sk7326

I was paraphrasing some for brevity - looking back his blurb did not mention confidence with Monegro - but that he did not throw the fastball enough in terms of pitch mix, but if he uses it more to get ahead to set up the off speed stuff, there is a good starter there. The exact quote on Early here fwiw

Law's Writeup of the System https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6098646/2025/02/03/red-sox-2025-top-20-prospects-keith-law/ Top 20 prospects Roman Anthony, OF (#1 overall) Kristian Campbell 2B/OF (#9) Marcelo Mayer, SS (#28) Franklin Arias, SS (#42) Yoelin Cespedes, SS (#97) Miguel Bleis, OF - lost season, hard contact not getting lift. 2 years removed from 2023 injuries, see what happens Luis Perales, RHP - TJS, you know the story Jhostynixon Garcia, OF - Great power, good defense, chases too many balls but above average starter with big power is there David Sandlin, RHP - Threw strikes, gave up too many HRs, had some elbow soreness. But showed enough promise with a splitter that he could be a 4th starter type fairly soon Juan Valera, RHP - Crushed the complex league. Long way to go, but above average starter talent Yordanny Monegro, RHP - Had that ridiculous IP stretch. Relied too much on junkballing. #3 starter sort if he puts it together and throws the fastball more confidently. Hunter Dobbins, RHP - No elite pitches, but a bunch of good ones. If control improves, he can be a mid-rotation starter, high end reliever otherwise Jedixon Paez, LHP - Weird delivery, good control, 4th starter potential if he can add a little more zip to the fastball Payton Tolle, LFP - 2nd round pick. Tall with good deception in delivery. But fastball is all he has right now. Johanfran Garcia, C - Looked awesome before the knee injury. See what happens. Connelly Early, LHP - Terrific in high-A and low-A. But (again) relies on off speed stuff and command with a meh fastball. Richard Fitts, RHP - We've seen him - we know what he is. Conrad Cason, RHP/SS - 8th rounder, announced as a 2-way player (whatever it takes to sign him). Pitching is much more advanced and much more viable long term. Mikey Romero, SS/2B - Terrible back injury in 2023. Probably 2B only. This could be the first healthy year to see what he can do since he was drafted. Blaze Jordan, 3B/1B - Probably should only play 1B now. Power needs to get into real games more. Nazzan Zanatello and Antonio Anderson - quoting directly here Breakout candidate: The Password Guy - I don't want to look up the spelling

He may, he may not - he jokes he hates your team. He loved Theo's front office and loved Dombrowski less. The Red Sox with their revenue have no excuse to skimp. Now, they are not the only team skimping on pro scouting this way - doesn't make it a good idea. As always - while the Red Sox may not be QUITE at the Dodgers level, they definitely are as high as you want to get revenuewise ... you have the money to do all of it, fund the major league roster, have the best, largest R&D and a robust, sizeable scouting force. The Dodgers don't skimp on any of this - even though they are spending big on the major league club.

Purging pro scouting has been an industry trend for sure - the Astros famously did it ... some front offices have decided since they can get StatCast Data for the minors that the pro scouting might not be necessary. That said, not everything has to be a cost to get cut (ha!) - and scouting is one of the cheap places to gain advantage ... the Rays, as cash strapped as they are, do not skimp on that.

The Athletic ranks Boston with the #2 system in the league ... https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6094581/2025/01/30/mlb-farm-system-rankings-2025/ Law's blurb

ESPN (Kiley McDaniel) has its top 100 ... now #1 is Roki Sasaki ... who is a bit of a weird case being 23 years old and on a minor league deal ... McDaniels lists him as a "prospect". So maybe this is a Top 99 2. Roman Anthony 4. Marcelo Mayer 26. Kristian Campbell (McDaniel notes the mechanics offensively are a bit awkward and he is not getting much lift on the ball, and that gives him a wider band of outcomes, hence the wide range of assessments leaguewide) I can see Arias and Cespedes being outside of a Top 100 if you are going to prioritize "distance to the big leagues"

Every sport that has salary caps has minimum guarantees of revenue. The minimum wage should increase of course. the Union has been short sighted about the cap ... their peers in football and basketball are getting more of the pie. It is still wild that the players could not get the luxury tax tiers tied to something auditable.

While I am not in favor of salary caps on principle - if we used a share ratio like they do in the NBA/NFL, you'd land on a cap of $189M per team. In 2024, only 11 of the 30 teams got to that number. (the Red Sox were basically on the line)

The athleticism was there - but he had just not played a ton. He was raw. But clearly he has taken to coaching etc.

