sk7326

They are - but some aren't. I mean - the correlation between current performance and farm system ranking is dicey ... after all a lot of time the farm has just graduated their best fruit to the big club.

Bello would help Boston for sure by a couple of spots. The major prospects outlets (MLB, Fangraphs, ESPN, Athletic) have the Red Sox between 14 and 24 - and really all of the variance comes down to how you feel about the organizational pitching. The Sox have done a good job building pitching inventory - but they need a few of the guys to deliver some of the "higher end" outcomes.

Spring training doesn't matter - in that there are not necessarily a lot of roster spots that will be determined by performance in pretend games. The tough thing about individual results is that you have to figure out what is noise and what is meaningful improvement.

I think MLB could do it without giving up revenue! We played a season this year with a 1-week delay and nobody cared.

The team will hit enough. Yoshida looks like (from the eye test/WBC small sample) he should be at least an average bat in LF. The team should be able to score enough. It all comes down to run prevention. The pitching has upside and numbers - but you point out the uncertainty well. The team might have one of the league's worst outfields defensively - can they be improvements rangewise on potted plants out there. (that said, that could clean up very quickly if a certain tiny centerfielder in Portland/Worcester makes another developmental leap) I am thinking 84-78, but I have no idea what that will mean standingswise.

Yes. And of course - from a 30,000 foot view - the sport is better for a non-US team winning.

When I see what it means to other teams, my own cynicism about the WBC goes away. That was fun. But I think having ramped up pitchers and players would be better. I'd still think about cancelling the All Star Game and just playing the WBC during the break. Also allows cold weather markets to bid - more $$$ for the league. Another way might be to take a week off in May for the Group Stage games and then play the knockout games over the All Star Break.

Any start where Chris Sale is not struck by lightning or hit by a Mack truck - or abducted by aliens is a good sign.

The Nimmo deal is risky as is the Diaz one (even before the injury) But other big money stuff they have done is pretty decent business ... the Verlander and Quintana deals are good values. The Dodgers are clearly the rainbow and what every team in the Sox' position should be aspiring to - particularly in the development side.

we just had a season that started a week late and nothing happened. So this is not splitting the atom or anything.

The rule changes are promising so far. I actually even kinda-sorta-grudgingly understand the ghost runner and trying to limit super long games.

He doesn't have to hit 20 HRs - just has to be able to punish mistakes enough that pitchers are actually careful about making them. A good batting eye isn't all that helpful if the pitcher doesn't fear putting one down the middle.

Usual SSS caveats apply - but if he can get to enough hard contact, he's going to be an on-base machine.

Take one MLB sanctioned cash cow and replace it with a bigger one!

That is entirely about the nature of the sport. Just look at the spread in records. In baseball, the a team's best player at its most important position will end up only playing about 13% of the time! And of course it is a sport where a positive offensive outcome takes place about 32% of the time. It has always been the most noisy playoff statistically. In the NBA the best players are on the floor anywhere between 70% to 100% of the time depending on the game. The sport has never had a lot of turnover - in most years it has been an oligopoly. The cap's purpose was to limit spending. What has happened in baseball though is that the current system has given the players all of the downsides of the salary cap with none of the positives. In the NBA, the players get a look at the owner's books and a guaranteed % of revenue. Let's put it this way - I did a back of the envelope sort of calculation once ... if baseball had a salary cap like the NBA, the Pirates and Marlins would have a payroll around $150M.

Another option I think would be fun would be to just cancel the All Star game and extend the Break to 2 weeks in WBC years.

For a sport without a salary cap, a lot of teams - big ones too - are not chasing the rainbow aggressively. The Mets and Padres are notable exceptions. And that leaves out any number of small market teams who are just pocketing competitive balance money and not doing anything.

Whether Cohen's choices are smart is one thing. But hell yeah - cannot fault an owner trying to win ... particularly in a sport where that sticks out like a sore thumb.

The WBC is great - but it'd be MUCH better served to replace the Caribbean World Series (for instance) when it goes. There are definitely flaws in the timing - and some of the injuries have been real bummers. But how the other countries react to this shows that is is good idea for the game.

I won't go too deep into the top guys - much has been written about it ... however Ceddane Rafaela - there is a "not crazy" scenario where he is the Sox' starting CF by the All Star break. It's unlikely - and as a 21 year old in AA, it would not be any sort of embarassment if it was not so. But the dreams of him feel more real than dream for others. Bryan Mata - a little more time away from TJS. Of the pitchers, he also has an exciting albeit not all that likely ceiling. Mata is a good stand-in for a number of arms in the org with wide ranges of outcomes. Do any of them create some serious optimism? Nick Yorke - ultimately his entire profile is based on his hitting. Can he get back on the positive train again? Blaze Jordan - can he stay healthy, and can his batting practice show start to make it into actual games? Miguel Bleis - listen to the discussion I posted a few days ago. He struck out A LOT. But he wasn't chasing pitches - and the contact he made was elite quality. Can he draw some more walks and command the strike zone better? It is important to temper some of the box score expectations, he is still a 19 year old in full season ball. In the before time, Bleis would have had a few reps at Lowell last season, but alas.

If you have an athletic subscription, this "Joey Votto's commentary on the Oral History of Joey Votto" is terrific https://theathletic.com/4191913/2023/02/27/joey-votto-reds-oral-history/?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

Bogaerts was not crushing AAA, but he was not bad either ... and I think the org was mostly correct deciding that he was the best available option for solving what was a truly dreadful 3B position. Just being able to adequately get on base was a big deal. Ultimately - when you compare the league perception of him as a prospect ... Bogaerts ended up being a better SS than expected, but never got into the sort of power that scouts dreamt.

I am very optimistic about the position players. Pitching? There is just such a wide range of outcomes with the sorts of pitchers the team has in the org. If one of Mata or Murphy (or insert whatever pitching prospect you want) starts to emerge more as a "mid-rotation starter" sort than a "swing/bullpen" sort, then it can really get fun. Now both Dombrowski and Bloom have been intentional about trying to get more arms into the system - but now some of those higher end outcomes need to bear fruit.

The reports on Rafaela is that the swing is fine - he has struck out a ton, but it has been more about knowing what a strike is. I think Law mentioned that Rafaela is such an overwhelmingly promising CF defensively that you hope the team does not rush his hitting development to get that glove on the field in Boston. Of course, Rafaela can solve that problem for them.

Here is Law and Longenhagen (the Fangraphs prospects guy) talking about their lists and biggest gaps ... one solid segment of it was on Bleis https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/comparing-top-100-lists-with-eric-longenhagen-and/id1499877854?i=1000601463988