sk7326

A lot of baseball players out there and other cities that likely want teams. Easiest way to inject money into the pie. Also from a pure "running the season" perspective, 32 teams creates some better playoff options.

They have been steamrolled the last couple of go-rounds and they seem more aware of that this time. I do think they naively did not expect baseball at large to treat it as an actual hard cap.

You are not wrong - I see it as a both/and deal, that's all.

I think the upper limit should go up at a much higher rate than "less than the cost of living" ... I think the players would (and should) see a one time increase in the cap as effectively buying time before the owners' collective miserly ways come back.

When Justice Sotomayor saved baseball in her previous life, it happened on March 29 ... and the league was able to execute a 144 game season with a normal playoff. Judging by that, we still have another 2ish weeks or so where we can get a 162 game season. The almost certain added tier of playoffs likely will make getting 162 in a lot harder if there is much more dawdling that that.

Expanded playoffs is happening - players want 12, owners want 14 - I prefer 12. The tiers are all wrong and should be indexed to some fixed percentage of agreed upon "value". It could be all revenue with some allowance for stadium-related debt or whatever. The minimum salary should be pegged the same way. As mvp noted, a justifiable upper limit based on actual revenue growth is much closer to $320M than $240. Players should get 1 months salary guaranteed if they spend a day in the majors. (with an 850,000 minimum, that is about 140K) Players receive the smallest share of the pie relative to the other American sports and while this goes some ways to remedy that, it's still going to be last. And yes, it's not on the table right now but the union should be pushing to add 2 teams.

I think it might not even be that - like having a threshold might be fine ... but you have to peg it to some agreed-upon definition of net revenue. If you don't do that - then you are decoupling player salaries from the growth of the game. That's the thing with the salary cap sports ... for better or for worse, it guarantees the players a slice of a mutually agreed upon pie. The players have neither of those things at the moment.

Right - the other leagues have forms of restricted free agency ... which I think is much preferable to arbitration, even if the incumbent team has a right to match.

I think they want to recoup some of the losses. But there is a LOT of water carrying for the owners here - in particular, where he opines that the MLB players have the best CBA in pro sports when their CBA is also the only one where the players do not get a guaranteed share of the pie.

They should pretty clearly peg the threshhold to some sort of revenue percentage ... but that would demand the players can verify what is coming in.

I'm a subscriber so go ahead

This was interesting ... Freedman is a labor lawyer, and has been writing about the situation.

One thing worth noting is that the majority of the writers are going to be mouthpieces for ownership here. Bowden, John Heyman the worst. Remember, the owners are the ones who pulled the plug on things.

I do feel you there - it is worth noting that it's the owners who precipitated this ... I generally sympathize with the players on multiple levels - particularly that they are the ones who like baseball. (more than even I do)

I dunno - TV money is going up ... fans still show up, though a bit more regionally

They are separate business decisions.

Now, I do think there has been progress. The players are okay with expanding the playoffs. The owners are receptive to the idea of a Pre Arb bonus general fund. Now, owners have been VERY slow in negotiating with the players - but starting at your phone during a negotiating session is not negotiating in bad faith by NLRB lingo - not having the meetings at all is. Deadlines that cost people money will drive progress. It's a matter of how much ownership is willing to give - after all, they are the ones who precipitated the stoppage. The players are correct that increasing the competitive balance task as the industry is getting an influx of cash from the media partners is not bueno. If I were the union (I clearly am not) - a $1M annual minimum salary (pegged to industry revenue), a 2 month minimum salary for any player called up, universal DH and adding two teams would probably be worth expanding the playoffs to 12 teams and increasing the competitive balance tax (though the tiers should also be pegged to revenue).

I'll post anything McDaniel does on ESPN+ if/when I find it on org specific stuff.

Who knows - as noted above, Law, McDaniel at ESPN, Longenhagen at Fangraphs actually go see these guys play ... the 2021 prospects list was obviously an aberration ... usually they've had at least one look at the player on top of some of the "scouting world" cross checking. the other thing is just general preferences. Like, Sox Prospects might value guys who look like 4A players than other outlets that are going to place a toolsy guy with a lower hit rate. And of course, if you believe a guy can get to the majors as a shortstop - he's going to be in your top 10-12. Full disclosure: Law has answered questions I've had on Twitter before ... he invites a lot of questions from readers about this stuff.

