sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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I was all for bringing Nate back - there were a ton of asterisks (health, etc) but he had a lot more ceiling than most of the other dumpster diving signees.
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DeGrom is the best pitcher to switch teams - but I do understand a team not wanting to offer him 5 years with his injury history
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Yeah - ultimately the adjustment that really has to happen is our talented pitchers have to be available and pitch better.
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Looking at the list of actual free agents - it would have been nice to land Verlander (though of course, he is hurt at the moment). And of course Carlos Rodon is hurt now. That said, there were plenty of solid veterans who signed for short hitches (and yes, I'd include Eovaldi who I'd have brought back considering the price) that the Sox could have done alright.
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The thing about Price at the time was that he was a innings eating monster whose arm summarily fell off after he joined the Sox. And it shows how little we know about the physiology. How does that happen to Price while Lester, who ALSO was an innings workhorse, basically never stopped being one until the very very end of his career.
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I am less puzzled. There was some calculated bets on Kluber and Sale's okayness that have way not hit so far. For what its worth, both Wacha and Eovaldi have been uninspired so far. I am still somewhat optimistic about Whitlock at least being average - though the lack of strikeouts is not a pleasant indicator. (on top of the stuff allowed of course)
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Going to baseball reference's value over replacement by position ... the team ranks compared to last year OVERALL: 17th (22nd in 2022) Pitching Overall: 23rd (19th in 2022) Starting Pitching: 29th (15th in 2022) Bullpen: 7th (26th in 2022) Catcher: 7th (13th in 2022) First Base: 29th (22nd in 2022) Second Base: 28th (16th in 2022) Third Base: 3rd (7th in 2022) Shortstop: 23rd (4th in 2022) Left Field: 12th (25th in 2022) Center Field: 4th (27th in 2022) Right Field: 2nd (23rd in 2022) Outfield Overall: 2nd (28th in 2022) DH: 11th (20th in 2022) Basically we have gotten some huge upgrades in the outfield and bullpen, but they have been eaten up by the leaking oil on the infield and the starting rotation.
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They can try anything. But Ohtani will stay West. Whether that is a SoCal team or the Mariners flying in off the top rope, I don't know.
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Considering what the starters have done, 10th/7th for the bullpen is an excellent result. Seriously - if the team could just get quality innings, this season could actually be something.
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There is some decline in Boston - but there is also some hard floor. April numbers are tricky more generally with the weather. But the expectations matter here too. Relative to the league their attendance standing is still about where it has been the last few years.
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There are a few faulty assumptions here: 1. That the elasticity of demand is the same for every market. As you noted, the Rays have a pretty inelastic market ... winning doesn't really impact how fans treat the product. The Red Sox and Cubs ALSO have a pretty inelastic market for the opposite reasons. Opposing stars help things along, but how much really? 2. The actual Anaheim Angels are 13th in attendance. So having two elite players hasn't been a panacea. Last year, the Phillies had one of the biggest stars in the sport AND won the pennant ... but were 16th in attendance. 3. LA, San Diego and Philadelphia all have pretty serious ex ante dreams of winning it all. Nothing that has happened so far should dim their fan bases view on those team's contention. The ex ante assumptions on the Red Sox are kinda bearish and is shows.
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Sale made a great step yesterday. Really since 2019, he is still the strikeout pitcher he has always been ... but his mistakes get hit very very hard.
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So far he has lived up to the skeptic - certainly does a good job controlling the strike zone for now ... but if he doesn't start actually hitting line drives, teams will stop allowing him to take pitches
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I think they thought Bogaerts would come back! Or more to the point - I think they were caught flatfooted by the market for Bogaerts (a 30-year old good not great bat who was not likely to stay at SS through the next contract). One thing that has been true about Bloom in Boston is that considering Tampa has built their machine around run prevention - the Red Sox have seemed remarkably indifferent to their team defense.
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Pen has been excellent - particularly considering how little help they are getting from the rotation and defense.
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Since they won the World Series, Sale has just had real trouble keeping the ball in the yard.
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Tampa is very good. Looking at the opponents and whatnot, I think 5-7 is not something I love ... but I also kinda think the starters will get better (or they really can't be much worse). Now, Sale might just be this guy - which is kind of scary to think about - but I'm not there quite yet.
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Honestly, I'm a bit heartened by the start. The team is scoring easier than I expected. The defense is bad - but we knew that. The bullpen has largely been pretty good considering the horrific starting pitching. There is still upside - but it depends on the starting pitching in general rising up to acceptable.
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At the end of the day Pivetta is Pivetta - he can go on heaters, he can go on serious slumps ... but he will always be available. It's still the smart play that he will be a dude in the middle.
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The thing that has been surprising about Bloom more generally has been a fairly blase view of the run prevention more generally. Now some of this is home park related no doubt - in Tampa, where your home field is place fly balls go to die, that enables a certain approach. But the team has not spent much on top shelf pitching, while generally not being able to field a quality defensive team. That is not awesome. Now, Bloom tried to help the defense by signing Story. But even then 2022 it was a below average defensive team.
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MLB replaced the most boring play in baseball with one of the most exciting. Let's keep it that way!
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The rotation has a bit of a higher floor with Kluber, the several starts we get from Sale before he gets tears his wrist while flipping an omelet. It's a slow start for sure - and with the defense the team is putting out there, there is nowhere for the pitching to hide. One of the things to watch all season is the BABIP. .403 won't last ... but let's put it this way ... the 2015 Royals, this group of fielders isn't.
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If the team keeps scoring 8 runs a game, gotta like their chances.
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I'm trying to have fun ... 160-2 is still a great season,
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Hey - Sale went a full start without being kidnapped and being forced to knit T-shirts in bangladesh for 17 cents an hour. So that's a positive!