Maxbialystock

Some great numbers/reminders up there. Thanks, moonslav.

Nothing wrong with that projection FWIW I agree with the criticism that in game 2 Tracy pulled Gray too soon. The Sox still lose the game badly however because their hitting and bullpen stunk in boh games. Back to the 85 wins. I'm not sure the hitting is fixable because I don't think JH wants to spend the money required to maintain excellent pitching and to acquire the requisite bats. I have said repeatedly I thought Breslow was right to dump Devers and not to meet Bregman's price $35M x 5 guaranteed. However, right now both look better than any Red Sox hitters because I don't see Contreras repeating this season, Anthony getting healthy and hitting like last year, Abreu/Rafaela improving, Story playing a full season, etc. If JH wants to fix the hitting I think he needs to add roughly $70M to the payroll. All that said, I enjoyed the heck out of this season despite the Sox worst September since 2011. A lot of the moves Breslow made were good ones, including hiring Tracy, who during the season would have always kept Grey (and did) in the game with just 70 pitches. Grey's postgame comments were right on.

Getting to the WS from the American League is helped by the fact that the Sox have the 3d best W-L record in the AL, the 3d best pitching staff in MLB, an above average defense--but, however, an offense, which lately been as inoffensive as one can br (OPS 651 in September). However, Rafaela and Contreras each played just 5 games in September. They played a lot more in July and August when the Sox OPS's were .765 and .791. I think the Sox have 7 decent to good hitters in Durbin, Story, Rutschman, Rafaela, Anthony, Abreu, and Contreras and the potential to match that July OPS if not August. Actually, I think the Yankees are the big stumbling block because they have easily the best pitching in MLB, a decent offense (better than ours), and a 3-1 bashing of the Sox just a month ago in Yankee Stadium.

Agree the hitting/scoring is lousy, especially this month heading to NYC to play the Yankees, whose pitching and hitting are better. Breslow wasn't awful last winter or o/a August 3. He picked up Contreras, who has had a better season than Bregman last season, as well as Durbin, who's nifty at 3b and almost decent at bat. Returning were Story, who had a solid season at bat, Anthony, who was the Sox best hitter in July and August, Abreu and Rafaela who both hit well this season, and Duran, who has had a lousy season but is ranked 3d on the Sox in dingers, 4th in total bases and rbi's, 5th in runs scored, and 1st in SB's. Plus he brought in All-Star catcher Rutschman and good hitting (this season with the Nationals) infielder Mead. I'm not saying Breslow is blameless, but am saying he made some good additions. Injuries to Anthony, Story, Contreras, Mead, and Rafaela have not helped. While I have touted not re-signing Bregman and bringing in Durbin at 3b, right now it looks like the Cubs got a good deal for $35M x 5. This is Bregman's 11th season (he's 32) and this was is 3d best season. His WAR of 5.8 is 10th best in MLB. Durbin's is 4.4, 32d, and his salary ($750K) is 1/50th of what the Cubs are paying Bregman. While I'm happy to defend Bregman and don't see the Sox as "flops," I'm very disappointment in the Sox hitting this month. Their collective OPS is .651.

Funny thing, but when healthy the Sox have decent/good bats at RF, CF, LF 1B, 3B, and C. That 20 yr old SS--Arias--at Worcester could be another. That leaves DH and 2b. Those slots should be filled by pricey Story and Yoshida, but really are not. Story will get $25M next year and Yoshida $18M. Duran's getting paid $8M this season. Now go back to the other 7 for their salaries: Contreras $18M, Rutschman $7M, Anthony $3M, Rafaela $2M, Abreu $800K, Durbin $700K, and Arias $700K--a total of $32M. Story and Yoshida @ $43M will make Breslow relluctant to go for another good/pricey bat. If Story can match last year's .743 OPS and play good defense at 2b (which he has done before for the Sox), he would be #8 and I think Yoshida still has potential to be a decent DH. His OPS after 4 seasons is .759--.774 vs lefties (!!!) and .743 vs righties. So I think Breslow won't be wrong if he is reluctant to spend big for a bat. Last year the Sox were 7th in MLB in runs scored and 9th in OPS. Here's a comparison of 2025 and 2027 projected OPS's-- 2005 OPS's 2027 Projected OPS's LF Duran .774 Anthony .825 CF Rafaela .708 Rafaela .780 RF Abreu .786 Abreu .775 3b Bregman .821 Durbin .721 SS Story .741 Arias .750 2b Assorted .650 Story .740 1b Assorted .800 Contreras .800 C Narvaez/Wong .650 Rutschman/Gasper .750 DH Assorted .775 Yoshida .760

Good line, good song.

Indeed.

