sk7326

4-6 win shortstops are hard to find - Bogaerts case is fairly strong in that regard ... particularly if they have some decent intel on the actual likelihood of bagging a Trea Turner.

Kike at $10M is fine - both sides have some upside there. They need some functional production from DH and RF - now that cost shouldn't be ridiculous ... that is, the cost for Aaron Judge is a lot, but the cost for Hunter Renfroe isn't. I would like to think the team would go in on somebody significant if Bogaerts walks like a Trea Turner ... but who knows. Pitching they need at least one high floor starter and just a bunch of other arms for the bullpen. Maybe you pick up Paxton's option assuming he can pitch again at any sort of level of effectiveness - but I'd be just as happy seeing if Eovaldi would come back for a similar number.

Nobody doubts they are well run - but if they were also cheap and not well run, the ownership that wanted to timeshare them with Montreal wouldn't care.

To be able to watch some October baseball and have a budding superstar seemingly sent from the future ... that seems nice.

From Rays ownership - it's the money. The success is a happy coincidence.

The thing with Bogaerts this season is that the doubles are still there and the line drive rate is still there. The fly balls have taken a dive - it does make you wonder whether this is just something mechanical that can be fixed in the offseason. He has not shown any markers of being an easier hitter for a pitcher to deal with. I am ambivalent about re-signing him - only because he is 30 and a lot of his WAR bounceback is driven by defense which seems a little trickier to sustain. But he is a good player, even if perhaps you have to think about moving him to 3B down the line.

I think just assuming Sale is not going to be hit by an Acme Corporation produced anvil ... or get struck by lightning .. is wildly optimisitic given the last 2+ seasons.

The one thing Bloom has done developmentally is get more pitching in the org than it has had in years. It'd be nice to have more #1/#2 starter among that group, but there seem to be a lot of dudes who can be solid big league somethings. And if we really are converging to a 120 IP starter sort of reality, maybe having lots of flawed stuff guys is the way to go? I dunno. It'd be nice to have a star - though the arrival there is not 2024 at the earliest.

He was decent enough in his actual turns - he just got hurt and then the bullpen needed him.

DeGrom is the obvious prize but I think there is 0% chance he escapes the Mets. Syndegaard would be worthwhile in the more top shelf category. Maybe the Mets would show DeGrom the bag but let Bassitt go. I could see a Rich Hill-type dart throw at a guy like a Chris Archer. I also wouldn't rule out Eovaldi or Wacha being back - they certainly aren't the worst ideas out there is we're talking low 8-figures and short duration.

That extension was dicey while it was coming ... but clearly ownership and Dombrowski were doing keg stands then. I've whined online about organizational whiplash and that contract was THE exemplar. The Eovaldi deal was a calculated risk but probably one I'd take again - when healthy he has been good to very good. He has also not been healthy most of the time. Heck, I'd at least kick the tires on what he'd need $$-wise.

I am optimistic. It has also been 4 years since he has been one of the league's best pitchers. The team needs him for sure.

His strikeout rate dropped in 2021 ... and if you want to get to bigger games and such he is still a pitcher who has completed 6 innings in exactly zero postseason starts. Sale I think will be very good next year and easily the best starter on the staff - but my expectations are somewhat limited, particularly as a spoiled Red Sox fan who still remembers Pedro or Clemens.

This is basically right. Hosmer is a plus because he is a breathing, sentient MLB caliber 1B, even if he is not good. The die rolls he took in the offseason were fine mostly. The Story signing could be good next year. But this year it has been injuries and a general lack of producing anything BUT homeruns. Even if he was not expected to be an on-base machine, whatever you expected of him, .298 is below that. It has been existing guys getting hurt or playing below par, though the "below par" bit would have been fine if they got even C/C- level production at 1B and RF. I am actually optimistic about next year - but the team has some big decisions.

It'd be nice. That said, his numbers have not been great since the World Series year ... granted he has been hurt for a lot of it. The strikeout data in small sample land have been a dropoff. He can still be the team's most effective pitcher - by a lot. But it's going to be a bit more crafty lefty now.

