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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    There is some decline in Boston - but there is also some hard floor. April numbers are tricky more generally with the weather. But the expectations matter here too. Relative to the league their attendance standing is still about where it has been the last few years.
  2. sk7326
    There are a few faulty assumptions here: 1. That the elasticity of demand is the same for every market. As you noted, the Rays have a pretty inelastic market ... winning doesn't really impact how fans treat the product. The Red Sox and Cubs ALSO have a pretty inelastic market for the opposite reasons. Opposing stars help things along, but how much really? 2. The actual Anaheim Angels are 13th in attendance. So having two elite players hasn't been a panacea. Last year, the Phillies had one of the biggest stars in the sport AND won the pennant ... but were 16th in attendance. 3. LA, San Diego and Philadelphia all have pretty serious ex ante dreams of winning it all. Nothing that has happened so far should dim their fan bases view on those team's contention. The ex ante assumptions on the Red Sox are kinda bearish and is shows.
  3. sk7326
    Sale made a great step yesterday. Really since 2019, he is still the strikeout pitcher he has always been ... but his mistakes get hit very very hard.
  4. sk7326
    So far he has lived up to the skeptic - certainly does a good job controlling the strike zone for now ... but if he doesn't start actually hitting line drives, teams will stop allowing him to take pitches
  5. sk7326
    I think they thought Bogaerts would come back! Or more to the point - I think they were caught flatfooted by the market for Bogaerts (a 30-year old good not great bat who was not likely to stay at SS through the next contract). One thing that has been true about Bloom in Boston is that considering Tampa has built their machine around run prevention - the Red Sox have seemed remarkably indifferent to their team defense.
  6. sk7326
    Pen has been excellent - particularly considering how little help they are getting from the rotation and defense.
  7. sk7326
    Since they won the World Series, Sale has just had real trouble keeping the ball in the yard.
  8. sk7326
    Tampa is very good. Looking at the opponents and whatnot, I think 5-7 is not something I love ... but I also kinda think the starters will get better (or they really can't be much worse). Now, Sale might just be this guy - which is kind of scary to think about - but I'm not there quite yet.
  9. sk7326
    Honestly, I'm a bit heartened by the start. The team is scoring easier than I expected. The defense is bad - but we knew that. The bullpen has largely been pretty good considering the horrific starting pitching. There is still upside - but it depends on the starting pitching in general rising up to acceptable.
  10. sk7326
    At the end of the day Pivetta is Pivetta - he can go on heaters, he can go on serious slumps ... but he will always be available. It's still the smart play that he will be a dude in the middle.
  11. sk7326
    The thing that has been surprising about Bloom more generally has been a fairly blase view of the run prevention more generally. Now some of this is home park related no doubt - in Tampa, where your home field is place fly balls go to die, that enables a certain approach. But the team has not spent much on top shelf pitching, while generally not being able to field a quality defensive team. That is not awesome. Now, Bloom tried to help the defense by signing Story. But even then 2022 it was a below average defensive team.
  12. sk7326
    MLB replaced the most boring play in baseball with one of the most exciting. Let's keep it that way!
  13. sk7326
    The rotation has a bit of a higher floor with Kluber, the several starts we get from Sale before he gets tears his wrist while flipping an omelet. It's a slow start for sure - and with the defense the team is putting out there, there is nowhere for the pitching to hide. One of the things to watch all season is the BABIP. .403 won't last ... but let's put it this way ... the 2015 Royals, this group of fielders isn't.
  14. sk7326
    If the team keeps scoring 8 runs a game, gotta like their chances.
  15. sk7326
    I'm trying to have fun ... 160-2 is still a great season,
  16. sk7326
    Hey - Sale went a full start without being kidnapped and being forced to knit T-shirts in bangladesh for 17 cents an hour. So that's a positive!
  17. sk7326
    Still on the same pace as the 2021 team!
  18. sk7326
    Yeah. From my understanding - the big problem with the system in its AFL incarnation was that it simply was not calling enough strikes.
  19. sk7326
    This is where the rule changes were necessary ... "analytics" is about optimizing results given the context. You're not going to stop analytics the way you can't stop any other form of "trying to win". So - change the context! The limit on throws to first for instance ... the sport decided to eliminate one of the most boring plays (the throw to first) to incentivize one of the most fun ones (stolen bases). Analytics will have to catch up ... but I appreciate baseball attemtping to shake up the equation.
  20. sk7326
    We're repeating the path to the 2021 ALCS!
  21. sk7326
    Well - considering what happened last time we opened up at home against the Orioles ... should take this as a good sign.
  22. sk7326
    Okay new guy - time to be a hero
  23. sk7326
    Yes - especially since you have to account for the possibility that Sale gets attacked by locusts in the 2nd inning of his start.
  24. sk7326
    This has a chance to be the league's worst defensive OF.
  25. sk7326
    I will say Chaim is on the block. Henry has actually been fairly predictable - when fans get mad at him, he will swing the axe. It is almost all straight public pressure. The 3 GMs he let go previously all did exactly what he wanted them to do for the most part.
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