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Kimmi

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Everything posted by Kimmi

  1. Kimmi
    Baseball Reference has a Hall of Fame Monitor, created by Bill James, which assesses how likely a player is to get into the Hall, based on how the voters traditionally vote. A score of 130 is a virtual lock. Papi's score is 154 without any defensive contribution, which ranks him 83rd on the all time list. Papi has provided a higher standard of offense than most players, enough to "compensate" for not playing defense.
  2. Kimmi
    Hi Bill, welcome!
  3. Kimmi
    I don't know why, but I have confidence in Kelly.
  4. Kimmi
    I was going to post something about the original "72 hour" prognosis. It sounds like Smith is still dealing with soreness too and has to be used cautiously.
  5. Kimmi
    And with Buchholz too. I guess we hope the offense continues to carry the team. LOL
  6. Kimmi
    Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight is the same Nate Silver who developed PECOTA, which he sold to Baseball Prospectus. In other words, I would guess the projection systems of the 2 sites are very similar, though I'm sure tweaks have been made to both systems.
  7. Kimmi
    I pretty much agree with this. First off, a lot can happen between now and then, so it's really too soon to know who will be the best option. For many reasons, I don't think there's any way that Papi doesn't retire after this season. Despite Hanley playing much better defense than I expected, I think he makes the most sense at DH for next year. I don't foresee the Sox paying either Bautista or Encarnacion the kind of money that they're looking for, especially at their age. I read the other day that Hanley's splits as DH are excellent, with the usual small sample size caveat. The year he is slashing .500/.526/.944/1.471 in 19 PAs as a DH, and for his career he's slashing .345/.389/.638/1.027 in 126 PAs as a DH. Can't beat that!
  8. Kimmi
    Nice, and good for you! I'll be recording the day game and watching it when I get home from work, before the night game.
  9. Kimmi
    If I'm not mistaken, the Royals had just played a 13 inning game in which their starter did not go very deep and they burned up their pen. I think the day off benefited them more than it did the Sox. Oh well, we'll get 'em anyway. Get it done boys! Go Sox!
  10. Kimmi
    Baseball Prospectus, the other "tabloid" has projected the Sox' chance of winning the division to be 59.4%, the chance of making the playoffs to be 81.1%, and the chance of winning the World Series to be 10.3%. The Sox are on pace to win 102 games.
  11. Kimmi
    He has not been worth it this year, to date. He was easily worth it last year. The point is, he was easily worth taking the risk on for $13 mil for one year.
  12. Kimmi
    League average line drive rate is 24%, according to B-R. Line drive rates for the following players with high BABIP: Travis Shaw - 25% Hanley Ramirez - 21% Jackie Bradley Jr. - 20% Xander Bogaerts - 20% Except for Shaw, none of those guys is hitting line drives at a higher than average rate. And Fangraphs has Shaw at about 20%.
  13. Kimmi
    From a baseball standpoint, Schilling has earned a lifetime pass with me. What he did in 2004 was nothing short of amazing. I do not understand anybody trying to downplay that.
  14. Kimmi
    LOL Hugh, don't rain on our parade! Yes, regression is inevitable. That said, even with the regression, the offense looks to be one of the top 2-3 in the AL. Baltimore and Texas are good, and no one else is even close, though the Jays bats should wake up. The Sox have scored 6.03 runs/game so far. Fangraphs has them projected to score 4.81 runs/game the rest of the season. In comparison, the Os are projected at 4.73 runs/game and the Jays at 4.71 runs/game.
  15. Kimmi
    KANSAS CITY -- Monday's Red Sox-Royals game at Kauffman Stadium was postponed because of rain. The game will be rescheduled as part of a day-night doubleheader on Wednesday, with the day game at 1:15 p.m. CT and the night game at 7:15. Big time bummer.
  16. Kimmi
    IMO, both Edgar and Papi deserve to be in the HOF without question. The idea that they don't deserve it because they don't play defense is ludicrous. If DH is a legitimate position, which it is, then the voters need to assess pure DH's on the merits of playing that position, which doesn't include defense. Personally, I don't see any way that Papi doesn't get in because he is not only a great hitter, he is an icon.
  17. Kimmi
    If the offense were not scoring a ton of runs, I would agree with you. But with the way they're scoring and the team is winning, I'd hate to "disrupt" the lineup. Moving Mookie also means moving at least one other batter, which might or might not be a big deal. If Mookie is still not up to par in 2-3 weeks, or the offense suddenly goes cold, then you shake things up a little. Otherwise, it's too soon, IMO.
  18. Kimmi
    Farrell said today that Clay will be making his next start. Rodriguez likely needs one more start in AAA.
  19. Kimmi
    Yes they did Yaz, and it seems like everyone is contributing. Different guys are coming through with the big hits. I saw an interesting tweet earlier. Boston's team BA is .297 (which is incredible) and Atlanta's team slugging is .297 (which is also incredible).
  20. Kimmi
    I agree Roy. O'Sullivan absolutely did his job in his first start. Giving the team 6 innings while keeping them in the game is pretty much what you hope for going into those spot starts from a guy who is the #8 or #9 guy in your rotation depth. Most of the time, teams are fairly happy if they get that from their #5 starter.
  21. Kimmi
    It wasn't pretty, but the team got the job done. I'll take it! Excellent home stand!
  22. Kimmi
    It's like day and night between last year and this year. Last year when the team got behind 2-3 runs, I was never confident that they could come back, and they rarely did. This year I expect them to come back and am very disappointed when they don't.
  23. Kimmi
    ^^This. If the team were not scoring runs and not winning, then I could understand more of a 'sense of urgency' in changing the batting order. But the team is doing very well, so they have the luxury of being more patient with Mookie.
  24. Kimmi
    Ha. No, I wasn't fretting over the roster crunch, as I had no problem starting Rodriguez in AAA. I was merely pointing out the very real decisions that many others here would be fretting over had we added another mid rotation starter.
  25. Kimmi
    We agree on Drew's defense 100%. Flashy does not necessarily mean better.
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