sk7326

I actually think the race has very little to do with it here. Betts was the most talented player the team has had since Williams and a real triumph for the scouting and development group. I don't think they would run from that. I think it's much more fundamental - the franchise has largely been VERY reflexive about seasons that were not amazing. The 2010-2012 stretch was the most latent of these examples ... but the 2018-2022 one is up there. Interestingly, the "coolest heads" the team has been after a disappointing season was the 2006-7 offseason and that still involved their GM leaving the team. Now the wounds are sated a bit - he team has clearly had an amazing record turning its playoff appearances into champioships - but there has been a lot of volatility. It is hard not to read the Betts trade in part as ownership's hissy fit because the team did not repeat in 2019. Really the darkly funny part is the team not being able to show Betts the giant bag after cheerfully re-upping Sale, a deal which looked dicey the second the ink was dry.

The questions I have about the big market is less about FA and whatever - the Sox are not the only ownership who treat the tax limit like a hard cap. That was the whole point of the lockout after all. But are the Red Sox pouring money into the areas that are NOT subject to those limits - the analytics staff and the scouting and development budget. The Dodgers advantage is not that they can sign whatever player they want. (and I'll use the Dodgers since the Red Sox as a market - considering size, loyalty and pockets of fan base, owning media - is much more analogous to them than the Astros) But their machine is built because they have found and developed players - even without premium draft picks.

We will see what happens - right now the only star in the system is Mayer and he is very very far away. But there is more pitching in the organization than in years, though again the #2 starter or above sorts are still wanting. I do think we see some of the his philosophy at work in the amateur choices. The club is counting on being able to teach getting into one's power - Yorke and Romero are both middle infielders with strong hit tools who did not really show much power. Amd it does make sense. The Dodgers (of course the development staff built from Tampa) have had a lot of success reshaping players swings to get more lift.

I think when you get to a certain $$ level - it really has more to do with ownership. Ownership asked Cherington to get the top available position player FAs in a particular offseason and he did - they were both extremely high risk but the boss wants you to do it, you do whatever. For the most part the Sox GMs have all done pretty good jobs within the framework of what ownership asked of them.

Now - I agree with you. But the Dodgers are using the same spreadsheets the Rays do. It ain't the spreadsheets - it's leveraging the money hammer.

I think given their budgetary priorities (priorities of their choosing), the baseball ops did a good job with Betts trade. I am also happy to question the premise of the former to a degree - and the 2019 Sox were in a slightly tougher position to deal Betts and offer that extra control. But as of this second - the trade can be seen as Betts for Verdugo and the start of Trevor Story's post-prime which is quite the sad trombone noise.

Who is running the Dodgers?

I think the options were very small on the Mookie deal particularly once the team decided that moving Price was a key part of it. The trade was good considering it was "The David Price Salary Dump featuring Mookie Betts". But they did not really handle the Betts as a trade chip particularly well relative to the massive haul the Nats got for a great but inferior player. That said, there is an extra year of control with Soto which is very important. It is hard not to have a tear roll down the cheek when you realize that the team dealt Mookie Betts in exchange for precisely zero All-Star upside.

I think this is a little dramatic. More than anything though, there are real questions about exactly "What are We Trying to Accomplish Here" as an organization which is very hard to suss right now.

Too bad. Bradley won't be making the Red Sox HoF, but he has more ALCS MVPs than most people on earth. He was a terrific outfielder who provided JUST enough offense - usually through about a month worth of tantalizing hot streaks a season - to be a solid starting CF. But the bat died and got mutilated beyond any sort of utility and this is what you get.

Maybe - but pitch calling still comes down to what the pitcher is comfortable throwing. I think that is still a bit opaque fans. It's also possible the pitchers are just not that good. The pitchers looked fine last season.

Flags fly forever - and Vazquez is taking a position they had from "terrible" to "not terrible" ... for a team like that, differences are on the margins ...

2021 was a bad season compared to most since he has been a starter. He likely won't hit 20 HRs ever - that was a fluke for sure. But he has put the ball in play enough to allow the rest of his game to play. He's nothing special - but the Astros were getting nothing from the position so it is a terrific pickup for them considering the price.

I think you were basically right about 2022 - the team had a lot of luck with health and so on. Now, it was an excellent FA class and the Red Sox did get a piece of it ... now Story has not been very good (relative to the purchase price) and that has been a problem. The team needed a lot of plausible maybes to come through (like 2014 and 2015 actually) and they largely haven't. Basically, the positions where most teams get production, the Red Sox have gotten basically nothing ... and the pitching injuries just exacerbated it.

The Astros has gotten basically nothing from C and 1B, and Vazquez will be a big help there. Maldonado has more power for sure ... but Vazquez has gotten pretty solid results from simply having a good approach and making a lot of contact.

I won't overthink the rankings. But Abreu has a cannon arm in RF and while there is a very wide range of outcomes - a solid starting RF outcome is certainly possible, and that would be a win for renting out Vazquez. The other dude has been so productive that you can't ignore it - but Marwin Gonzalez feels like a high end outcome.

At the time he signed it, Bradley was a better player simply by playing a more valuable position.

Abreu seems like the prize of the trade - though both guys are interesting.

Players will go for where they get paid - and then secondary factors (chance to win, nice place to live). Hosmer has not been a 2-win player since 2018. I think this is a good pickup in that the Red Sox had jack squat and now they have an above replacement level body even if he is not good.

$13M is closer to what he is actually worth as a player. Basically the deal comes down to whether Jay Groome is good or not ... the Sox got a couple of prospects of some level of decent and the Padres basically threw in Hosmer (who is an average major league 1B) for free.

it is a mutual option at $6M ... so Pham might turn it down ... but I think there is a decent chance both sides are okay with going forward

Pham looks like Babe Ruth compared to the non-Verdugo incumbents in the OF. And I think there is at least a decent chance the option is picked up.

The team selling pending FAs is fine ... it hurts, but not more than being out of the race does

So that explains the low thrown out percentage!

The best way to look at it is that they traded a catcher who was headed to FA for an outfielder they have under contract for 2023. And Pham is an average regular in the OF which would make him prime Jim Rice by 2022 Red Sox OF standards. We will see what the prospect prices were in each of the deals. I feel for Vasquez - he clearly loved being a Red Sox and it is hard not to have a soft spot for a starter who was nothing but solid.