sk7326

They are separate business decisions.

Now, I do think there has been progress. The players are okay with expanding the playoffs. The owners are receptive to the idea of a Pre Arb bonus general fund. Now, owners have been VERY slow in negotiating with the players - but starting at your phone during a negotiating session is not negotiating in bad faith by NLRB lingo - not having the meetings at all is. Deadlines that cost people money will drive progress. It's a matter of how much ownership is willing to give - after all, they are the ones who precipitated the stoppage. The players are correct that increasing the competitive balance task as the industry is getting an influx of cash from the media partners is not bueno. If I were the union (I clearly am not) - a $1M annual minimum salary (pegged to industry revenue), a 2 month minimum salary for any player called up, universal DH and adding two teams would probably be worth expanding the playoffs to 12 teams and increasing the competitive balance tax (though the tiers should also be pegged to revenue).

I'll post anything McDaniel does on ESPN+ if/when I find it on org specific stuff.

Who knows - as noted above, Law, McDaniel at ESPN, Longenhagen at Fangraphs actually go see these guys play ... the 2021 prospects list was obviously an aberration ... usually they've had at least one look at the player on top of some of the "scouting world" cross checking. the other thing is just general preferences. Like, Sox Prospects might value guys who look like 4A players than other outlets that are going to place a toolsy guy with a lower hit rate. And of course, if you believe a guy can get to the majors as a shortstop - he's going to be in your top 10-12. Full disclosure: Law has answered questions I've had on Twitter before ... he invites a lot of questions from readers about this stuff.

The cap keeps salaries down ... NOW, the way the cap has been implemented in other sports has been better for the players than the current deal is for major league players. First, there is a salary floor. The NBA basically has a 48-52% cut of (whatever the agreed upon pool of money is) the pie. It usually amounts to 52%. Escrow payments withheld from player checks are collected, used to settle the books at the end of the season. The players get refunded whatever money is not used. So, if player contracts result in 54% of the pie went to player salaries ... 5.4% of the pie was collected in escrow during the season (48.6% players, 5.4% escrow, 46% owners). 2% is paid to make the owners whole and the remaining 3.4% gets refunded. Teams that are below the floor have to prorate up the players salaries up to the floor. Second, there are numerous mechanisms to soften the cap. The NBA has the various and sundry exceptions that allow teams over the cap to operate ... the NFL allows you to amortize bonuses, so a $10M cash payment can be have the cap hit spread over the life of the contract. Third, the NBA and NHL have individual salary maximums based on service time - so the superstars are taking a haircut to fund the middle class. The big thing though is that the salary cap can give both players and owners equal incentives for the industry to thrive. Right now, with the luxury tax limits, the players are getting all the bad parts of salary cap life and none of the perks. With the current dispute - I think if the players focused on the bottom of the ladder ... get drastic minimum salary increases and make it much harder for owners to manipulate service time. (idea: any player promoted to the bigs gets a minimum of 2 months of major league salary regardless of how long he stays up). If the union can build up the starting points - then all of those other areas (arb, FA) will go up over time.

Jordan has to like, actually play baseball games.

Keith Law's Deep Dive on the Sox farm: https://theathletic.com/3127620/2022/02/15/red-sox-top-20-prospects-for-2022-keith-law-ranks-bostons-farm-system/ 1. Marcelo Mayer (#18 overall) 2. Nick Yorke (#37 overall) 3. Triston Casas (#56 overall) 4. Brayan Bello (#86 overall) 5. Jeter Downs 6. Jarren Duran 7. Jay Groome 8. Brandon Walter 9. Matt Lugo 10. Bryan Mata Rest of Top 20 (fair use of article, I'm editing don the blurbs to key points) 11. Chris Murphy - velocity has improved, up to 96. Death on left-handed hitters, but righties were a problem (all 21 homeruns he gave up at Greenville to righties). If he can get out righties viably, he is a 4th starter sort, or he's a lefty bullpen weapon 12. Gilberto Jimenez - Sox surprised by not adding him to 40, but the tools have not turned into performance. He has gotten a little bigger and is not an 80 runner anymore though still CF profile. Makes lots of contact, needs to make better choices about what to swing at. Too young to quit on, but a team taking him in Rule 5 is a bad idea for his development. 13. Blaze Jordan - Got off to a great start, but illness ended his season early. Power starting to appear in games, not just BP. 1B more likely than 3B. Real candidate to make a leap this year. 14. Thad Ward - TJS. Showed some good stuff before then 92-96, good slider, changeup viable. Back end starter possiibilties. 15. Ronaldo Hernandez - Good power, but swings at everything and doesn't make enough contact. Below average receiver, though automated strike zone will help him. 16. Alex Binelas - Came in Renfroe trade. 70 Power but struck out a ton in Louisville. Contact rates were better in his Low-A sojourn despite better competition and wood bats. Profiles at 1B - promising if the approach catches up. 17. Wilkelman Gonzalez - Athletic, smaller frame, but 93-94 who has flashed 97 with a good curve and usable changeup. Low arm slot, arm action if all over the place. But raw materials are promising. 18. Brainer Bonaci - only 19. Switch hitting SS still filling out, but looks like he will be able to stay at SS. Power more gap to gap doubles variety. Should start at Salem. 19. Connor Seabold - Plus changeup, fringy everything else and command is not good enough. Could be interesting as a reliever if velocity ticked up though. 20. Ceddanne Raefela - moved to CF, and showed plus defense there immediately. 5'8" but with some strength and good plate coverage. Others Chih-Jung Liu, Nick Decker, Christian Koss , Durbin Feltman Noah Song can't be discussed until he gets off a boat

