sk7326

we just had a season that started a week late and nothing happened. So this is not splitting the atom or anything.

The rule changes are promising so far. I actually even kinda-sorta-grudgingly understand the ghost runner and trying to limit super long games.

He doesn't have to hit 20 HRs - just has to be able to punish mistakes enough that pitchers are actually careful about making them. A good batting eye isn't all that helpful if the pitcher doesn't fear putting one down the middle.

Usual SSS caveats apply - but if he can get to enough hard contact, he's going to be an on-base machine.

Take one MLB sanctioned cash cow and replace it with a bigger one!

That is entirely about the nature of the sport. Just look at the spread in records. In baseball, the a team's best player at its most important position will end up only playing about 13% of the time! And of course it is a sport where a positive offensive outcome takes place about 32% of the time. It has always been the most noisy playoff statistically. In the NBA the best players are on the floor anywhere between 70% to 100% of the time depending on the game. The sport has never had a lot of turnover - in most years it has been an oligopoly. The cap's purpose was to limit spending. What has happened in baseball though is that the current system has given the players all of the downsides of the salary cap with none of the positives. In the NBA, the players get a look at the owner's books and a guaranteed % of revenue. Let's put it this way - I did a back of the envelope sort of calculation once ... if baseball had a salary cap like the NBA, the Pirates and Marlins would have a payroll around $150M.

Another option I think would be fun would be to just cancel the All Star game and extend the Break to 2 weeks in WBC years.

For a sport without a salary cap, a lot of teams - big ones too - are not chasing the rainbow aggressively. The Mets and Padres are notable exceptions. And that leaves out any number of small market teams who are just pocketing competitive balance money and not doing anything.

Whether Cohen's choices are smart is one thing. But hell yeah - cannot fault an owner trying to win ... particularly in a sport where that sticks out like a sore thumb.

The WBC is great - but it'd be MUCH better served to replace the Caribbean World Series (for instance) when it goes. There are definitely flaws in the timing - and some of the injuries have been real bummers. But how the other countries react to this shows that is is good idea for the game.

I won't go too deep into the top guys - much has been written about it ... however Ceddane Rafaela - there is a "not crazy" scenario where he is the Sox' starting CF by the All Star break. It's unlikely - and as a 21 year old in AA, it would not be any sort of embarassment if it was not so. But the dreams of him feel more real than dream for others. Bryan Mata - a little more time away from TJS. Of the pitchers, he also has an exciting albeit not all that likely ceiling. Mata is a good stand-in for a number of arms in the org with wide ranges of outcomes. Do any of them create some serious optimism? Nick Yorke - ultimately his entire profile is based on his hitting. Can he get back on the positive train again? Blaze Jordan - can he stay healthy, and can his batting practice show start to make it into actual games? Miguel Bleis - listen to the discussion I posted a few days ago. He struck out A LOT. But he wasn't chasing pitches - and the contact he made was elite quality. Can he draw some more walks and command the strike zone better? It is important to temper some of the box score expectations, he is still a 19 year old in full season ball. In the before time, Bleis would have had a few reps at Lowell last season, but alas.

If you have an athletic subscription, this "Joey Votto's commentary on the Oral History of Joey Votto" is terrific https://theathletic.com/4191913/2023/02/27/joey-votto-reds-oral-history/?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

Bogaerts was not crushing AAA, but he was not bad either ... and I think the org was mostly correct deciding that he was the best available option for solving what was a truly dreadful 3B position. Just being able to adequately get on base was a big deal. Ultimately - when you compare the league perception of him as a prospect ... Bogaerts ended up being a better SS than expected, but never got into the sort of power that scouts dreamt.

I am very optimistic about the position players. Pitching? There is just such a wide range of outcomes with the sorts of pitchers the team has in the org. If one of Mata or Murphy (or insert whatever pitching prospect you want) starts to emerge more as a "mid-rotation starter" sort than a "swing/bullpen" sort, then it can really get fun. Now both Dombrowski and Bloom have been intentional about trying to get more arms into the system - but now some of those higher end outcomes need to bear fruit.

The reports on Rafaela is that the swing is fine - he has struck out a ton, but it has been more about knowing what a strike is. I think Law mentioned that Rafaela is such an overwhelmingly promising CF defensively that you hope the team does not rush his hitting development to get that glove on the field in Boston. Of course, Rafaela can solve that problem for them.

Here is Law and Longenhagen (the Fangraphs prospects guy) talking about their lists and biggest gaps ... one solid segment of it was on Bleis https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/comparing-top-100-lists-with-eric-longenhagen-and/id1499877854?i=1000601463988

Mike Napoli, 2013 ... 3.7 bWAR

I'm not sure any of the pitchers will top 120 IP this season - well, besides Pivetta

1. Fun trivia (don't go to ESPN site) - who was the last Red Sox 1B to put up >= 3 wins above replacement in a season? 2. Casas, Bello, Whitlock will be fun. Yoshida is fun just as a mystery. The REAL fun would be is Rafaela did enough to get a call up before September.

Sure - that said Whitlock was a triumph of pro scouting!

As someone who roots for Liverpool (Salah!), FSG is accused of being cheapskates.

Contracts at that level are always ownership's call. Yes the GM can be a company man - but ultimately owners are largely not giving unchecked spending authorities on amounts that high.

I am ... for now ...

I think Sale just broke his nose during pitcher fielding practice.

Groome fell entirely because of signability.