The blurbs from The Athletic: 1. Roman Anthony - 9. Kristian Campbell 28. Marcelo Mayer - No point quoting the report. He has simply not shown an ability to stay on the field - otherwise he'd be solidly in the Top 10 42. Franklin Ariast 97. Yoelin Cespedes For some Sox-adjacent numbers Kyle Teel at 37, Braden Montgomery at 38 and Nick Yorke made a re-leap in at 50.

ultimate case of a good idea that didn't work ... and honestly, he was never BAD. He was still a 3-4 win player for a few years after he got dealt to the Dodgers. He had the 2011 collapse stench, though this was not Carl Crawford or anything.

Buehler at least shows some very recent evidence of good form. This is a good use of a short deal.

greatest player of the 1980s - and one of the coolest. I was grateful for his time in Boston - as brief as it was. There was nobody like him.

Uh, I saw the headline "Sox sign Sandoval to a 2-year deal" and almost had an aneurysm. Then I saw PATRICK Sandoval and was like thank god.

There is definitely downside - but there were few avenues without them. Ultimately the Sox paid a big price - it would be weird to do that and not get an extension done.

Presuming he recovers from the broken ankle fine, he could be very good. But he is also a cat who's played 0 games of professional baseball. At least the Red Sox were dealing from org strength.

Absolutely. But it is a wait and see on that front. I mean, the Dodgers are the vision here ... where all of these decisions are made from strength and where there is both big league quality and prospect inventory.

Good young players aren't free - as the Mets will happily point out. The good thing is the Sox had the resources to do this while still having the top guys in their system.

Yes - and the Red Sox had the depth to make a significant move for the big league club. It's a gamble - but so is everything else. Hell, Alcantara is coming off of TJS. the goal is for the Red Sox to be able to keep drafting, signing and developing guys so there IS this sort of inventory to make moves for the big league club.

To paraphrase Don Draper, that's what the prospects are for! Sox keep their Top 3 prospects, traded a Top 100ish prospect (Montgomery) from strength. Trading Teel hurts - but these sorts of players with team control aren't free. It's risky - but so is acquiring any other sort of carbon based life form who can throw 95 mph. This has a chance to be like the Beckett trade where everybody goes home a winner.

His defense will let him be at least a viable starter. Now, the OP is right. The Statcast batted ball rates plummeted for Story last season ... and we have to see whether that is sample size theater, whether his shoulder was causal, or whether he is just washed. I give him enormous credit for coming back during the season last year. He has just been cursed,

Was fun to dream - and by all accounts the Sox really did try. The Mets should have no regret about that deal. But now, let's land one of the big FA starters. I favor Fried a bit since he is a bit less fastball reliant - which makes a 5ish year deal more tractable. Obviously shoot your shot with Sasaki, but since that is a minor league deal, it's basically a pure recruiting play and who knows how that will go. Burnes is great too. I've evangelized about trying to see if Sandy Alcantara is gettable - even knowing he is coming off of TJS - and I still think that is a good idea. Crochet would be terrific too, but I am not sure the prospect price makes sense.

As far as this class? 1. Anthony and Campbell have done everything developmentally you would associate with future high end regulars. Those are the dudes you have to bet on. 2. Mayer has done a lot, but has also been hurt a lot. It's just what it is. Puts him a half step behind in terms of betting odds, though the payoff might be higher. 3. Teel got to AAA fast. But catcher is catcher. I think he might have the highest floor of the Top 4 - but he also might not be an All Star. 4. Braden Montgomery is still fairly raw despite an excellent season in college. So there is still a lot there. This class is strong in terms of ceiling, but the 06 class' depth and impact is hard to match. I mean, the guys taken there were among the backbones to two titles. Shop around, you can't beat that.

Will have to see about next year ... but an 18 year old just being not-terrible at Salem does say a lot good. It is worth remembering Devers was not putitng up amazing numbers in Single-A, while being ridiculously young for the level.

Ultimately, makeup and medicals end up driving so much of prospect fortunes and that is stuff we just don't know. What we can observe is performance/age/level norms and that is a pretty good guide historically. I mean, Kristian Campbell being named Keith Law's MLB Prospect of the Year is obvious - raked across 3 levels while not striking out. That'll do it every time. But Franklin Arias made his honorable mentions and others ... but there the sign is putting up acceptable results at Salem as an 18 year old. It's still really early - but that is exciting to bet on.