sk7326

The WBC is great - but it'd be MUCH better served to replace the Caribbean World Series (for instance) when it goes. There are definitely flaws in the timing - and some of the injuries have been real bummers. But how the other countries react to this shows that is is good idea for the game.

I won't go too deep into the top guys - much has been written about it ... however Ceddane Rafaela - there is a "not crazy" scenario where he is the Sox' starting CF by the All Star break. It's unlikely - and as a 21 year old in AA, it would not be any sort of embarassment if it was not so. But the dreams of him feel more real than dream for others. Bryan Mata - a little more time away from TJS. Of the pitchers, he also has an exciting albeit not all that likely ceiling. Mata is a good stand-in for a number of arms in the org with wide ranges of outcomes. Do any of them create some serious optimism? Nick Yorke - ultimately his entire profile is based on his hitting. Can he get back on the positive train again? Blaze Jordan - can he stay healthy, and can his batting practice show start to make it into actual games? Miguel Bleis - listen to the discussion I posted a few days ago. He struck out A LOT. But he wasn't chasing pitches - and the contact he made was elite quality. Can he draw some more walks and command the strike zone better? It is important to temper some of the box score expectations, he is still a 19 year old in full season ball. In the before time, Bleis would have had a few reps at Lowell last season, but alas.

If you have an athletic subscription, this "Joey Votto's commentary on the Oral History of Joey Votto" is terrific https://theathletic.com/4191913/2023/02/27/joey-votto-reds-oral-history/?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

Bogaerts was not crushing AAA, but he was not bad either ... and I think the org was mostly correct deciding that he was the best available option for solving what was a truly dreadful 3B position. Just being able to adequately get on base was a big deal. Ultimately - when you compare the league perception of him as a prospect ... Bogaerts ended up being a better SS than expected, but never got into the sort of power that scouts dreamt.

I am very optimistic about the position players. Pitching? There is just such a wide range of outcomes with the sorts of pitchers the team has in the org. If one of Mata or Murphy (or insert whatever pitching prospect you want) starts to emerge more as a "mid-rotation starter" sort than a "swing/bullpen" sort, then it can really get fun. Now both Dombrowski and Bloom have been intentional about trying to get more arms into the system - but now some of those higher end outcomes need to bear fruit.

The reports on Rafaela is that the swing is fine - he has struck out a ton, but it has been more about knowing what a strike is. I think Law mentioned that Rafaela is such an overwhelmingly promising CF defensively that you hope the team does not rush his hitting development to get that glove on the field in Boston. Of course, Rafaela can solve that problem for them.

Here is Law and Longenhagen (the Fangraphs prospects guy) talking about their lists and biggest gaps ... one solid segment of it was on Bleis https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/comparing-top-100-lists-with-eric-longenhagen-and/id1499877854?i=1000601463988

Mike Napoli, 2013 ... 3.7 bWAR

I'm not sure any of the pitchers will top 120 IP this season - well, besides Pivetta

1. Fun trivia (don't go to ESPN site) - who was the last Red Sox 1B to put up >= 3 wins above replacement in a season? 2. Casas, Bello, Whitlock will be fun. Yoshida is fun just as a mystery. The REAL fun would be is Rafaela did enough to get a call up before September.

Sure - that said Whitlock was a triumph of pro scouting!

As someone who roots for Liverpool (Salah!), FSG is accused of being cheapskates.

Contracts at that level are always ownership's call. Yes the GM can be a company man - but ultimately owners are largely not giving unchecked spending authorities on amounts that high.

I am ... for now ...

I think Sale just broke his nose during pitcher fielding practice.

Groome fell entirely because of signability.

This is true - but pitching is also so important that you kind of can't avoid it. Now - high school pitching is far and away the riskiest category of amateur ... I think folks like Law and a couple others I've read are extremely skeptical at this point of using first round picks on them. Really what you'd like is to figure out how to develop college pitching like Cleveland has. The mystery of how to nurture arms through 18-22 (or heck, most any other age too) has clearly not been cracked. Digression: Jeff Passan's The Arm is a good read on this.

This. You can't ask an org to NOT sign teenaged pitching prospects - you go where the talent is - but this is the downside risk, especially if you build a lot of the plane with it.

Could argue bad luck ... the TJS cases were all signed out of high school (or equivalent) ... high school pitching can be scary that way (obviously so can college pitchers - but the extra 3-4 years of physical development matter a lot from a probability perspective)

Well, putting their limitations where the ROI can be the highest. Scouts are cheap, relatively speaking.

Now, we do see things that Bloom wants to do in how he has drafted ... there are a lot of high contact middle of the diamond sorts, with the idea that the team can coach them up on finding power. (the Dodgers do this too - of course the Dodgers are the large market fever dream of what the Rays do)

One thing Tampa does is that it has the largest pro scouting operation in the sport. That is part of it. Another thing is creating a development specialty. You look at Cleveland - who seems to be spitting out one quality arm after another. There, they have largely been drafting college starters with good command/control and develop the additional velocity and stuff. A factor in the Sox' defense here has also been that where they have drafted historically (mostly) you are left with high schoolers for the quality upside - but high school pitching is simply THE most volatile stock of all in amateurland.

The one thing Dombrowski and Bloom have done is just get more arms in the system. Even if there is high reliever risk across the board, the state of "guys who can be big league somethings" is better than it has been in a while.

He pretty clearly explained his view - the position player prospects are pretty good, the pitching is far less certain. And as ESPN's prospects guy (Kiley McDaniel) noted - after Mayer and Casas, most of the top prospects in the org last season had tough seasons. Basically - if one or two of these pitchers with a wide range of outcomes raises their likelihood to be a big league starter, things will really start looking up. If Sale stayed healthy this would all look so much better - that said, the Sale extension that Dombrowski and ownership signed was a ticking time bomb ex ante.

Oh i am not sure it will work necessarily - but I am okay with trying it. The sport - at a 30,000 foot level - has been trending towards less and less action, and I really do appreciate attempts to roll that back. The sport shouldn't be snooty and overly precious about tradition in exchange for trying to make the sport more entertaining. The pitch clock is fine too - in the minor leagues it did knock time off the games, and as long as nobody's arm falls off whatever.