Kiley McDaniel (ESPN) Top 100 prospects ... again (as noted above) one of the analysts who does watch the guys 22. Marcelo Mayer 46. Triston Casas 47. Nick Yorke

In addition to the Top 100, two Red Sox on the "just missed", though the red flags are concerning Jeter Downs Jarren Duran

Law's words about the Red Sox ranking (I'll post the full writeup when it pops up 2morrow) 20. Boston Red Sox Last year: No. 20 https://theathletic.com/3112765/2022/02/07/mlb-2022-farm-system-rankings-keith-law-grades-all-30-teams-on-prospects-with-the-dodgers-at-no-1/

Hard to say. He has always been a big fan of the Epstein administration and admires the current one. The thing listening to his podcast is that he points out that you should take his rankings with a grain of salt - there is always going to be a wall between what can be known publicly. But he does note that Baseball America, MLB.com, Fangraphs and ESPN, all get to actually see the players they rank. It's not statistical analysis or writing down what coaches say. It's also worth noting that the lifestyle associated with working for The Athletic or ESPN - just from "quality of work/life balance and money" could outweigh a scouting gig, even a high level one. Law has noted that his evaluations tend to favor ceiling somewhat in the "ceiling vs probability" equation.

No - violating is posting a paywalled article in its entirety.

I will admit the pandemic got me very into the Premier League. The thing with soccer games are that they are short and very consistent - 45 minutes without stoppages, a quick halftime and then 45 more minutes, you're done in 2 hours. The entertainment level varies a lot by team (Liverpool is extremely entertaining) but it's hard not to get into it when the fans get it going. Cricket is like baseball except with 1 inning (for the IPL format) with 120 pitch limit.

Seriously ... "launch a live arm firehose" is still the best approach for building a bullpen. Results year to year are SO volaile ... every organism with 2 major league caliber pitches, come on down!

You started in 2000, which is great ... but if you're assembling a list like this, 1999 seems close enough to note ... where Pedro put up a staggering 11.6 fWAR and Nomar had 6.3 for good measure. Pedro's 11.6 fWAR was more than the next 9 pitchers on that staff combined.

I like the video replay. Though MLB will adopt automated balls and strikes NLT 2024, so I don't worry too much on THAT. I am incredibly intrigued by the Power Play rule in ODI - where basically the fielders have to play "in" for the first and last bit of the match. I don't believe in outlawing shifts the whole game for sure.

This is sorta true. The legacy match for cricket is the 5-day Test Match BUT the official World Cup are a series of one-day matches ... each match takes 6 hours And the top professional league in the world (the India Premier League) is a T20 league ... 20 overs (120 balls) per side. That fit within the 3 hour TV window. Cricket is actively trying to catch on in that way. There is a certain purist joy in the 5-day match, but the sports knows the T20 matches are the ones which are going to sell.

For now, I'd probably go production overall as a Red Sox - this is backwards looking after all. And his extremely central role in the 2013 title counts. (not that Sale is bad, but postseasonwise the resumes differ)

You'd see national broadcasts without announcers who keep complaining that the game has not been the same since the Reserve Clause was outlawed. Let's put it this way - FOX put a ton of energy and ad hype into the Fields of Corn game. And people watched! And it was cool for what it was! But they don't put that effort into celebrating today's game and players - not at all.

Length of service has to matter in terms of "best Sox" - though Sale is absolutely a better pitcher. For that matter, in 2007 so was Josh Beckett.

It's popular regionally - sadly in its way like baseball in that way. Baseball's biggest problems on the field I think is: 1. Not blaming analytics PER SE, but the results (mathematically correct) leading to a game where fewer balls are put in play than ever before. 2. Pace of play-ish, but the real answer is to shorten ad breaks and that's not happening. Otherwise, the biggest problem is that the game is presently being run and marketed by people who don't like baseball and baseball players.

I've been a Sox fan since 1986 ... pretty clearly Roger and Pedro are the two best pitchers the franchise has had in that interim. For 3rd place ... it's gotta be Lester, right? Beckett had that one marvelous season, but that was about it.

Operating costs determine minimums for sure - but given that owners are just going to charge what the fans will pay, full stop. And - all of these teams are swimming in cash anyway. The "operating cost" side of it is largely a non-issue. Like, the Pirates can afford their payroll without selling a ticket. (between competitive balance payments and share of the national media deals)

There is a ton of money going into the machine. Right now, the players get all the downsides of the salary cap without any of the benefits other sports have - a guaranteed slice of the pie. But yes, the changes the players should be seeking are at the bottom of the pay scale. You hint at some of the good ones. - Raise the minimum salary to at least $1M a year. You raise the minimum then the other pre-FA salaries will react accordingly. - Any player who spends a day on a major league roster (ahead of the Sep 1 roster expansion) receives 1 months salary. - Change service time to a season or month formula so teams are not manipulating service time by days. - Universal DH. It's more jobs! The owners want a 16 team playoff - so there is some trade space here.

Probably Bradley. 2013 Ellsbury was outstanding - the metrics were certainly competitive with peak JBJ seasons - but the man was never healthy. And Damon probably deserves to be celebrated more defensively than I did in my original rumination, considering he basically had to play the entire outfield by himself given that he had Kevin Millar and Manny being Manny on either side of him.