sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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the problem with Pivetta is he is capable of throwing in a 2-3 start stretch (particularly with better opposition) where it looks like he has never pitched before.
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2023 MLB Draft
sk7326 replied to sk7326's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
ESPN's mock 2.0 - Kiley McDaniel -
The thing about Pivetta is that he could go on a 5 start heater ... he is a #5 starter, but one whose upside outcomes are better than most
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Yeah. The big problem last year was the Sox were getting nothing out of positions that should be high octane offensive ones (1B, outfield corners). There has been improvement on all three, even at first base where Casas is getting on base enough to keep the floor up.
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I guess trading him is possible. But the one thing about rookies is that they are (for the most part) bad. It's why you play them. And Casas has been getting better - and he is getting on base enough to maybe get to the good stuff.
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One thing is that salaries are (generally) negatively correlated with age. And so if you can capture some cheap cost controlled lightning - you can get something great. The challenge for a team like Tampa is you ALWAYS have to be cycling through.
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The good news is that all of the Statcast batted ball data is also pointing in the good direction maxEV -> 112 from 110 launch angle from 7.6 to 9.4 Barrel rate from down 7.7 to 6.3 Hard hit rate up 37.3 to 44.9 So the barrel rate is slightly down - but he is doing the things you want to see that should lead to offensive success. All of the 2023 numbers are up from 2021, where you could cite some flukage.
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I think it's probably #1 and #2, though #2 is not so bad. The team has - for the most part -not been in positions to draft high ceiling, lower risk pitching. But no, they have not made their luck too much either.
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Maybe. Whitlock's development is the encouraging one - if he can stick as a starter that is a major win. Bello looks like a #2/#3 starter for real. Houck I think is the same as he ever was. Unless he can consistently handle left handed hitters, the impact will always be limited. The remarkable thing is that the pitching staff looks ... (ducking lightning bolt) fine?
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2023 MLB Draft
sk7326 replied to sk7326's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
The Athletic Keith Law Mock Draft 2.0 (the mock drafts are reporting and intel, not a "should" pick) https://theathletic.com/4620994/2023/06/20/mlb-mock-draft-first-round-changes/ 14. Boston - Matt Shaw, SS, Maryland Taylor is Brayden Taylor, 3B, TCU Troy is Tommy Troy, SS/3B, Stanford Apparently it is a very deep crop of college bats this year - the fruits of the pandemic mini draft. -
I think Cora has done a good job MacGyvering the pitching staff ... and that is one place where you can definitely see a manager's fingerprints.
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Oops - position player. BTW: Jobe is very much a "you better be right pick" ... the attrition rate for high school pitching compared to other cohorts is frightening
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the pitching has been let down by some truly awful defense. You could see this pitching staff being at least a run better in any sort of decent run prevention environment.
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It is also noteworthy he was the first high school player taken - so the first 3 teams did run to the relative safety of college players.
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Turner should have some value as a bench/cornery bat. Agreed on Paxton. If you wanted to be ruthless - at least take calls on Devers (I'm not saying do it) Kike - though his value is as a super utility guy
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I think they have done a solid job with being patient with Casas - and Casas deserves credit for not letting his approach go to seed. He has gotten on base enough to warrant some patience. I don't know if he lifts the ball enough for the 40 HR - but 25 HRs a year with a lot of doubles? Heck yeah. But I have no issues with him so far.
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This team is roughly as good as one could have expected ex ante. The team's starting pitching looked interesting but very high variance - and they have delivered on that. The team's bullpen looked solid - and they have been solid The team's offense looked above average - and they have been a little above average and that is with a poor Devers season The team's defense looked bad - and has been every bit as bad as advertised So what you have is a totally unremarkable baseball team. Indeed, Cora has probably gotten more out of the pitching staff than I expected. The team is just not really much of an improvement over potted plants out there in the field.
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2023 MLB Draft
sk7326 replied to sk7326's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I don't think the team thinks about the position so much as where the best athletes are. The time to the majors of prospects is such that you can't draft for need - unless you are dumb. The thing is the Red Sox do seem to be trying to build a competency here - that they can teach guys with good hit tools to get into their power and lift. We will see how that goes. Like, Cleveland has developed a reputation for being able to draft these command and control college pitchers and coach up velocity. -
He'll get paid like a 6+ win player.
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There is box office appeal which helps. But yeah it is a fair question. Now it's not a Bloom question, that's a Henry one.
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Have to look at data I don't have clearly. But swings and misses are certainly not going to go down if you keep facing lots of 2 strike counts.
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Ohtani is a tough eval - but I doubt he will be a bust simply because he is such a devastating hitter. While you lose value if he can't pitch anymore - his athleticism and bat likely still keeps him as a pretty good corner OF.
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Yeah. Rafaela has been bad so far. That said - and this is the really hard part about looking at the lines and stuff for AA and below - we just don't know what the team's benchmarks are and what they are asking the players to do. From what I've read, the team is trying to do some surgery on Rafaela's approach at the plate ... and so the poor results have to be taken with a block of salt at least for now. The AAA pitchers bother me much more because the big league team is sorta counting on them being able to at least be candidates to contribute.
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Looks like a very strong one for college hitters. In particular, the impacts of the 2020 draft on high schoolers shows as a lot of guys who might have signed in a normal year went to college and are juniors now. Sox pick 14. At the Athletic, Keith Law put out his first mock draft (separate from ranking prospects - it's the intel on what front offices are likely to do) https://theathletic.com/4539593/2023/05/24/mlb-mock-draft-dylan-crews-pirates/ Names in 10-14 if you want to burrow Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Ole Miss Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest HS (Dover, FL) Colin Houch, SS, Parkview HS (Lilburn, GA) Matt Shaw, SS, Maryland We know the Red Sox under Bloom have focused on bringing in middle guys who can hit, and count on development to coach up the power and lift.
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he needs to take a pitch once or twice a week ...