That is possible. The way I look at it, in 2021 the Red Sox counted on Dalbec and Cordero - they liked that so much they traded for Schwarber. So their 2022 plan was ... Dalbec and Cordero??? "medicore 1B/DH" is one of the easiest things to find on the street in baseball. And yes, Travis Shaw was a better bet to achieve that than Dalbec and Franchy.

I think you only really needed Nate and Kike to hit. Bogaerts has not been great - but he has been well within his career range. Since he's become a good player, some years the ball goes over the fence, some years less so. But there are plenty of doubles and such - he's going to be a 4-5 win player again no problem. And it would look a lot better if Story were good. Would this have assured the Red Sox make the playoffs? Maybe. It would still have been a close call with how Seattle has played. And again, Baltimore being legitimately decent matters quite a bit here.

The catastrophic losses were at 1B/RF. Both of them were dicey ex ante, though Dalbec offered some hope (offset a bit by the Red Sox seeing his performance last year and deciding they needed to trade for Kyle Schwarber). Eovaldi's injury, form was bad. Pivetta has been - well, typical Pivetta. His value lies in taking the ball. Agreed on Tanner Houck, M.D.. Whitlock has been fine when he has been healthy. (expecting 2021 again was nuts) The pitching dropped off. But ultimately, a team that mashed their way around their problems simply didn't this year. And it really came down to getting "poor middle infield" level production out of freaking RF and 1B.

Well, there are a few reasons at work. 1. The Orioles don't suck. 2. Bloom took a bunch of die rolls last season that worked - and the die rolls this season have not been as successful, particularly in 1B/RF, positions where teams NEED offense 3. They brought in one of the top free agents in the entire class! He just has been bad. Yes, he has been excellent defensively, but "great defensive 2B who is a sub .300 OBP" is absolutely not a victory for what they asked out of Trevor Story 4. Health with Kike and the starters. And that is allowing for the possibility Kike was going to turn into a pumpkin at the plate. 5. The Chris Sale Experience Ironically, his starting die rolls were not that bad. Like, Wacha has been terrific - his injury was a huge loss for this team. Rich Hill was less so, but it's not like the Garrett Richards experience was amazing. The Red Sox defense has been better than last year - but team has struck out fewer batters and (relatively, not absolutely) have given up more homeruns. And so there has been a drop in FIP. Here is the thing. When ownership decided to make the Betts deal a Price salary dump (their prerogative, it makes sense) - the chance to get an All-Star talent from that deal went down the tubes. (though Downs I think will be a solid big league something) The Next Great Star in the system is likely 2 years away at minimum. (Mayer and Bleis are the names to watch, though their sandwich pick this year has some serious tools) The team does have a chance to be pretty good next year - a lot of money they can move around. But the range of outcomes is wide.

Now - I need to be fair. The defense IS better ... going from 25th to 15th per fangraphs. So it has gone from actively harmful to "meh". And I think Fenway does confound UZR measurements for left fielders and might not be a great mousetrap there.

So much of the coverage made it Epstein vs Lucchino (and let's be real - Epstein was a lot to do with that). But Lucchino identified Epstein as a future star, and that was not some wild outlier in his career.

Given the need - or the ownership mandate to deal Price - it's what it is. While scuttlebutt indicates there might not have been a ton offers - what we don't know is the premises the Red Sox were using. If the trade being pitched was the "David Price salary dump featuring Mookie Betts", it is not difficult to figure out why the market was limited. Now, ownership treating the luxury tax like a hard cap is both bad and typical of the industry - and the reason for all of the labor strife.

I always said it was a solid baseball deal considering ownership wanted him to drive Price to the airport. I will still lament the lack of All-Star upside that came back.

The financial relief is fine as far as it goes. But it is hard to see the return on the Soto deal (granted 2 years of control vs 1) and not play a sad trombone for the Betts trade.

It is not nearly as good a FA class as last year - but the Sox will be in a good position. Judge or Trea Turner are the big catches, particularly assuming Bogaerts is gone. (though I would not assume that necessarily just given the field) Eovaldi is worth bringing back for a couple of years. I'd love to bring Wacha back on another short deal though he might have earned a more substantial payday with his performance (if the medicals check out). Chris Archer seems like the sort of guy who the Red Sox would take a 1-year swing at. And it'd be nice to get the bullpen to the point they can re-visit Whitlock in the rotation. And of course, it'd be nice to see if Story is actually good or not.