They are freaking amazing.

Will wonders never cease. The Sox hitting/scoring was beyond moribund, but 22 year old Anthony decided to fix that.

I pretty much agree Contreras would help but not save the Sox. On the other hand, Anthony just might. What a game! I said the Sox were dead, dead, dead--but it was a little early to look for change in their pockets. Breslow definitely blew it on getting hitters, but you gotta love the Sox pitching.

Gorgeous play by Kiner-Falefa to make good on Wong's off target throw to nail the Cubs basestealer.

And one no baloney RISP single for 2 runs--for which I'm taking full credit.

Heckuva double by Anthony!

Nope. He still has pain and can't swing a bat. He's not even sure he can play in the Yankees series.

I sure hope you are right, but the Sox just scored their first run since Wednesday but guess what? Anthony made it home on an error. Unearned run and yet again no rbi.

The lineup is busted, period. I expect the Sox to lose all 3 games to the Cubs and both games to the Yankees. you want fun as a Red Sox fan, think back about the good times this season and hope Breslow fixes the hitting for next season. Do I think a healthy Contreras would help? Sure I do. But no way, no how can one player fix a prostrate lineup.

I don't at all disagree with the expectation that the Sox should be in the conversation. In fact I fully agree they flopped in 2022, 2023, and 2024. But I chalk that up to a new CBO (inexperienced) and JH's intent to spend less on the payroll. I also chalk that up to his enthusiasm at the end of Moneyball for hiring what he thought was the best GM/CBO in MLB precisely because the A's won so much in 2002 with a low payroll. Right now the Sox are 12th in payroll and appropriately headed for the postseason. However, right now I expect them to lost all three to the Cubs and the first 2 games to the Yankees because their hitting seems broken beyond repair (this season). So, yes I'm also disappointed with this team even though their pitching is terrific. Overall, as I keep saying, JH has my support because of ending the curse and winning 4 WS. He is trying something new with Breslow and it is working on the pitching side but not on the hitting side.

Actually, we're not so far apart in terms of expectations. I think the post-Dombrowski downslide was a combination of descending payroll, new and inexperienced CBO (Bloom), and, I believe, JH's intent to try a different way. At the end of the movie Moneyball the brand new owner (JH) of the Sox tries to hire Billy Beane (with a record breaking salary offer) to duplicate the sabermetrics genius that made the Oakland A's so successful in 2002. As it turned out, JH, who already had MLB and MiLB ownership experience, pretty much stayed with a high payroll and gave Epstein a pretty free rein which in fact led--thanks to his smart GM/CBO's--to those 4 WS wins and especially 2018, the best Sox team ever DD as CBO and the Sox with the highest payroll in MLB. In 2019 the Sox still had the highest payroll in MLB and didn't even make the postseason, mostly because the pitching collapsed. Also by 2019 the smartest program in MLB belonged to the Tampa Bay Rays, who had their ups and downs but consistently made it to the postseason with low payrolls. If you're JH you see tons of examples of high payroll-low performance teams out there. The Mets especially, but the Yankees, owners of 27 WS titles, are not the Yankees of old despite consistently high payrolls. True, the Dodgers have a big payroll and consistently terrific teams--and their CBO was the mastermind of the Rays before the Dodgers hired him. Even so, they have just 2 WS to JH's 4 since 2003. Back to not signing more big bats last offseason. Do you remember Devers and his .900 OPS last year with the Sox when as DH he never missed a game? He left in June and the Sox took off and finally made it back to the postseason. They dumped his $35M x infinite years and got better. Smart. They also didn't re-sign Bregman for $35M x 5--which the Cubs with their 7th biggest payroll were happy to do. The Cubs are having a pretty good year--as is Bregman with his 14th best WAR in MLB--but, like the Sox, they will be a wild card with their record of 87-70. They are 3 games ahead of the Sox. I honestly don't think JH is a cheapskate. I think he's a smart businessman who has already proven himself as an owner--he didn't just end the 86 year curse, he added 3 more WS--and now wants to try a different way by letting Breslow emphasize pitching over hitting and going with small ball. That approach is completely antithetical to the entire history of the Boston Red Sox. Fenway is a ballpark for hitters.

We see the "facts" differently. DD loves to spend and the Phillies agree with him. No WS in the JH era. Yankees are a lot richer than the Sox and have a richer history in winning 27 WS. 1 WS win since 2002. The Dodgers are the cat's meow with the best attendance/income in MLB, the biggest payroll, and pretty smart CBS. They've won 2 WS (last year and the year before) in the JH era. Maybe JH could spend more than he is (Sox payroll is 11th this season and their total wins so far are 9th in MLB), but I think 2019 and DD convinced him it was time to stop spending top dollar and getting low dollar results. That's especially true when you look at teams like the Rays who don't spend much but sure get results. Did I get po'd tonight when the Sox lost 3-2 at the Fens vs Cleveland? You bet I did. The lineup stinks and it has for most of the season. They were typically 0/9 with RISP (!!!!!!!!). Over the last 6 games they are I think they have 2 hits with RISP.