The cap keeps salaries down ... NOW, the way the cap has been implemented in other sports has been better for the players than the current deal is for major league players. First, there is a salary floor. The NBA basically has a 48-52% cut of (whatever the agreed upon pool of money is) the pie. It usually amounts to 52%. Escrow payments withheld from player checks are collected, used to settle the books at the end of the season. The players get refunded whatever money is not used. So, if player contracts result in 54% of the pie went to player salaries ... 5.4% of the pie was collected in escrow during the season (48.6% players, 5.4% escrow, 46% owners). 2% is paid to make the owners whole and the remaining 3.4% gets refunded. Teams that are below the floor have to prorate up the players salaries up to the floor. Second, there are numerous mechanisms to soften the cap. The NBA has the various and sundry exceptions that allow teams over the cap to operate ... the NFL allows you to amortize bonuses, so a $10M cash payment can be have the cap hit spread over the life of the contract. Third, the NBA and NHL have individual salary maximums based on service time - so the superstars are taking a haircut to fund the middle class. The big thing though is that the salary cap can give both players and owners equal incentives for the industry to thrive. Right now, with the luxury tax limits, the players are getting all the bad parts of salary cap life and none of the perks. With the current dispute - I think if the players focused on the bottom of the ladder ... get drastic minimum salary increases and make it much harder for owners to manipulate service time. (idea: any player promoted to the bigs gets a minimum of 2 months of major league salary regardless of how long he stays up). If the union can build up the starting points - then all of those other areas (arb, FA) will go up over time.

Jordan has to like, actually play baseball games.

Keith Law's Deep Dive on the Sox farm: https://theathletic.com/3127620/2022/02/15/red-sox-top-20-prospects-for-2022-keith-law-ranks-bostons-farm-system/ 1. Marcelo Mayer (#18 overall) 2. Nick Yorke (#37 overall) 3. Triston Casas (#56 overall) 4. Brayan Bello (#86 overall) 5. Jeter Downs 6. Jarren Duran 7. Jay Groome 8. Brandon Walter 9. Matt Lugo 10. Bryan Mata Rest of Top 20 (fair use of article, I'm editing don the blurbs to key points) 11. Chris Murphy - velocity has improved, up to 96. Death on left-handed hitters, but righties were a problem (all 21 homeruns he gave up at Greenville to righties). If he can get out righties viably, he is a 4th starter sort, or he's a lefty bullpen weapon 12. Gilberto Jimenez - Sox surprised by not adding him to 40, but the tools have not turned into performance. He has gotten a little bigger and is not an 80 runner anymore though still CF profile. Makes lots of contact, needs to make better choices about what to swing at. Too young to quit on, but a team taking him in Rule 5 is a bad idea for his development. 13. Blaze Jordan - Got off to a great start, but illness ended his season early. Power starting to appear in games, not just BP. 1B more likely than 3B. Real candidate to make a leap this year. 14. Thad Ward - TJS. Showed some good stuff before then 92-96, good slider, changeup viable. Back end starter possiibilties. 15. Ronaldo Hernandez - Good power, but swings at everything and doesn't make enough contact. Below average receiver, though automated strike zone will help him. 16. Alex Binelas - Came in Renfroe trade. 70 Power but struck out a ton in Louisville. Contact rates were better in his Low-A sojourn despite better competition and wood bats. Profiles at 1B - promising if the approach catches up. 17. Wilkelman Gonzalez - Athletic, smaller frame, but 93-94 who has flashed 97 with a good curve and usable changeup. Low arm slot, arm action if all over the place. But raw materials are promising. 18. Brainer Bonaci - only 19. Switch hitting SS still filling out, but looks like he will be able to stay at SS. Power more gap to gap doubles variety. Should start at Salem. 19. Connor Seabold - Plus changeup, fringy everything else and command is not good enough. Could be interesting as a reliever if velocity ticked up though. 20. Ceddanne Raefela - moved to CF, and showed plus defense there immediately. 5'8" but with some strength and good plate coverage. Others Chih-Jung Liu, Nick Decker, Christian Koss , Durbin Feltman Noah Song can't be discussed until he gets off a boat

Kiley McDaniel (ESPN) Top 100 prospects ... again (as noted above) one of the analysts who does watch the guys 22. Marcelo Mayer 46. Triston Casas 47. Nick Yorke

In addition to the Top 100, two Red Sox on the "just missed", though the red flags are concerning Jeter Downs Jarren Duran