sk7326

I think you only really needed Nate and Kike to hit. Bogaerts has not been great - but he has been well within his career range. Since he's become a good player, some years the ball goes over the fence, some years less so. But there are plenty of doubles and such - he's going to be a 4-5 win player again no problem. And it would look a lot better if Story were good. Would this have assured the Red Sox make the playoffs? Maybe. It would still have been a close call with how Seattle has played. And again, Baltimore being legitimately decent matters quite a bit here.

The catastrophic losses were at 1B/RF. Both of them were dicey ex ante, though Dalbec offered some hope (offset a bit by the Red Sox seeing his performance last year and deciding they needed to trade for Kyle Schwarber). Eovaldi's injury, form was bad. Pivetta has been - well, typical Pivetta. His value lies in taking the ball. Agreed on Tanner Houck, M.D.. Whitlock has been fine when he has been healthy. (expecting 2021 again was nuts) The pitching dropped off. But ultimately, a team that mashed their way around their problems simply didn't this year. And it really came down to getting "poor middle infield" level production out of freaking RF and 1B.

Well, there are a few reasons at work. 1. The Orioles don't suck. 2. Bloom took a bunch of die rolls last season that worked - and the die rolls this season have not been as successful, particularly in 1B/RF, positions where teams NEED offense 3. They brought in one of the top free agents in the entire class! He just has been bad. Yes, he has been excellent defensively, but "great defensive 2B who is a sub .300 OBP" is absolutely not a victory for what they asked out of Trevor Story 4. Health with Kike and the starters. And that is allowing for the possibility Kike was going to turn into a pumpkin at the plate. 5. The Chris Sale Experience Ironically, his starting die rolls were not that bad. Like, Wacha has been terrific - his injury was a huge loss for this team. Rich Hill was less so, but it's not like the Garrett Richards experience was amazing. The Red Sox defense has been better than last year - but team has struck out fewer batters and (relatively, not absolutely) have given up more homeruns. And so there has been a drop in FIP. Here is the thing. When ownership decided to make the Betts deal a Price salary dump (their prerogative, it makes sense) - the chance to get an All-Star talent from that deal went down the tubes. (though Downs I think will be a solid big league something) The Next Great Star in the system is likely 2 years away at minimum. (Mayer and Bleis are the names to watch, though their sandwich pick this year has some serious tools) The team does have a chance to be pretty good next year - a lot of money they can move around. But the range of outcomes is wide.

Now - I need to be fair. The defense IS better ... going from 25th to 15th per fangraphs. So it has gone from actively harmful to "meh". And I think Fenway does confound UZR measurements for left fielders and might not be a great mousetrap there.

So much of the coverage made it Epstein vs Lucchino (and let's be real - Epstein was a lot to do with that). But Lucchino identified Epstein as a future star, and that was not some wild outlier in his career.

Given the need - or the ownership mandate to deal Price - it's what it is. While scuttlebutt indicates there might not have been a ton offers - what we don't know is the premises the Red Sox were using. If the trade being pitched was the "David Price salary dump featuring Mookie Betts", it is not difficult to figure out why the market was limited. Now, ownership treating the luxury tax like a hard cap is both bad and typical of the industry - and the reason for all of the labor strife.

I always said it was a solid baseball deal considering ownership wanted him to drive Price to the airport. I will still lament the lack of All-Star upside that came back.

The financial relief is fine as far as it goes. But it is hard to see the return on the Soto deal (granted 2 years of control vs 1) and not play a sad trombone for the Betts trade.

It is not nearly as good a FA class as last year - but the Sox will be in a good position. Judge or Trea Turner are the big catches, particularly assuming Bogaerts is gone. (though I would not assume that necessarily just given the field) Eovaldi is worth bringing back for a couple of years. I'd love to bring Wacha back on another short deal though he might have earned a more substantial payday with his performance (if the medicals check out). Chris Archer seems like the sort of guy who the Red Sox would take a 1-year swing at. And it'd be nice to get the bullpen to the point they can re-visit Whitlock in the rotation. And of course, it'd be nice to see if Story is actually good or not.

They are wallowing in last place because they are playing in the only division where that would be the case.

There were a lot of dice rolls ... last year, the dice rolls went Renfroe and Kike ... this year, not so much. In particular, 1B and corner OF are the sorts of positions where you expect good offensive outcomes and the Red Sox getting virtually nothing (like on an absolute level, not just "bad for the position") really screwed things up. Even then, a world where the team got just a FEW more starts from Eovaldi and Wacha likely would have them right in the wild card mix.

But - most football games at the end are not wild celebrations ... and there is WAY more at stake in an individual game. But I am sure the pressure exists. After all, there are only 780 of these positions on earth ... and teams are constantly trying to replace you with a cheaper guy. (this is true in most real jobs, but even more in baseball as the owners have amply shown).

Pham and Hosmer have helped raise "complete garbage" production to "functional major league player" ... and that has really shown.

I think they get excited - they don't fake those walk off celebrations. But you just can't get bogged down by games. The one thing baseball teaches players quickly is that you are going to fail ... A LOT. If you can't deal with that, this ain't the gig. After all, while we as fans care - it's not our livelihoods.

Sure - though positions where most teams get offense were places where the Red Sox made some bets but the bets were failures. When you combine that with Story not being very good - and Kike being hurt/bad ... just a lot of the places where the team expected help just did not materialize. It is also worth blaming the defense which has been bad the last two seasons - and has certainly not provided the pitchers much help. And while the players have struggled - there are real questions about whether the defensive algorithm magic has been particularly effective. It is fair to wonder whether the machine learning defensive positioning models are actually providing good information.

There IS a large range of outcomes ... but guys like him are the guys you bet on. It's like high school - best player on the JV team is great ... it's the 14 year old who is getting decent minutes with the varsity players who is going to be a star

His numbers in Greenville and Salem were meh - but he was also the youngest player in that league at that time. That he was even average at that age was a real tell that he was a Guy

Yeah - even just looking at the stats/level/age combination that is very very impressive. Devers' came on the radar simply because he smoked rookie ball as a 17 year old.

I think Tito was happy to step away on some level. Tito did not deserve to be fired on the basis of that team - but then you could make a decent case that Grady Little should have survived 2003. But Francona in the intervening years has reinforced what a great manager he is. I'd suspect Cora would do the same elsewhere.

Yeah - you look at how he has performed and he and Mayer are the clear bets for the next generation of Sox stars in the system.

We'll see - for the most part the prospects make these decisions for the organization. Mayer has been very good at Greenville - I'd bet 2024 myself but second half of next season is not crazy

Both Benintendi and Devers were effectively called up from AA. That said, that has not happened recently - but the prospects have not been that good either.

Yeah - though the resume was deeper. Crushed AA and spent almost no time in AAA

The $300M sounds good - but it does undervalue the player considerably.

That is awful. I remember Hazen from the South Shore League All Star Team when he was at Abington High School. (I knew who he was and whatever, I did not "know him")