I agree the results speak for themselves from 2019 on. Not good even though 2021 saw the Sox beat the Yankees and Rays before losing to the Astros in the ALCS. That was a good season. Boston ain't a big money market when it has one of the oldest (and most decrepit) ball parks in MLB and are ranked 26th in population among USA cities. It's 673K, not even a million. On the other hand, of course, are the Rays with a tiny attendance and equally tiny payroll. The have the best W-L percentage in the AL. Meanwhile, the NY Mets are in a big city and have pretty good attendance and the 2d highest payroll in MLB with a record of 71-85. They Yankees typically have the 3d highest payroll in MLB and excellent attendance. They've also won the WS 27 freaking times. But since 2003, JH's first season as Sox owner, the Sox have won 4 WS to the Yankees 1. So, frankly, your insistence on calling the Sox the "flops" is just blather. I think you do it just to get attention because you certainly don't have much of an argument to support it. Too bad you missed the 86 year curse because you would have been in your glory.

Well said, but I think the run differential is unduly influenced by a few games when the Sox scored a ton of runs.

Not a big Sandoval fan either. Agree Yankees pitching isn't just the best in MLB, it is so by a significant margin. To make matters worse, the Sox hitting is ranked 20th in runs scored, which is pitiful. You and I however have two very different outlooks about the Sox. I'm not going to quote Lou Gehrig, but do consider myself one of the luckiest of Sox fans ever. Before John Henry, the Sox won zero WS in my first 50 seasons of Sox fandom. He brought us 4 WS wins in his first 16 seasons of Sox ownership--the most in MLB over that timespan and I suspect the most from 2003 thru 2026. In other words, I have no sense of entitlement about the Sox. To me JH and the players and the managers and the CBO's have done a great job and brought me great satisfaction as a Sox fan. They are playing with house money. I would add to the above my fascination with the evolution/adjustments since the 2019 season when the Sox had the highest payroll in MLB and missed the playoffs. Thus the firing of DD and hiring of CB, who was apparently told the budget was coming down and pretty much to avoid big bucks for pitchers. CB had one good season, 2021, when the Sox made it to the ALCS. 2022 and 2023 got him fired and Breslow hired for the 2024 season, also a non-postseason season. Now Breslow has back to back postseasons while his Sox continue to play in the toughest Division (most wins) in MLB. The Yankees are the big payroll team, but the other 4 teams have been competitive (and in the postseason) over the past 5 seasons. Last year Breslow dumped Devers and chose not to re--sign Bregman for $35M x 5 seasons. Those departures might be connected to the Sox rotten scoring this season. On the other hand, Breslow, a Yale grad and a MLB pitcher for 10 seasons (!!!), is I think a huge change from all previous CBO's in the JH era. He loves pitching over hitting. He fired Cora in April--unprecedented--but did that in part to abandon the sabermetrics creed we think John Henry believed in devoutly. Think small ball, which historically has been anathema to the Sox. So my two points are, once again: 1) JH owes me nothing because I watched the Sox win 4 WS (and most of the games, thanks to satellite RV, during the 4 seasons; 2) what is happening now is fascinating (and frustrating of course). And that to me is totally acceptable.

I hate the results of the last 2 games but they were still fascinating. Sandoval gave up 4 runs (40 pitches) in the 1st, then 1 run and 53 pitches to go more innings. Last night Bello was terrific with 1 run in 8 IP and 11 Ks. But in both games the hitting has stunk, especially with RISP. This is a season long issue--good pitching and bad hitting. The Sox are ranked 20th in MLB in runs scored and 3d in ERA.

Actually, Sandy is a perfect fit with the offense, who have a very bad case of RISP disease. Last night they were 1 for 11 with RISP.

I agree. They are especially bad with RISP. Last night they were 1/11 (Mayer's double). In that context, Durbin's attempted steal was a recognition that Duran or whoever wasn't got to bring him home from 2b. Duran's triple occurred with no one on base. Also, the run scored off Whitlock was unearned. Wong also failed to block 2 or more WP's. He no longer can throw anyone out stealing 2b at the same time Rutschman is able to pick off runners at 2b. I think the rotation is already aligned. Rest is good, but too much rest is terrible. The Rockies swept the NLCS in 2007 and had to wait 9 days before playing the Sox, who swept them in the WS.