in terms of payroll cost per win) Tampa Bay Rays hired in 2019. But JH decided last year Chaim Bloom wasn't the right guy either and hired Breslow, Right now I think it's fair to say the Sox lack direction in terms of how much to spend on players. So allow me to hypothesize why. The 2012 Sox were dreadful and finished dead last in the AL East with an abysmal 69-93 record. Want to guess what their attendance was that season? 37,567, which is basically max attendance for Fenway Park. The next year, 2013, when the Sox won the AL East with a 97-65 record and then won the World Series, the attendance dropped to 34,979. Then it went back up to 36,494 in 2014, another losing season (71-91) and was 35,564 in 2015, also a losing season (78-84). Care to guess the Sox attendance in 2018, the best Sox season ever? Try 35,747. The next year, 2019, it went up slightly to 36,106 when the Sox failed to make the postseason but still had the highest payroll in MLB. Then came covid when attendance plummeted in both 2020 and 2021. Since then, for 3 straight seasons, the Sox have not made it to the postseason and have averaged about 32,500 in attendance all 3 seasons. While all of the above--winning 4 WS, having good attendance regardless of whether the Sox were winning 108 games in a season in 2018 or winning just 69 games in 2012--the overall value of the Red Sox franchise has risen to somewhere around $4B or $5B, compared to the $660M JH paid back in 2002. And this. Right now the best and by far the most exciting player on the Sox is Jarren Duran, whose WAR is 8.6, which the 5th highest in MLB. Duran is being paid the MLB minimum of $750K. The 2d highest Sox WAR, 3.7, belongs to Devers, who has played in 19 fewer games than Duran and is paid $31M/year for 10 years. 3d highest WAR is Abreu's 3.4, and he too is paid the MLB minimum. Ditto the next two, Rafaela's 2.7 WAR and Hamilton's 2.6 WAR, are worth the MLB minimum salary. Wong's WAR of 1.7, 7th best on the Sox, earns him the MLB minimum. Yoshida is paid I think $18M/year for 5 years and his WAR this year is 1.5. Story's WAR is 0.9 (which is fantastic for just 24 games) costs the Sox $22.5M. So, if you are JH and sitting on a proverbial gold mine worth $4B-$5B and you can see that the fans just don't care how good or bad the team is, why should you compete with the Dodgers for whoever--or the likes of Mookie, Price, Sale, etc, etc? Plus those WAR's on the 2024 Sox suggest that shelling out big bucks for anybody is just a waste of money. And I forgot to mention the pitching! 3 of the 4 top WAR's belong to Houck (3.7), Crawford (2.6), and Bello (1.7), and their total combined salary is less than $3M. The 4th starter, Pivetta, also has a WAR of 1.7 and he's paid $7.5M. And the closer Jansen, WAR 1.4, is paid $16M.

Wise words. Better than mine. Fraser might be right about what the Sox need, but he's an idiot about how to get pitching, whatever.

Much ado about nothing (or very little). I therefore love moonslav's comment that maybe Breslow will trade Abreu and Hamilton for a couple of nondescript, adequate, maybe even decent bullpen arms. Big freaking deal. In calculating what needs fixing on the Sox I like to look at their rankings in team runs scored and team ERA--that is, hitting and pitching, the two essentials of a MLB team. The 2024 Sox are ranked 9th in MLB in runs scored and need to be 5th or better to be competitive. Therefore the Sox hitting needs fixing as much as the Sox pitching and bringing back O'Neill won't be nearly enough to fix the Sox hitting. In fact, how many times have we all pointed out that his 31 dingers--most on the Sox--have resulted in just 61 rbi's, 4th most on the Sox? As for the Sox pitching, it's ranked 17th in MLB in team ERA. That's actually not terrible. Bailey has made a freaking difference. The monster 2018 Sox were 8th in team ERA, the 2019 also-ran Sox were 19th, the 2021 postseason (where they made it to the ALCS and were therefore better than the 2016 and 2017 Sox everyone stupidly claims were great Sox teams) Sox were 15th in team ERA, Last year's (2023) were 21st, and 2022's Sox were 25th in team ERA. So to me Sox team ERA only needs to be 10th to 15th to be competitive. Right now the Sox four best pitching WAR's belong to four starters: Houck 3.7, Crawford 2.5, Pivetta 1.8, and Bello 1.7. Their four ERA's are 3.12, 4.17, 4.21, and 4.49. And their ages are 28, 28, 31, and 25. Oh, and their IP (innings pitched) are 179, 179, 162, and 139. So, if we throw in THE GREAT GIOLITO, he of the $19M salary this year for doing absolutely nothing, the Sox already have (if they re-sign Pivetta\) a semi-decent rotation for 2025. Were I John Henry, I would make sure Breslow knows he ain't selling and/or trading the farm for still another expensive starter headed for TJ surgery (or the newer version Giolito and Whitlock underwent this year). Instead, I would tell him he could invest--via trade or money or both--in the bullpen. Moonslav is right. As for righty bats, O'Neill ain't enough. Plus two of the Sox biggest salaries--Devers and Yoshida--are already committed to lefty bats. I think there is some hope a healthy Story will hit next year. Meanwhile, headed for the Sox next season or the one after are lefty bats Mayer, Anthony, and Teel. Campbell bats righty, so maybe he will get priority. So, me, I'd be tempted to try to dump Yoshida by paying most of his remaining salary. And I would give serious consideration to trading away one or more of Mayer, Anthony, and Teel to get righty bats and/or pitching help.

I'm not sure I agree "best leadoff hitter" is an important title because to me it's Duran's WAR of 8.7, 4th best in MLB, that's the key stat because it values the whole player. Duran's 8.7 is more than double Devers' 3.7, which is the 2d best WAR on the Sox. That's a huge difference. Someone mentioned Mookie as the best Sox leadoff batter, and there too I would say, "you're missing the point. Mookie is better than a great leadoff player. He's a great all-around player." The one point I will concede is that all of those doubles, triples, stolen bases, etc suggest that leadoff is the right place in the batting order for Duran. Funny thing, however, is that, largely because of the Sox RISP disease this season, Duran has only scored 109 runs. The MLB leader with 130 runs scored? Shohei Ohtani, who also has 53 dingers and 56 stolen bases.

"He just gets outs, glorious, boring outs"--is definitely hype. In his later years Greg Maddux pitched to contact because he couldn't get the K's he had gotten in his earlier years. I think pitching to contact and especially contact that results in grounders is simply smart pitching. Unfortunately, I'm pretty sure that, virtually without exception, the top 20 pitching salaries in MLB today all belong to leaders in K's. K's are to pitchers what dingers are to hitters.

Well said. I'm sick and tired of reading about Sale/Giolito. We are 30 minutes from September 25, when the Sox will still be in the hunt for the postseason. They should have been eliminated by now, but won 4 straight, including tonight's extra inning game. Bello went 4 IP and the 7 Sox relievers did the other 6 IP. Error by Abreu should have been called on Rafaela--but it did not lead to a Jays run. Rafaela with the big 2 rbi hit in the 7th. I continue to believe that hitting and pitching are the keys to winning, but have to admit I think Story at SS has made a difference this month. On the season the Sox are now 14-9 in games in which Story has played.

The 2024 Sox have been surprisingly good in view of the preseason sabotage by the CBO Craig Breslow who dumped Sale and replaced him with Giolito (who was paid $19M to do nothing)--on top of which he sent $17M to the Braves to pay Sale's 2024 salary!!!! On the other hand, he also insisted on a new pitching coach, Bailey, who has definitely helped. The Sox best hitters and pitchers this year were pretty much the result of Chaim Bloom's stewardship.